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DR. MARK ELLYNE
CHALLENGES IN AFRICA
JULY 2013
Does Africa Need the
Bretton Woods Institutions?
WHO ARE THE NEW RULERS OF THE
WORLD?
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
1/29/20152
CONSPIRACY OR COOPERATION?
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 3
International Conspiracy to
Impose Western Hegemony
on Africa/Developing World?
or
Western economic support
to Africa/low income countries
to raise their economic development?
SECRET PLAN FOR IMF WORLD DICTATORSHIP
IDENTIFIED BY THE ILLUMINATI (5/11/2005)
4
…a British-steered attempt to impose the
dictatorship of the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) on the entire planet, …
Under this plan, the IMF would dictate the
economic policies of all states. The IMF
orthodoxy is austerity, sacrifice, deregulation,
privatization, union busting, wage reductions,
free trade, a race to the bottom, and
prohibitions on advanced technologies. These
policies would strangle humanity.
Source: http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/Blog/ The Illuminati Conspiracy Archive
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
WHY IS AFRICA SO POOR?
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 5 1/29/2015
WHO ARE THE
BRETTON WOODS INSTITUTIONS?
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 6
World
Trade
Organ.
 Develop
global rules of
trade
 Provide
mechanisms to
resolve trade
disputes
World Bank
Promote
economic
development
World Bank
motto: “Our
dream is a
world free of
poverty”
IMF
Promote
global
financial
stability
Promote
macro-
economic
stability
1/29/2015
PURPOSE OF THE IMF
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 7
• Prevent another great depression
• Promote exchange rate stability and
convertibility
o Facilitate growth and trade
• Lender of last resort for balance of
payments problems
o Policy based lending
1/29/2015
WORLD BANK VS. IMF
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 8
World Bank
• Development projects
• Raises money on
international markets
• Mission is to reduce
poverty
IMF
• Policy-based lending
• Use members’
contributions
• Mission is to maintain
financial and economic
stability
1/29/2015
IMF INTERVENTION MODEL
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 9
1. Economic problem/shock affects
country’s balance of payments, i.e.
ability to pay for imports
2. Government invites IMF assistance
3. IMF proposes loan and demands
conditionality
1/29/2015
WORLD BANK INTERVENTION MODEL
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 10
1. Economic development affects
country’s income and poverty
2. Government asks for loans and
technical assistance for large-scale
investment projects
3. WB finances development projects to
reduce poverty and raise income
1/29/2015
POVERTY IS LINKED TO GROWTH
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 11
Why hasn’t Africa improved as much as Asia?
Poverty Headcount (%)
1993 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010
SSA 59.4 58.0 55.7 52.3 49.2 48.5
South Asia 51.7 45.1 45.1 39.4 36.0 31.0
Latin America 11.4 11.9 11.9 8.7 6.5 5.5
Source: Povacal, World Bank
THE DOWNTURN IN GROWTH BEGINNING IN 1980 LED
AFRICA TO SEEK ADVICE FROM THE IMF.
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 12
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
African GDP per Capita in US$
1960s 1970s 1980s
ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORY
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 13
Y = TFP KαL (1-α)
Growth depends on:
Capital accumulation
Labour force growth,
Education and skills,
Technological progress
1/29/2015
AFRICA’S GROWTH IS LOWER
THAN THEORY PREDICTS
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 14
• Sub-Saharan African countries (48) have
statistically grown slower than other
regions, even after taking account of
standard economic variables.
UNTIL THE MID-1990S, GROWTH IN SSA WAS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
FACTOR ACCUMULATION IN ALL COUNTRY GROUPS.
1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-06
Sub-Saharan Africa
Real GDP growth 3.5 1.7 4.4 4.2
Factor accumulation 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0
TFP growth 0.3 -1.3 1.1 1.2
High-growth countries
Real GDP growth 5.1 2.7 7.3 5.1
Factor accumulation 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.3
TFP growth 1.1 -1.2 2.5 1.8
Low-growth countries
Real GDP growth 3.7 2.8 2.3 1.1
Factor accumulation 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2
TFP growth 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -1.1
HIPC post-completion point countries
Real GDP growth 2.6 0.6 4.3 5.2
Factor accumulation 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.4
TFP growth -0.6 -2.3 1.2 1.8
Fragile countries 1
Real GDP growth 2.3 1.7 1.7 0.8
Factor accumulation 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.6
TFP growth -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and staff calculations.
1
Excluding HIPC post-completion point countries (The Gambia,
Sao Tome and Principe, and Sierra Leone).
Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1985-2006
WHAT MAKES AFRICA DIFFERENT?
Why is TFP growth lower than elsewhere?
• Geography?
• Demographics?
• Culture?
• Resource endowment?
• Politics: Internal & External?
• Institutions
• Governance?
• Policies?
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 16
WHY DOES AFRICA GROW SLOWER?
Geography
(Bloom and Sachs)
• Geography and Climate: African soils,
topography, and disease ecology raise
obstacles to growth, including low
agricultural productivity and high disease
burdens.
“Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in
Africa” (Bloom and Sachs 1998)
Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the
IMF
17
WHY DOES AFRICA GROW SLOWER?
Geology
• Resource Curse
• Heavy dependence on a small number of
primary exports, which have shown long-
term price declines (terms of trade
declines) and high volatility;
Lifting the Oil Curse: Improving Petroleum Revenue
Management in Sub-Saharan Africa (IMF 2004)
18
THE PROBLEM IS “THE RESOURCE CURSE”
• The exploitation of Africa’s prolific natural
resources encourages rent seeking
(payments for nonproductive work), and
ultimately the Dutch Disease (a high value-
added export appreciates the exchange
rate and may make traditional exports
noncompetitive).
Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the
IMF
19
WHY DOES AFRICA GROW SLOWER?
