Economic outlook may_2013 (1)

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Atradius Economic Outlook
1
Economic Outlook
May 2013

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Editorial
n last November’s Economic Outlook we argued
that we had moved away from the abyss o...

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Table of contents
Executive summary ……….……………………...………….……. 4
1 The global macroeconomic envir...

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Executive summary
The global economic environment has weakened
over the past six months and we...

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1. The global macroeconomic
environment
Light at the end of the tunnel remains faint
The globa...

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No relief from fiscal policy…
low global growth calls for expansionaryS
government policy, fir...

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inflation and financial market access. Relief should
come from monetary policy, which continue...

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In a bid to pull the Japanese economy out of its
deflationary spiral, in April the Bank of Jap...

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Chart 1.9 Private flows to the perifery
(in Euro billion)
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
3...

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in the US is in better shape following interventions
since the 2008 crisis that have allowed ...

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Despite this, the most important, if not critical, step,
involving the break of the vicious l...

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with other major regions also seeing downward
adjustments.
The faint rays of light in advance...

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2. Prospects and risks in advanced
economies
A weak outlook across advanced economies
The alr...

of 2013 and modest growth in 2014, but these
expectations are highly vulnerable to downside risk.
In terms of the Eurozone...

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The case for fiscal reform
As mentioned in Part 1, governments still face large
budget deficits. During the financial cris...

Chart 2.7 Reform efforts across Europe
(OECD responsiveness index 2011-2012)
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Netherlands
Belgium
Germa...

The upside: a strong recovery
Despite the weak 0.1% quarterly growth in the last
quarter of 2012, the US economy is showin...

Increased net wealth and slightly better
employment conditions are encouraging households
to spend and, as a result, consu...

problems. According to Moody’s, three factors
increase the degree of sovereign risk:
 the medium-term growth outlook cont...

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 push the Bank of Japan towards a loose
monetary policy;
 employ a flexible fiscal policy c...

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3. Prospects and risks in emerging
economies
Strong and stable growth
Economic growth in the ...

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economic growth is important, until now the
measures taken have only aggravated the
imbalance...

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the activity is linked to the real estate sector.
Although the non-performing loans portfolio...

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For that reason, a more welcoming approach to
foreign capital is recommended. India’s total p...

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remains manageable but the country is still reliant
on foreign capital and has little buffers...

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emerging markets, GDP growth there has become
equally relevant to the Latin American countrie...

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and the state-run oil company Pemex. Such a
reform is needed to stop the falling domestic oil...

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Table 3.4 Real GDP growth - MENA
2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f
Egypt 5.1 1.8 2.2 2.7 4.2
Morocco...

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Eurozone, the poorer the economic results will be.
Moreover, the prospect for those economies...

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Russia: no reforms but reasonable growth
In our November 2012 Outlook we highlighted the
impa...

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Inflation rose during the second half of 2012 due to
a poor harvest, increases in utility pri...

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4. Implications for the insolvency
environment
Insolvencies at a high level in 2012
Globally,...

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Box 4.1 Insolvency assessment methodology
Our insolvency forecast framework delivers
expectat...

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2013: a year of stabilising conditions
Applying our insolvency assessment framework (as
outli...

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economic contraction in 2012: insolvencies
increased 21%, reaching an all-time high (see Char...

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Almost half the countries included in our
insolvency framework are currently classified
as ’h...

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In addition to developments already mentioned,
new regulatory requirements are affecting
Euro...

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continuing to dominate positive ones in both
Western Europe and North America. But the
situat...

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Appendix: Forecast tables
Table A1: Macroeconomic headline figures - Developed markets
GDP gr...

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Table A2: Macroeconomic indicators - Developed markets
Private cons.
(%)
Fixed inv.
(%)
Gov. ...

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Table A3: Macroeconomic headline figures - Emerging markets
GDP growth
(%)
Inflation
(%)
Curr...

Copyright Atradius N.V. 2013
Atradius Disclaimer
This report is provided for information purposes only and is not intended...

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