AI Fables, Facts and Futures: Threat, Promise or Saviour

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Wed 23 May 2018 18:00 – 20:00
Water Front Auditorium: Floor 1
Admission Free
Refreshments Provided
Register: EventBrite
Ou...

F A C T S
F A B L E S
F U T U R E s
P r o m i s e
S a v i o u r
T h r e a t
Peter
Cochrane
A very human dream come true

Tenets
Intelligence is an emergent property of complex systems
Not all complex systems exhibit intelligence
Intelligence a...

AWARENESS
Begets sentience
A function of context and cognition
An indirect function of memory & computing power
Predominan...

TODAY ’S reality
AI is evolving rapidly and not mature
Subject to a vast R&D effort
Papers published at a pace
Discoveries...

Are you an
artiﬁcial
intelligence ?
Does it Matter ?
Future reality
Already here - a widely accepted norm
Talking to your ...

Genesis

Predispositions towards
robots & AI are rooted in
an ancient civilisations
Precursors
praecursorem
先導前駆
претходник
πρόδρο...

Precursors
先導前駆
Predispositions towards
robots & AI strongly
rooted China and Japan
17c
Automatons that write &
draw, pla...

Precursors
Automatons that write &
draw, play games, magic
tricks, play instruments &
++ based on brass and
steel clockwor...

Precursors
Manual to mechanical to
electro-mechanical pre the
electronic era circa 1915
Predispositions towards
robots & A...

A p e rs ist e nt d r ea m
Technologically nowhere near being up to the
demands of the movie and robot makers, and
that is...

W W I I CO L OSS US
Alan Turing + many more
Theoretical and Mathematical
analysis and understanding and
drive was the big ...

W W II ENIAC

OVERSTATED AI
The start of an AI push that created
expectations that would not be net for
70 more years and brought the di...

And in BIOLOGY
The microscope & dissection
techniques on animals and humans
were revealing neurones and neural
networks as...

The 1940-50 view
4) Non-axon - dendrite propagation < 5 years
5) Quantum components < 3 years
6) Mechanical component < 4 ...

Scientiﬁc American April 2018
Physicists who have revived experiments from 50 years ago say nerve cells
communicate with m...

1949 DONALD HEBB Learning
H e b b i a n
Decay
H e b b i a n
Build
We remember, forget, learn, make decisions on the basis
...

1949 DONALD HEBB Learning
We remember, forget, learn, make decisions on the basis
of the concatenation of accumulating swi...

June 21, 2018
Source:
Picower Institute at MIT
Summary:
A series of complex experiments in the visual
cortex of mice has y...

WE NOW KNOW FAR MORE
The complexity involved in realising our
own intelligence is vast and still being
uncovered/revealed/...

WE NOW KNOW FAR MORE
The complexity involved in realising our
own intelligence is vast and still being
uncovered/revealed/...

WHAT WE NOW KNOW IS FUZZY!
Bio-Chemical Bio-Mechanical
Bio-Electric
Electro-Causality?
Does the detail matter?
For the Sci...

7 0 y e a r s o n !
“We can assert with great conﬁdence
that we do not yet fully understand the
human (or any other) brain...

HIDDEN SUBTLETies
1010 - 1011 with 103 - 105
Axons/Dendrite Connections
The way all this grows, builds, connects and
funct...

LaTest Surprise
How come and what
does it mean ?

U N E X P E C T E D
A first or second order effect ?

7 0 y e a r s o n !
“We might observe that the whole AI
movement started their voyage in true
engineering fashion with par...

B I G L O G I CA L L EA P o f 1957
We can build an electronic version !
Because it will suddenly switch at a
given level -...

LOGICAL THINKING
So the biological brains are like:
1) A telephone network
2) A computer
3) Computer networks
4) The inter...

LOGICAL THINKING
So the biological brains are like:
1) A telephone network
2) A computer
3) Computer networks
4) The inter...

