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© 2015 International Monetary Fund
IMF Country Report No. 15/69
UKRAINE
REQUEST FOR EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE
EXTENDE...

UKRAINE
REQUEST FOR EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE
EXTENDED FUND FACILITY AND CANCELLATION OF
STAND-BY ARRANGEMENT
EXECUTI...

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2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
governance reforms, including anti-corruption and judicial measures, deregulation
an...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3
Approved By
Thanos Arvanitis and
Mark Flanagan
Discussions were held in Kyiv during ...

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STRUCTURAL REFORMS _________________________________________________________________...

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Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies_________________________...

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INTRODUCTION
1. Ukraine initiated ambitious reforms under the SBA, but recent develo...

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Ukraine: Revised Macro Projections
Source: IMF staff calculations.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0...

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RECENT ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTS
5. Ukraine experienced a sharp output fall
in 2014, dri...

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6. Inflation reached 24.9 percent at end-2014, driven mostly by the sharp exchange r...

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10. Despite the difficult economic situation, recent developments give rise to caut...

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sustainable debt path; (iv) measures to keep Naftogaz’s deficit on course to be eli...

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appropriate burden sharing, with just under one-half of the financing gap filled by...

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the context of the G7 discussions. Additional bilateral support, including for reco...

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machinery and equipment. Domestic trade and agricultural production will also incre...

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would continue to decline beyond 2020. Private external debt will be reduced by the...

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Economic Indicators during Past Emerging Market Currency Crises, 1990–2014
(T indic...

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MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
A. Background
18. Amidst a challenging environmen...

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for central government needs and critical energy imports in amounts factored into t...

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 Group 1 banks: For the nine large banks that needed a capital increase, and for w...

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26. Taking these factors into account, the cost of bank restructuring in 2014–15 is...

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 Revise the existing related party lending framework. The authorities will analyze...

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induce fair and balanced negotiations. By end-June 2015, the authorities will estab...

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Box 1. Authorities’ Tax Policy Changes
Parliament has approved a package of signifi...

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Fiscal Measures in 2015 Approved and Supplementary Budgets
Consolidation strategy a...

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consolidation in items that expanded fast in 2010–13 (wages, pensions, and subsidie...

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Box 2. The Impact of the Crisis on Households
The economic crisis has adversely aff...

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Fiscal Institutional Reforms
35. Fiscal institutions will be strengthened to achiev...

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ENERGY POLICY
A. Background
39. Progress was made during 2014 in tackling Naftogaz’...

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to undertake bold measures with the aim of reducing Naftogaz’s deficit to 3.1 perce...

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expected to be enacted by April 2015 (structural benchmark). The law will provide a...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 31
agencies (except by fiscal authorities). With the assistance of the EBRD, a busines...

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47. The government recognizes that decisive implementation of reforms is a prerequi...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 33
processes. Following up on the recommendations of the July Diagnostic Report, the r...

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frontloading gross disbursements of SDR 7.092 billion (about US$10 billion) in 2015...

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policy undertakings to launch the new program are implemented in full and the upcom...

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a major concern for the authorities. However, their willingness and capacity to imp...

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NBU (MEFP ¶37). The government and NBU signed an agreement in May 2014 on the respe...

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decisive implementation of the banking strategy would be crucial to regain public c...

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capacity remains adequate despite the risks. The stabilization and growth-supportin...

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Figure 1. Ukraine: Real Sector Indicators, 2011–14
Sources: State Statistics Commit...

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Figure 2. Ukraine: Inflation, Monetary, and Exchange Rate Developments, 2011–15
(Ye...

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Figure 3. Ukraine: External Sector Developments, 2011–14
(Billions of U.S. dollars,...

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Figure 4. Ukraine: Debt and Rollover of Debt, 2011–16 1/
Sources:National Bank ofUk...

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Figure 5. Ukraine: Banking Sector Deposits and Credit, 2014–15
Sources: National au...

