CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT)

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1
The CCAFS Regional Agricultural
Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT)
James Hansen, Theme 2 Leader
International Research Institut...

2
What is CRAFT?
• Software platform to support within-season forecasting of crop
production; secondarily, risk analysis a...

3
What is CCAFS?
• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR)
and global change (Future Earth) research co...

4
What is CCAFS?
• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR)
and global change (Future Earth) research co...

5
What is CCAFS?
• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR)
and global change (Future Earth) research co...

6
What is CCAFS?
• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR)
and global change (Future Earth) research co...

7
Risk
analysis
Inputsupply
management
Farmer
advisories
Food security
early warning,
planning
Trade planning,
strategic i...

8
Why CRAFT?
Meets an unmet need
• Platform to facilitate research, testing and implementation
of crop forecasting methods...

9
Basics of yield forecasting:
Uncertainty
• Consider yields simulated
with monitored weather
thru current date, then
samp...

10
Basics of yield forecasting:
Reducing uncertainty
Uncertainty
planting anthesis harvest
Time
model uncertainty
climate ...

11
Incorporating seasonal forecasts:
Queensland wheat study (2004)
• WSI-type crop model
• PC1 of GCM (ECHAM4.5)
rainfall,...

12
Linking crop simulation models and
seasonal climate forecasts statistically
forecast
date
harvest
model
initialization
...

13
Versions:
• Windows 95+
• Linux batch
• Windows batch (for CRAFT)
Incorporating seasonal forecasts:
CPT
Climate Predict...

14
Why CPT?
Address problems that arose in RCOFs:
• Slow production made pre-forum workshops expensive
and prohibited mont...

15
What CPT does
• Statistical forecasting
• Statistical downscaling
coarse resolution
fine resolution
statistical model
d...

16
What CPT does
• Statistical forecasting
• Statistical downscaling
• Designed to use gridded data (GCM output and SSTs)
...

17
CPT: Principal Components (PCs)
• Explain maximum amounts of variance within data
• Capture important patterns of varia...

18
CPT: Canonical Correlation Analysis
(CCA)
July (top) and December (bottom)
tropical Pacific sea-surface
temperature ano...

19
CPT: Which method?
Predictor
Predictand
(simulated yield)
Method
Point-wise Point-wise Multiple regression
Spatial patt...

20
CCAFS structure:
Yield forecast work flow
WEATHER
SOIL
CULTIVAR
MANAGEMENT
CROP MODEL
(DSSAT CSM)
SIMULATED YIELDS
STAT...

21
CROP SIMULATOR
IMPORT
PROCESS MANAGER
U
S
E
R
I
N
T
E
R
F
A
C
E
CROP MODEL MANAGER
CCAFS Modules
EXTERNAL ENGINES
INPUT...

22
Steps: yield forecast run
• Step 1 – Prepare/Review Data Sets
• Step 2 – Create Project & Run
• Step 3 – Link Data Sour...

23
Home Page
• Main Menu
• Connect
application to
desired database,
and test
• Lists 5 most recent
projects
• Project Name...

24
Data Upload
• CCAFS pre-loaded
with default data
(currently South
Asia).
• Users can upload
data: crop mask,
cultivar, ...

25
Management
Define input levels
– Field, Cultivar,
Planting, Irrigation,
Fertilizer – using
Management menu
from the men...

26
Project
• Search or select
existing project,
or create new
project
• Navigate to data
source form for
active run of
act...

27
Data Sources
• Customize run
by selecting
uploaded or
default data
sources
• Drop-down lists
of previously
uploaded dat...

28
Apply Inputs
• Tabbed details of
available Levels,
and a grid to show
the applied levels
for specified ‘Type
of Data’
•...

29
Run Project
• Executes current
active project with
configured data
sources and applied
inputs
• On successful
execution...

30
Visualization
• Displays user-
selected output
variables and
statistics
• Interactive grid
cell selection
• Display, ma...

31
User interface summary
SPATIAL
DATA
MANAGEMENT
DATA
PROJECT &
RUN SETUP
RUN
PROJECT
RESULTS
Import
default data
sets – ...

32
Major planned enhancements
• Generalize locations, grid schemes, user inputs
• Crop model interoparability (AgMIP)
• Ad...

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