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India:	
  Compe--veness,	
  Opportuni-es	
  and	
  Strategies	
  for	
  Success	
  
                                                                                                       Dr.	
  Amit	
  Kapoor	
  
                                                                                                                       	
  




Ins$tute	
   for	
   Compe$$veness	
   (IFC),	
   India	
   is	
   an	
   independent,	
   interna-onal	
   ini-a-ve	
   centred	
   in	
   India,	
   dedicated	
   to	
   enlarging	
   and	
   dissemina-ng	
   the	
   body	
   of	
  
research	
   and	
   knowledge	
   on	
   compe--on	
   and	
   strategy,	
   pioneered	
   over	
   the	
   last	
   25	
   years	
   by	
   Professor	
   M.E.	
   Porter	
   of	
   the	
   Ins-tute	
   for	
   Strategy	
   and	
  
Compe--veness,	
  Harvard	
  Business	
  School	
  (ISC,	
  HBS),	
  USA.	
   	
  IFC,	
  India	
  works	
  in	
  affilia-on	
  with	
  ISC,	
  HBS,	
  USA	
  to	
  offer	
  academic	
  &	
  execu-ve	
  courses,	
  conduct	
  
indigenous	
  research	
  and	
  provide	
  advisory	
  services	
  to	
  corporate	
  and	
  Government	
  within	
  the	
  country.	
  The	
  ins-tute	
  studies	
  compe--on	
  and	
  its	
  implica-ons	
  for	
  
company	
   strategy;	
   the	
   compe--veness	
   of	
   na-ons,	
   regions	
   &	
   ci-es;	
   suggests	
   and	
   provides	
   solu-ons	
   for	
   social	
   problems.	
   	
   IFC,	
   India	
   brings	
   out	
   India	
   City	
  
Compe--veness	
  Report,	
  India	
  State	
  Compe--veness	
  Report,	
  India	
  Economic	
  Quarterly,	
  Journal	
  of	
  Compe--veness	
  and	
  funds	
  academic	
  research	
  in	
  the	
  area	
  
of	
  strategy	
  &	
  compe--veness.	
  To	
  know	
  more	
  about	
  the	
  ins-tute	
  write	
  to	
  us	
  at	
  info@compe--veness.in.	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1	
  
Agenda	
  


                                Strategizing	
  
                                  for	
  India	
  



             Overview	
  
             of	
  Indian	
  
              Culture	
  

                                           Macroeconomic	
  
                                           Trends	
  in	
  India	
  
Natural Endowments Population and GDP’s of the world




                                                                   3%	
  of	
  the	
  Land	
  area,	
  
                                                               7%	
  of	
  the	
  Popula-on,	
  	
  26%	
  
    7%	
  of	
  the	
  Land	
  area,	
                                       of	
  the	
  GDP	
  
5%	
  of	
  the	
  Popula-on,	
  	
  23%	
                                                                                                           7%	
  of	
  the	
  Land	
  area,	
  
              of	
  the	
  GDP	
                                                                                                                   20%	
  of	
  the	
  Popula-on,	
  	
  9%	
  
                                                                               European Union                                                                    of	
  the	
  GDP	
  

                         USA
                                                                                                                                                                         China

                                                                                                      2%	
  of	
  the	
  Land	
  area,	
  
                                                                                                                                                    India
                                                                                                    17%	
  of	
  the	
  Popula-on,	
  	
  3%	
  
                                                                                                                  of	
  the	
  GDP	
  
GDP over the years




100%


90%
                                                                                                              39%	
  in	
  
                                                                                                               2010	
  
80%


70%


60%
                                                                                                              23%	
  in	
  
                                                                                                               2010	
  
50%


40%                                                                                                            9%	
  in	
  
                                                                                                               2010	
  

30%
                                                                                                               3%	
  in	
  
20%                                                                                                            2010	
  


10%                                                                                                            26%	
  in	
  
                                                                                                                2010	
  
 0%
   1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

            European Union           India      China        United States   Rest of the World

        Source: WDI and Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
Macro	
  Economic	
  Trends	
  in	
  India	
  –	
  The	
  Big	
  Idea	
  




          Factor	
  
        Condi-ons	
  

                                                           The	
                 The	
  rural	
  
                                        Base	
  of	
                              and	
  the	
  
                                                          Indian	
  
                                          the	
                                    urban	
  
                         Demand	
                         Middle	
  
                        Condi-ons	
     Pyramid	
                                  India	
  
                                                           Class	
  



       The	
  Big	
  Idea	
             Opportuni-es	
  in	
  India	
     India	
  versus	
  Bharat	
  
Structural shift in Indian Economy (1994-2000)




                                                                                                                                                                                        Services
                                                                       10


                                                                        8


                                                                        6
% Change in the Contribution to GDP (1994-2000)




                                                                                                           Community and Personal Services




                                                                        4                            Finance, Business & Real Estate Services


                                                                                  Transport, Storage & Communication
                                                                                          Construction
                                                                        2
                                                                                                                                                               Industry

                                                                        0                                                Manufacturing
                                                  -10                       0                             10                                    20                            30   40         50   60

                                                                       -2

                                                                                                                                                     Agriculture and Allied

                                                                       -4


                                                                       -6


                                                                       -8


                                                                      -10
                                                                                                                               Percentage Contribution in GDP (2000)

                                                   Ins-tute	
  for	
  compe--veness	
  Analysis	
  
Structural shift in Indian Economy (2000-2010)




                                                       15                                                                                                            Services
% change in contribution 2000-2010)




                                                       10
                                                                                                                                           Industry
                                                                                Transport, Storage & Communication
                                                                                                Finance, Business & Real Estate Services
                                                                                       Construction


                                                         5
                                                                                                        Manufacturing


                                                      Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
                                                                                      Community and Personal Services

                                                         0
                                      -10                    0                            10                             20                30              40   50        60    70


                                                                                                           Agriculture and Allied

                                                        -5




                                                      -10




                                                      -15

                                                                                                                        Percenatge Contribution in GDP (2010)
                                       Ins-tute	
  for	
  compe--veness	
  Analysis	
  
Income	
  Levels	
  
Income	
  Distribu-on	
  

                                   Rich	
  




           Des-tute	
                               Consumers	
  




                   Aspirants	
                Climbers	
  
Doing business in india   singapore
India will see further reduction in poverty and growth of its middle
 class

McKinsey Global                       Share of population in each income      Household income brackets
Institute: The “ Bird of              bracket %millions of people             thousand, Indian rupees, 2000
Gold”: The Rise of
India’s Consumer
Market, May 2007.p.12




              755          928             1,107        1,278       1,429
100%                  1                                      1               Global{>100}
             00
                  6
                            0   2 0        0
                                               4 1      1
                                                                       2
                                                                       9     Strivers (500-1,000)
                                18                          19                                       Middle
                                                                                                     class
                                               41                      32    Seekers (200-500)

                                                            43
                                                                             Aspirers (90-200)
                                                                       36

                                                                             Deprived (<90)


              1985          1995            2005E       2015F        2025F
Unequal	
  Distribu-on	
  of	
  Income	
  in	
  Urban	
  India.	
  


	
  	
  




                                                                           Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
Increase	
  in	
  the	
  Indian	
  Middle	
  Class	
  Households.	
  
                                               	
  

	
  	
  




                                                                            Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
India	
  Climbs	
  the	
  Millionaire	
  Rankings	
  
                                                                            	
  
                                                                        •  India	
   had	
   153,000	
   millionaires	
   at	
   the	
   end	
   of	
   2010,	
  
     	
  	
                                                                pudng	
  it	
  in	
  12th	
  posi-on	
  in	
  a	
  list	
  of	
  countries	
  with	
  
                                                                           the	
   most	
   millionaires,	
   according	
   to	
   a	
   report	
  
                                                                           released	
  this	
  week	
  by	
  Capgemini	
  and	
  Merrill	
  Lynch	
  
                                                                           Wealth	
   Management.	
   In	
   the	
   year	
   earlier,	
   India	
  
                                                                           ranked	
  14th.	
  	
