From protection to production: the impact of cash transfer programs...

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From Protection to Production:
the impact of cash transfer
programs on economic activities

The rise of cash transfers
in sub-Saharan Africa

• Around half sub-Saharan African countries have some
kin...

Range of designs

• Universal programmes (Old age pensions, child grants)
• Targeted programmes (Focus on ultra poor and o...

Impact evaluations in
sub-Saharan Africa
• Malawi SCT • Ethiopia
– Mchinji pil...

Regional effort on CT impact evaluation
coordinated by the Transfer Project
UNICEF, SCUK, UNC and FAO, in coordinatio...

Transfer project identified cross country
thematic studies
1. Nutrition and food security
2. Health: use ...

Cash transfers targeted to poorest of the poor
can have productive impacts
• Beneficiaries in sub-Saharan Africa:...

Example: agriculture is fundamental part of
livelihoods of Kenya CT-OVC beneficiaries
• Large majority are agricul...

From Protection to Production Project
• Focus on understanding economic impacts of cash
transfer programs
– working w...

1. Analysis of household decision making
• Via impact evaluation design, programme impact
on household decisions r...

Household level impact
Kenya CT-OVC and Malawi SCT
i. Increased ownership of small livestock
ii. Greater share of hous...

2. Simulation of local economy impacts
• Construct village CGE models for cash transfer
program areas
— Capture ...

How do local economy effects work?
• Immediate impact of transfer will raise purchasing power of
beneficiary households....

Results from Lesotho

Multiplier Level Change
Total Income
...

Effect on Household Incomes

Share of total
Beneficiary (24%) ...

Effects on Value of Production

Production multiplier for: Beneficiary Non beneficiary
...

Alternative market structure scenarios

Final scenario Alternative 1 Alternative 2
...

Magnitude of local economy
effects depends on
• Size of transfer
• Share of households receiving transfer
• How ...

3. Community dynamics

• Qualitative field work in each country at
community level
• Focus on economic activities,...

Results from Ghana
(LEAP - targeted to poor households)
i. Food, education and health top priority, then
inves...

Including the productive dimension in
cash transfer programmes
• Success of cash transfer programmes does not
...

Including the productive dimension in
cash transfer programmes
• Contribute to programme design
– Implica...

Including the productive dimension in
cash transfer programmes
• Contribute to policy debate
– Understand...

Extensions

• Child labor
– Understanding Child Work (UNICEF, ILO and World Bank)
– Kenya, Malawi, Lesotho a...

Entry points for the future
• Transfer Project unfunded
– Indirectly supported by FAO, EU, UNC and others
...

PtoP country timelines

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