Stories to Watch 2014

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1

FEATURING

Andrew Steer
President and CEO, WRI
Image: Flickr/NA.dir

345

consecutive months
hotter than the 20th
century average

Source: IMF, 2013
Image: Flickr/lapstrake; Source: NOAA, 201...

RECESSION OVER
7%
6%
5%

GDP GROWTH

4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
2007

Source: IMF, 2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
...

EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST
16%
14%

GDP GROWTH

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2007
-2%

Source: IMF, 2013

BRAZIL
2008...

GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK

Real GDP
(2005 dollars)

$100tr
2030

$50tr
$30tr
$15 trillion

1990

1970

Source: U....

EXPLOSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS

5 Billion

2 Billion
1 Billion
1990
Source: Reuters, OECD 2010

2010

2030

PRESSURE ON PLANET GROWING
2.5 billion

Number of
Vehicles

1.5 billion

750 million

1990
Image: Wikipedia, Source: Sperl...

THE BIG QUESTION

Can we have economic growth
and tackle sustainability at the
same time?

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

1 THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW WILL
THEY GROW?

Image: istockphoto

CITIES ARE BOOMING

274,000
people added to cities
each day for next 30 years
Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat

CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS

65%

global GDP
growth in
major cities

Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company

BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES

• 70% of GHG emissions
come from cities
• 10% GDP lost to congestion
• 1.3 million people di...

THIS?

Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon

OR THIS?

Image: Flikr/Andreas

CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?
Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)

Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011,...

CITIES IN THE LEAD

Image: istockphoto

ALL EYES ON BRAZIL

$6.5bn
spent on the World Cup

Image: Wikipedia; Source: EMBARQ

FIFA 2014 WORLD CUP

3m

more visitors
in 2014

Source: Fifa.com

ALL EYES ON BRAZIL

85%
of Brazilians
live in cities
Image: istockphoto; Source: World Bank

TAKING IT TO THE STREETS

1m+

people on the
streets June 2013

Image: Flickr/Semilla Luz; Source: The Guardian

CREATING BETTER CITIES: URBAN MOBILITY LAW

3,000
Image: Flickr/EMBARQ; Source: EMBARQ

cities to create
plans by 2015

BETTER CITIES: BUS RAPID TRANSIT

12m

passengers per day

Image: Flickr/Guilherme Mendes Thomaz; Source: BRTdata.org

WHAT TO WATCH
1. What signals does
Brazil send on the
future of its cities?
2. Which way will
cities grow?

Image: Flickr/...

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?

2
1 RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTA...

FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE

50
Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI

soccer fields
lost each minute

BUT, THERE’S HOPE…

2bn
Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration

hectares with
opportunities for forest...

SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS
1960

2000

Image: WRI

NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY

Pre-1990s

Image: WRI

Today

THE BONN CHALLENGE

150m
hectares under
restoration by 2020

Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI

BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS

150m RESTORED HECTARES
• $84 billion in benefits annually
• 47 gigatons of CO2e captured
• 17% r...

A GROWING MOVEMENT

BRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR
(1m ha)
(1m ha)
(1m ha)

Source: WRI

RWANDA
(2m ha)

USA
(15m h...

WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will more countries
make commitments
when they meet in
June 2014?
2. Will a new global
movement for
resto...

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?

SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?

...

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

400%
increase in palm oil
production in 20 years

Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

50%

of grocery store
products contain
palm oil

Source: National Geographic 2013

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI

A NEW APPROACH

“There is a strong and rapidly
growing demand for traceable,
deforestation-free palm oil, and we
intend to...

A NEW APPROACH

A NEW APPROACH
16

Percentage of Total Area

14
12

Roundtable on
Sustainable Palm Oil
Certified Production Area

10
8
6
4...

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace

WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will better information
expedite the shift to
sustainable palm oil?
2. Will other industries
follow?

Ima...

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?

SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?

...