  

                                                                        •  India’s	
  high	
  net-­‐worth	
  popula-on	
  (defined	
  as	
  those	
  
                                                                           having	
   investable	
   assets	
   of	
   $1	
   million	
   or	
   more,	
  
                                                                           excluding	
  primary	
  home,	
  collec-bles	
  and	
  consumer	
  
                                                                           durables)	
  expanded	
  nearly	
  21%	
  in	
  2010	
  from	
  a	
  year	
  
                                                                           earlier,	
   thanks	
   partly	
   to	
   the	
   country’s	
   booming	
  
                                                                           economy	
  and	
  robust	
  stock	
  markets.	
  

                                                                        •  Asia	
   with	
   3.3	
   million	
   high	
   net	
   worth	
   indivisuals-­‐	
  
                                                                           overtook	
  Europe’s	
  3.1	
  million.	
  

                                                                        •  Asia’s	
   rich	
   are	
   much	
   younger	
   than	
   those	
   in	
   the	
  
                                                                           West.	
  Around	
  41%	
  of	
  high	
  net-­‐worth	
  individuals	
  in	
  
                                                                           Asia	
  (excluding	
  Japan)	
  are	
  45	
  years	
  old	
  or	
  younger,	
  
Source:	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  2011.	
  
                                                                           whereas	
   in	
   North	
   America,	
   68%	
   are	
   over	
   55	
   years	
  
                                                                           old.	
  
The	
  Ageing	
  Popula-on	
  
Demographic	
  Dividend	
     Demographic	
  Burden	
  
Understanding	
  the	
  Demographic	
  Opportunity	
  




                                                       Stage	
  3	
  
                                                       Popula-on	
  
                             Stage	
  2	
              Ageing	
  
                             Demographic	
             The	
  Second	
  
Stage	
  1	
                 Window	
  of	
            Opportunity	
  
	
                           Opportunity	
  
India’s	
  Popula-on	
  Hits	
  1.21	
  billion.	
  
                                                         	
  
       Census	
  2011:	
  
	
  	
  
       	
  
       •  India	
   the	
   world’s	
   second	
   most	
   populous	
   na-on	
  
            added	
  181	
  million	
  people	
  in	
  the	
  last	
  decade	
  to	
  reach	
  
            a	
  total	
  of	
  1.21	
  billion.	
  
       •  The	
   na-on’s	
   popula-on	
   growth	
   rate	
   slowed	
   to	
  
            17.64%	
   in	
   the	
   past	
   10	
   years	
   from	
   21.54%	
   in	
   the	
  
            decade	
  to	
  2001.	
  
       •  Male	
   popula-on	
   grew	
   	
   at	
   a	
   rate	
   of	
   17.19%	
   and	
  
            Female	
  popula-on	
  grew	
  at	
  18.12	
  %.	
  
       •  Literacy	
   increased	
   for	
   the	
   country	
   as	
   a	
   whole	
  
            climbing	
  to	
  74%	
  from	
  about	
  65%.	
  
       •  Sex	
   Ra-o	
   among	
   children	
   upto	
   6	
   years	
   dropped	
   to	
  
            914	
  girls	
  for	
  each	
  1000	
  boys	
  from	
  927	
  a	
  decade	
  ago	
  
            showing	
   that	
   female	
   foe-cide	
   con-nues	
   to	
   be	
   a	
  
            regular	
   prac-ce	
   because	
   of	
   a	
   tradi-onal	
   preference	
  
            for	
  boys.	
  
       •  Popula-on	
  density	
  increased	
  to	
  989	
  people	
  a	
  square	
  
            mile.	
   The	
   area	
   around	
   the	
   Na-onal	
   Capital	
   is	
   the	
  
            densest	
  with	
  around	
  29000	
  people	
  a	
  square	
  mile.	
  
                                                                                                     Source:	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  2011	
  
Economic	
  Implica-on	
  of	
  the	
  Demographics	
  in	
  India.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

Economic	
  Implica$ons:	
  

•    The	
  “replacement”	
  fer-lity	
  rate	
  that	
  was	
  set	
  as	
  a	
  target	
  during	
  last	
  census	
  at	
  2.1	
  children	
  per	
  
     woman,	
  if	
  achieved	
  now	
  would	
  mean	
  that	
  India	
  would	
  stop	
  growing	
  before	
  the	
  middle	
  of	
  this	
  
     century.	
  Infact,	
  the	
  country	
  will	
  knock	
  China	
  from	
  the	
  spot	
  of	
  world’s	
  most	
  populous	
  na-on	
  
     far	
  sooner	
  than	
  2030.	
  
•    In,	
   India	
   the	
   demographic	
   trends	
   indicate	
   a	
   very	
   progressive	
   future.	
   Analyzing	
   the	
  
     dependency	
   ra-o	
   it	
   is	
   believed	
   that	
   in	
   addi-onal	
   15	
   years	
   from	
   now	
   every	
   10	
   people	
   of	
  
     working	
   age	
   in	
   India,	
   will	
   be	
   responsible	
   for	
   fewer	
   than	
   four	
   youngsters	
   and	
   one	
   elderly	
  
     person.	
  These	
  figures	
  are	
  lesser	
  than	
  the	
  present	
  sta-s-cs.	
  
•    The	
   lowering	
   of	
   dependency	
   ra-o	
   implies	
   that	
   this	
   bulge	
   of	
   future	
   workers	
   will	
   be	
   free	
   to	
  
     save	
   more.	
   And	
   those	
   savings	
   can	
   then	
   create	
   the	
   capital	
   to	
   invest	
   in	
   infrastructure,	
   in	
  
     research	
  and	
  in	
  technology.	
  
•    The	
  impact	
  of	
  lower	
  dependency	
  ra-o	
  on	
  the	
  economic	
  boom	
  is	
  evident	
  from	
  the	
  example	
  of	
  
     three	
  states	
  Gujarat,	
  Karnataka	
  and	
  Tamil	
  Nadu.	
  
•    The	
   improvements	
   in	
   the	
   literacy	
   rate	
   point	
   to	
   higher	
   GDP	
   and	
   lower	
   inequality.	
   On	
   an	
  
     average,	
   GDP	
   rises	
   by	
   2.5	
   –	
   3	
   percentage	
   points	
   with	
   an	
   increase	
   of	
   one	
   year	
   of	
   average	
  
     educa-on.	
  


                                                                                                        Source:	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  Financial	
  Express,	
  2011.	
  
Educa-on:	
  Undereducated,	
  Employability	
  etc	
  
Traffic	
  Jams	
  and	
  Healthcare	
  
Doing business in india   singapore
0	
  
                             5000	
  
                                        10000	
  
                                                    15000	
  
                                                                20000	
  
                                                                            25000	
  
                                                                                        30000	
  
                                                                                                    35000	
  
         Andhra	
  
   Arunachal	
  
          Assam	
  
           Bihar	
  
  Chadsgarh	
  
             Goa	
  
        Gujarat	
  	
  
    Haryana	
  	
  
    Himachal	
  
   Jharkhand	
  
   Karnataka	
  	
  
         Kerala	
  	
  
       Madhya	
  
 Maharashtra	
  
    Manipur	
  	
  
  Meghalaya	
  
    Mizoram	
  
    Nagaland	
  
          Orissa	
  
         Punjab	
  
   Rajasthan	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                           State-­‐wise.	
  




          Sikkim	
  
  Tamil	
  Nadu	
  
         Tripura	
  
Upar	
  Pradesh	
  
                                                                                                                Popula$on	
  Served	
  Per	
  Govt.	
  Hospital	
  Bed	
  




  Uparanchal	
  
 West	
  Bengal	
  
  A&N	
  Island	
  
  Chandigarh	
  
  D&N	
  Haveli	
  
Daman	
  &	
  Diu	
  
           Delhi	
  
Lakshadweep	
  
 Pondicherry	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                                                             Popula-on	
  Served	
  per	
  Government	
  Hospital	
  Bed	
  in	
  India:	
  




                                                                Govt.	
  
                                                                served	
  per	
  
                                                                Popula-on	
  


                                                                Hospital	
  Bed	
  
Doing business in india   singapore
Urbaniza-on	
  in	
  India	
  
Ci-es	
  are	
  India’s	
  Future.	
  
                                                           	
           Source:	
  Financial	
  Express,	
  Business	
  Standard,	
  2011	
  


           •    The	
  urban	
  popula-on	
  in	
  India	
  is	
  expected	
  to	
  be	
  close	
  to	
  600	
  million	
  by	
  2031.	
  
