Resilience managing the risk of natural disaster

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Managing the Risk of Natural Disaster
RESILIENCEManaging the Risk of Natural Disaster
eports FAA / EASA Certification Co...

© 2015 by David Vaughn, Jeff Plumblee, Jonathan Vaughn, and
Bob Prieto – Fluor
All rights reserved. No part of this public...

i
Acknowledgements
Resilience: Managing the Risk of Natural Disaster considers risk
management strategies, risk identifica...

ii
About the Authors
David Vaughn
Founder and Owner, Integrated Resilience, LLC
David is the Founder and Owner of Integrat...

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iii
Jeff Plumblee
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Clemson University
Jeff is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Online
Educat...

iv
Jonathan Vaughn
Resilience Solutions Specialist
Jonathan is a Specialist in Resilience Solutions at Fluor,
based in Gre...

v
Bob Prieto
Senior Vice President, Fluor
Bob Prieto is a senior vice president of Fluor, one of the
largest, publicly tra...

vi
Table of Contents
Section I
Chapter 1 Background Information
Chapter 2 Primer on Disaster/Hazard Risk and Resilience
Se...

SECTION I
BACKGROUNDINFORMATION

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1-1
Preface
“Resilience” has recently become a cure-all buzzword. Its varied concepts
have been applied across developed a...

1-2
states that a definition of resilience should embody the following
core concepts:
• Resilience is an inherent and dyna...

1-3
disaster risk management. The chapter attempts to create a common
operating picture by giving a brief history of risk ...

2-1
History of the Field
Disasters have impacted human civilization throughout time, and as
population and development con...

2-2
PPD-8 also mandates a new piece of the national preparedness system:
planning frameworks for each of the preparedness ...

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2-3
Some events can be forecasted, allowing preparations to be made in advance
of the impact. These events are referred to...

2-4
hindsight(5)
. These are also referred to as unknown-unknown events. The
four quadrants seen below represent the four ...

2-5
notes that in the past 30 years, the frequency of disaster events has
quadrupled, economic losses have increased by a ...

2-6
seen in the maps, U.S. population has increased in most areas, but the largest
increases are in coastal areas, indicat...

2-7
local laws or codes. To summarize the figure, population densities in
vulnerable regions are increasing, creating more...

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2-8
Figure 2-6: Seismic Hazard Map
(Source: United States Geological Survey)
Why Reduce Risk?
Direct Loss & Business Inter...

2-9
returns. Insurers are used when a company does not want to or does not have
the ability to maintain enough capital to ...

2-10
Similar to shareholder confidence, losing customer confidence and
satisfaction is also a potentially crippling result...

2-11
Public sector. Operating funds are generated through various forms of
taxation of the private sector, citizens, the i...

2-12
5. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly
Improbable Fragility. Random House LLC, 2010.
6. ...

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2-13
15. https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130816200159-131079-
employee-retention-now-a-big-issue-why-the-tid...

SECTION II
RISKBASEDLIFECYCLEPLANNING

3-1
This chapter is intended to serve as an introduction to Risk Based Life Cycle
Planning, and the following chapters wil...

3-2
documents, which then feed back into the pre-event preparedness and
planning processes.
Figure 3-1 shows the iterative...

4-1
As the business environment continues to evolve into the 21st
century,
companies are forced to focus on enterprise ris...

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4-2
that foresaw potential issues and immediately began searching for alternate
solutions versus those that did not realiz...

4-3
Risks can be prioritized based upon the likelihood an event will occur and
the severity of damage it would cause if su...

4-4
facility far inland to avoid hurricane risk. Even then, there are tradeoffs: a
coastal location may provide better tra...

4-5
Benefits of Supply Chain Resilience Strategies
With an increase in terrorism, interconnectedness of infrastructure,
gl...

4-6
• 63% reduced problem identification time
• 50% reduced response time to a problem
• 38% shortened problem resolution ...

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4-7
Companies are trending towards requiring suppliers to provide proof of
business continuity/disaster management plans t...

4-8
inputs, product demand and product inventory levels, equipment lead times
for replacement, redundant offsite capacity ...

4-9
Assessing Criticality
To understand enterprise risks, a company must first determine which value
chains are critical. ...

4-10
located in highly susceptible locations should take priority for detailed
vulnerability assessments described in Chap...

4-11
Figure 4-6: United States Hurricane and Earthquake Threat Map
To continue the aircraft manufacturing example above, t...

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4-12
Bibliography
1. maplecroft.com/about/news/nha_2013.html
2. maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2014/02/19/natural-h...

4-13
8. www.supplychainbrain.com/content/featured-content/single-article
/article/leveraging-lessons-learned-in-helping-th...

5-1
According to Conway Data, a research firm that focuses on economic
development, in 2012 there were approximately $342 ...

5-2
disasters are more common in certain regions, and even certain sites within
those regions are at greater risk than oth...

5-3
Business
Environment Cost Risk
Environmental • Air quality
status
• Permitting
process and
schedule
• Investment in
po...

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5-4
III. Alternative Evaluation
IV. Negotiations and Due Diligence
The process of selecting a site can be thought of like ...

5-5
Phase I – Alignment and Search Region Definition
In Phase I – Alignment and Search Region Definition, the geographic a...

5-6
Figure 5-2: Examples of Labor Intensive and
Capital Intensive Manufacturing Site Costs
Once large regions are determin...

5-7
− Topography
− Soil conditions
− Access
• Building characteristics (if applicable)
− Size
− Bay spacing
− Ceiling heig...

