Systems Tutorial - The Fundamentals

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Wed 28 March 2018 16:00 – 18:00
Out of hours public lecture
Presented by Professor
Peter Cochrane OBE
Ipswich Waterfront B...

"Simple can be harder than complex. You have to work hard
to get your thinking clean to make it simple"
Steve Jobs
"Global...

Definitions & AXIOMS
Can we describe what we mean by a system ?
This singularly simple question directs us to an
ongoing p...

“A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent
elements forming a complex whole”
The most concise deﬁnition I ca...

A functionally related group of elements, especially:
- The human body regarded as a functional physiological unit
- An or...

An organised set of interrelated ideas or principles
-A social, economic, or political organisational form
- A naturally o...

‘A system takes energy, matter, information, and transforms
their nature’
* Ergo: All Systems are Entropic
Not Published
M...

A W IDER LENS
Only art, science, and engineering
Divisions: Mathematics, Physics Chemistry, Biology, Art are all artificia...

Taking an interest in every system known to mankind pays dividends in
providing us with insights and challenging concepts ...

Systems are never stronger than their weakest element
Systems are never simpler than their most complex elements
Systems a...

• Complex systems never get easier to characterise
• Simple systems tend to get more difﬁcult to characterise
• Complex Sy...

• Simple systems tend to migrate toward complication
• Complicated systems tend to migrate toward complexity
• Complex sys...

Mother Natures propensity for Simple Systems resulting in Complex Outcomes
WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE
A natural & designed worl...

Humans propensity for Complex Systems resulting in Simple Outcomes
WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE
A natural & designed world comple...

DominantSystemTrend
WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE
We cannot manage 21C societies with 17C thinking/systems

V I S I B L E T R E N D
Irreversible progression to complexity
DESIGNED EVOLVED
Well behaved Out of control
Well Understoo...

syst e ms g e n e ra l it i es
Sureties, actualities, challenges, opportunities
Digital
Analogue
Hybrid Analogue//Digital
...

General Observations
All systems share similar mathematical/analysis frameworks
Ergo: Electrical, Electronic, Mechanical, ...

Differences: Chemistry, Biology, Sociology, Information, Network Systems/
Engineering tends to observe through a different...

‘SIMPLEst ’ SYSTEMS
Lie within the grasp of one human mind & hands Designed top down
Always predictable
Easy to specify
Ea...

S I M P L E S YS T E MS
Within the span of ‘a’ human mind or team
Designed top down
Always predictable
Easy to specify
Eas...

Difficult to understand
Designed top down
Difficult to specify
Difficult to design
Hard to model
Hard to realise
Hard to cont...

Complicated

Initial/intuitive top down design
Evolution rapidly dominates
Modelling a major challenge
Accurate speciﬁcation hard
Funda...

C O M P L E x
The concatenation of large numbers
of simple and/or complicated sub-
systems can lead to unpredicted
non-lin...

M ac h i n e D ES I G N E D
We are in (just) a realm where we have no clue!
AI + AL derived AL evolution
Impossible (?) to...

Stability
Two extremes/bounds
Conditionally Stable
Conditionally Unstable
Only becomes unstable when
there is some system ...

Output
Input
Linear : NON-LINEAR
Confusing and often confused
These are all non-linear
responses as they give
wildly diffe...

THESE DAYS HAVE Long GONE
We a r e n o w m o s t d e f i n i t e l y i n a m a c h i n e a g e

In a simple
disconnected
world... ...we can
address
problems
in isolation
...and simple
solutions
mostly work
In a complex...

BIGGEST WORRY
The majority do not comprehend
Simple linear and
a well behaved arena:
intuition, experience, &
wisdoms most...

LEMMING LIKE
Doing what they thing is right

Compounding

Fourier + Laplace - time and frequency
g(t)
f(t)❋g(t)f(t)
F(ω)
G(ω)
F(ω).G(ω)
Simple Multiplication
Complicated Convolutio...

Time
Domain
Frequency
Domain
Real
Mathematical Abstraction
Reality CHECK

Temporal
Function
Frequency
Function
Frequency
Function
Temporal
Function
Applicable to time and
s p a c e , h e a t ﬂ o w...

T RA NS FO R M AT I O NS
Analogue and Digital/Discrete) formulations

ENVIRONMENT?
s(t) h(t) o(t)
Other systems of the same or differing type may be sharing the same
space or some part of it, ...

W hat ’s in THE BOX ?
What are the limits to what we describe and deﬁne
s(t) h(t) o(t)
What can we describe and deﬁne
Opti...

AND the output ?
s(t) h(t) o(t)
In the general case it impacts/changes the
environment and the input and is often a
grossl...