Politics
External politics
• The legacy of the slave trade;
• Colonial rule;
• Cold War manipulations of African
politics; and
• Foreign aid
Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the
IMF
20
THE IMF EXPLANATION
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 21
Poor economic policies
• Excessive protectionism--inefficient;
• Excessive government regulation--slows
business and creates rents;
• Excessive fiscal spending;
• Tendency for governments to print
money, which causes inflation;
• High economic rents (corruption), and
• Lack of domestic capital.
1/29/2015
TO ALLEVIATE CAPITAL SHORTAGE,
DONORS GAVE LOANS DURING THE 1980S
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 22
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ExternalDebt/GDP (%)
Asia
SSA
Forecast
BAD GOVERNMENT POLICIES ARE
OFTEN THE SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 23
THE BWI SOLUTION TO
AFRICA’S DEFICIENT POLICIES
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 24
Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs),
created in the 1980s, promoted the
traditional economic wisdom of the time,
which became embodied in what was
called the Washington Consensus (1999),
which was at the center of adjustment
policies. (“Neoliberal policies”)
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 25
Fiscal Policy
1. Fiscal discipline is good;
2. Public expenditure priorities should be
social infrastructure and public goods;
3. Tax reform should broaden the tax base.
IMPLIED POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS
26
 Reduce the fiscal deficit
• To take pressure off interest rates, stop
crowding out the private sector, and reduce
the current account deficit
 Raise taxes or cut expenditure
Painful
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
27
Price Liberalization
4. Deregulation to encourage market-
determined prices, which create more efficient
allocation. Eliminate price controls and
subsidies;
5. Maintain a single exchange rate determined
by the market.
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
IMPLIED POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS
28
Depreciate the exchange rate to increase
competitiveness
• To raise exports and reduce imports, (reduce
the trade deficit) and stimulate domestic
production
Raises inflation
Painful
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
29
Free Trade
6. Trade liberalization is good for growth
and consumer welfare.
7. Encourage privatization and eliminate
barriers to foreign direct investment to
encourage more & efficient investment.
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
30
8. Liberalize the financial sector to obtain
efficient allocation of capital, including
market interest rates, including free flow
of international capital.
9. Create secure property rights to
encourage investment.
10. Maintain macroeconomic stability.
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
IMPLIED POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS
31
Raise the real interest rate
• To reduce inflation, encourage savings, and
make efficient use of capital.
Hurts business and reduces jobs
Painful
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
RESULTS OF POLICIES IN AFRICA
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 32
Average GDP Growth Rates (in Percent)
1981-90 1991-2000
World 3.3 3.1
Advanced economies 3.2 2.8
Developing Asia 6.7 7.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 2.3
Source: World Bank and WEO
THE COUNTER ATTACK TO THE WC
STIGLITZ (2002)
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 33
ATTACK ON THE
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 34
We don’t live in textbook neoclassical
world - incomplete information and
imperfect markets.
Shock therapy is worse than the
gradualist approach—especially for
transition economies
ATTACK ON THE
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 35
Need to build new institutions, like land
titles, commercial courts, and relevant
laws before implementing new policies.
ATTACK ON THE
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 36
Privatization is not always the answer
o State-owned enterprises may provide
socially beneficial services and
employment.
ATTACK ON THE
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 38
• Trade liberalization need to done slowly
and may not always be good
o Should consumers pay more to facilitate
domestic employment?
o Protection may give an infant industry a
chance to succeed
ATTACK ON THE
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 39
• Financial liberalization:
oCan be dangerous without appropriate
supervision
oFree flow of capital may be dangerous,
especially for small economies
TREVOR MANUEL: MARKET FAILURES
WERE THE PROBLEM (2003)
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 41
• World trade regime not favourable to
Africa. External shocks very damaging to
undiversified exporters.
• International financial system and aid
practices caused frequent disruptions to
developing country markets
• Grants were needed in place of loans
DOMESTIC MARKET FAILURES
42
• State-owned enterprises can be good
(Asia) but the African State was too weak
to manage them
• Shortage of social capital--needed more
human capital and physical infrastructure
• Africa’s rural economy is to dependent on
the more modern urban and fiscal sectors
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
DOES IMF CREATE AUSTERITY?
THE IMF RESPONSE
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 43
• “Saying the IMF causes austerity is like
saying doctors cause plagues because you
often find them around sick people.”
• “Emerging-market debtors typically come
to the IMF only when their finances are
under extreme duress ... and other
creditors have turned their backs.”
The IMF Strikes Back By Kenneth Rogoff , Economic Counselor and
Director of the Research Department International Monetary Fund
WHAT WAS WRONG WITH SAP ADVICE?
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 44
I. Fundamentally flawed?
II. Faulty implementation?
III. Reform program not wrong, but
incomplete?
NEW THINKING
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 45
• Joseph Stiglitz – How to make
Globalization Work
• Jeff Sachs – The End of Poverty
• Dembisa Moyo – Dead Aid
• Paul Collier – The Bottom Billion;
Wars, Guns and Votes
• Governance
SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEM
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 46 1/29/2015
THE END OF POVERTY:
ECONOMIC POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR TIME
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 47
Jeffrey Sachs (2005) argues that extreme
poverty—defined by the World Bank as
incomes of less than 1 dollar per day—can
be eliminated globally by the year 2025,
through carefully planned development
aid, that reaches the "bottom rung" of the
ladder.
SACHS: MORE AID
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 48
In order to achieve the goal of
eliminating global poverty,
development aid must be raised from
$65 billion globally as of 2002 to
between $135 and $195 billion a year
by 2015, including debt cancellation
for the world's poorest countries.