           •    According	
   to	
   the	
   report	
   on	
   India’s	
   Urban	
   Awakening	
   by	
   McKinsey	
   Global	
   Ins-tute,	
   India	
  
                will	
  have	
  68	
  ci-es	
  with	
  a	
  popula-on	
  of	
  more	
  than	
  1	
  million	
  in	
  next	
  20	
  years.	
  
	
  	
     •    It	
  is	
  es-mated	
  that	
  91	
  million	
  urban	
  households	
  will	
  be	
  middle-­‐class	
  by	
  2030,	
  up	
  from	
  
                22	
  million	
  today.	
  
           •    Present	
  dismal	
  state	
  of	
  public	
  services	
  and	
  inadequate	
  infrastructure	
  investment	
  pose	
  a	
  
                challenge	
  to	
  growth	
  in	
  the	
  ci-es.	
  

           Rec$fica$ons	
  Needed:	
  
           	
  
           •  Improving	
  the	
  state	
  of	
  infrastructure	
  at	
  present	
  and	
  the	
  service	
  delivery.	
  
           •  Addressing	
   capital	
   investment	
   of	
   roughly	
   5	
   trillion	
   rupees	
   to	
   meet	
   the	
   projected	
  
                infrastructure	
  demands	
  of	
  future	
  
           •  The	
   planned	
   investment	
   in	
   urban	
   infrastructure	
   will	
   increase	
   from	
   0.7%	
   of	
   GDP	
   in	
  
                2011-­‐12	
  to	
  1.1%	
  of	
  GDP	
  in	
  2031-­‐32.	
  
           •  Improvement	
  in	
  Urban	
  Governance.	
  
           •  A	
   Na$onal	
   Manufacturing	
   policy	
   has	
   been	
   under	
   discussion	
   by	
   the	
   government	
   with	
  
                the	
  industrial	
  establishments	
  that	
  envisages	
  crea$on	
  of	
  a	
  slew	
  of	
  industrial	
  townships	
  
                each	
  of	
  12,500	
  acres.	
  

           •    Well	
  conceived	
  ci$es	
  will:	
  
                 	
  
                 a)	
  Improve	
  Quality	
  of	
  life.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
                                                                                         	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  b)	
  Apract	
  Investment.	
  
                 c)	
  Grow	
  Tax	
  Base. 	
                                   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  d)	
  Unlock	
  new	
  growth	
  markets.	
  
                 e)	
  Create	
  a	
  stronger	
  and	
  larger	
  middle-­‐class.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  f)	
  Boost	
  India’s	
  GDP.	
  
                 g)	
  Generate	
  a	
  huge	
  increase	
  in	
  average	
  na-onal	
  income.	
  
India’s	
  Urbaniza-on	
  Trends	
  
                           	
  

	
  	
  




                                                  Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
India’s	
  Urbaniza-on	
  Trends	
  in	
  Past	
  
                               	
  

	
  	
  




                                                                Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
India’s	
  Urbaniza-on	
  Trends	
  in	
  Future	
  
                               	
  

	
  	
  




                                                                  Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
Urban	
  India’s	
  Contribu-on	
  to	
  Na-onal	
  Income	
  in	
  Future	
  
                                              	
  

	
  	
  




                                                                                Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
Gainer	
  States	
  
                	
  

	
  	
  




                                  Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
Strategic	
  Benefits	
  to	
  Sectors	
  
                           	
  

	
  	
  




                                                       Source:	
  McKinsey	
  Report.	
  
Aspiring	
  India	
  	
  
                            Advent	
  of	
  Urbaniza-ons	
  -­‐	
  Some	
  Fast	
  Facts	
  

          DP
      es G                              590 million people                                   ore people
5 tim 2030                            living in cities, nearly                 270 million m
                                                                                               ing-age
    by
                                       twice the population                      to enter work
                                                                                       population
                                          of the US today
              new
       erc ent ill be
   70 p ment w ities                                                                USD 1.2 tr
                                                                                               il
      loy       c                        91 millio                                investmen lion capital
  emp rated in                         househ n urban                                       t is neces
       e                                                                                                sary
   gen                                middle
                                                olds wil
                                                         l be                        to meet p
                                                                                                rojected
                                             class, u                             demand in
                                        22 millio     p from                                 India’s cit
                                                  n today                                               ies

    68 cities will have
  population of 1 million
     plus, up from 42
                                                               uare                                  square
  today; Europe has 35                             million sq ial                           billion ds will
           today                         700-900 commerc                                2.5
                                          meters o
                                                    f                                            of roa
                                                           l space                      meters            d, 20
                                               residentia – or a                                 b e pave
                                           and
                                                      e built                           have to es the
                                          n eeds to b icago                                   tim
                                                                                                        d in the
                                                new Ch                                          ty adde e
                                                             ar                          capaci decad
                                                  every ye                                    past
Urbaniza$on	
  
A Closer Look at India


         Town Class              Population       Number of Towns


           Class   I         1,00,000 and above         423

          Class    II          50,000 – 99,999          498

          Class    III         20,000 – 49,999         1,386

          Class    IV          10,000 – 19,999         1,560

          Class    V            5,000 – 9,999          1,057

          Class    IV          Less than 5,000          110

      Total no. of towns                               5,034



  1mn + : 27               0.5mn – 1.0mn :42      0.1mn -0.5mn: 354



  Source: MART
A Closer Look at Rural India


          Population                  No. of Villages            % of Total Villages


        Less than 200                     92,541                        15.6

           200- 500                      1,27,054                       21.4

          501- 1,000                     1,44,817                       24.4

         1,001 -2,000                    1,29,662                       21.9

         2,001 – 5,000                    80,313                        13.5

        More than 5,000                   18,758                        03.2


     Total no of Villages*               5,93,145                       100.0


  *The Total number of villages includes uninhabited ones adds up to 6,38,365


  Source : MART
The	
  States	
  in	
  India	
  
Country Equivalents




Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, National Statistics
Doing business in india   singapore
State	
  Compe--veness	
  Report	
  2011	
  




                                               © Institute for Competitiveness, India
The	
  State	
  Compe--veness	
  Report	
  


  •    The	
   report	
   incorporates	
   hard	
   data	
   rather	
  
       than	
   soq	
   data	
   such	
   as	
   execu-ve	
   opinion	
  
       surveys,	
   etc.,	
   which	
   might	
   introduce	
  
       sampling	
  errors	
  and	
  bias.	
  	
  


  •    The	
   hard	
   data	
   allows	
   a	
   more	
   correct	
  
       assessment	
   of	
   compe--veness	
   ranking	
  
       with	
   mapping	
   of	
   incremental	
   or	
   quantum	
  
       changes	
  in	
  values	
  of	
  input	
  indicators.	
  	
  


  •    From	
   an	
   execu-on	
   and	
   policy	
   formula-on	
  
       perspec-ve,	
   this	
   approach	
   provides	
   clarity	
  
       to	
   the	
   choice	
   of	
   rela-vely	
   important	
  
       indicators;	
   a	
   virtual	
   Pole	
   Star	
   for	
   those	
  
       keen	
  to	
  enhance	
  compe--veness.	
  