Early machines had 4k of memory
and far less than 1000 nodes
For average human adult
"The average number of neocortical
ne...

BIO-ENGINEERING
Ratio of neurons + axon + dendrite
network to vascular plumbing to get
energy in and heat out
STILL BEING ...

PERSPECTIVE
Thermodynamics tells
us that one of these
cannot decode or
understand the other
We can only understand
our own...

Exemplar
C-Elegans
A map of the neural system of a nematode tells us nothing about how
it works - aka a road map of the UK...

ABILITY BENCHMARK
1031 v 959 cells - HUH ?
When AI helps us crack this problem we
will have the ﬁrst comparative measure
o...

1957: 13 people deliver a computer
2017: 13 computers in one hand
£29,000 then ~£613,000 today
HD 320k
>3.5kW
Q u a d C o ...

i n < 3 0 Y e a r s
~ 1,000,000,000 x chip capacity
Cray 2 1985
$32M and 5kW
iPhone 5 2012
$700 and 5W
3 x more
powerful

i n < 3 0 Y e a r s
~ 1,000,000,000 x chip capacity
iPhone 4 2010
1.6 GFlops
0.8GHz Single-Core
iWatch 2014
2 GFlops
1GHz ...

I M P A C T O N A I
A VERY IMPERFECT comparison
86 Bn
100 Bn
23 Mn
530 Mn
Approx
Neuron
Count
Approx
Abilities
Intelligenc...

i n < 3 0 Y e a r s
~ 1,000,000,000 x chip capacity
~Dog Brain
~Mouse Brain
~Human
Brain
There is far more to intelligence...

G A M E C H A N G E R 1 9 9 7
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
BEWARE MANTRAS & NEVER
Computers will never :
Pl...

G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 1
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
BEWARE MANTRAS & NEVER
Computers will never :
Pl...

G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 2
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
BEWARE MANTRAS & NEVER
Computers will never :
Be...

G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 4
Considered to be impossible by philosophers

G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 8
Considered to be impossible by philosophers

Processing
Speed
Data
Storage
Internet
Processing
Indeterminate
I n t e r n e t
Storage
~1022 Bytes
T E C H V B I O L G Y
...

Processing
Speed
Data
Storage
Internet
Processing
Indeterminate
I n t e r n e t
Storage
~1022 Bytes
Human
Storage
~1016 By...

Processing
Speed
Data
Storage
Internet
Processing
Indeterminate
I n t e r n e t
Storage
~1022 Bytes
Human
Storage
~1016 By...

B U I L D I N G A B RA I N
How hard can it be ?
Build lots of perceptrons and then concatenate
them in a network to extrac...

B U I L D I N G A B RA I N BUT - What kind of a network and
techniques? How big: I/O, layers,
weightings, resolution ?
Sam...

B U I L D I N G A B RA I N BUT - What kind of a network and
techniques? How big: I/O, layers,
weightings, resolution ?
THI...

A VAST C H O I C E
A ‘zoo’ of AI Neural Network conﬁgurations
have been ‘established’ by ‘near optimised’
apps created ove...

$A VA S T C H O I C E The biggest fraction of the mix TechniquesSoftware$

$A VA S T C H O I C E The biggest fraction of the mix TechniquesSoftware Im M e d ia t e l y v e r y c o m p l e x E x p e ...$

Only a rough
guide as to the
likely App - Net
Type marriages
RO U G H
G U I D E

CAR INSURANCE
Driver
Accidents
Claims
Region
Age
Health
Routes
Parking
+NCB
++++
Employ
Offer
Refuse
Price
NCB Terms

CAR INSURANCE
Driver
Accidents
Claims
Region
Age
Health
Routes
Parking
+NCB
++++
Employ
Offer
Refuse
Price
NCB Terms
Memor...

RECOGNITION
Input thousands of pics
Tell net if it is
right or wrong
a pic at a time
Essentially a patter matching problem...