1/29/2015
DEAD AID BY DAMBISA MOYO
(2009)
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 49
MOYO’S HYPOTHESES:
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 50
Foreign aid fosters dependence;
Foreign aid fosters corruption;
Foreign aid encourages bureaucracy;
Foreign aid reduces tax revenue;
Foreign aid reduces private investment;
Foreign aid creates bottlenecks;
1/29/2015
DONOR AID AND CORRUPTION
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 51
Historically:
“Corrupt governments do not receive
less Foreign aid.”
“Countries that receive more aid, tend
to have higher levels of corruption.”
Source: Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less
Foreign Aid? (NBER Working Paper No. 7108)
MOYO: LESS AID - MORE BUSINESS
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 52
• Advanced economies should reduce aid
while increasing trade
• LIC governments should use bond markets
to raise funds—not the central bank or
donor grants
• LICs should welcome foreign investment
• Governments must make “Doing
Business” easier
1/29/2015
PAUL COLLIER
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 53
• The Natural Resource Trap - The
exploitation of Africa’s prolific natural
resources encourages rent seeking
(payments for nonproductive work),
and can stifle other economic activity
(Dutch Disease).
• Africa is heavily dependent on a small
number of primary exports that have
shown long-term price declines
(terms of trade declines) and high
volatility.
PAUL COLLIER
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 54
• Political risk is results
from conflict and is one
of the greatest risk
factors reducing
investment in Africa.
• Ethnic loyalty to leaders,
regardless of their
competence/performanc
e, reduce their incentive
to perform well.
PAUL COLLIER
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 55
• The Conflict Trap - civil
wars and coups have an
estimated average cost
of $64bn each,
according to Collier.
POLITICAL RISK IS HIGH IN AFRICA
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 56
2009: Index of Failed States
• Top 5 failed states were in Africa (Somalia,
Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe, DRC)
• 10 of top 15 in Africa
• 21 of 37 States that US Government has on
its Alert list for Failed States are in Africa
AVERAGE CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX:
AFRICAN COUNTRIES IN YELLOW (2010)
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 57
2010
Country
Rank
Country / Territory
101 Dominican Republic
101 Sao Tome and Principe
101 Tonga
101 Zambia
105 Algeria
105 Argentina
105 Kazakhstan
105 Moldova
105 Senegal
110 Benin
110 Bolivia
110 Gabon
110 Indonesia
110 Kosovo
110 Solomon Islands
116 Ethiopia
116 Guyana
116 Mali
116 Mongolia
116 Mozambique
116 Tanzania
116 Vietnam
123 Armenia
123 Eritrea
123 Madagascar
123 Niger
127 Belarus
127 Ecuador
127 Lebanon
127 Nicaragua
127 Syria
127 Timor-Leste
127 Uganda
134 Azerbaijan
134 Bangladesh
134 Honduras
134 Nigeria
134 Philippines
134 Sierra Leone
134 Togo
134 Ukraine
134 Zimbabwe
143 Maldives
143 Mauritania
143 Pakistan
146 Cameroon
146 Côte d´Ivoire
146 Haiti
146 Iran
146 Libya
146 Nepal
146 Paraguay
146 Yemen
2010
Country
Rank
Country / Territory
154 Cambodia
154 Central African Republic
154 Comoros
154 Congo
154 Guinea-Bissau
154 Kenya
154 Laos
154 Papua New Guinea
154 Russia
154 Tajikistan
164 Congo, Dem Rep
164 Guinea
164 Kyrgyzstan
164 Venezuela
168 Angola
168 Equatorial Guinea
170 Burundi
171 Chad
172 Sudan
172 Turkmenistan
172 Uzbekistan
175 Iraq
176 Afghanistan
176 Myanmar
178 Somalia
2010
Country
Rank
Country / Territory
1 Denmark
1 New Zealand
1 Singapore
4 Finland
4 Sweden
6 Canada
7 Netherlands
8 Australia
8 Switzerland
10 Norway
11 Iceland
11 Luxembourg
13 Hong Kong
14 Ireland
15 Austria
15 Germany
17 Barbados
17 Japan
19 Qatar
20 United Kingdom
21 Chile
22 Belgium
22 United States
24 Uruguay
25 France
26 Estonia
27 Slovenia
28 Cyprus
28 United Arab Emirates
30 Israel
30 Spain
32 Portugal
33 Botswana
33 Puerto Rico
33 Taiwan
36 Bhutan
37 Malta
38 Brunei
39 Korea (South)
39 Mauritius
41 Costa Rica
41 Oman
41 Poland
44 Dominica
45 Cape Verde
46 Lithuania
46 Macau
48 Bahrain
49 Seychelles
50 Hungary
50 Jordan
50 Saudi Arabia
2010
Country
Rank
Country / Territory
53 Czech Republic
54 Kuwait
54 South Africa
56 Malaysia
56 Namibia
56 Turkey
59 Latvia
59 Slovakia
59 Tunisia
62 Croatia
62 Macedonia, FYR
62 Ghana
62 Samoa
66 Rwanda
67 Italy
68 Georgia
69 Brazil
69 Cuba
69 Montenegro
69 Romania
73 Bulgaria
73 El Salvador
73 Panama
73 Trinidad and Tobago
73 Vanuatu
78 China
78 Colombia
78 Greece
78 Lesotho
78 Peru
78 Serbia
78 Thailand
85 Malawi
85 Morocco
87 Albania
87 India
87 Jamaica
87 Liberia
91 Bosnia and Herzegovina
91 Djibouti
91 Gambia
91 Guatemala
91 Kiribati
91 Sri Lanka
91 Swaziland
98 Burkina Faso
98 Egypt
98 Mexico
HAS THE IMF CHANGED SINCE SAPS?
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 58
The 2nd Generation of Reforms:
• Concern about poverty; creation of the
Poverty Reduction and
Growth Facility (1999)
• Emphasis on good governance
(accountability and transparency in public
finances)
• Demands government ownership of policies
HAS THE IMF CHANGED SINCE SAP?
