9 Priority Financing for Development Commitments

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9 priority FfD
commitments
@mcarthur
SITE - Stockholm School of Economics
FfD Conference
11 May 2015

Megatrends

Source: World Bank 2014
Global extreme poverty rate (%)

Child survival (U5MR)
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved …”

7.5 million additional lives saved
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”

Global shifts

Rates of progress
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”

Sources of global growth
Source: CIPS Development Study Group. 2015. Based on WDI 2015.

30 - 30 - 130

30 - 30 - 130

3 Big Breakthroughs

9 Recommendations

#1
Basic needs budget
$300 per capita (PPP)
or
10% of GNI (if >$3000)

AIC vs GNI per capita
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

Lowest AIC per capita
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

#2
Domestic Resource Mobilization
½ the gap to 20% of GDP
by 2025

Average non-grant revenue in 2010
(%GDP)
Note: Unweighted averages among available observations. Source: JW McArthur calcu...

#3
Middle-income
financing “trough”
MDB system review by 2016

Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

#4
~ $1 Trillion gap
for
infrastructure &
decarbonization
no silver bullet

peak urban population growth

#5
Timetable for
ODA to LDCs
> 0.15-20% of GNI by 2020

DAC Donor
ODA to LDCs
(% of GNI)
Absolute Value
(2005 $Mns)
1 Luxem bourg 0.38% 137
2 Denm ark 0.33% 955
3 Sweden 0.31% 1,...

DAC Donor
ODA to LDCs
(% of GNI)
Abs olute Value
(2005 $Mns )
10 Portugal 0.13% 255
11 France 0.12% 2,960
12 Canada 0.12% ...

#6
Global Skills Gap
put the “G” in GPE

Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18

Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18

#7
Climate Finance Accounting
ODA ≠ mitigation

“climate”
All “ODA”
TODAY "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
• Much “climate” ODA is for mitigation in
UMICs
• Pulls aid away fro...

“climate”
True “ODA”
“climate”
All “ODA”
TODAY
RECOMMEND "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
"AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
Source: K...

#8
Business performance metrics
“A timetable to fair play”
GASDAP* by 2020

Source: Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. 2015. 101 Briefing Presentation

#9
LDC/LIC Private Investment
LDC closed-end
investment fund

FDI vs ODA in sub-Saharan Africa

IV.
Post-script:
Complexities of inequality

Note: ODA is net disbursements net of debt relief; Source: OECD-DAC database 2013

Note: Aid is ODA net disbursements net of debt relief; Sources: J McArthur
calculations based on OECD-DAC database 2013; B...

thank you
@mcarthur

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