5-8
Phase III can be used as a platform to incorporate the costs to mitigate or
avoid weaknesses and risks that were previ...

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5-9
Phase IV – Negotiations and Due Diligence
In Phase IV – Negotiations and Due Diligence, detailed analyses are
performe...

5-10
redundancy. Incentives can help offset these costs so that the site will not be
penalized in the decision process.
Co...

6-1
Resilient Design
Risk management for natural hazards should be considered in the front-end
planning and design for new...

6-2
resilient features to be eliminated or overlooked. One approach to ensure
that resilience is not overlooked is to make...

6-3
The Department of Buildings found that the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate
Maps (FIRMs) were outdated and that the storm sur...

6-4
Pre-Event Planning: Threat Identification, All Hazards
Assessment, and RTO Determination
As discussed in Chapter 2, th...

6-5
Earthquakes occur most frequently along fault lines, and tropical cyclones
(also referred to as hurricanes and typhoon...

6-6
must be restored after the event. This can also be decided upon using a
variety of methods.
Some facilities may have e...

6-7
1. Facility
“Facility” refers to the structural integrity of onsite buildings including
manufacturing, warehousing, ad...

6-8
documents, schematics, diagrams, manuals, procedures, regulatory
requirements and other operational documents, may be ...

6-9
mitigation plans to ensure supply of essential materials and services.
Unfortunately, studies show that as many as two...

6-10
Risk Mitigation
The potential to prevent, mitigate, and respond to all risks should be
evaluated. With the exception ...

6-11
maintaining duplicate equipment, but in many cases, this is cost prohibitive.
Agreements can be maintained with equip...

6-12
• Installing expansion joints on piping to protect against shock
• Establishing service agreements for water supply, ...

6-13
6. Infrastructure
Infrastructure mitigation addresses vulnerabilities within offsite
transportation and utility netwo...

6-14
Preparedness & Planning
Companies can reduce an event’s disruptive impacts through mitigation
actions, but the risk o...

6-15
• Fuel supply
• Demolition and debris removal
• Equipment and tools
• Facility restoration and cleaning
• Industrial ...

6-16
Exercises. Readiness should include routine
training and exercises to test and improve
recovery plans. Exercises help...

7-1
Throughout this book, resilience is defined as the “capability to anticipate
risk, limit impact, and bounce back rapid...

7-2
However, each event presents new challenges and lessons learned, providing
new opportunities to “build back better.” F...

7-3
Many companies’ planning efforts do not adequately consider employees.
Some companies do not have defined employee ass...

7-4
constrained after an event. Having a contract with a national supplier is a
wise investment, and beyond a simple contr...

7-5
Furthermore, the 9/11 Commission’s recommendations for implementation
calls for the development of voluntary, private-...

7-6
Post-Event Response and Recovery Challenges
Response and recovery to a disaster scenario present many unique
challenge...

7-7
Post-Event Recovery Planning
Pre-event planning is essential to accelerated recovery. In order to expedite
facility re...

7-8
The next sections will identify elements that should be considered and
included within the FRP.
Facility Recovery Plan...

7-9
• Use of health, safety and environmental (HSE) and quality plans
The FRP was developed to establish a sound and effic...

7-10
Cost Control Procedures
Prior to an event, the cost control procedures should be created to ensure
that budgets can b...

7-11
and enable additional resources to be mobilized as required. To save time, it
could be wise to have pre-authorization...

7-12
Phase II – Initial Mobilization
This phase involves the initial response to a “Warning Order,” which is
based on pred...

7-13
During this phase, the following work elements will be addressed:
• Detailed assessments are performed by the project...

7-14
ensures that required project completion documentation is compiled and
submitted as required and that demobilization ...

7-15
A Path Forward in Recovery
Over the past few decades, the Federal government has invested heavily to
create better po...

7-16
2. http://www.fema.gov/national-response-framework
3. Lallemant – http://resilienturbanism.org/dlallemant/building-po...

8-1
As discussed throughout the book, we live in an interconnected society. We
are only as strong as our weakest links. We...

8-2
Figure 8-1: Natural Disaster Summary 1900-2011
(Linear-Interpolated Smooth Lines)
Develop Common Understanding. In ord...

SECTION III
APPENDIX

9-1
Term Definition & References
9/11 Commission The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks
Upon the United States (also...

9-2
Term Definition & References
safety inspections of structures following
earthquakes and windstorms/floods, respectivel...

9-3
Term Definition & References
Contingency
Contracting Plan
Defines the methods used for sourcing of services
following ...

9-4
Term Definition & References
Disaster Housing
Plan
Document outlining the procedures for establishing
disaster housing...

9-5
Term Definition & References
Flood Insurance
Rate Map (FIRM)
Official map of a community that has delineated
both the ...

9-6
Term Definition & References
Mitigation Activities taken to reduce the impact from hazards.
(http://www.nfpa.org/codes...

9-7
Term Definition & References
Notice Event An event which can be forecasted to the extent
which allows for preparations...

9-8
Term Definition & References
Ps-Prep The Voluntary Private Sector Preparedness
Program: A voluntary accreditation and ...

9-9
Term Definition & References
that threatens life, property, operations, or the
environment.
(http://www.nfpa.org/codes...

9-10
Term Definition & References
Self-Insure Risk management approach in which an entity sets
aside a sum as a protection...

9-11
Term Definition & References
Threat Negative event that can cause a risk to become a
loss. A threat may be a natural ...

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