Grid-Scale Energy Storage and Electric Vehicles: The Risks of Techn...

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Grid-Scale Energy Storage and Electric Vehicles:
The Risks of Technology Lock-In
and Innovation Mercantilism
David M. Hart...

About George Mason & the Schar School
• Mason:
• Founded 1957
• Largest public university in Virginia: 34,000 students fr....

About ITIF
• The world’s leading science and technology policy think tank.
• Supports policies driving global, innovation-...

Now on Twitter!
@ProfDavidHart
More!
https://itif.org/issues
/energy-climate
About Me

Seminar Outline
1. The Big Picture in Climate and Energy
2. The Low-Carbon Energy Innovation Imperative
3. The Manufacturi...

Climate Change: It’s Real and Human-Caused
6

We Know (In General) What We Need To Do
• Improve energy efficiency
• Electrify end uses, where feasible
• Decarbonize ele...

Seminar Outline
1. The Big Picture in Climate and Energy
2. The Low-Carbon Energy Innovation Imperative
3. The Manufacturi...

Deployment and Innovation:
Complements, Not Substitutes
“We already know everything we need
to know to effectively address...

Deployment and Innovation:
Complements, Not Substitutes
“We already know everything we need
to know to effectively address...

US Carbon Emissions: Transportation > Power
11
California
emissions
inventory

Innovation Priorities for Light-Duty EVs
• Cost reduction
• Consumer familiarity
• Infrastructure
development/upgrading
• ...

Energy Storage for Highly Reliable Electricity
13
California solar “duck curve”
Iowa wind pattern

Innovation Priorities for Long-Duration Grid Storage
• Sustain basic research on scientific fundamentals
• Do R&D across d...

Seminar Outline
1. The Big Picture in Climate and Energy
2. The Low-Carbon Energy Innovation Imperative
3. The Manufacturi...

Why Manufacturing Matters
 Economic
 Workforce
 National Security
 Environmental
16

Innovation for Manufacturing
• Enables competitive manufacturing in higher-cost economies.
• Enables localized manufacturi...

Seminar Outline
1. The Big Picture in Climate and Energy
2. The Low-Carbon Energy Innovation Imperative
3. The Manufacturi...

Lock-In: The QWERTY Question

Lithium-ion Batteries: From Electronics to EVs
• Lightweight, high-power
• 1st market (1990s):
electronics
• 2nd market (2...

 Li-ion batteries =~90% of global
grid-scale storage market…and
rising!
3rd Market: Grid
21
Global annual grid-scale ener...

Li-ion on the Grid: Good Enough?
• Sub-optimal features
• Duration
• Cycle-life
• Economies of scale
• Adoption drivers
• ...

Li-ion Battery Production Capacity in 2020
23

Overcapacity Coming Soon?
• 2018 Nissan Leaf battery capacity = 40 kWh
• 2020 projected production capacity > 300 GWh = 30...

Non-Li-ion Battery Companies in Distress
25

Seminar Outline
1. The Big Picture in Climate and Energy
2. The Low-Carbon Energy Innovation Imperative
3. The Manufacturi...

Innovation Mercantilism, Defined
• “A strategy that uses trade-distorting policies to advantage local
technology firms and...

The Solar Precedent
28

From Solar Panels to Batteries and EVs
• Indigenous production and innovation as national strategic objective
• Market acc...

Auto Manufacturing Really Matters to the US!
30

Will ICE Become
the New Coal?
31

Seminar Outline
1. The Big Picture in Climate and Energy
2. The Low-Carbon Energy Innovation Imperative
3. The Manufacturi...

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