59
• Increased concern over financial
system regulation and supervision
• Provides more capacity building and
technical assistance
• Offered debt relief for first time
(MDRI, 2006)
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
SOME OLD MESSAGES PERSIST
60
• Growth is the key to poverty reduction
• International trade and foreign investment
(new technology) are critical for long-term
growth
• Governments must avoid excessive
domestic and foreign debt
• African countries need more flexible
exchange rates, and more flexible goods
and labour markets
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
THE ALTERNATIVES TO THE BWIS
• Hold more reserves to protect against
shocks
• Need more commercial borrowing
(expensive)
• Take more bilateral aid (more political
strings attached)
Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the
IMF
61
AFRICA IS EXPERIENCING A RESURGENCE
OF GROWTH SINCE 2000
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 62
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
African GDP per Capita in US$
AFRICA’S NEW GROWTH SURGE?
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 63
Average GDP growth rates (in Percent)
1980-1990 1991-2000 2001-2012
World 3.2 3.2 3.6
Advanced Economies 3.1 2.8 1.6
Developing Asia 6.6 7.3 8.4
Latin America 2.0 3.1 3.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6 2.3 5.6
SINCE THE MID-1990S, TFP GROWTH HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED
1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-06
Sub-Saharan Africa
Real GDP growth 3.5 1.7 4.4 4.2
Factor accumulation 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0
TFP growth 0.3 -1.3 1.1 1.2
High-growth countries
Real GDP growth 5.1 2.7 7.3 5.1
Factor accumulation 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.3
TFP growth 1.1 -1.2 2.5 1.8
Low-growth countries
Real GDP growth 3.7 2.8 2.3 1.1
Factor accumulation 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2
TFP growth 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -1.1
HIPC post-completion point countries
Real GDP growth 2.6 0.6 4.3 5.2
Factor accumulation 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.4
TFP growth -0.6 -2.3 1.2 1.8
Fragile countries 1
Real GDP growth 2.3 1.7 1.7 0.8
Factor accumulation 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.6
TFP growth -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and staff calculations.
1
Excluding HIPC post-completion point countries (The Gambia,
Sao Tome and Principe, and Sierra Leone).
Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1985-2006
Summary of key messages
• Until the mid-1990s, growth in SSA was driven
primarily by factor accumulation in all country groups.
• Since the mid-1990s, TFP growth has improved strongly
in all country groups, except for fragile countries.
• TFP accelerations associated with improvements in
terms of trade, higher aid, and lower economic and
social instability
• CFA zone countries have a propensity for TFP
decelerations
Dan Ghura (2007). Growth Accounting in Africa, IMF
Conclusions and Policy Implications
66
IS AFRICAN RESURGING?
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 67
Just a fluke:
• Just a commodity boom
• Due to China and India
• No real industrialization
This time is different:
• More democracy and ownership
• More institutional development
• More consumerism
• More beneficiation
BWI/IMF BALANCE SHEET
68
PROs
Facilitatesinternational
cooperation
Provides public
informationon all
economies
Technicalassistanceand
policy advice
Provides lender of last
resort financing
Voicefor Africa(LICs)
CONs
Economic
policeman/auditor
Requirespolicy
conditionality(evenif
countyis not be ready)
Favourscreditorsover
debtors
Favoursefficiency(private)
over equity (government)
Overly conservative
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
IMF IS DISLIKED BY ALL SIDES
Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 69
From the right: Nationalists are dislike
supranational institutions;
From the left: Socialists dislike polices that
hurt poor elements of society;
IMF is run by rich countries;
IMF follows bad “neoliberal” policies.
1/29/2015
DISCUSSION
72
Is the IMF (BWIs) a conspiracy to
undermine the economies of low
income countries?
Are Africa’s problems a result of
discrimination, bad advice, or poor
policy implementation?
Should the IMF (BWIs) be replaced?
And with what?
1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne

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Does africa need the bw is challenges v4

  • 1. DR. MARK ELLYNE CHALLENGES IN AFRICA JULY 2013 Does Africa Need the Bretton Woods Institutions?
  • 2. WHO ARE THE NEW RULERS OF THE WORLD? Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 1/29/20152
  • 3. CONSPIRACY OR COOPERATION? 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 3 International Conspiracy to Impose Western Hegemony on Africa/Developing World? or Western economic support to Africa/low income countries to raise their economic development?
