Crisis and Trust in National and European Union institutions – Pane...

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Crisis and Trust in National and European Union
institutions – Panel Evidence for the EU, 1999 to 2012
Felix Roth
OECD Wor...

Structure of Presentation
I.

Introduction

II.

Theoretical links

III.

Model specification, research design and data

I...

I.

Introduction

•

Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 acted as the starting point of the
most severe financ...

II. Theoretical links

4

2.1

The consequences of citizens declining trust in the national
Government and Parliament – General Arguments

•

Suffic...

Excourse 1: Application to the current ongoing Euro Area Crisis
•

•

•

•

•

Without sufficient levels of citizens trust...

2.2

Driving factors of declining trust in national and
European governmental institutions?

• Stevenson and Wolfers (2011...

III. Model specification, research design and data

8

1. Model specification
The Baseline equation takes the following form:

Trust it = αi + β Unemployment it +  Inflation it...

2. Research Design and Data
i)

Dependent Variable: Semester data on net trust in the NG, NP, EC and EP between 19992012. ...

IV. Descriptive Statistics

11

Figure 1.
Trust in the national government and European Commission in the EU15/27 (1999–2012)

Notes: NG = national govern...

Figure 2.
Trust in national parliaments and the European Parliament in the EU15/27 (1999–2012)

Notes: NP = national parli...

Table 1.
Net trust levels and changes in net trust in the EA12, EU15, NMS12 and EU27 (2008–12)
Trust

Level: 3-5/ 2008

Le...

Excourse 2: Low Levels of Systemic Trust and the Europe 2020 Strategy
i) In the EU citizens levels of systemic trust are t...

Table 2.
Net trust levels and changes in net trust in the EA8 and EA4 and across selected EA12
countries (2008–12)
Sample/...

Figure 3.
Trust in national and EU institutions in the EA4 (1999–2012)

Notes: The EA4 comprises Spain, Greece, Portugal a...

Excourse 3: Comparing Net Trust vs. Net Support for the Euro in the EA-4

Notes: The data and time series depicted in abov...

Figure 4.
Trust in national and EU institutions in the EA-8 (1999–2012)

Notes: The EA8 comprises Germany, France, Italy, ...

Figure 5.
Scatter plot between delta unemployment and delta trust

Trust NP

50

Trust NG
de

fr

it

fr
pt

-100 -50

ie
...

V. Econometric Analysis

21

Table 3.
Unemployment and trust in the NG and NP, fixed-effects DFGLS estimations, EA12
1

2

3

4

5

6

NG
FS

NG
BC

NG...

Table 5.
Sensitivity analysis for the baseline fixed effects DFGLS model, EA12
Row

Specification change

NG

NP

EC

EP

...

Coherence with previous empirical results
Our econometric results are in line with the empirical findings of Stevenson and...

VI. Conclusions
Concerning trust in the NG and NP, the crisis has not led to a universal
decline of trust. The core countr...

i)
When analysing an EU15/27 country sample, one detects moderate declines in
trust in the national government and parliam...

v)
The highly significant and negative relationship between unemployment and
trust is strongly driven by the crisis period...

VII. Policy Conclusions
i)

Unemployment rates of 25% in Spain and Greece in the aftermath of the financial crisis are
pol...

Appendix

29

Figure A1.
Net trust in the national government, by EU27 country (1999–2012)
Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep

Denmark...

Figure A2.
Net trust in the national parliament, by EU27 country (1999–2012)
Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep

Denmark...

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