Climate Politics as Manichean Paranoia

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY RESEARCH
CIRES/University of Colorado at Boulder
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.ed...

slide 2
Main points of this talk
• Debate over US climate policy can
be characterized in terms of
“Manichean paranoia”
• T...

slide 3
Manichean Paranoia
Drawing on Brzezinski, Z. (2008). Second chance:
Three presidents and the crisis of American
su...

slide 4
Example: Senator James Inhofe (R-OK)
“With all the hysteria, all the fear, all
the phony science, could it be that...

slide 5
Example: Prof. Michael Mann, Penn State
“[T]he villainy that we long suspected was taking place within
ExxonMobil ...

slide 6
The paranoid style in American politics
“[T]he paranoid is a militant leader. He does not see social
conflict as s...

slide 7
Clearing the Field

slide 8
There can be no total elimination of enemies
“This demand for total triumph leads to
the formulation of hopelessly...

slide 9
Does this sound familiar?
“The enemy is clearly delineated: he is a perfect
model of malice, a kind of amoral supe...

slide 10
Manichean paranoid-in-chief?

slide 11
World’s leading climate scientist?

slide 12
Should we care about Manichean Paranoia?
• We have to want to
• But why should we?
• Current state of the debate ...

slide 13
How democracy works
“In democratic countries you get
things done by compromising your
principles in order to form...

slide 14
How to improve the climate debate*
* If you really wanted to
Three criteria I employed to
propose 5 recommendatio...

slide 15
Five ways to improve the climate debate
1. Talk & listen in person with those
you most disagree with
2. Maintain ...

slide 16
1. Talk & listen in person with those you most disagree with

slide 17
Engagement with others is frowned upon

slide 18
Investigated by US Congress

slide 19
Wikileaks revealed behind the scenes

slide 20
Groupthink is an empirical fact
Sunstein, C. R., & Hastie, R. (2014). Making dumb
groups smarter. Harvard busines...

slide 21
Strategies to counter groupthink 1/2
• Silence the leader.
Leaders often promote self-censorship by expressing th...

slide 22
• Appoint a devil’s advocate.
If hidden profiles and self-silencing are sources of
group failure, a tempting appr...

slide 23
1. Talk & listen in person with those you most disagree with
Actionable recommendations
• Seek out those with who...

slide 24
2. Maintain the integrity of science assessments

slide 25
From my March, 2017 Congressional testimony:
Scientific assessments can be essential to policy

slide 26
A climate “red team”? Likely a bad idea

slide 27
2. Maintain the integrity of science assessments
Actionable recommendations
• Hold scientific assessments to high...

slide 28
3. Understand the Eff-U principle

slide 29
What I learned in North Dakota in 1997
What did
“49 feet” mean?
• To forecasters? WORRY. A huge flood!
• To citiz...

slide 30
What is really being communicated?
“All the ‘social marketing’ of ‘scientific
consensus’ does is augment the toxi...

slide 31
Some science issues are really about politics

slide 32
Environmental issues are partisan in US Congress

slide 33
What do people hear here?

slide 34
This 
97%
97%
97%
97%
97%
97%
97%
97%
97% 97%
97%
97%
97%
97%
97%
97%

slide 35
Some advocates get it

slide 36
Climate policy as symbolic politics

slide 37
Spot the difference
TRUMP’S BLM
OBAMA’S BLM

slide 38
3. Employ the Eff-U principle
Actionable recommendations
• Understand that words are symbols, and
some of those s...

slide 39
4. Discuss policy proposals in terms of first-year benefits

slide 40
The Iron Law of Climate Policy
“Efforts to sell the public on policies that
will create short-term economic
disco...

slide 41
The Iron Law

slide 42
The Iron Law has been quantified
Jenkins, J. D. (2014). Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies:...

slide 43
US Paris withdrawal consequences estimated:
Looks big $8.2 trillion is real money
http://www.g-feed.com/2017/06/...

slide 44
Actually, it’s just noise after we are all dead
Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Global non-linear ...

slide 45
Short-term cost estimates of Paris implementation
http://www.heritage.org/environment/report/consequences-paris-p...

slide 46
The Iron Law is central to climate politics
Key point: It is not whether one of these studies is right
and the ot...

slide 47
4. Discuss policy proposals in terms of first-year benefits
Actionable recommendations
• Know that while climate ...

slide 48
5. Debate policies through causal pathways

slide 49
How is that going to work?
MODERATION OF VIEWS
“Asking people to explain how policies work decreased their
repor...

slide 50
Causal Mechanisms vs Reason Giving
“reductions in rated
understanding of policies
were less pronounced
among part...

slide 51
Debate policy mechanics, not your beliefs
“Political debate might be
more productive if
partisans first engaged i...

slide 52
Source: BP 2017
R. Pielke, Jr.
Example: Global carbon-free energy consumption

slide 53
NOTE: To achieve >90% global
carbon-free energy by ~2090
requires a linear (additive) increase
of ~1% per year. F...

slide 54
Climate Policy Conventional Wisdom
Win public opinion via closing
the science deficit (consensus!
extreme weather...

slide 55
Where Conventional Wisdom Fails
Win public opinion via closing
the science deficit (consensus!
extreme weather!),...

slide 56
What Really Happens
Win public opinion via closing
the science deficit (consensus!
extreme weather!), defeating
t...

slide 57
An Alternative: Climate Policy Pragmatism
Focus on innovation with the
goal of making clean energy
cheap. Pay for...

slide 58
5. Debate policies through causal pathways
Actionable recommendations
• Express the mechanics of your preferred
p...

slide 59
Why improve the climate debate at all?
1. POLITICS

slide 60
Why improve the climate debate at all?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/china-new-silk-road-bumpy-ride/
2. ...

slide 61
Five ways to improve the climate debate
1. Talk & listen in person
with those you most
disagree with
2. Maintain ...

slide 62
Thank You
 pielke@colorado.edu
 Blogs:
– http://theclimatefix.wordpress.com
– http://thehonestbroker.org
– http...

Share SlideShare

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn

Embed

Size (px)

Show related SlideShares at end

WordPress Shortcode

Link

Share
Email

2024 Trend Updates: What Really Wor... by Search Engine Jou... 68066 views
Storytelling For The Web: Integrate... by Chiara Aliotta 56853 views
Artificial Intelligence, Data and C... by OECD Directorate ... 41451 views
How to Leverage AI to Boost Employe... by SocialHRCamp 17889 views
2024 State of Marketing Report – by... by Marius Sescu 78850 views
Everything You Need To Know About C... by Expeed Software 110864 views

Top clipped slide

1 of 62 Ad

1 of 62 Ad