  • 4. SECRET PLAN FOR IMF WORLD DICTATORSHIP IDENTIFIED BY THE ILLUMINATI (5/11/2005) 4 …a British-steered attempt to impose the dictatorship of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the entire planet, … Under this plan, the IMF would dictate the economic policies of all states. The IMF orthodoxy is austerity, sacrifice, deregulation, privatization, union busting, wage reductions, free trade, a race to the bottom, and prohibitions on advanced technologies. These policies would strangle humanity. Source: http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/Blog/ The Illuminati Conspiracy Archive 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 5. WHY IS AFRICA SO POOR? Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 5 1/29/2015
  • 6. WHO ARE THE BRETTON WOODS INSTITUTIONS? Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 6 World Trade Organ.  Develop global rules of trade  Provide mechanisms to resolve trade disputes World Bank Promote economic development World Bank motto: “Our dream is a world free of poverty” IMF Promote global financial stability Promote macro- economic stability 1/29/2015
  • 7. PURPOSE OF THE IMF Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 7 • Prevent another great depression • Promote exchange rate stability and convertibility o Facilitate growth and trade • Lender of last resort for balance of payments problems o Policy based lending 1/29/2015
  • 8. WORLD BANK VS. IMF Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 8 World Bank • Development projects • Raises money on international markets • Mission is to reduce poverty IMF • Policy-based lending • Use members’ contributions • Mission is to maintain financial and economic stability 1/29/2015
  • 9. IMF INTERVENTION MODEL Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 9 1. Economic problem/shock affects country’s balance of payments, i.e. ability to pay for imports 2. Government invites IMF assistance 3. IMF proposes loan and demands conditionality 1/29/2015
  • 10. WORLD BANK INTERVENTION MODEL Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 10 1. Economic development affects country’s income and poverty 2. Government asks for loans and technical assistance for large-scale investment projects 3. WB finances development projects to reduce poverty and raise income 1/29/2015
  • 11. POVERTY IS LINKED TO GROWTH 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 11 Why hasn’t Africa improved as much as Asia? Poverty Headcount (%) 1993 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 SSA 59.4 58.0 55.7 52.3 49.2 48.5 South Asia 51.7 45.1 45.1 39.4 36.0 31.0 Latin America 11.4 11.9 11.9 8.7 6.5 5.5 Source: Povacal, World Bank
  • 12. THE DOWNTURN IN GROWTH BEGINNING IN 1980 LED AFRICA TO SEEK ADVICE FROM THE IMF. 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 12 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 African GDP per Capita in US$ 1960s 1970s 1980s
  • 13. ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORY Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 13 Y = TFP KαL (1-α) Growth depends on: Capital accumulation Labour force growth, Education and skills, Technological progress 1/29/2015
  • 14. AFRICA’S GROWTH IS LOWER THAN THEORY PREDICTS 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 14 • Sub-Saharan African countries (48) have statistically grown slower than other regions, even after taking account of standard economic variables.
  • 15. UNTIL THE MID-1990S, GROWTH IN SSA WAS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FACTOR ACCUMULATION IN ALL COUNTRY GROUPS. 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-06 Sub-Saharan Africa Real GDP growth 3.5 1.7 4.4 4.2 Factor accumulation 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0 TFP growth 0.3 -1.3 1.1 1.2 High-growth countries Real GDP growth 5.1 2.7 7.3 5.1 Factor accumulation 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.3 TFP growth 1.1 -1.2 2.5 1.8 Low-growth countries Real GDP growth 3.7 2.8 2.3 1.1 Factor accumulation 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2 TFP growth 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -1.1 HIPC post-completion point countries Real GDP growth 2.6 0.6 4.3 5.2 Factor accumulation 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.4 TFP growth -0.6 -2.3 1.2 1.8 Fragile countries 1 Real GDP growth 2.3 1.7 1.7 0.8 Factor accumulation 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.6 TFP growth -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and staff calculations. 1 Excluding HIPC post-completion point countries (The Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe, and Sierra Leone). Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1985-2006
  • 16. WHAT MAKES AFRICA DIFFERENT? Why is TFP growth lower than elsewhere? • Geography? • Demographics? • Culture? • Resource endowment? • Politics: Internal & External? • Institutions • Governance? • Policies? 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 16
  • 17. WHY DOES AFRICA GROW SLOWER? Geography (Bloom and Sachs) • Geography and Climate: African soils, topography, and disease ecology raise obstacles to growth, including low agricultural productivity and high disease burdens. “Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa” (Bloom and Sachs 1998) Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the IMF 17
  • 18. WHY DOES AFRICA GROW SLOWER? Geology • Resource Curse • Heavy dependence on a small number of primary exports, which have shown long- term price declines (terms of trade declines) and high volatility; Lifting the Oil Curse: Improving Petroleum Revenue Management in Sub-Saharan Africa (IMF 2004) 18
  • 19. THE PROBLEM IS “THE RESOURCE CURSE” • The exploitation of Africa’s prolific natural resources encourages rent seeking (payments for nonproductive work), and ultimately the Dutch Disease (a high value- added export appreciates the exchange rate and may make traditional exports noncompetitive). Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the IMF 19
  • 20. WHY DOES AFRICA GROW SLOWER? Politics External politics • The legacy of the slave trade; • Colonial rule; • Cold War manipulations of African politics; and • Foreign aid Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the IMF 20
  • 21. THE IMF EXPLANATION Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 21 Poor economic policies • Excessive protectionism--inefficient; • Excessive government regulation--slows business and creates rents; • Excessive fiscal spending; • Tendency for governments to print money, which causes inflation; • High economic rents (corruption), and • Lack of domestic capital. 1/29/2015
  • 22. TO ALLEVIATE CAPITAL SHORTAGE, DONORS GAVE LOANS DURING THE 1980S 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 22 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ExternalDebt/GDP (%) Asia SSA Forecast
  • 23. BAD GOVERNMENT POLICIES ARE OFTEN THE SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 23
  • 24. THE BWI SOLUTION TO AFRICA’S DEFICIENT POLICIES 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 24 Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs), created in the 1980s, promoted the traditional economic wisdom of the time, which became embodied in what was called the Washington Consensus (1999), which was at the center of adjustment policies. (“Neoliberal policies”)
  • 25. WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 25 Fiscal Policy 1. Fiscal discipline is good; 2. Public expenditure priorities should be social infrastructure and public goods; 3. Tax reform should broaden the tax base.
