Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies

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1
Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies
Brian Kelly, UK Web Focus
A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 ...

Predicting and Preparing For Emerging
Learning Technologies
CILIP West Midlands 2017 Annual Members Day, Birmingham on 10 ...

3 3
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Abstract
We continue to see developments in online services which provide
both opportunities and challenges for librarians...

Contents
Introduction
• About me
Identifying Developments
• The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries & the Delphi
process:
 W...

6
About Me
Brian Kelly
• UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013
• Innovative Advocate at Cetis from 2013-2015
• Now independ...

“Experts”
Today’s environment:
• Experts are being criticised
and growth in terms such as:
• “Post-truth”
• “Alternative f...

Predicting the Future: The Risks
Risks in attempting to predict the future:
• We get it wrong
– the future didn’t material...

Looking at the Futurologists
• Gartner report
9

Gartner
Beware vested
interests which
may be
threatened by
implications of
predictions
10
Gartner May Be Too
Scared To Say...

We commission
reports from
experts in the field
11PDF

We commission
reports from
experts in the field
12
… is an information professional who has specialized
in the fields of e...

Invention, Innovation, Improvement
From Wikipedia:
Invention: the creation of the idea or method itself.
Innovation: the u...

A Collaborative Approach
We could use Twitter
14
Tweet your ideas
with event hashtag
I think teleporting could have implic...

THE Article
Article which summarised the
“6 key trends accelerating
technology adoption in
higher education in 2015”
publi...

About the NMC Horizon Library Study
16
NMC Horizon Report, 2014:
Library edition:
• Published in Aug 2014
• Based on ideas...

NMC Panel
Panel composed of 47
library and technology
experts from 16
countries on ﬁve
continents (including 3
from UK)
17...

Short-Term Technology Trends
What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify?
18
Seven key categories were ident...

Short-Term Technology Trends
Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to
adoption) were identified and prioritis...

What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!):
• What significant learning technology trends do you
...

Medium-Term Drivers
What trends driving technology adoption in the medium
term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel iden...

Medium-Term Drivers
Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5
years to adoption) were identified and prioriti...

What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What significant drivers of learning technology
adoption do you feel will ...

The Challenges
What challenges impeding technology adoption in
academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon
panel i...

The Challenges
Two difficult challenges were identified:
25
“It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserv...

What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What:
 Solvable  Difficult  Wicked
challenges are missing?
• Tweet (or ...

Review
NMC Horizon report:
• Provides insights into technological trends,
driver & barriers for library
• Open methodology...

The Full NMC Horizon Report
NMC Horizon report
for Libraries 2014:
• 50 pages
• 18 topics
 6 key trends
 6 significant
c...

Tools for Futurists
Some tools which can help you to predict the future:
• Quick surveys
• Observing recent developments
•...

The Future Is Already Here!
Hands up if you have:
Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed
Options: Yes, No o...

Trip Reports
• What topics are covered at conferences
• What topics interested my peers
31
Tools
Our favourite sessions
Lo...

What Did You Notice Recently?
“What did you notice for the first time today (recently)?”
• Can be important for trend spot...

Action Brief Statement
Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Next Steps
Having identified future developments of relevance to
the...

Risks
The Need to Explicitly Address Risks
From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for
Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly...

Warning From The Past
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web
35
In ...

The Serenity Prayer
• The Serenity Prayer
36Serenity Prayer

Scenario Planning for Addressing the
Unexpected
37
Commercialisation
Devolved ownership
The niche librarian
Everyone’s an ...

Acknowledge & Engage With
Challenges
Need to acknowledge unpleasant truth and engage with
realities:
• Trump  Brexit
• Po...

Do it For Yourself
Do it for yourself!
• Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop
available under a Creative Commons ...

Further Reading
NMC Horizon
Reports:
• Libraries 2017
Wiki (report in
March 2017)
• Higher Education
2017 (Preview)
• High...

Conclusions
We have:
• Seen examples of technology trends, drivers &
challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel
• Learnt ab...

Questions?
42

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