What's the Long-Term Budget Outlook

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CRFB.org

CRFB.org
$400
$1,000
$1,600
$2,200
$2,800
$3,400
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
March 2020 Current Law
$1.4 trill...

CRFB.org
$400
$1,000
$1,600
$2,200
$2,800
$3,400
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
March 2020 Current Law
September ...

CRFB.org
$400
$1,000
$1,600
$2,200
$2,800
$3,400
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
March 2020 Current Law
September ...

CRFB.org
98%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
March 2020 Current...

CRFB.org
98%
109%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
March 2020 Cu...

CRFB.org
98%
121%
109%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
March 20...

CRFB.org
Near-Term Deficit Increases Stem from COVID Reponses

CRFB.org
2020 2020-2030
Deficits Projected in March 2020 $1,073 billion $14,164 billion
COVID Relief Legislation $2,317 bi...

CRFB.org
32.0%
23.0%
15.5%
17.8%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
March 2020 Current Law
September 2020 Current Law
But Structural ...

CRFB.org
11
2005 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050
Spending 19.1% 21.0% 32.0% 23.1% 27.1% 31.2%
Social Security 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 6.0%...

CRFB.org
12
9.1%
12.6%
16.5%
1%
5%
9%
13%
17%
21%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
2019 Lo...

CRFB.org
13
144%
195%
246%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
180%
210%
240%
270%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205...

CRFB.org
14
2019 Projection of Debt to GDP in 2049 144 percent of GDP
COVID Relief Legislation +10 percent of GDP
Bipartis...

CRFB.org
Rising Debt Will Slow GDP Growth by 0.2% per year
and Reduce Annual Per Person Income by $6,300
Source: Congressi...

CRFB.org
16
Interest Will Become the Largest Federal Government
Program
Source: Congressional Budget Office.

CRFB.org
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Medicare HI
2024
Highway
2021
Meanwhile, Insolvency Looms fo...

CRFB.org
The Longer We Wait, the Harder It Will Be to Fix the Debt
Source: Congressional Budget Office.

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