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Figure 6. Ukraine: Financial Sector Indicators, 2011–14
(Billions of Ukrainian hryv...

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Figure 7. Ukraine: Structural Reforms
Sources: World Bank, Doing Business Indicator...

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Table 1. Ukraine: Program Scenario – Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2013–...

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Table 2. Ukraine: Program Scenario – General Government Finances, 2013–20 1/
(Billi...

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Table 2. Ukraine: Program Scenario – General Government Finances, 2013–20 (Conclude...

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Table 3. Ukraine: Program Scenario – Balance of Payments, 2014–20
(Billions of U.S....

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Table 4. Ukraine: Program Scenario – Gross External Financing Requirements, 2014–20...

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Table 5. Ukraine: Program Scenario – Monetary Accounts, 2013–20
Prog. Prog. Prog. P...

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Table 6. Ukraine: Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2009–14
(P...

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Table 7. Information on Commitments Stipulated by the IMF Stand-By Program
Commitme...

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Table 7. Information on Commitments Stipulated by the IMF Stand-By Program (conclud...

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Table 8. Ukraine: Prior Actions and Structural Benchmarks
Prior actions Status Comp...

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Table 8. Ukraine: Prior Actions and Structural Benchmarks (concluded)
Structural be...

Table 9. Ukraine: Indicators of Fund Credit, 2014–25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Stock of ...

Table 10. Ukraine: Proposed Schedule of Purchases Under the Extended Arrangement
Date
Millions of
SDRs
Millions of
US$ 1/
...

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Annex I. Regional Economic Developments in Ukraine
Tale of Three Regions
Recent ind...

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 Tax revenues from the East declined heavily, and were exacerbated by the governme...

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Figure 1. Ukraine: High Frequency Indicators by Regions
(Y-O-Y Period over Period G...

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Figure 2: Ukraine: Developments in the East, 2014
Source: State Statistics Service ...

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Figure 3. Ukraine: Credit Developments by Region, 2014
Source: National authorities...

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Annex II. Debt Sustainability Analysis
Under the policy and financing package suppo...

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attain a primary surplus of about 1.6 percent (Figure 3). This path is ambitious in...

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B. Public Sector DSA
7. The coverage of public debt in this DSA includes: (i) centr...

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lead public debt to peak at about 94 percent of GDP. Once the debt operation is com...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 69
financing needs, raising it to an average of more than 20 percent of GDP during the...

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Annex II. Figure 1. Ukraine Public DSA Risk Assessment
Ukraine
Source: IMF staff.
5...

Annex II. Figure 2. Ukraine Public DSA – Realism of Baseline Assumptions
Source : IMF Staff.
1/ Plotted distribution inclu...

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Annex II. Figure 3. Ukraine Public DSA – Baseline Scenario
(in percent of GDP unles...

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Annex II. Figure 4. Ukraine Public DSA – Composition of Public Debt and Alternate S...

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Annex II. Figure 5. Ukraine Public DSA – Stress Tests
Primary Balance Shock 2015 20...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 75
Annex II. Figure 6. Ukraine: External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/
(External...

Annex II. Table 1. Ukraine: Program External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2012‒20
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indi...

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Appendix. Ukraine: Letter of Intent
Kyiv, February 27, 2015
Ms. Christine Lagarde
M...

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towards: (i) a low and stable inflation within a flexible exchange rate policy that...

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Attachment I. Ukraine: Memorandum of Economic and
Financial Policies
I. Recent Deve...

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strengthen competitiveness and the business environment and together with a return ...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 81
international reserves over the medium term; (iii) strengthening the NBU’s institut...

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are discussing with the People’s Bank of China an extension of the existing swap li...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 83
d. NBU general reserves and profit distribution. Profit distribution rules between ...

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84 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
B. Financial Sector Policies
12. A central objective of our program is the steady a...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 85
d. Prudential review of bank reports. By end-September 2015, the NBU, with technica...