  • 26. IMPLIED POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS 26  Reduce the fiscal deficit • To take pressure off interest rates, stop crowding out the private sector, and reduce the current account deficit  Raise taxes or cut expenditure Painful 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 27. WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 27 Price Liberalization 4. Deregulation to encourage market- determined prices, which create more efficient allocation. Eliminate price controls and subsidies; 5. Maintain a single exchange rate determined by the market. 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 28. IMPLIED POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS 28 Depreciate the exchange rate to increase competitiveness • To raise exports and reduce imports, (reduce the trade deficit) and stimulate domestic production Raises inflation Painful 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 29. WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 29 Free Trade 6. Trade liberalization is good for growth and consumer welfare. 7. Encourage privatization and eliminate barriers to foreign direct investment to encourage more & efficient investment. 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 30. WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 30 8. Liberalize the financial sector to obtain efficient allocation of capital, including market interest rates, including free flow of international capital. 9. Create secure property rights to encourage investment. 10. Maintain macroeconomic stability. 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 31. IMPLIED POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS 31 Raise the real interest rate • To reduce inflation, encourage savings, and make efficient use of capital. Hurts business and reduces jobs Painful 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 32. RESULTS OF POLICIES IN AFRICA 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 32 Average GDP Growth Rates (in Percent) 1981-90 1991-2000 World 3.3 3.1 Advanced economies 3.2 2.8 Developing Asia 6.7 7.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 2.3 Source: World Bank and WEO
  • 33. THE COUNTER ATTACK TO THE WC STIGLITZ (2002) 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 33
  • 34. ATTACK ON THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 34 We don’t live in textbook neoclassical world - incomplete information and imperfect markets. Shock therapy is worse than the gradualist approach—especially for transition economies
  • 35. ATTACK ON THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 35 Need to build new institutions, like land titles, commercial courts, and relevant laws before implementing new policies.
  • 36. ATTACK ON THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 36 Privatization is not always the answer o State-owned enterprises may provide socially beneficial services and employment.
  • 37. ATTACK ON THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 38 • Trade liberalization need to done slowly and may not always be good o Should consumers pay more to facilitate domestic employment? o Protection may give an infant industry a chance to succeed
  • 38. ATTACK ON THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 39 • Financial liberalization: oCan be dangerous without appropriate supervision oFree flow of capital may be dangerous, especially for small economies
  • 39. TREVOR MANUEL: MARKET FAILURES WERE THE PROBLEM (2003) 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 41 • World trade regime not favourable to Africa. External shocks very damaging to undiversified exporters. • International financial system and aid practices caused frequent disruptions to developing country markets • Grants were needed in place of loans
  • 40. DOMESTIC MARKET FAILURES 42 • State-owned enterprises can be good (Asia) but the African State was too weak to manage them • Shortage of social capital--needed more human capital and physical infrastructure • Africa’s rural economy is to dependent on the more modern urban and fiscal sectors 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 41. DOES IMF CREATE AUSTERITY? THE IMF RESPONSE 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 43 • “Saying the IMF causes austerity is like saying doctors cause plagues because you often find them around sick people.” • “Emerging-market debtors typically come to the IMF only when their finances are under extreme duress ... and other creditors have turned their backs.” The IMF Strikes Back By Kenneth Rogoff , Economic Counselor and Director of the Research Department International Monetary Fund
  • 42. WHAT WAS WRONG WITH SAP ADVICE? 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 44 I. Fundamentally flawed? II. Faulty implementation? III. Reform program not wrong, but incomplete?
  • 43. NEW THINKING 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 45 • Joseph Stiglitz – How to make Globalization Work • Jeff Sachs – The End of Poverty • Dembisa Moyo – Dead Aid • Paul Collier – The Bottom Billion; Wars, Guns and Votes • Governance
  • 44. SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEM Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 46 1/29/2015
  • 45. THE END OF POVERTY: ECONOMIC POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR TIME 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 47 Jeffrey Sachs (2005) argues that extreme poverty—defined by the World Bank as incomes of less than 1 dollar per day—can be eliminated globally by the year 2025, through carefully planned development aid, that reaches the "bottom rung" of the ladder.
  • 46. SACHS: MORE AID Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 48 In order to achieve the goal of eliminating global poverty, development aid must be raised from $65 billion globally as of 2002 to between $135 and $195 billion a year by 2015, including debt cancellation for the world's poorest countries. 1/29/2015
  • 47. DEAD AID BY DAMBISA MOYO (2009) 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 49
  • 48. MOYO’S HYPOTHESES: Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 50 Foreign aid fosters dependence; Foreign aid fosters corruption; Foreign aid encourages bureaucracy; Foreign aid reduces tax revenue; Foreign aid reduces private investment; Foreign aid creates bottlenecks; 1/29/2015
  • 49. DONOR AID AND CORRUPTION 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 51 Historically: “Corrupt governments do not receive less Foreign aid.” “Countries that receive more aid, tend to have higher levels of corruption.” Source: Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid? (NBER Working Paper No. 7108)
  • 50. MOYO: LESS AID - MORE BUSINESS Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 52 • Advanced economies should reduce aid while increasing trade • LIC governments should use bond markets to raise funds—not the central bank or donor grants • LICs should welcome foreign investment • Governments must make “Doing Business” easier 1/29/2015
  • 51. PAUL COLLIER 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 53 • The Natural Resource Trap - The exploitation of Africa’s prolific natural resources encourages rent seeking (payments for nonproductive work), and can stifle other economic activity (Dutch Disease). • Africa is heavily dependent on a small number of primary exports that have shown long-term price declines (terms of trade declines) and high volatility.
  • 52. PAUL COLLIER 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 54 • Political risk is results from conflict and is one of the greatest risk factors reducing investment in Africa. • Ethnic loyalty to leaders, regardless of their competence/performanc e, reduce their incentive to perform well.
  • 53. PAUL COLLIER 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 55 • The Conflict Trap - civil wars and coups have an estimated average cost of $64bn each, according to Collier.