2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION

189
days of high pollution
in Beijing in 2013

Image: Flickr/Leniners

POPULAR UNREST

3m

mentions of
“PM 2.5” on SINA
WEIBO, Jan 2013

Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian

A DRIVER OF POLLUTION

50%
Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013

global coal
consumed
by China

CHINA’S PROPOSED POWER PLANTS

363
COAL PLANTS
PROPOSED

Source: WRI

WATER-ENERGY NEXUS

51%
ARE IN AREAS
OF HIGH WATER
STRESS

Source: WRI

CLIMATE CHANGE: A “SERIOUS THREAT”

“Climate change is already a
serious threat to food, water,
ecological and energy secu...

TAKING ACTION: AIR

$277bn
budgeted for anti-pollution
measures in the next 5 years

Image: WRI; Source: China Daily

TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL

Ban on New Coal Plants
in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou

Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; sour...

TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT

8 cities
in China fined by
provincial government
for air pollution

Image: Flickr/Bert Van Dji...

TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES

50%

of all new power
capacity added
in Jan-Oct

Image: Flickr/Yuek Hahn ; Source: Nationa...

HOW WILL PILOTS PERFORM?

7

emissions trading
systems running
in 2014

Source: ChinaFAQs

WHAT TO WATCH
1. A tipping point on air
pollution?
2. More progress to rein
in coal?
3. Will new renewables
outpace fossil...

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?

SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?

...

AN APPROACHING DEADLINE

New Guidelines
Issued by EPA by June 1, 2014

Image: Flickr/Mike_tn; Source: EPA

POWER PLANTS ACCOUNT FOR 1/3 OF U.S. EMISSIONS

26% Coal-Fired
Power Plants

6% Natural Gas-Fired
Power Plants
1% Other
Po...

U.S. EMISSIONS TARGET

17%
Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House

emissions
reduction
by 2020

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN NEW RULE

31%

reduction in GHG
emissions below
2011 by 2020

Image: Flickr/Alex Lang; Source: WRI

74...

COAL UNDER PRESSURE

98
Image: Flickr/Jonathan Haeber; Source: EIA

plants retired
in last two years

“RIPE FOR RETIREMENT”

45%
Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS

of U.S. coal plants
announced or ripe
for retirement (UCS)

2014: IS CCS FINALLY HERE?

Kemper Project
Image: Wikipedia

WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will EPA rules
be ambitious?
2. Will a US medium-term
strategy emerge?

Image: Flickr/wigwam

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?

SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?

...

NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS

Source: UNFCCC

IMPACTS MOUNTING

Image: Flickr/Rembcc

UNBURNABLE CARBON
3000

Coal 65%

2500

Two thirds of
reserves
“unburnable”

Gt CO2

2000

1500

1000

Oil 22%
500

Gas 13...

SUBSIDIZING THE WRONG THING

$2tn
Image: Flickr/Berardo62; Source: IMF

annual energy
subsidies (IMF)

IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL

Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden

“RISKY BUSINESS” – JUNE

Images: Wikipedia

NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER

Image: WRI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER

Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange

PATHWAY TO PARIS

Image: Wikimedia

WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will growing evidence
spur public pressure?
2. How will heads
of state respond?

Image: Flickr/Philip Roe...

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?

SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?

...

A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY

• 3 of the 4 largest democracies
to elect heads of government
• 25% of world’s population
• 40% o...

ELECTIONS: BRAZIL

136m
voters in Brazil

Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA

ELECTIONS: INDIA

780m
voters in India

Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA

ELECTIONS: INDONESIA

160m
voters in Indonesia

Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA

ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION

Image: Flickr.EEAS

U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Image: istockphoto

ELECTIONS MATTER

Image: Wikipedia

WHAT TO WATCH
1. Which way will these
elections go?
2. What will the results
tell us about
economic
development and
sustai...

1

THE YEAR OF CITIES:
HOW WILL THEY GROW?

2

RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION
HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

3

SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL:
A N...

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