Campbell B: Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity

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Climate Change, Food Security and
Diversity
Bruce Campbell, Director, CCAFS

1. Climate change impacts on agriculture
2. The global challenges for food and nutritional security
3. Climate-smart agric...

IPCC AR5 in April 2014:
global diagnosis for the next seven years?

Working Group 2
Chapter 7 (Chapter 19)
Working Group 3
Chapter 11

Chapter 7

• Global surface temperature change likely to
exceed 1.5 C by 2100
• Large spatial and temporal variability
• Extreme even...

Evidence that yields losses occur already
Lobell et al 2011

Cheung et al 2010

Warren et al 2013
Major biodiversity loss predicted
Plant
Proportion
of species
losing
>50% of
range
20802050
Year
Animal
...

2. The global challenges for food and
nutritional security

1.5
billion
people
depend on
Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to
extreme Weather (2010)
1 billion more
People by 2030
1....

Sustainable Development Goals (2030)
• End extreme poverty, including absolute
income poverty ($1.25 or less per day).
• E...

Are these targets insurmountable?
“63 million customers per day,
so 500 million smallholders in
the next decade is easy!”
...

And with reduced emissions from Ag
Gt CO2e per year
12 15
36
70
2010 2050
(Business as usual)
2050
(2°C target)
Non-agricu...

3. Climate-smart agriculture

services
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA)
landscapes
crops
livestock
fish
food system
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
policies
peatl...

technological
innovations to
generate
weather data
Greater focus on climate risk management
Forecasting
From satellite to ...

Alternate
wetting
and drying
in rice

Integrated solutions:
Climate-
smart
villages

4. Diversity as a key to adaptation

CSA options for food systems
food system
More creative
and efficient use
of by-products
Less energy-
intensity in
fertiliz...

CSA options for landscapes
landscapes
Ensure close links
between practice
and policy (e.g.
land use zoning)
Manage livesto...

CSA options for crops, fields and farms
crops
Crop diversification and
“climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering crop...

Role of crop diversity
• Outer limits of heat, drought, waterlogging, salinity ……
• Useful source of traits to adapt to ch...

Priority 1: Conserving, collecting and pre-
breeding crop wild relatives
But where do we start?

Priority 2: Tackle the
policy challenges
• Simplified production
systems
• Seed policies that focus on
few crops/varieties...

Strategic Action Plan to Conserve and Use
Mesoamerica Plant Genetic Resources
• 10 year road map
• Comprises 64 actions un...

Priority 3: ‘Seeds for Needs’
Crop
suitability
Geographic
information
Genebank accession
collection coordinates
Climate
ch...

3. Farmers
test and
report back by
mobile phone
2. Each farmer gets a
different combination
of varieties
4. Environmental
...

• Indian Agriculture
Research Institute
• Directorate of Wheat
Research
• Humana People to People
• Gene Campaign
• Ashok ...

Closing remarks

Example: Seasonal
weather forecasts in
Senegal
2 million farmers get forecasts
15 community radio stations
better food ...

Towards more transformative change

We can do it!
Diversity and diversification
Major impacts
Transformative change
Severe targets

www.ccafs.cgiar.org
sign up for blogs and news e-bulletins
Twitter: @bcampbell_CGIAR
@cgiarclimate
Increased investment
in...

Campbell B: Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity

Campbell B: Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity

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