Prosperity in India



                                                            140000
                                                                            High but declining versus India                                                                                  High and rising versus India
                                                                                                                                                                                           Highly Productive and Prosperity
                                                                                                                           Goa
                                                                                                                                                                                           Rising versus India
                                                            120000




                                                                                                              Points	
  
                                                                                                              57.28	
  
                                                                                                              Index	
  
                                                                                                              Avera
                                                                                                              India	
  
                                                                                                                 All India GSDP /Capita
Gross	
  Domes$c	
  Product	
  per	
  Capita,	
  2010	
  




                                                            100000                                                                                                 Delhi



                                                                                                              All	
  
                                                                                                                 rate (CAGR) of 8.36 %




                                                                                                              ge	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Haryana



                                                            80000                                            Maharashtra


                                                                         All	
  India	
  Average	
                                                                                                                                       Punjab

                                                                         of	
  46,836	
  Rupees/                                      Gujarat                                      Himachal Pradesh

                                                            60000        capita	
                                                               Kerala
                                                                                                                         Karnataka                                                                                          Tamil Nadu
                                                                                                        Andhra Pradesh

                                                                                                             Sikkim                                                                                                                  Chhattisgarh
                                                                                                                                 Uttarakhand
                                                                                                                        West Bengal
                                                                                                                                Orissa Meghalaya                                                       Arunachal Pradesh
                                                                                                                                         Mizoram                                       Tripura
                                                            40000                                                     Rajasthan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Assam
                                                                                                                   Nagaland      Jammu & Kashmir             Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh
                                                                                                       Manipur Madhya Pradesh


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Bihar
                                                            20000
                                                                           Low and declining versus India                                                                                        Low but rising versus India

                                                                0
                                                                     0               2                   4                            6                  8             10                         12                       14                       16
                                                                                                                      Gross Domestic Product per Capita CAGR rate, 2008-2010
State Private Sector Wage Performance in India



                                                160000


                                                                                         Jharkhand                      Wage Growth                                              Highly and rising wages relative to
                                                140000                                                                  rate in India                                            India
                                                                                                                        4.53%
                                                              High but declining versus India
                                                120000
Average	
  Wages	
  in	
  Rupees	
  ,2008	
  




                                                                             Uttaranchal

                                                                                                                                         Orissa
                                                100000                                           Maharashtra
                                                                                                                        Goa                                          Average	
  Wages	
  in	
  
                                                                                                                                                                     India	
  :	
  Rupees	
  
                                                                                                                                                                     64,741	
  
                                                80000    Chattisgarh               West Bengal                       HaryanaKarnataka
                                                                                                         Madhya Pradesh
                                                                                                              Gujarat                                                                               Meghalaya
                                                                                                 Delhi                         Himachal Pradesh
                                                                                                               Uttar Pradesh
                                                60000                                                                                             Andhra Pradesh
                                                                                                               Punjub      Tamil Nadu
                                                                                         Kerala Rajasthan
                                                                       Jammu & Kashmir
                                                                                              Bihar                Assam

                                                40000
                                                                                                                                                                   Manipur

                                                                  Tripura                      Nagaland
                                                20000             Low and declining versus India                                                                                       Low but rising versus India



                                                     0
                                                         0                     2                           4              6                 8                                        10                  12            14
                                                                                                                    Wage Growth (CAGR), 2001 to 2008
                                                 Source: State Profiling 2010, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
THE ECONOMIC TIMES ON SATURDAY MUMBAI 27 NOVEMBER 2010 *        CH POLICY                                                                                                    9                              e
                                                                                                  12 UK DL HR                              GJ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   DEBT BURDE




                                population to grow
                                                                                                                                                                BR                                                                 INDIA
                                                                                                  10 NL SK CG KR OR
                                                States can harness their                             8 GOTR
                                                                                                     6 MZ
                                                                                                            AR HP
                                                                                                                        MG
                                                                                                                         JH
                                                                                                                              PJ
                                                                                                                                         KA RJ
                                                                                                                                                 TN
                                                                                                                                                            AP

                                                                                                                                                              WB
                                                                                                                                                                   MH

                                                                                                                                                                                                      UP                          Gross debt to GDPu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (




                                                  population to grow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Gross debt
                                                                                                     4 JK AS                                        MP                                                                                                  l
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (US dollars in billions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Gross debt per
                                                                                                               MN                                                                                                                 capita (US dollars) f
                                                                                                     2 AN                                                                                                                         Gross debt per
                                                                                                            PD                                                                                                                    working-age           m
POLICIES THAT MAKE MAKE PRODUCTIVE USE OF AVAILABLE RESOURCES ARE CRITICAL 2500AR2
                                                               PRODUCTIVE USE OF AVAILABLE RESOURCES 0                                                                                                                            person (US dollars)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor,

                           POLICIES THAT                                                                0                       500                      1000                    1500                     2000                                                            ILO Economically-Active Pop


                                                                                                                                                     Population size in lakhs                                                                           u
 PEOPLE POWER PEOPLE POWER
                              States contributing to India’s GDP growth                            Comparison of state population growth and GDP growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        b
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        O
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                S
 States contributing to India’s GDP growth national average)
                              (GDP growth higher than

 (GDP growth higher than national average)        GDP
                                                                  Population
                                                                 growth rate
                                            (India avg 7.99) (India avg 1.55)
                                                                                                  14
                                                                                                                                                   UK HR                              DL                                    CH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        d                     ind
                             State
                             Chandigarh
                                         Population
                                                  13.12             5.05
                                                                                                  12                                                 GJ BR                                                                           THE EXPLOS
                     GDP Delhi growth rate        11.86             3.11
                                                                                                  10                            AP                SK CG                                                                     NL SERIOUS LO               B
 State                       Uttarakhand            11.8
               (India avg 7.99) (India avg 1.55) 1.59                                                                KR               OR            HP
                             Haryana              11.69             1.98        Population
                                                                                                                             TR KR AR MH GO                                                                                                             u
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        P

 Chandigarh          13.12 Gujarat
                             Bihar           5.05
                                                   10.8
                                                  10.83
                                                                    1.64
                                                                    1.86
                                                                                growth rates
                                                                                are HIGHER           8                                     MG             RJ            MZ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        li
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        g
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        w
                                                                                than national                        TN           WB                 JH                                                                                                 G
 Delhi               11.86   Chhattisgarh 3.11
                             Sikkim
                                                   9.78
                                                     9.6
                                                                    1.76
                                                                    1.58
                                                                                average              6                                              PJ
                                                                                                                                                           UP              AN                                                                           s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        d
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        fo
 Uttarakhand           11.8 Nagaland         1.59  9.54             4.89
                                                                                                                                           AS JK               MN                   PD                                                                  m
 Haryana             11.69 Himachal Pradesh 8.88
                                             1.98                Population
                                                                    1.59                             4                                                   MP                                                                                             t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        n
                      10.8 Andhra Pradesh1.64      9.52          growth rates                                                                                                                                                                           h
 Gujarat                     Orissa                9.37
                                                                    0.99
                                                                    1.07        Population
                                                                 are HIGHER rates
                                                                                growth
                                                                                                     2                                                                                                                       gate net government de
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             trillion — 44% of world
 Bihar               10.83 Meghalaya 1.86          8.05             1.39                                                                                                                                                     — in 2015. Advanced ec
                             Tripura                 8.4
                                                                                are LOWER
                                                                 than nationalnational
                                                                    0.99                             0                                                                                                                           Prasad estimates the r
 Chhattisgarh
 Sikkim
                      9.78 Arunachal Pradesh 8.79
                        9.6 Kerala
                                              1.76
                                             1.58  9.55
                                                                    1.27
                                                                 average average
                                                                    0.77
                                                                                than
                                                                                                        0                           1                        2                     3                      4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             vanced economies will r
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ther to 85% in 2015. In
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             better. The correspondi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        RARINDAM



 Nagaland             9.54 14
                              Population size vs GDP growth rate
                                             4.89                                                                                                    Population growth (%)
                                                                                              er chunk of working-age people, who can among several others, that is dragging force, which are also correspondingly far
                                                                                              contribute to the GDP and generate high- down the economic growth of relatively more productive.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             26% respectively. In 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             gross domestic product
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        I
                                                     CH

