Disentangling Impacts of Climate & Land Use Change on Quantity & Qu...

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Disentangling Impacts
of Climate & Land Use Changes
on the Quantity & Quality of River Flows
in Southern Ontario
by
Trevor...

Acknowledgements
 Agencies
 NSERC, OMAF & Environment Canada
 Personnel
 Barry Smith - Retired Program Manager, Water
...

River Flows Have Changed

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
1916-1925
0
20
40
60
...

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
2004-2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7...

Monthly & Annual Precipitation
has remained unchanged.

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AverageAnnualPrecipitation(mm)
Nith at New Hamburg Gra...

What’s Going On?!
Possible causes of changes in the river
flows include:
- Changes in Climate, and/or
- Changes in Land Us...

How Has Our Climate Changed?

Temperatures Have Risen
- mostly in the Winter

Annual Temperature Trends

Changes in Winter Mean Minimum Daily Temperature

Annual Temperature Trend Slopes

Rates of Increase in Temperatures
Celsius degrees per 100 years
Extreme Daily Minimum - 3.5 to 4.0
Mean Daily Minimum - 2....

So …
Temperatures have been increasing
somewhat steadily in Ontario,
- perhaps for up to and at least 150 years!
Winter te...

The Frequency of Frost – Free Days
has Increased Exponentially

Frost-Free Days
020040060080010001200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
NumberofFrost-FreeDaysperWinter
Winte...

Frost-Free Days
 As winter mean daily minimum temperatures
have been rising steadily, frost-free days have
been increasin...

There Has Been a Shift
in Winter Precipitation
from Snowfall to Rainfall

Changes in Winter Rainfall

Changes in Snowfall

Changes in Winter Precipitation
Total Precipitation
Total Precipitation
Total Precipitation
Snowfall
Snowfall
Snowfall
Rai...

Increased
Winter
Temperature
Increased
Number of
Frost-Free
Days
Shift from Snowfall to Rainfall
(i.e. fewer Snow Days & L...

What about Impacts on Snowpacks,
Winter Runoff & Infiltration

Likely Impacts I
Rising Winter
Temperatures
Increasing
Number of
Frost-Free
Days
Increased Winter Snowmelt

Likely Impacts II
Increased
Winter
Snowmelt
Increased
Winter
Rainfall
Increased Winter Surface
Runoff and/or Increased Win...

More Impacts I
Increased
Winter Tile Flow
Increased Winter
Groundwater
Recharge
Increased Winter
Infiltration

More Impacts II
Increased
Winter Surface
Runoff
Increased
Winter Tile Flow
& Recharge
Increased Winter Streamflow

And More
Increased
Winter
Snowmelt
Decreased
Snowfall
Decreased
End-of-Winter
Snowpack
Decreased
Snowmelt
Floods
Decreased...

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May
May
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
...

Rural Streamflows
So …
for Ontario Rural Watersheds,
changes in winter climate have:
- increased winter streamflows
and
- ...

Water Quality Impacts
What about Water Quality Impacts
Are we now seeing more frequent and greater:
- Field & Streambank E...

What about Impacts of
Urban Development?

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1
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3
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5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow 2004-2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7...

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May
May
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
...

0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
April May June July August September October
Significant Urbanization (50%)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1....

Streamflow Volumes
So …
in Ontario urban watersheds:
- urban development has augmented the winter
and spring climate chang...

Impacts of Urbanization on
River Water Quality
Are we seeing more frequent flushes and greater
volumes of:
- streambank er...

Conclusions
River flows have changed in Southern Ontario:
- in winter and spring, primarily due to climate
change; and
- d...

Questions
Water Management Questions
What do we do about the changes in river flows
- in urbanized and urbanizing watershe...

Questions
???

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
1916-1925
0
20
40
60
...

0
1
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3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
2004-2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7...

0
20
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140
160
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
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...

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