  • 54. POLITICAL RISK IS HIGH IN AFRICA 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 56 2009: Index of Failed States • Top 5 failed states were in Africa (Somalia, Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe, DRC) • 10 of top 15 in Africa • 21 of 37 States that US Government has on its Alert list for Failed States are in Africa
  • 55. AVERAGE CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX: AFRICAN COUNTRIES IN YELLOW (2010) 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 57 2010 Country Rank Country / Territory 101 Dominican Republic 101 Sao Tome and Principe 101 Tonga 101 Zambia 105 Algeria 105 Argentina 105 Kazakhstan 105 Moldova 105 Senegal 110 Benin 110 Bolivia 110 Gabon 110 Indonesia 110 Kosovo 110 Solomon Islands 116 Ethiopia 116 Guyana 116 Mali 116 Mongolia 116 Mozambique 116 Tanzania 116 Vietnam 123 Armenia 123 Eritrea 123 Madagascar 123 Niger 127 Belarus 127 Ecuador 127 Lebanon 127 Nicaragua 127 Syria 127 Timor-Leste 127 Uganda 134 Azerbaijan 134 Bangladesh 134 Honduras 134 Nigeria 134 Philippines 134 Sierra Leone 134 Togo 134 Ukraine 134 Zimbabwe 143 Maldives 143 Mauritania 143 Pakistan 146 Cameroon 146 Côte d´Ivoire 146 Haiti 146 Iran 146 Libya 146 Nepal 146 Paraguay 146 Yemen 2010 Country Rank Country / Territory 154 Cambodia 154 Central African Republic 154 Comoros 154 Congo 154 Guinea-Bissau 154 Kenya 154 Laos 154 Papua New Guinea 154 Russia 154 Tajikistan 164 Congo, Dem Rep 164 Guinea 164 Kyrgyzstan 164 Venezuela 168 Angola 168 Equatorial Guinea 170 Burundi 171 Chad 172 Sudan 172 Turkmenistan 172 Uzbekistan 175 Iraq 176 Afghanistan 176 Myanmar 178 Somalia 2010 Country Rank Country / Territory 1 Denmark 1 New Zealand 1 Singapore 4 Finland 4 Sweden 6 Canada 7 Netherlands 8 Australia 8 Switzerland 10 Norway 11 Iceland 11 Luxembourg 13 Hong Kong 14 Ireland 15 Austria 15 Germany 17 Barbados 17 Japan 19 Qatar 20 United Kingdom 21 Chile 22 Belgium 22 United States 24 Uruguay 25 France 26 Estonia 27 Slovenia 28 Cyprus 28 United Arab Emirates 30 Israel 30 Spain 32 Portugal 33 Botswana 33 Puerto Rico 33 Taiwan 36 Bhutan 37 Malta 38 Brunei 39 Korea (South) 39 Mauritius 41 Costa Rica 41 Oman 41 Poland 44 Dominica 45 Cape Verde 46 Lithuania 46 Macau 48 Bahrain 49 Seychelles 50 Hungary 50 Jordan 50 Saudi Arabia 2010 Country Rank Country / Territory 53 Czech Republic 54 Kuwait 54 South Africa 56 Malaysia 56 Namibia 56 Turkey 59 Latvia 59 Slovakia 59 Tunisia 62 Croatia 62 Macedonia, FYR 62 Ghana 62 Samoa 66 Rwanda 67 Italy 68 Georgia 69 Brazil 69 Cuba 69 Montenegro 69 Romania 73 Bulgaria 73 El Salvador 73 Panama 73 Trinidad and Tobago 73 Vanuatu 78 China 78 Colombia 78 Greece 78 Lesotho 78 Peru 78 Serbia 78 Thailand 85 Malawi 85 Morocco 87 Albania 87 India 87 Jamaica 87 Liberia 91 Bosnia and Herzegovina 91 Djibouti 91 Gambia 91 Guatemala 91 Kiribati 91 Sri Lanka 91 Swaziland 98 Burkina Faso 98 Egypt 98 Mexico
  • 56. HAS THE IMF CHANGED SINCE SAPS? 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 58 The 2nd Generation of Reforms: • Concern about poverty; creation of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (1999) • Emphasis on good governance (accountability and transparency in public finances) • Demands government ownership of policies
  • 57. HAS THE IMF CHANGED SINCE SAP? 59 • Increased concern over financial system regulation and supervision • Provides more capacity building and technical assistance • Offered debt relief for first time (MDRI, 2006) 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 58. SOME OLD MESSAGES PERSIST 60 • Growth is the key to poverty reduction • International trade and foreign investment (new technology) are critical for long-term growth • Governments must avoid excessive domestic and foreign debt • African countries need more flexible exchange rates, and more flexible goods and labour markets 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 59. THE ALTERNATIVES TO THE BWIS • Hold more reserves to protect against shocks • Need more commercial borrowing (expensive) • Take more bilateral aid (more political strings attached) Mark Ellyne - Do We Need the IMF 61
  • 60. AFRICA IS EXPERIENCING A RESURGENCE OF GROWTH SINCE 2000 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 62 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 900.0 1,000.0 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 African GDP per Capita in US$
  • 61. AFRICA’S NEW GROWTH SURGE? 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 63 Average GDP growth rates (in Percent) 1980-1990 1991-2000 2001-2012 World 3.2 3.2 3.6 Advanced Economies 3.1 2.8 1.6 Developing Asia 6.6 7.3 8.4 Latin America 2.0 3.1 3.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6 2.3 5.6
  • 62. SINCE THE MID-1990S, TFP GROWTH HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-06 Sub-Saharan Africa Real GDP growth 3.5 1.7 4.4 4.2 Factor accumulation 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0 TFP growth 0.3 -1.3 1.1 1.2 High-growth countries Real GDP growth 5.1 2.7 7.3 5.1 Factor accumulation 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.3 TFP growth 1.1 -1.2 2.5 1.8 Low-growth countries Real GDP growth 3.7 2.8 2.3 1.1 Factor accumulation 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2 TFP growth 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -1.1 HIPC post-completion point countries Real GDP growth 2.6 0.6 4.3 5.2 Factor accumulation 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.4 TFP growth -0.6 -2.3 1.2 1.8 Fragile countries 1 Real GDP growth 2.3 1.7 1.7 0.8 Factor accumulation 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.6 TFP growth -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and staff calculations. 1 Excluding HIPC post-completion point countries (The Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe, and Sierra Leone). Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1985-2006
  • 63. Summary of key messages • Until the mid-1990s, growth in SSA was driven primarily by factor accumulation in all country groups. • Since the mid-1990s, TFP growth has improved strongly in all country groups, except for fragile countries. • TFP accelerations associated with improvements in terms of trade, higher aid, and lower economic and social instability • CFA zone countries have a propensity for TFP decelerations Dan Ghura (2007). Growth Accounting in Africa, IMF Conclusions and Policy Implications 66
