MNRF CWRA Technical Workshop March 6 2018 Rob Grech and Robert Muir...

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Woodbine
Floodplain Mapping Knowledge Transfer Workshop
Climate Change and
Modelling Uncertainty
Rob Grech and Rob Muir
Ci...

Toronto Island flooding a new normal ?
Or an old extreme ?
2017 1973
2

data shows mostly an old extreme
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/09/toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lake.html
74
74.2
7...

This is rare …..
4

But this is non-existent ...
5

Woodbine
Outline
6
• What Is Driving Changes in Flood Risk?
– Lower Southern Ontario Extreme Rainfall Trends
– Higher Urba...

Southern ON Extreme Rain Trends Decreasing
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/01/climate-change-ontario-short-duration.html
...

Lower IDF
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/11/less-extreme-short-duration-rainfall-in.html
9
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2...

Urbanization Extensive Since Mid-1960s
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.html 10...

Local IDF Trends (Past)
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 2075 2095 11
Buttonville
Airp...

Future IDF Uncertainty (Above & Below Standards)
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 2075...

Future IDF Uncertainty (Scenarios / Methods / Stations)
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
1975 1995 2015 2035 20...

What is Critical Data to Support Decision Making?
Intensity-Duration-
Frequency curves are
to water resources
engineering ...

Design Hyetograph Uncertainty
15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 100 200 300 400 500
RainfallIntensity(mm/hr)
Time (minutes)
Ma...

16
Real Hyetograph(s) Uncertainty

17
Real Hyetograph(s) Uncertainty

18
Real Hyetograph(s) Uncertainty

Design Standard Upgrades vs Climate Change Adaptation
19
Old
5-Yr
Design
Design Standard
Upgrade
(high loss reduction)
Tod...

Uncertainties at the Project Level:
Don Mills Channel
20

Project Delivery
Identify
Project
Goals &
Level of
Service
Hydrology
Hydraulics
Assess
Mitigation
Methods
Determine
Costs ...

Identify
Project
Goals &
Level of
Service
Hydrology
Hydraulics
Assess
Mitigation
Methods
Determine
Costs and
ROI
Project D...

Study Area Overview
23
Steeles Ave E
John Street
Denison St

Flood Prediction Modelling
• A tool to be used to better understand where flooding will
occurs and how to mitigate flood d...

Engineering – Hydrology - Flow
25
Study By Date Hydrologic
Model
Storm Distribution 5-Year Flow
(m3/s)
100-Year
Flow
(m3/s...

26
Engineering – Hydrology – Drainage Area & SWM Controls

Engineering Uncertainties - Hydraulics
27

Engineering Uncertainties - Hydraulics
28

Engineering Uncertainties - Hydraulics
29

Uncertainty in Project Cost Estimation
30
Pre-Project
Identifi-
cation
Project
Identifi-
cation
Environ-
mental
Assessment...

Calculating Flood Damages
• MNRF Flood Damages Curves
(Ontario)
• HEC FIA (Army Corps of Engineers)
• HEC FDA (Army Corps ...

Project Findings
• A 5 year level of service goal is preferred for the following reasons:
– The cost of mitigation was man...

Woodbine
Conclusions
33
• Higher urbanization & intensification increase flood risk despite
decreasing extreme rain trends...

We have always had flooding
Engineers don’t let that stop them in
in their quests …
34

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