Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2023 [SlideShare]

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

The Independent Market Observer
Monthly Market Risk Update
August 2023

Recession Risk
• Recessions are strongly associated with market drawdowns;
8 of 10 bear markets have occurred during reces...

Economic Shock Risk
• A major systemic risk factor is the price of money, otherwise known
as interest rates.
• Interest ra...

Spread Between 10-Year U.S. Treasury and 3-Month U.S. Treasury
Yield Curve
(10-Year Minus
3-Month
Treasury Rates)
Source: ...

Yield Curve (10-Year Minus 3-Month Treasury Rates)
continued
• The yield curve inversion narrowed modestly in July. The
3-...

Market Risk
• Beyond the economy, we can also learn quite a bit by examining the
market itself. For our purposes, two thin...

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Robert Shiller, Haver Analytics
Note: Due to data limitations, this is the same valuation data ...

Valuations: 10-Month Change in Shiller P/E
continued
• Looking at the 10-month change in the Shiller cyclically adjusted
p...

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Haver Analytics
Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite
EOP, 1941-43=10
Margin Debt
...

Margin Debt as % of NYSE Market Capitalization
continued
• Spikes in debt levels typically precede a market drawdown.
• Ma...

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Haver Analytics
Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite
EOP, 1941-43=10
Technical
Fa...

Technical Factors: 200-Day and 400-Day
Moving Averages continued
• We start to pay attention when a market breaks through ...

S&P 500 Forward P/E Divided by VIX
Market
Complacency:
S&P 500
Forward P/E
Divided by
VIX
Source: Haver Analytics, FactSet...

Market Complacency: S&P 500 Forward P/E
Divided by VIX continued
• Often, high valuations (forward P/E) signal investors a...

Conclusion: Positive Returns Mask Risk
• Equity markets had a solid start to the second half of the year,
with all three m...

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-
looking statements that are based on our reasonable
expectations, est...

Share Slideshare

LinkedIn
Facebook
Twitter

Embed

Size (px)

Show related Slideshows at end

WordPress Shortcode

Link

Share
Email

2024 Trend Updates: What Really Wor... by Search Engine Jou... 1057327 views
Storytelling For The Web: Integrate... by Chiara Aliotta 973877 views
Artificial Intelligence, Data and C... by OECD Directorate ... 910242 views
How to Leverage AI to Boost Employe... by SocialHRCamp 385546 views
2024 State of Marketing Report – by... by Marius Sescu 218326 views
Everything You Need To Know About C... by Expeed Software 235577 views

View on Slideshare

1 of 16 Ad

View on Slideshare

1 of 16 Ad