 Himachal Pradesh 8.88 12                    1.59    UK
                                                          DL
                                                              HR       GJ
                                                                                              er output per capita.                         affluent states like Maharashtra, Kar- Group 2: States with healthy GDP and
                                                                                                 In fact, the International Labour Orga- nataka and Tamil Nadu. Yet, a few states population growth rates, such as Chandi-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             debt. By 2015, they are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             account for just 14% of    d
                                                                                              nization (ILO) has stated that India will such as Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Gu- Nadu
                                                                                                     DL: Delhi                          AS: Assam                    TN: Tamil garh, Delhi, HaryanaUttar Pradesh
                                                                                                                                                                                                 UP: and Bihar must fo-
                                                                                  BR
                             10                     NL SK CG KR
                                                                   OR           AP                                                                                                                                           share in world GDP, thei
                               8
                                                     AR HP
                                                     GO
                                                         TR
                                                            MG        KA RJ
                                                                            TN   WB
                                                                                     MH
                                                                                              account for the highest working age pop- jarat with large populations are exhibit- cus on sectors AP: Andhra Pradesh
                                                                                                     CH: Chandigarh                     NL: Nagaland                 BR: Bihar competitive because they arepresence of
                                                                                                                                                                                                 where           inherently  To put that more graphi    o
 Andhra Pradesh       9.52 6                 0.99    MZ      JH
                                                                PJ
                                                                             MP
                                                                                              ulation in the next 10 years, in a report re- ing high GDP growth.
                                                                                              leased recently. In the document prepared Uttarakhand
                                                                                                     KR: Kerala
                                                                                                        UP
                                                                                                                                        UK:
                                                                                                                                                                                                       of the                nal rather than borrowe
                                                                                                                                                                     RJ: Rajasthan resources orArunachal Pradesh This has two majorw
                                                                                                                                                                                   natural       AR: traditional skills and                              c
 Orissa               9.37 2
                               4
                                              1.07
                                                       JK    AS
                                                                 Population                   for the G-20 Summit held earlier this No burden on economic growth
                                                     AN
                                                       MN
                                                                                                                                                                                                 HP: Himachal Pradesh they will be ablethan for
                                                                                                     TR:Seoul, the ILO says that the HR:Sixteen states in India have a GDP growth knowledge. These states of a large work-
                                                                                                           Tripura                           Haryana                 GO: Goa to turn the availability should find ways                          to use m
                                                      PD         growth rates                 month in                                  G-
                                                                                              20 nations will see their working age pop- higher than the national MZ: Mizoram in their favour by offering suitable
                                                                                                     MG: Meghalaya                      GJ: Gujarat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             purposes rather
                                                                                                                                                                                                 JK: Jammu & Kashmir or repayment. Two, the             g
 Meghalaya            8.05 0 0           500 1.39    1000       1500         2000        2500
                                                                                                                                                                       average. Of force
                                                                   Population size in lakhs     are LOWER                           ulation between 15 and 64 years increase
                                                                                                                                         PD: Puducherry                     CG:these, ten higher than thePJ: Punjab education policies and opportunities. Set-
                                                                                                                                                                                 Chattisgarh show a national av- ting the right MP: Madhya Pradesh where succeeding gene
                                                                                                                                                                                             states           population
     Tripura            8.4                                  0.99                                                                   by 212 million in the period 2010-2020.     growth rate                                            priorities is critical to en- lier generations will be
                                                                                  than national
                                               Comparison of state population growth and GDP growth                                      KA: Karnataka                      SK: erage, while six other statesMN: popu- hance competitiveness for this band of In-
                                                                                                                                    Over 64% of this increase will occur in In-  Sikkim                      have a Manipur            AN: Andaman & Nicobar Islands advanced economies. A
     Arunachal Pradesh 8.79                    14            1.27                 average                                           dia alone!                                  lation growth rate lower than the nation- dian states.                               pendency ratio — read:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            s
                                               12
                                                                  UK HR              DL            CH                                    WB: West Bengal                    JH: al average.
                                                                                                                                       This month’s IFCIndia State Development  Jharkhand                    OR: OrissaGroup 3: A number ofMaharashtra
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       MH: states such as Kar-       group — and clearly, the
     Kerala            9.55                             AP 0.77
                                                                   GJ BR
                                               10   KR
                                                                 SK CG
                                                                 OR    HP
                                                             TR KR AR MH GO
                                                                                                  NL                                Barometer takes a sharp look at what pop-
                                                                                                                                    ulation really means to the economic
                                                                                                                                                                                    Population growth, considered a bur-
                                                                                                                                                                                  den to economic growth, seems to have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           nataka, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Tamil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nadu and Mizoram are performing only
                                                                                                                                 er chunk of working-age people,correlation with GDP growth (corre- slightlyothers, thataverage GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        This is graphically bro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      with the rise in GDP. EM    a
    Population size vs GDP growth rate          8                          RJ             MZ                                        growth of India’s states and analyses how little who can           among several below India’s is dragging levels from which a force, 2007 to 201
                                                6
                                                          TN   WB
                                                                   MG
                                                                        JH
                                                                       PJ
                                                                           UP              AN                                                                                 lation = 0.24). Large down the growth rate. growth of relatively 2010 to 2015. In contra
                                                                                                                                 contribute to the GDP and generate high- statessustained GDPeconomicThese states can quicklyacat-
                                                                                                                                    states can use their demographic situation                            such as Bihar,                                              JAYEETA g
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   more product
    14 CH                                       4                   AS JK
                                                                           MP
                                                                              MN
                                                                             PD
                                                                                                                                    to improve their competitiveness, and     for instance, have showed                  apult themselves into Group 2 with fo-   over these two periods a

    12 UK    DL
                HR     GJ
                                                2                                                                                er output per capita.
                                                                                                                                    hence, enhance their prosperity.          growth over the decade along with states effort onMaharashtra, Kar- Average debt2: Stat
                                                                                                                                                                                                       affluent a cused like productivity.                         Group per capita    g
                              BR 0              0                                                                                   In fact, the International Labour Orga- Manipur with slower TamilANadu. for enhancing com-
                                                                                                                                    Rising stars among states
                                                                                                                                                                              steadily rising population, whereas states Group 4: roadmap
                                                                                                                                                                                                       nataka and petitiveness is criticalYet, a few states rose to $29,100 in 201
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $41,000 in 2015. By gr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   population 201
                                                                                                                                 nization accepted that growth among In- population increase lower is atGDP ing states. AmongMadhya population-versus- inH
                                                                                                                                                                                              NDIA as the centre of Pradesh and Gu- $48,000 per person. Th
                                                                                                                                                                                                       such the na- tar Pradesh and the Pradesh with               garh, Delhi, f
                                                1              2            3          4                                     5                                                such as Punjab and                                              for poorly perform-
    10 NL SK CG KR OR       AP                            Population growth (%)                                                     It is widely (ILO) has stated that India will are showing Bihar, Andhra these, states such as Ut-
        AR HP                                                                                                                       dian states is skewed, with some prosper- growth rates that are        than                                                   $75,900, the highest t
     8 GOTR MG        KA RJ     MH Delhi
                                                                                                                                    ous states bearing the burden of working average.growth debate. With the world’s second-largest 2015.r
                                 DL:              AS: Assam       TN: Tamil Nadu UP: Uttar Pradesh
                             WB
                                 CH: Chandigarh   NL: Nagaland    BR: Bihar      AP: Andhra Pradesh                              account for the highestgrowth, tionalage pop- jarat with largeand growing populations must con-                                   cus on sectors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         large populations are exhibit- be just $1,200 in                I
                                 TN             KR: Kerala         UK: Uttarakhand   RJ: Rajasthan   AR: Arunachal Pradesh          while several other lag in terms of GDP                                                trol the rate of population growth            Among advanced eco
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Indian	
  Market	
  is	
  Highly	
  Regional	
  


                                          Cultures	
  &	
  
                                          Languages	
  




                        Seasonality	
  



                                                   Uneven	
  Papern	
  of	
  
                                                   Wealth	
  Distribu-on	
  
Strategizing	
  for	
  Success	
  in	
  India	
  




                                                              Who	
  are	
  
                                                              the	
  
                                           Where	
            successful	
  
                                           should	
  we	
     players	
  
                                           focus	
  
                                                              	
  
              Is	
  it	
  an	
  easy	
  
              market	
  to	
  
              crack	
  
Why	
  is	
  India	
  so	
  Complex?	
  

•  India	
  is	
  good	
  at	
  resource	
  
   maximiza-on	
  
•  Indian	
  businesses	
  have	
  a	
  
   way	
  of	
  making	
  things	
  
   differently	
  and	
  with	
  
   minimal	
  resources	
  maybe	
  
   because	
  India	
  is	
  a	
  poor	
  
   country	
  
Innova$on	
  or	
  Ind’ova$on	
  
	
  
Ind’ova$on	
  commonly	
  know	
  
in	
  Hindi	
  as	
  Jugaad	
  is	
  a	
  striking	
  
feature	
  of	
  the	
  Indian	
  business	
  
landscape.	
  It	
  indicates	
  the	
  
ingenuity	
  to	
  achieve	
  results	
  by	
  
out	
  of	
  box	
  thinking,	
  at	
  -mes	
  
even	
  temporary	
  fixes.	
  
	
  
Doing	
  it	
  for	
  India	
  
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Crea-ng	
  Unique	
  Business	
  Models	
  
Whitening	
  Creams	
  are	
  selling	
  like	
  hot	
  cakes.	
  