RECOGNITION
Input thousands of pics
Tell net if it is
right or wrong
a pic at a time
Memory
Processing
Essentially a patte...

RECOGNITION
H i e r a rc h i c a l f e a t u re
extraction and recognition
a layer at a time gives a
high probability of c...

Memory
Processing
RECOGNITION
H i e r a rc h i c a l f e a t u re
extraction and recognition
a layer at a time gives a
hig...

RECOGNITION

RECOGNITION
At a crudity level that
makes it hard for us to
decide…

A rough guide
as to the likely
App - Net Type
marriages
H a n d W r it i n g
“ T h e h i d d e n
complexity and
beauty of ...

A rough guide
as to the likely
App - Net Type
marriages
H a n d W r it i n g
“ T h e h i d d e n
complexity and
beauty of ...

A rough guide
as to the likely
App - Net Type
marriages
H a n d W r it i n g
“ T h e h i d d e n
complexity and
beauty of ...

WATC H T h is N ET

WATC H T h is N ET

WATC H T h is N ET
Memory
Processing

A I
Sense, Garner Data, Analyse, Reason
P E RS P ECT IV E
Boundaries not well defined

A I
Sense, Garner Data, Analyse, Reason
M A C H I N E
L e a r n i n g
Adaptive Networks & Algorithms
More exposure to data...

A I
Sense, Garner Data, Analyse, Reason
M A C H I N E
L e a r n i n g
Adaptive Networks & Algorithms
More exposure to data...

A I
Sense, Garner Data, Analyse, Reason
M A C H I N E
L e a r n i n g
Adaptive Networks & Algorithms
More exposure to data...

A I
Sense, Garner Data, Analyse, Reason
M A C H I N E
L e a r n i n g
Adaptive Networks & Algorithms
More exposure to data...

There is endless depth to
just about every aspect of
AI that takes decades to
fully comprehend - and so
like all disciplin...

There is endless depth to
just about every aspect of
AI that takes decades to
fully comprehend - and so
like all disciplin...

There is endless depth to
just about every aspect of
AI that takes decades to
fully comprehend - and so
like all disciplin...

G a m e C h a n g e r 2 o 1 8
Goodbye Touring Test and a lot of nonsense
P re - p ro g ra m m e d c o n t e x t a n d o n ...

G a m e C h a n g e r 2 o 1 8
Goodbye Touring Test and a lot of nonsense
T h e m a c h i n e i s d e f i n i t e l y s m a...

I LOVE YOU
At BTLabs ~1995
Discernment very
with voice alone:
True Affection
Frustration
Irritation
Assertion
Sarcasm
Ange...

AW A R E N ESS
Context & Cognition
At BTLabs ~1995
Machines exceeded our
s p e e c h r e c o g n i t i o n
a b i l i t i e...

AWAREness
More & more clues
Who is it
What are they
Where are they
What is the topic
A priori information
Content & contex...

AWAREness
Only the first step!
Our machines really do have their work cut
out if they are ever going to understand us -
va...

AWAREness
The military version!
Hardly likely to be sufficient (or work) for
modern non-linear warfare - probably as
rigid...

W h e r e A r e W e To d ay ?
At the foothills of AI with a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
...

W h e r e A r e W e To d ay ?
At the foothills of AI with a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
...

W h e r e A r e W e To d ay ?
At the foothills of AI with a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
...

W h e r e A r e W e To d ay ?
At the foothills of AI with a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
...

W h e r e A r e W e To d ay ?
At the foothills of AI with a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
...

5
TYPE 1
Reactive
Task Specific
Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching
Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, spee...

5
TYPE 1
Reactive
Task Specific
Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching
Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, spee...

W h at w e K n o w Cells in Human Body ~2 x 1013
Cells in Human Brain ~2 x 1011About biological intelligences
Networks of ...

W h at w e K n o w Cells in Human Body ~2 x 1013
Cells in Human Brain ~2 x 1011About biological intelligences
Networks of ...

