COVID and State and Local Government

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COVID and State and
Local Government
Examining the impacts COVID is having and expected
to have on state and local governm...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
2
Normally revenues more volatile than economy. Today less so and
much of decline in ch...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
3
Public sector is usually a stabilizing force,
with delayed recession impacts

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
4
Deep Local Cuts… …To Education and Non-Ed Alike
But today is different. Why?

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
5
• We’ll come back to education (note: in
Oregon, universities are local, not state go...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
6
Occupation Level Percent
Archivists, Curators, and Museum Technicians 906 20.0%
Educa...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
7
Possible Reasons for Declines
• Usually budget cuts, but not enough time
yet for this...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
8
Also applies to higher education
(based on informal conversations with local institut...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
9
School closures have bigger economic
impact in terms of workforce needs
11%
For more:...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
10
Inequities in access to technology
For more: https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2020...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
11
In CPS, the decline in employment among female college grads results in higher unemp...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
12
Oregon’s General Fund Outlook
Current revenues much better than expected,
some tied ...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
13
Federal relief supports income Nature of recession
Why are revenues better?

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
14
Some Destinations Fare Better
than Others
Bend is probably among the strongest in na...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
15
Residential
Even as home prices slow in the future, values not expected
to decline. ...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
16
Summary
• Large declines in public sector employment are rather unusual and
tend to ...

Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
17
Contact
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(97...

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