	
  	
  




                                                                   Source:	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  2011	
  
Disaggrega-on	
  of	
  Sales	
  
Local	
  Mom	
  and	
  Pop	
  Store	
  
How	
  many	
  bidis	
  are	
  sold	
  in	
  a	
  day	
  in	
  India	
  by	
  502	
  Pataka	
  
Manufacturing	
  Company?	
  




                                                     100,000,000	
  
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Doing business in india   singapore
Indian	
  Culture	
  




        Varies	
  
        within	
  
        States	
  
                                                                                No-ceable	
  lack	
  
                                                               The	
              of	
  privacy	
  &	
  
                      India	
  Is	
      Karma	
             Concept	
          importance	
  of	
  
                                                                                 interpersonal	
  
                     hierarchy	
  
                       driven	
  
                                                             of	
  Time	
            contact	
  




    The	
  Basic	
  Idea	
              How	
  we	
  look	
  at	
  things	
     Collec-vism	
  
Thank	
  You	
  

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Doing business in india singapore

  • 1. India:  Compe--veness,  Opportuni-es  and  Strategies  for  Success   Dr.  Amit  Kapoor     Ins$tute   for   Compe$$veness   (IFC),   India   is   an   independent,   interna-onal   ini-a-ve   centred   in   India,   dedicated   to   enlarging   and   dissemina-ng   the   body   of   research   and   knowledge   on   compe--on   and   strategy,   pioneered   over   the   last   25   years   by   Professor   M.E.   Porter   of   the   Ins-tute   for   Strategy   and   Compe--veness,  Harvard  Business  School  (ISC,  HBS),  USA.    IFC,  India  works  in  affilia-on  with  ISC,  HBS,  USA  to  offer  academic  &  execu-ve  courses,  conduct   indigenous  research  and  provide  advisory  services  to  corporate  and  Government  within  the  country.  The  ins-tute  studies  compe--on  and  its  implica-ons  for   company   strategy;   the   compe--veness   of   na-ons,   regions   &   ci-es;   suggests   and   provides   solu-ons   for   social   problems.     IFC,   India   brings   out   India   City   Compe--veness  Report,  India  State  Compe--veness  Report,  India  Economic  Quarterly,  Journal  of  Compe--veness  and  funds  academic  research  in  the  area   of  strategy  &  compe--veness.  To  know  more  about  the  ins-tute  write  to  us  at  info@compe--veness.in.     1  
  • 2. Agenda   Strategizing   for  India   Overview   of  Indian   Culture   Macroeconomic   Trends  in  India  
  • 3. Natural Endowments Population and GDP’s of the world 3%  of  the  Land  area,   7%  of  the  Popula-on,    26%   7%  of  the  Land  area,   of  the  GDP   5%  of  the  Popula-on,    23%   7%  of  the  Land  area,   of  the  GDP   20%  of  the  Popula-on,    9%   European Union of  the  GDP   USA China 2%  of  the  Land  area,   India 17%  of  the  Popula-on,    3%   of  the  GDP  
  • 4. GDP over the years 100% 90% 39%  in   2010   80% 70% 60% 23%  in   2010   50% 40% 9%  in   2010   30% 3%  in   20% 2010   10% 26%  in   2010   0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 European Union India China United States Rest of the World Source: WDI and Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  • 5. Macro  Economic  Trends  in  India  –  The  Big  Idea   Factor   Condi-ons   The   The  rural   Base  of   and  the   Indian   the   urban   Demand   Middle   Condi-ons   Pyramid   India   Class   The  Big  Idea   Opportuni-es  in  India   India  versus  Bharat  
  • 6. Structural shift in Indian Economy (1994-2000) Services 10 8 6 % Change in the Contribution to GDP (1994-2000) Community and Personal Services 4 Finance, Business & Real Estate Services Transport, Storage & Communication Construction 2 Industry 0 Manufacturing -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 -2 Agriculture and Allied -4 -6 -8 -10 Percentage Contribution in GDP (2000) Ins-tute  for  compe--veness  Analysis  
  • 7. Structural shift in Indian Economy (2000-2010) 15 Services % change in contribution 2000-2010) 10 Industry Transport, Storage & Communication Finance, Business & Real Estate Services Construction 5 Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Community and Personal Services 0 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Agriculture and Allied -5 -10 -15 Percenatge Contribution in GDP (2010) Ins-tute  for  compe--veness  Analysis  
  • 9. Income  Distribu-on   Rich   Des-tute   Consumers   Aspirants   Climbers  
  • 11. India will see further reduction in poverty and growth of its middle class McKinsey Global Share of population in each income Household income brackets Institute: The “ Bird of bracket %millions of people thousand, Indian rupees, 2000 Gold”: The Rise of India’s Consumer Market, May 2007.p.12 755 928 1,107 1,278 1,429 100% 1 1 Global{>100} 00 6 0 2 0 0 4 1 1 2 9 Strivers (500-1,000) 18 19 Middle class 41 32 Seekers (200-500) 43 Aspirers (90-200) 36 Deprived (<90) 1985 1995 2005E 2015F 2025F
  • 12. Unequal  Distribu-on  of  Income  in  Urban  India.       Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 13. Increase  in  the  Indian  Middle  Class  Households.         Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 14. India  Climbs  the  Millionaire  Rankings     •  India   had   153,000   millionaires   at   the   end   of   2010,       pudng  it  in  12th  posi-on  in  a  list  of  countries  with   the   most   millionaires,   according   to   a   report   released  this  week  by  Capgemini  and  Merrill  Lynch   Wealth   Management.   In   the   year   earlier,   India   ranked  14th.     •  India’s  high  net-­‐worth  popula-on  (defined  as  those   having   investable   assets   of   $1   million   or   more,   excluding  primary  home,  collec-bles  and  consumer   durables)  expanded  nearly  21%  in  2010  from  a  year   earlier,   thanks   partly   to   the   country’s   booming   economy  and  robust  stock  markets.   •  Asia   with   3.3   million   high   net   worth   indivisuals-­‐   overtook  Europe’s  3.1  million.   •  Asia’s   rich   are   much   younger   than   those   in   the   West.  Around  41%  of  high  net-­‐worth  individuals  in   Asia  (excluding  Japan)  are  45  years  old  or  younger,   Source:  Wall  Street  Journal,  2011.   whereas   in   North   America,   68%   are   over   55   years   old.  
  • 16. Demographic  Dividend   Demographic  Burden  
  • 17. Understanding  the  Demographic  Opportunity   Stage  3   Popula-on   Stage  2   Ageing   Demographic   The  Second   Stage  1   Window  of   Opportunity     Opportunity  
  • 18. India’s  Popula-on  Hits  1.21  billion.     Census  2011:         •  India   the   world’s   second   most   populous   na-on   added  181  million  people  in  the  last  decade  to  reach   a  total  of  1.21  billion.   •  The   na-on’s   popula-on   growth   rate   slowed   to   17.64%   in   the   past   10   years   from   21.54%   in   the   decade  to  2001.   •  Male   popula-on   grew     at   a   rate   of   17.19%   and   Female  popula-on  grew  at  18.12  %.   •  Literacy   increased   for   the   country   as   a   whole   climbing  to  74%  from  about  65%.   •  Sex   Ra-o   among   children   upto   6   years   dropped   to   914  girls  for  each  1000  boys  from  927  a  decade  ago   showing   that   female   foe-cide   con-nues   to   be   a   regular   prac-ce   because   of   a   tradi-onal   preference   for  boys.   •  Popula-on  density  increased  to  989  people  a  square   mile.   The   area   around   the   Na-onal   Capital   is   the   densest  with  around  29000  people  a  square  mile.   Source:  Wall  Street  Journal,  2011  
