Better Estimation and Planning

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@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Better Estimation
and Planning

@gil_zilberfeld
Hello!
I AM GIL ZILBERFELD
www.gilzilberfeld.com
www.everydayunittesting.com
@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld
“Prediction is very
difficult, especially
about the future.” Niels Bohr,
Nobel Prize in Physics

@gil_zilberfeld
“It always takes longer than
you expect,
even when you take into
account
Hofstadter's Law”
Douglas Hofstad...

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Why estimate?

@gil_zilberfeld
The estimation game
For each of the next 10 quantitative questions,
give a lower and an upper bound,
such ...

@gil_zilberfeld
The estimation game
This means that you should expect to guess
correctly for about 9 questions out of 10.
...

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Q: How many people are in this room?
A: You ‘guess’ an interval: 12-67

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Ready?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
1. What was the date of birth of Bram Stoker,
author of Dracula?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
2. What is the population of the Republic of Brazil?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
3. What is the height, in meters, of the tallest
living redwood tree?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
4. How many standardized (ISO 6346) steel
shipping containers exist in the world?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
5. How many Boeing 747 (all models) have been
built at this date?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
6. What is the total number of human deaths
attributed to H5N1 “avian” flu?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
7. How many Syrian conflict refugees were
registered by UNHCR as of 1 Nov 2012?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
8. What was the total wine production of France in
2009, in hectoliters?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
9. How many Olympics medals altogether have
been won to date by Austrian athletes?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
10. What is the half-life, in years, of the isotope
Plutonium 239?

@gil_zilberfeld
1) 1847
2) 199 million
3) 115 meters
4) 20 million containers
5) 1486 747s
You can also split your content...

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
So what happened?

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Would you call a 15 min planning session a win?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
How do estimates help the product?

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Estimates are waste!
Maybe a necessary waste

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Are they working for you?

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Story points

@gil_zilberfeld
Story points are
thinly obfuscated
time,
no more and no
less.
Ron Jeffries

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Why obfuscate time?

@gil_zilberfeld
I am not sure I
invented story
points,
but if I did, I’m
sorry now.
Ron Jeffries

@gil_zilberfeld
Story points
◉ Everybody knows the “code”
◉ The business is talking in dates
◉ Ubiquitous language and ope...

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Planning Poker

@gil_zilberfeld
https://www.amazon.com/Agile-Stationery-Estimation-Poker-players/dp/B01MDTJDST

@gil_zilberfeld
Planning Poker
◉ All the team and just the team
◉ Fibonacci numbers
◉ Full story estimation
◉ Promote disc...

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld
Not so helpful questions
◉ Is it a 3 or a 5?
◉ Should we take the top or the average?
◉ Should we go anoth...

@gil_zilberfeld
Planning Poker
◉ Process that requires practice
◉ Make it quick or find another way
◉ Discuss the “why” be...

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Consensus is not that important

@gil_zilberfeld
https://estimation.lunarlogic.io/

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Let’s do some estimation

@gil_zilberfeld
The cheese marketplace
◉ Buy and sell cheese in our marketplace
◉ Buyers can buy different types of cheese...

@gil_zilberfeld
The cheese exchange
◉ Each line item comes with cheese type, amount,
price per kilo, and exchange rate aga...

@gil_zilberfeld
The cheese exchange
◉ Allow adding, modifying and deleting exchange
rates
◉ Process multi-currency bills a...

@gil_zilberfeld
Group Exercise (10 mins)
◉ Build a test plan
◉ Pick the 10 important items (we’re going to cover
them firs...

@gil_zilberfeld
Group exercise
◉ Do some planning poker
◉ Write down the variances and why

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
What is a good estimate?

@gil_zilberfeld
The primary purpose of an
estimate is not to predict a
project’s outcome.
Steve McConnell, Software Estima...

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
How confident are you with your estimates?

@gil_zilberfeld
Liz Keogh’s Complexity Scale
1. We all know how to do it
2. Someone on our team has done this before
3. So...

@gil_zilberfeld
Group exercise
◉ Rate the different items
◉ How confident are you now?

@gil_zilberfeld
Experience based estimation
◉ Our estimates are based on our experience
◉ “I’ve this before” -> It will pr...

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld
Comparative estimations
◉ We’re optimistic and want to please
◉ We don’t remember what it took last time
◉...

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld
Group exercise
◉ Create history
◉ Roll the dice for each test case 5 times
◉ For each complexity level :
1...

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
What is velocity?
And how do you calculate it?

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld
But they are not the same size!
◉ Make them the same size!
◉ If all stories / tasks are the same it’s easy...

@gil_zilberfeld
Projection over estimation
◉ Projection is what we think our progress would
be, based on the recorded past...

@gil_zilberfeld
Monte-Carlo simulation
◉ Based on small sample size, create projections in
different confidence levels
◉ T...

@gil_zilberfeld
Demo: Monte Carlo Simulation
◉ Troy Magennis tools
◉ You need relevant data
◉ You need people who understa...

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
So what is this #NoEstimates nonsense?

@gil_zilberfeld
Estimates are
not the only
tools

@gil_zilberfeld
Trains!

@gil_zilberfeld
Value
estimation

@gil_zilberfeld
Write them
down!

@gil_zilberfeld
Summary
◉ Estimates are not going away
◉ History is the greatest projector
◉ Use with other tools to make ...

@gil_zilberfeld

@gil_zilberfeld
Thanks!
ANY QUESTIONS?
You can find me at:
@gil_zilberfeld
http://www.GilZilberfeld.com
http://www.Everyda...

@gil_zilberfeld

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