Pools, Abandonments, and Exhumation: Have We Reached Peak Pool?

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Welcome
Please:
 Download the Phone App!
 Use the Phone App to Complete the Fresh Ideas Scoring
 Use the Phone App to t...

Spools, Abandonments, and Exhumations:
Have we reached peak pool?
Mekha Pereira
Mekha was an intern with Montgomery & Asso...

Pool penetration rate for new homes is ≈11%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SFRswithapool(%)...

Date of construction – pool penetration
peaked in homes built in the late 1970s
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0...

Same graph using 2009 Assessor’s data
15.5%
in ‘57
33%
in ‘68
35%
in ‘74
21%
in ‘94
6.5%
in ‘09
9.5%
in ‘40

Differences between 2009 and 2016 pool
penetration rates
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1939
1942
1945
19...

Typical pools – past, present, future
Apparent trend towards smaller pools, but there are data
issues – building permit da...

Pool removal rates are approaching pool
construction rates…
… even though conservation programs aimed at
encouraging pool ...

Scottsdale has a pool removal rebate
• began in summer 2016
• $0.50/sq ft, same as for turf removal
• the area must be re-...

Three types of pool “removal”
• Quick fill – cheap, quick, but incomplete; it
leaves the decking
• Demo & fill – no visibl...

Pool statistics, Tucson Water service area
According to the Pima County Assessor, as of
January 2016 there are:
• 169,241 ...

Pima County pools are more skewed toward
high-end homes than in Maricopa County
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
7...

Home swimming pools and transition paths
New SFR
construction
SFRs with
full pool
Not nearly new
SFRs without
swimming poo...

Remote sensing shows pool status change in
4.5% of SFRs
About 1 in 22 SFRs in Tucson Water’s service
area underwent one of...

Pool removals by home value has a bivariate
distribution (2 peaks)
Two different motives? Save money vs. re-do back yard?
...

While few in number, pools in lower-valued homes
are far more likely to be abandoned or removed
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1...

0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
%ofpools
Home value decile
Percent of pools ab...

Most emptied pools are removed quickly
57% of pools are removed within 1 year; 43% are left empty
for a year or more. The ...

Remote sensing after pools removed…
…shows virtually NO instances of pools being replaced
with turf or other high-density ...

Engineering estimate of water
savings is problematic…
NET POOL WATER USE:
Pond evaporation rate x pool area
- Precipitatio...

…because all of these are uncertain
Too many unknowns and uncertainties
NET POOL WATER USE:
Pond evaporation rate x pool a...

Engineering estimate of water savings
NET POOL WATER USE:
77” pan evap = 62” pond evap x 500 sq ft pool
- 12” precipitatio...

Alternate methodology for estimating
water demand impacts of pool removal
1. Identify pools that transition from full to e...

Annual distribution of demand differences
mimics monthly evaporation rates
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9...

Estimates of average annual water savings
All pools: -0.126 CCF/day = 34,401 gals/year
But a handful of pools are more tha...

Is there a trend over time?
Apparently not…
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201...

Is water savings a function of home
construction date? Apparently not…
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
1...

Total annual costs of maintaining a pool
Cost Category Low Average High
Water and Sewer 85 105 150
Electricity 415 700 900...

Annual total costs of maintaining a pool
Average Costs
Water/Sewer
Electricity
Insurance
Property Taxes
Chemicals
Pool Com...

Non-pecuniary benefits of pool removal
Other benefits include:
• Improved safety
• less risk to children and pets
• no mor...

Conclusions:
We are likely at or well beyond peak pool:
• Pools are less popular now and removal rates are high in some ci...

“Statements of fact and opinion expressed are those of
the author(s) / presenter(s).
AZ Water, AZAWWA, and AZWEA assume no...

Share Slideshare

LinkedIn
Facebook
Twitter

Embed

Size (px)

Show related Slideshows at end

WordPress Shortcode

Link

Share
Email

2024 Trend Updates: What Really Wor... by Search Engine Jou... 1042022 views
Storytelling For The Web: Integrate... by Chiara Aliotta 954721 views
Artificial Intelligence, Data and C... by OECD Directorate ... 880306 views
How to Leverage AI to Boost Employe... by SocialHRCamp 370586 views
2024 State of Marketing Report – by... by Marius Sescu 210442 views
Everything You Need To Know About C... by Expeed Software 229923 views

View on Slideshare

1 of 36 Ad

View on Slideshare

1 of 36 Ad