  • 19. Economic  Implica-on  of  the  Demographics  in  India.                 Economic  Implica$ons:   •  The  “replacement”  fer-lity  rate  that  was  set  as  a  target  during  last  census  at  2.1  children  per   woman,  if  achieved  now  would  mean  that  India  would  stop  growing  before  the  middle  of  this   century.  Infact,  the  country  will  knock  China  from  the  spot  of  world’s  most  populous  na-on   far  sooner  than  2030.   •  In,   India   the   demographic   trends   indicate   a   very   progressive   future.   Analyzing   the   dependency   ra-o   it   is   believed   that   in   addi-onal   15   years   from   now   every   10   people   of   working   age   in   India,   will   be   responsible   for   fewer   than   four   youngsters   and   one   elderly   person.  These  figures  are  lesser  than  the  present  sta-s-cs.   •  The   lowering   of   dependency   ra-o   implies   that   this   bulge   of   future   workers   will   be   free   to   save   more.   And   those   savings   can   then   create   the   capital   to   invest   in   infrastructure,   in   research  and  in  technology.   •  The  impact  of  lower  dependency  ra-o  on  the  economic  boom  is  evident  from  the  example  of   three  states  Gujarat,  Karnataka  and  Tamil  Nadu.   •  The   improvements   in   the   literacy   rate   point   to   higher   GDP   and   lower   inequality.   On   an   average,   GDP   rises   by   2.5   –   3   percentage   points   with   an   increase   of   one   year   of   average   educa-on.   Source:  Wall  Street  Journal,  Financial  Express,  2011.  
  • 21. Traffic  Jams  and  Healthcare  
  • 23. 0   5000   10000   15000   20000   25000   30000   35000   Andhra   Arunachal   Assam   Bihar   Chadsgarh   Goa   Gujarat     Haryana     Himachal   Jharkhand   Karnataka     Kerala     Madhya   Maharashtra   Manipur     Meghalaya   Mizoram   Nagaland   Orissa   Punjab   Rajasthan     State-­‐wise.   Sikkim   Tamil  Nadu   Tripura   Upar  Pradesh   Popula$on  Served  Per  Govt.  Hospital  Bed   Uparanchal   West  Bengal   A&N  Island   Chandigarh   D&N  Haveli   Daman  &  Diu   Delhi   Lakshadweep   Pondicherry     Popula-on  Served  per  Government  Hospital  Bed  in  India:   Govt.   served  per   Popula-on   Hospital  Bed  
  • 26. Ci-es  are  India’s  Future.     Source:  Financial  Express,  Business  Standard,  2011   •  The  urban  popula-on  in  India  is  expected  to  be  close  to  600  million  by  2031.   •  According   to   the   report   on   India’s   Urban   Awakening   by   McKinsey   Global   Ins-tute,   India   will  have  68  ci-es  with  a  popula-on  of  more  than  1  million  in  next  20  years.       •  It  is  es-mated  that  91  million  urban  households  will  be  middle-­‐class  by  2030,  up  from   22  million  today.   •  Present  dismal  state  of  public  services  and  inadequate  infrastructure  investment  pose  a   challenge  to  growth  in  the  ci-es.   Rec$fica$ons  Needed:     •  Improving  the  state  of  infrastructure  at  present  and  the  service  delivery.   •  Addressing   capital   investment   of   roughly   5   trillion   rupees   to   meet   the   projected   infrastructure  demands  of  future   •  The   planned   investment   in   urban   infrastructure   will   increase   from   0.7%   of   GDP   in   2011-­‐12  to  1.1%  of  GDP  in  2031-­‐32.   •  Improvement  in  Urban  Governance.   •  A   Na$onal   Manufacturing   policy   has   been   under   discussion   by   the   government   with   the  industrial  establishments  that  envisages  crea$on  of  a  slew  of  industrial  townships   each  of  12,500  acres.   •  Well  conceived  ci$es  will:     a)  Improve  Quality  of  life.                                                b)  Apract  Investment.   c)  Grow  Tax  Base.                                                                                  d)  Unlock  new  growth  markets.   e)  Create  a  stronger  and  larger  middle-­‐class.                                  f)  Boost  India’s  GDP.   g)  Generate  a  huge  increase  in  average  na-onal  income.  
  • 27. India’s  Urbaniza-on  Trends         Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 28. India’s  Urbaniza-on  Trends  in  Past         Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 29. India’s  Urbaniza-on  Trends  in  Future         Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 30. Urban  India’s  Contribu-on  to  Na-onal  Income  in  Future         Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 31. Gainer  States         Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 32. Strategic  Benefits  to  Sectors         Source:  McKinsey  Report.  
  • 33. Aspiring  India     Advent  of  Urbaniza-ons  -­‐  Some  Fast  Facts   DP es G 590 million people ore people 5 tim 2030 living in cities, nearly 270 million m ing-age by twice the population to enter work population of the US today new erc ent ill be 70 p ment w ities USD 1.2 tr il loy c 91 millio investmen lion capital emp rated in househ n urban t is neces e sary gen middle olds wil l be to meet p rojected class, u demand in 22 millio p from India’s cit n today ies 68 cities will have population of 1 million plus, up from 42 uare square today; Europe has 35 million sq ial billion ds will today 700-900 commerc 2.5 meters o f of roa l space meters d, 20 residentia – or a b e pave and e built have to es the n eeds to b icago tim d in the new Ch ty adde e ar capaci decad every ye past
  • 35. A Closer Look at India Town Class Population Number of Towns Class I 1,00,000 and above 423 Class II 50,000 – 99,999 498 Class III 20,000 – 49,999 1,386 Class IV 10,000 – 19,999 1,560 Class V 5,000 – 9,999 1,057 Class IV Less than 5,000 110 Total no. of towns 5,034 1mn + : 27 0.5mn – 1.0mn :42 0.1mn -0.5mn: 354 Source: MART
  • 36. A Closer Look at Rural India Population No. of Villages % of Total Villages Less than 200 92,541 15.6 200- 500 1,27,054 21.4 501- 1,000 1,44,817 24.4 1,001 -2,000 1,29,662 21.9 2,001 – 5,000 80,313 13.5 More than 5,000 18,758 03.2 Total no of Villages* 5,93,145 100.0 *The Total number of villages includes uninhabited ones adds up to 6,38,365 Source : MART
  • 37. The  States  in  India  
  • 38. Country Equivalents Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, National Statistics
  • 40. State  Compe--veness  Report  2011   © Institute for Competitiveness, India
  • 41. The  State  Compe--veness  Report   •  The   report   incorporates   hard   data   rather   than   soq   data   such   as   execu-ve   opinion   surveys,   etc.,   which   might   introduce   sampling  errors  and  bias.     •  The   hard   data   allows   a   more   correct   assessment   of   compe--veness   ranking   with   mapping   of   incremental   or   quantum   changes  in  values  of  input  indicators.     •  From   an   execu-on   and   policy   formula-on   perspec-ve,   this   approach   provides   clarity   to   the   choice   of   rela-vely   important   indicators;   a   virtual   Pole   Star   for   those   keen  to  enhance  compe--veness.  
  • 42. Prosperity in India 140000 High but declining versus India High and rising versus India Highly Productive and Prosperity Goa Rising versus India 120000 Points   57.28   Index   Avera India   All India GSDP /Capita Gross  Domes$c  Product  per  Capita,  2010   100000 Delhi All   rate (CAGR) of 8.36 % ge   Haryana 80000 Maharashtra All  India  Average   Punjab of  46,836  Rupees/ Gujarat Himachal Pradesh 60000 capita   Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Sikkim Chhattisgarh Uttarakhand West Bengal Orissa Meghalaya Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram Tripura 40000 Rajasthan Assam Nagaland Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh Manipur Madhya Pradesh Bihar 20000 Low and declining versus India Low but rising versus India 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Gross Domestic Product per Capita CAGR rate, 2008-2010
