WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE – SAF...

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Water Environment Association of Ontario
WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE –
SAFETY FACTORS AN...

OUTLINE
• New Policy and Legislation Requirements Regarding
Infrastructure Planning Under Climate Change
• Ontario Histori...

Ontario Drivers for Assessing Climate Change Risks
3
• Provincial Policy Statement (Ontario 2014):
– Part IV: Vision for O...

Ontario Drivers for Assessing Climate Change Risks (Cont.)
4
• (Class) Environmental Assessments (2017):
• Bill 139 (3rd r...

www.cityfloodmap.com
Decreasing Daily Max Rain Despite Recent Extremes
• Despite the
extreme event
on July 8, 2013,
the lo...

www.cityfloodmap.com
Less Extreme Rain - Ontario Long Records
• Stations
with 45+
years of
record and
recent data.
• More ...

Intensity Duration Frequency Trends – Lower TO
• As annual
maximum
values trend
lower, extreme
IDF intensities
decrease as...

Southern Ontario Extreme Rain Trends Decreasing -
Studies Related to IDF Trends and IDF Review
http://www.cityfloodmap.com...

Past Extreme Rain Trends Down = Safety Factor
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 2075 20...

Infrastructure Resiliency To Consider Climate Effects
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
1975 1995 2015 2035 2055...

Design Standard Upgrades vs Climate Change Adaptation (Storm)
12
Old
5-Yr
Design
Design Standard
Upgrade
(high loss reduct...

13
Steeles Ave
Major Mackenzie
Hwy404
YongeSt
YorkDurhamLine
City was founded in 1790’s,
covers 212 sq. Km, 330K
resident...

City of Markham Sanitary System Design and Existing
System Capacity Analysis
New Sanitary System Design
 Design Populatio...

Existing System Resiliency & Risks – New Developments vs. Older Areas
Old pre-1980 subdivisions
Surcharged MHs Under
Today...

Existing System Resiliency & Risks – New Developments vs. Older Areas
 Under the 100-year design event,
fully-separated s...

Design Hyetograph Effects Surcharge (Flood Risk)
17
Markham 100yr Chicago Storm
York Region 25 yr storm
(historical storm ...

Design Hyetograph Effects Surcharge (Flood Risk)
18

Design Hyetograph Affects Surcharge (Flood Risk)
• Storms were simulated in Markham’s all-pipe Infoworks model to assess
b...

WastewaterClimate Change Affects Surcharge (Flood Risk)
Flooded Manholes under Existing 100 year Design Storm
 Risks incr...

Design Hyetographs Can Account for Many
Uncertainties, Even Future Climate “Safety Factors”
• Robust Markham
‘Chicago’ 100...

Model Validation - July 16, 2017 Storm (50-100 year storm)
407
Major Mackenzie
9thLine
Post 90’sPre 80’s
Model Predicted
S...

Model Validation - July 16, 2017 Storm (50-100 year storm)
Model Predicted
Surcharge
Monitored WWF
Flood Reports

Model Validation - July 16, 2017 Storm (50-100 year storm)
407
Major Mackenzie
9thLine
Post 90’sPre 80’s
Model Predicted
S...

July 16, 2017 Storm - Percentage of
Properties Flooded
Post-1980 Systems Have Design Safety Factor
& Low Vulnerability To ...

Conclusions
• Long term local historical rain data trends indicated that local IDF data
remain stationary.
– The current I...

Thank You
27

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