FEEDBACK & FEEDBACK ?
s(t) h(t) o(t)
FB o(t)
FF s(t)
Noise reduction loop
-ve FeedBack induces stability
+ve FeedBack indu...

Fourier + Laplace - time and frequency
g(t)
f(t)❋g(t)f(t)
F(ω)
G(ω)
F(ω).G(ω)
Simple Multiplication
Complicated Convolutio...

General SYSTEM traits
s(t) h(t) o(t)
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
Simple
Singular
Linear
Complica...

All known, understood, well described and
characterised, bounded, and well behaved
with causality preserved
Contained/boun...

Response matches need
Symbiotic with the environment
Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time
Upgrades and changes...

All known, understood, well described and
characterised, bounded, and well behaved
with causality preserved
Contained/boun...

s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
One or more of these
conditions no longer holds
true
Response matche...

Man and Mother Nature…
Design, understanding, desire, intent v evolution and chance
Only we design
Only we optimise
Only w...

Mother Nature…proviso
Only evolves systems
Only builds bottom up and never top down
Only goes for ‘good enough’ and optimi...

Hundreds of diverse inputs and outputs: cannot be
fully ﬂood, or combinatorially tested…
Hundreds/thousands of feedback & ...

“Perfection is the enemy of Good Enough”
Deﬁning ‘good enough’ is not always trivial
and is generally the biggest challeng...

U N R E A L
Not realistic/impossible

T R A D E O F F S
You can’t have it all - not forever anyway

Size
Scale
Complexity
Connectivity
Sophistication
Connectivity
MTBF
Speed
Agility
Reliability
Testability
Predicability
Re...

A long storage life and very
short operational activity
HUH ??

Short storage life and very
long operational activity
HUH ??

Brittleness ALWAYS rules
Reliability/resilience and optimisation are mutually exclusive
Highly optimised components result...

η
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency
𝓷
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0...

Bathtub Reliability Curve
Failure Rate
End of life
wear out
failures
Normal/useful life
low level failures
Time
Infant mor...

0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MTBF - hours
Mean Time Betw...

System 1
System 2
System N
?
Not co-located
Not the same power feed
Not the same software
Not the same network connections...

MTBF = Mean Time Between Failures
MTTR = Mean Time To Repair
Mean = Average - and Averages don’t tell us much!
Distributio...

Resilience = The capacity to recover
Failure modes: Graceful/Phased
Predominant in the world of analogue system - precurso...

Resilience = The capacity to recover
Failure modes: catastrophic/instant
Predominant in the world of digital systems - pre...

SOme still to do’s
Specifically for the digital domain
Failure precursor detection
Integrates graceful fail mode
Pre-empti...

Real
System
Design
Example

Sniper Locating
M u l t i p l e a c o u s t i c s e n s o r s

Sniper Locating
with acoustic sensorsAcoustic Cone of
U n c e r t a i n t y
3 - 5o
Sensor
Unit
War Zone
Ambient
Noise
Dyna...

Acoustic Cone
of
U n c e r t a i n t
y
3 - 5o
Sensor
Unit Dynamic
R a n g e
Limited
~200m
In Combat Multi-Mic ArrayMODERN ...

Filtering
Post Microphone analogue/digital filtering/
processing
~~~
DSP
~~~
Noise Filtering
Directivity - Focus
Voice Cha...

Primary dynamic range limiter - the
diaphragm
Diaphragm driven to
mechanical saturation by
noise and thereby limiting
dyna...

Noise Filtering
Directivity - Focus
Voice Characteristics
Multiple analogue resonant cavity
filtering
Pre-Diaphragm acoust...

Filter Characteristic
A wide range of selectivity configurations is
possible
Naked Microphone Insert
Filter 1
Filter 2

Experimental
Multi-Array

E a c h f i lt e r/m i c
a s s e m b l y i s
m e c h a n i c a l l y
isolated by foam -
n o a c o u s t i c
linkage assemb...

Machine gun background

Sniper rifle

Ambient Battleﬁeld Noise
Sniper Riﬂe Spectrum
Containment > 95% of Sniper Spectral Energy
Filter Rejection ZoneThis region...

Ambient Battleﬁeld Noise
Sniper Riﬂe Spectrum
Containment > 95% of Sniper Spectral Energy
Filter Rejection Zone
PeaktoPeak...

Sniper rifle buried in
machine gun signal

PRE-MICROPHONE ACOUSTIC FILTERS WITH GAIN
Sniper rifle detected with pre-microphone filter
detection

Sniper Riﬂe
+
Machine Gun
Autocorrelation
Sniper Detected
Pre mic acoustic ﬁltered signal
Processing Delay

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its
way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the ...

Any further questions

or thoughts ??
cochrane.org.uk

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