  • 43. State Private Sector Wage Performance in India 160000 Jharkhand Wage Growth Highly and rising wages relative to 140000 rate in India India 4.53% High but declining versus India 120000 Average  Wages  in  Rupees  ,2008   Uttaranchal Orissa 100000 Maharashtra Goa Average  Wages  in   India  :  Rupees   64,741   80000 Chattisgarh West Bengal HaryanaKarnataka Madhya Pradesh Gujarat Meghalaya Delhi Himachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh 60000 Andhra Pradesh Punjub Tamil Nadu Kerala Rajasthan Jammu & Kashmir Bihar Assam 40000 Manipur Tripura Nagaland 20000 Low and declining versus India Low but rising versus India 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Wage Growth (CAGR), 2001 to 2008 Source: State Profiling 2010, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  • 44. THE ECONOMIC TIMES ON SATURDAY MUMBAI 27 NOVEMBER 2010 * CH POLICY 9 e 12 UK DL HR GJ DEBT BURDE population to grow BR INDIA 10 NL SK CG KR OR States can harness their 8 GOTR 6 MZ AR HP MG JH PJ KA RJ TN AP WB MH UP Gross debt to GDPu n a ( population to grow Gross debt 4 JK AS MP l (US dollars in billions Gross debt per MN capita (US dollars) f 2 AN Gross debt per PD working-age m POLICIES THAT MAKE MAKE PRODUCTIVE USE OF AVAILABLE RESOURCES ARE CRITICAL 2500AR2 PRODUCTIVE USE OF AVAILABLE RESOURCES 0 person (US dollars) Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, POLICIES THAT 0 500 1000 1500 2000 ILO Economically-Active Pop Population size in lakhs u PEOPLE POWER PEOPLE POWER States contributing to India’s GDP growth Comparison of state population growth and GDP growth b O S States contributing to India’s GDP growth national average) (GDP growth higher than (GDP growth higher than national average) GDP Population growth rate (India avg 7.99) (India avg 1.55) 14 UK HR DL CH d ind State Chandigarh Population 13.12 5.05 12 GJ BR THE EXPLOS GDP Delhi growth rate 11.86 3.11 10 AP SK CG NL SERIOUS LO B State Uttarakhand 11.8 (India avg 7.99) (India avg 1.55) 1.59 KR OR HP Haryana 11.69 1.98 Population TR KR AR MH GO u P Chandigarh 13.12 Gujarat Bihar 5.05 10.8 10.83 1.64 1.86 growth rates are HIGHER 8 MG RJ MZ li g w than national TN WB JH G Delhi 11.86 Chhattisgarh 3.11 Sikkim 9.78 9.6 1.76 1.58 average 6 PJ UP AN s d fo Uttarakhand 11.8 Nagaland 1.59 9.54 4.89 AS JK MN PD m Haryana 11.69 Himachal Pradesh 8.88 1.98 Population 1.59 4 MP t n 10.8 Andhra Pradesh1.64 9.52 growth rates h Gujarat Orissa 9.37 0.99 1.07 Population are HIGHER rates growth 2 gate net government de trillion — 44% of world Bihar 10.83 Meghalaya 1.86 8.05 1.39 — in 2015. Advanced ec Tripura 8.4 are LOWER than nationalnational 0.99 0 Prasad estimates the r Chhattisgarh Sikkim 9.78 Arunachal Pradesh 8.79 9.6 Kerala 1.76 1.58 9.55 1.27 average average 0.77 than 0 1 2 3 4 vanced economies will r 5 ther to 85% in 2015. In better. The correspondi RARINDAM Nagaland 9.54 14 Population size vs GDP growth rate 4.89 Population growth (%) er chunk of working-age people, who can among several others, that is dragging force, which are also correspondingly far contribute to the GDP and generate high- down the economic growth of relatively more productive. 26% respectively. In 20 gross domestic product I CH Himachal Pradesh 8.88 12 1.59 UK DL HR GJ er output per capita. affluent states like Maharashtra, Kar- Group 2: States with healthy GDP and In fact, the International Labour Orga- nataka and Tamil Nadu. Yet, a few states population growth rates, such as Chandi- debt. By 2015, they are account for just 14% of d nization (ILO) has stated that India will such as Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Gu- Nadu DL: Delhi AS: Assam TN: Tamil garh, Delhi, HaryanaUttar Pradesh UP: and Bihar must fo- BR 10 NL SK CG KR OR AP share in world GDP, thei 8 AR HP GO TR MG KA RJ TN WB MH account for the highest working age pop- jarat with large populations are exhibit- cus on sectors AP: Andhra Pradesh CH: Chandigarh NL: Nagaland BR: Bihar competitive because they arepresence of where inherently To put that more graphi o Andhra Pradesh 9.52 6 0.99 MZ JH PJ MP ulation in the next 10 years, in a report re- ing high GDP growth. leased recently. In the document prepared Uttarakhand KR: Kerala UP UK: of the nal rather than borrowe RJ: Rajasthan resources orArunachal Pradesh This has two majorw natural AR: traditional skills and c Orissa 9.37 2 4 1.07 JK AS Population for the G-20 Summit held earlier this No burden on economic growth AN MN HP: Himachal Pradesh they will be ablethan for TR:Seoul, the ILO says that the HR:Sixteen states in India have a GDP growth knowledge. These states of a large work- Tripura Haryana GO: Goa to turn the availability should find ways to use m PD growth rates month in G- 20 nations will see their working age pop- higher than the national MZ: Mizoram in their favour by offering suitable MG: Meghalaya GJ: Gujarat purposes rather JK: Jammu & Kashmir or repayment. Two, the g Meghalaya 8.05 0 0 500 1.39 1000 1500 2000 2500 average. Of force Population size in lakhs are LOWER ulation between 15 and 64 years increase PD: Puducherry CG:these, ten higher than thePJ: Punjab education policies and opportunities. Set- Chattisgarh show a national av- ting the right MP: Madhya Pradesh where succeeding gene states population Tripura 8.4 0.99 by 212 million in the period 2010-2020. growth rate priorities is critical to en- lier generations will be than national Comparison of state population growth and GDP growth KA: Karnataka SK: erage, while six other statesMN: popu- hance competitiveness for this band of In- Over 64% of this increase will occur in In- Sikkim have a Manipur AN: Andaman & Nicobar Islands advanced economies. A Arunachal Pradesh 8.79 14 1.27 average dia alone! lation growth rate lower than the nation- dian states. pendency ratio — read: s 12 UK HR DL CH WB: West Bengal JH: al average. This month’s IFCIndia State Development Jharkhand OR: OrissaGroup 3: A number ofMaharashtra MH: states such as Kar- group — and clearly, the Kerala 9.55 AP 0.77 GJ BR 10 KR SK CG OR HP TR KR AR MH GO NL Barometer takes a sharp look at what pop- ulation really means to the economic Population growth, considered a bur- den to economic growth, seems to have nataka, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Mizoram are performing only er chunk of working-age people,correlation with GDP growth (corre- slightlyothers, thataverage GDP This is graphically bro with the rise in GDP. EM a Population size vs GDP growth rate 8 RJ MZ growth of India’s states and analyses how little who can among several below India’s is dragging levels from which a force, 2007 to 201 6 TN WB MG JH PJ UP AN lation = 0.24). Large down the growth rate. growth of relatively 2010 to 2015. In contra contribute to the GDP and generate high- statessustained GDPeconomicThese states can quicklyacat- states can use their demographic situation such as Bihar, JAYEETA g more product 14 CH 4 AS JK MP MN PD to improve their competitiveness, and for instance, have showed apult themselves into Group 2 with fo- over these two periods a 12 UK DL HR GJ 2 er output per capita. hence, enhance their prosperity. growth over the decade along with states effort onMaharashtra, Kar- Average debt2: Stat affluent a cused like productivity. Group per capita g BR 0 0 In fact, the International Labour Orga- Manipur with slower TamilANadu. for enhancing com- Rising stars among states steadily rising population, whereas states Group 4: roadmap nataka and petitiveness is criticalYet, a few states rose to $29,100 in 201 $41,000 in 2015. By gr population 201 nization accepted that growth among In- population increase lower is atGDP ing states. AmongMadhya population-versus- inH NDIA as the centre of Pradesh and Gu- $48,000 per person. Th such the na- tar Pradesh and the Pradesh with garh, Delhi, f 1 2 3 4 5 such as Punjab and for poorly perform- 10 NL SK CG KR OR AP Population growth (%) It is widely (ILO) has stated that India will are showing Bihar, Andhra these, states such as Ut- AR HP dian states is skewed, with some prosper- growth rates that are than $75,900, the highest t 8 GOTR MG KA RJ MH Delhi ous states bearing the burden of working average.growth debate. With the world’s second-largest 2015.r DL: AS: Assam TN: Tamil Nadu UP: Uttar Pradesh WB CH: Chandigarh NL: Nagaland BR: Bihar AP: Andhra Pradesh account for the highestgrowth, tionalage pop- jarat with largeand growing populations must con- cus on sectors large populations are exhibit- be just $1,200 in I TN KR: Kerala UK: Uttarakhand RJ: Rajasthan AR: Arunachal Pradesh while several other lag in terms of GDP trol the rate of population growth Among advanced eco
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