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i. NBU monitoring. The NBU will closely monitor implementation of agreed unwinding
...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 87
commitments to maintain their credit lines or related deposits in the banks in amou...

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capital of 7 percent and tier II capital 3 percent) by end-December 2018. Should th...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 89
to submit to parliament legislation to introduce such reforms to ensure that a prop...

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90 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
21. To this end, and notwithstanding the adverse economic environment, we are aimin...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 91
b. On the revenue side, in view of the need to reduce the heavy tax burden while br...

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tax revenues (VAT, profit, and royalty taxes), helping to offset the additional cos...

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Expenditure reforms
a. Parametric pension reform. We recognize the need for a compr...

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(i) rationalization and reduction of higher education institutions from 802 to 317;...

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k. Extractive industry taxation. We will introduce a new fiscal regime for the extr...

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e. Budget execution. We will: (i) Introduce commitment control system to the budget...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 97
by 2017. These steps will be supported by a fundamental restructuring of the compan...

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to not less than UAH 1793/tcm, excluding VAT and mark-up tax. After that, heating p...

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iv. Naftogaz restructuring. We support Naftogaz’s restructuring to reduce losses ca...

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a. Program consolidation, benefits, and administrative capacity: By May 31, 2015, ...

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allow for investment in multi-housing apartment buildings where the majority of he...

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any information on investigations, if relevant for the performance of its function...

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iii. Domestic Cooperation. Proper arrangements will be put in place to facilitate ...

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that all draft laws and regulations include proper RIAs to protect against reemerg...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 105
hampering the effectiveness of the procedure in such areas as definitional issues,...

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should be made subject to restructuring, propose specific measures to restructure ...

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database with historic and current information on the financial performance of the...

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benchmarks. For all reviews, quantitative performance criteria will include: a cei...

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Table 1. Ukraine: Prior Actions and Structural Benchmarks
Prior actions Status Com...

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Table 1. Ukraine: Prior Actions and Structural Benchmarks (concluded)
Structural b...

Table 2. Ukraine: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets 1/
(End of period; millions of Ukrainian hryvni...

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Annex. Schedule of Bank Reporting, NBU Review, and
Banks’ Reduction of the Excess ...

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Attachment II. Ukraine: Technical Memorandum of
Understanding
February 27, 2015
1....

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I. Quantitative Performance Criteria, Indicative Ceilings, and Continuous
Performa...

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 the nominal value of all derivative positions1
(including swaps, options, forwar...

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Adjustment mechanism
 The NIR targets will be adjusted upward (downward) by the f...

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Table C. Purchases of Foreign Exchange from NBU for the Purposes of Critical Energ...

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equivalent of US$500 million, calculated using the program exchange rate defined i...

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C. Ceiling on Cumulative Change in Monetary Base of the NBU
(Base Money)
(Indicati...

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D. Ceiling on Cash Deficit of the General Government
(Performance Criterion)
Defin...

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 the difference between disbursements and amortization on any bond issued by the ...

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Table E. External Financing of General Government Projects—Adjustment
Cumulative f...

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12. The ceilings on the cash deficit of the general government at end-March, end-J...

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 the difference between disbursements of private foreign loans to Naftogaz (inclu...

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G. Ceiling on Non-Accumulation of New External Debt Payments Arrears by the
Genera...

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III. Reporting Requirements
A. National Bank of Ukraine
21. The NBU will continue ...

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29. The NBU will keep providing to the IMF, on a monthly basis, general informatio...

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36. The NBU will provide to the IMF, on a daily basis, data on foreign exchange ex...

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42. The NBU will provide the IMF, on a two weekly basis, with daily data on the to...

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commissions; total expenses; interest expenses (on deposits to legal entities, dep...

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55. The NBU Internal Audit Department will continue to provide an assurance report...

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in a format agreed with IMF staff, 10-day basis data on revenue of the state, loca...

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66. The Ministry of Finance will provide monthly information, no later than 25 day...