N o B r a i n
Only sensors and actuators - no brain as such
A colony of zooids creating a nervous system - some light sens...

C o l l e c t i v e
250k neurons + sensory system - avid networkers

Entombed in meat space
Considered totally vegetative !
No evidence of any I/O
C O M OT O S E D ~ 1 o Y e a r s
Sensors S =...

Actuator
A
Processor
P1
Memory
M
Processor
P2
Sensors
S
T
T
System
Environs
S i m p l e A n i m a l
Assuming a simple mode...

Memory
ShortTerm
Processor
1
Actuator
Sensors
Memory
LongTerm
Processor
2
Ty
Ty
System
Environs
M o r e C O M P L E X
Buil...

Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
Followed by analysis and some math
...

1960 70 80 90 2000 10
ComputingPowerMIP/s
Intelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of
Artiﬁcial
Intelligence
Internet
R i s e o f I...

1960 70 80 90 2000 10
ComputingPowerMIP/s
Intelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of
Artiﬁcial
Intelligence
Internet
R i s e o f I...

OUR NEW PARTNERS
Logical
Precise
Consistent
Considered
Rapid Recall
Vast Capacity
Fast processing
Expanding utility
Growin...

A I & i n n ovat i o n
A primary tool of discovery
Analytics:
Medical
Security
Big Data
Political
Networks
Economic
Genomi...

Thinking the right way
People fear, & complain, overlook the big gains
V i v e
L a
d i f f e r e n c e

Ex e m p l a r
N e w C r e a t i v i t y

Ex e m p l a r
N e w C r e a t i v i t y Criticism
It is just copying and
aping what human
composers have done !
Retort 1
...

A I T H R E AT O R P R O M I S E
Is this going to be the Final
Chapter for humanity?
The media and Hollywood feed on
disas...

H U M A N M AT E R I A LS
Reforming Pharma - Designer Solutions?
Genome Decoded
Comms
Path
Protein Folding
Solved by Robot...

H U M A N M AT E R I A LS
Reforming Pharma - Designer Solutions?
Genome Decoded
Comms
Path
Protein Folding
Solved by Robot...

1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Water + Steam
Power
Mechanisation
Electrical Power
Mass Production
Computer
Control
Automation
Customi...

INDUSTRY Evolves
The change cycle is accelerating AI Discovers New Materials
AI Discovers 6000 new craters
on the moon
Res...

P O R T E N T ?
AI-Robots learn fast….

P O R T E N T ?
AI-Robots learn fast….

ACT U A L I TY
Can people learn too ?
S
e n s
o r
B o u n d e d
m
o v e m
e n t
- A
c t
i o n

WOOOO to come !
Uncanny Valley is well
understood and documented
in the ﬁeld of robotics and we
are about to see an action...

WOOOO to come !
We should anthropomorphise machines with
due care and attention - function over fright !

WOOOO to come !
F A C T
S
F A B L E
S
F U T U R E
We connect to AI and then to the AI networks !

WOOOO to come !
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F F
F F
We connect to AI and then to the AI networks !

HAL 9000
Deep thinking
o r b i g t h re a t ?
2001: A Space Odyssey 1968 Directed by Stanley Kubrick, based on A C ClarkeT...

TOASTER
Deep humour
or nightmare?
Talkie Toaster, in Red Dwarf
novels & TV series.
Manufactured by Crapola Inc.,
an annoyi...

An A.I. system:
1) Must be subject to the full gamut of laws that apply to its human operator/creator
2) Must clearly disc...

An A.I. system:
1) Must be subject to the full gamut of laws that apply to its human operator/creator
2) Must clearly disc...

ONLY ONE
All that is needed
Mobile AI/Robotic weapon platforms
demand far less resources than any
atom bomb and/or missile...

Thank You
www.cochrane.org.uk
What are these crazy humans
planning to do next ?

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