Lost Rivers & Urban Flooding, Media, Myths & Smart Mitigation - Tor...

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WENDIGO
WHERE’D IT GO ?
LOST RIVERS AND URBAN FLOODING:
MEDIA, MYTHS & SMART MITIGATION
Robert Muir, M.A.SC., P.Eng.
Green...

OUTLINE
•Lost Rivers and Urban Flooding
•Ward 13 and 14 Flood Risks
•Extreme Rainfall Trends – Media
Myths
•Urbanization &...

WHO AM I ?
•Manager, Stormwater @ City of
Markham
•Previously a Partner at Dillon
Consulting
•Blogger: www.cityfloodmap.co...

SEVERE FLOOD EVENTS - TORONTO
MAY 12, 2000
3162
REPORTS
AUGUST 19,
2005
3640
REPORTS
JULY 8, 2013
1934
REPORTS(sample of 4...

TORONTO

Valleys &
Flood
Hazards

Overland Flow
beyond the
Valleys

Even More
Overland
Flow

FLOOD LOCATION - VALLEY vs TABLE
LAND
3162
REPORTS
2.0 %
98 %
3640
REPORTS
0.6 %
99 %
1934
REPORTS*
2.8 %
97 %
Flooded Pro...

Wards 13
& 14

Regulated
Valley
Features

Overland
Flow Paths

Overland
Flow Spread
(Estimated)

Flood Reports
Ward 13 & 14
(approx.)

Flood Reports
Other Areas
(higher risks)

Wendigo Creek
Spring Creek

• “…the Insurance Bureau of Canada estimates that extreme storms of a
magnitude expected to happen every 40 years are now ...

Environment and Climate Change
Canada Refutation of Claim:
18

19
A: “If this is used as the basis for statements
about actual changes in extreme rainfall in
Canada, then I would have c...

• Maximum rainfall
intensities decreasing in
certain areas
• Decreasing trends in
Toronto are statistically
significant ov...

• Toronto Future Climate Drivers Study predicted changes in rainfall extremes
that are contradicted by observed stable val...

www.cityfloodmap.com
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations
• Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data.
• Mor...

Media “Root Cause” Data Gaps
• Operational issues mis-characterized as a climate change-induced event.
• Reported “unprece...

We’ve seen this before…
24http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/05/go-train-flooded-in-1981-too-media.html
=

25
25

SO WHAT IS CAUSING
MORE FLOODING?
•Urbanization and intensification
•Only Milli Vanilli
Blame it on the Rain
26

50 YEARS OF URBANIZATION
27

Urban ‘Pink Splat’… like Cat in the Hat
… don’t think we’ll get
old hydrology back. 28

INTENSIFICATION ON MY
STREET
•45 yrs adding hard surfaces = more
runoff for
the same rain
Example intensification, just th...

WHAT IS INCREASING RIVER
FLOW ?
•University of Guelph research says
urbanization and not changing climate
30

Upper Decile of 𝐑𝐮𝐧𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐂𝐨𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬
Moira River at Foxboro (02HL001): 1921-30, 1963-72, 2006-15
Don River at Todmorden (02...

GREEN
INFRASTRUCTURE•Helps mimic natural hydrologic cycle, reduce
runoff
•2017 WWFMP implementation update, Toronto
Water ...

Completed Project Costs – Typically Very High
33
City / Town LID Type
(Project Name)
Capital +
Soft Cost ($)
Service Area
...

reen Infrastructure
Cost for 1050 ha =
$420,000,000
1050 hectares

CONCLUSIONS
• Bad News: Lost Rivers often have concentrated flooding
risks
• Good News: Wards 13 and 14 have relatively lo...

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