Understanding CBO’s Medicaid Coverage Projections under the Afforda...

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Congressional Budget Office
Understanding CBO’s Medicaid Coverage
Projections under the Affordable Care Act
Presentation t...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 1
Why did CBO’s Projections of Medicaid Enrollment
Decline over Time?
10...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 2
Affordable Care Act:
Key Provisions Affecting Medicaid Enrollment
■ Ex...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 3
CBO Modeling Assumptions:
Main Drivers of Medicaid Enrollment
■ Number...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 4
CBO Estimates of the Impact of the Affordable Care Act
CBO usually upd...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 5
Four Major Legislative Changes that Affected Coverage Projections
1. L...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 6
Example of a Change in the Economic Forecast that
Affected Coverage Pr...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 7
Some Technical Changes that Affected Coverage
Projections
■ CBO has sl...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 8
Medicaid Enrollment due to ACA:
CBO Baseline Projections
0
2
4
6
8
10
...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 9
Exchange Enrollment: CBO Baseline Projections
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 ...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 10
Uninsured: CBO Baseline Projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 201...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 11
Change in Employment-based Coverage due to ACA:
CBO Baseline Projecti...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 12
How CBO Models the Impact of the Supreme Court
Decision
Some states w...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 13
CBO’s allocation of potentially newly eligible Medicaid
beneficiaries...

C O N G R E S S I O N A L B U D G E T O F F I C E 14
Conclusion
■ When outcomes are uncertain, CBO considers a range of
po...

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