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of its costs for the current and two subsequent fiscal years, for the state and lo...

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78. The SFS will provide on a quarterly basis but no later than 25 days after the ...

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84. For each quarter, no later than the 25th
of the following month, the Ministry ...

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Annex
Occupations defined in the Law of Ukraine on Pensions that are eligible for ...

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ASSESSMENT OF THE RISKS TO THE FUND AND THE
FUND'S LIQUIDITY POSITION
Approved By
Andrew Tweedie and
Mark Flanagan...

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2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
INTRODUCTION
1. This note assesses the risks to the Fund arising from the proposed a...

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BACKGROUND
2. Ukraine has had an extensive financial relationship with the Fund sinc...

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Type of New Date of Date of Expiration Amount of New Amount Fund
Year Arrangement Ar...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 5
4. Ukraine’s total external debt-to-GDP is now very high, reflecting the sharp GDP
c...

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crisis. In 2015, it is projected to remain almost at the 2014 level. Nonetheless, as...

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Figure 1. Ukraine: Debt Ratios for Recent Exceptional Access Arrangements 1/
Source:...

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8 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
THE NEW ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED
FUND FACILITY—RISKS AND IMPACT ON FUND’S
FINA...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 9
 If all purchases were made as scheduled, peak Fund exposure to Ukraine would consi...

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Figure 3. Peak Fund Exposure and Debt Service Ratios for Recent
Exceptional Access ...

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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
2015...

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12 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
9. While the proposed arrangement is expected to unlock some financial assistance f...

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Exposure and Repayments (In SDR millions)
GRA credit...

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B. Impact on the Fund’s Liquidity Position and Risk Exposure
10. The proposed exten...

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Table 5. Ukraine—Impact on GRA Finances
(millions of SDR unless otherwise noted)
So...

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Figure 6. Exceptional Access Levels and Credit Concentration
Source: Finance Depart...

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ASSESSMENT
11. The program faces exceptionally high risks. As highlighted in the st...

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in end-user prices may not yield the expected revenues, owing to the confluence of ...

UKRAINE
REQUEST FOR EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE
EXTENDED FUND FACILITY AND CANCELLATION OF
STAND-BY ARRANGEMENT—SUPPLEM...

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2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
imports.1
At the same time, bank lending in hryvnia for purchase of FX was banned
an...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3
effectiveness of the new measures, including indicators of capital flight and return...

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4 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
balance of payments situation improves, including on the back of support from extern...

UKRAINE
REQUEST FOR EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE
EXTENDED FUND FACILITY AND CANCELLATION OF
STAND-BY ARRANGEMENT—SUPPLEM...

UKRAINE
2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
 Exchange restriction arising from absolute limits on the availability of foreign e...

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3
4. The authorities have requested Fund approval for the retention of all the
exchang...

Press Release No. 15/107
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 11, 2015
IMF Executive Board Approves 4-Year US$17.5 Billion Extended...

2
including weak governance. The authorities recognize that the resolute implementation of the
program is critical to rest...

3
reform-oriented and sustainable policies with strong ownership. The authorities’ program
responds appropriately to prese...

4
 Advancing structural reforms. Decisive efforts will help revitalize the business
climate, attract investment, and enha...

Statement by Menno Snel, Executive Director for Ukraine
and Oleksandr Petryk, Alternate Executive Director
March 11, 2015
...

2
setback. The decline in production was observed in almost all basic industries. Industrial
output fell by 10.1 percent; ...

3
These measures already yielded positive results. On March 6, 2015 the exchange rate
appreciated to 22.5–23 Hryvnia/US$.
...

4
distortive taxes. The revenue performance was in line with projections under the SBA.
Wages, pensions and social benefit...

5
operational. Unfortunately, all these efforts were offset by the depreciation of the exchange
rate. This, together with ...

6
provide Ukraine with the necessary breathing space to continue implementing the policies
required to meet the program ob...

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