  • 64. IS AFRICAN RESURGING? 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 67 Just a fluke: • Just a commodity boom • Due to China and India • No real industrialization This time is different: • More democracy and ownership • More institutional development • More consumerism • More beneficiation
  • 65. BWI/IMF BALANCE SHEET 68 PROs Facilitatesinternational cooperation Provides public informationon all economies Technicalassistanceand policy advice Provides lender of last resort financing Voicefor Africa(LICs) CONs Economic policeman/auditor Requirespolicy conditionality(evenif countyis not be ready) Favourscreditorsover debtors Favoursefficiency(private) over equity (government) Overly conservative 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne
  • 66. IMF IS DISLIKED BY ALL SIDES Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne 69 From the right: Nationalists are dislike supranational institutions; From the left: Socialists dislike polices that hurt poor elements of society; IMF is run by rich countries; IMF follows bad “neoliberal” policies. 1/29/2015
  • 67. DISCUSSION 72 Is the IMF (BWIs) a conspiracy to undermine the economies of low income countries? Are Africa’s problems a result of discrimination, bad advice, or poor policy implementation? Should the IMF (BWIs) be replaced? And with what? 1/29/2015Africa and the IMF – Mark Ellyne

Editor's Notes

  1. I have chosen a big question with many great texts
  2. Many mainstream journalists see the IMF & WB as new rulers of the World; This piece from more serious journalist John Pilger, a recognized journalist
  3. The questions that we want to consider is:
  4. You will hear that the IMF is part of conspiracy; from the Illuminati Conspiracy on the web
  5. Explain graph--show Africa Here I leave you with the big question and the many answers to choose from.
  6. All created after WWII as part of new world order Prevent another great depression Facilitate growth and trade Promote exchange rate stability and convertibility Lender of last resort for balance of payments problems Policy based lending
  7. Forum for econ discussion on international economic issues Center for applied research Provider of specialized technical assistance to governments Producer of public data Fund of $500 bn
  8. Can understand IMF by comparing to WB
  9. 1. Problem can be temporary oil shock—easy Or inflation-depreciation spiral 2. IMF send team – what I did 3. IMF is catalyst 4. policeman
  10. Looking back African econ history Problem emerged in the 1980s GDP/pop is best measure of std of living
  11. Growth is best way to raise living standards @10% double in 7 years; 3% double in 24 years Explains most growth for most countries….
  12. Growth model overpredicts for Africa, Africa underperforms. Sometimes we summarize the problems with Africa by talking about the african dummy, Dumny means that other unidentified factors are reducing growth
  13. Many are non-quantitative factors Tropics/poor quality land; Ethnic diveristy; Abundant mineral resources; Social conflict; Colonial exploitation & slavery Cold war Poorly developed instituions
  14. Response to lack of capital diagnosis; Lend capital to raise Investment Afr debt 25% -> 70%; Asia 15%->30%
  15. Cant resist highlightling Gov’s unique ability print money I went to Zim in 1997, xr=10:1; 2009 xr=1 trillion:1
  16. The WC was summary for policies used, not a toolkit Lets look at WC = neoliberalism;
  17. Country like a household
  18. WC sounds logical, but what are the implications
  19. WC sounds reasonable, but what are implication: Importance of Property rights- Hernando deSoto Polar, Peruvian Mystery of Capital (2000) Focussed on granting property rights to peruvian coca farmers Legal reform and land titles to peasants give them stake in system
  20. “I once heard an official in LIC say that taking money from the IMF was like making love to a Gorilla—you can’t stop until he does” So why didn’t the WC work?
  21. Counter attack against SAP by many, but epitimized by Stiglitz, who was chief econ at WB and Nobel prize winner The Stiglitz Attack was important because he was a member of the establishment Attach began in 1998
  22. Too many prior conditions not met Speed of implementation is critical
  23. Sequencing
  24. Given criticisms: Heard one done say that taking money from the IMF is like making love to a Gorilla...
  25. Given criticisms: Heard one done say that taking money from the IMF is like making love to a Gorilla...
  26. Trevor manuel, former Min Fin, noted that domestic and intl market failures were responsible for failure of WC IMF F&D 2003
  27. Here is how the IMF responds to the attacks that it is at fault. Rogoff is Harvard prof; was chief economist at IMF Countries would have to cut government budget in any case, and without external support
  28. A few important thinkers on Development
  29. New Commentator with new ideas: Zambian African woman
  30. Government is less answerable to its citizens than to intl donors
  31. Corruption is an unproductive tax from poor to rich.
  32. On the other hand Africa got only 17 / 400 $bn of FDI to developing countries Doing business: time to get license, days completing forms;
  33. Collier is Scholar at Oxford and former Chief economist at W Dutch disease is when one important export tends to appreciate the exchange rates and causes traditional exports to no longer be exportable. e.g. Nigeria was agicultural exporter before oil TOT volatility is damanging for doing business and for policy
  34. Other book, Collier talks about conflict and politics Risk reduce domestic and foreign investment
  35. Other book, Collier talks about conflict and politics Risk reduce domestic and foreign investment
  36. Recently found this measure of political risk: Foreign Policy journal and US govern track failed states Central Government is weak or ineffective and has little control over much of its territory. Measure of instability
  37. Average of WB, AFDB, TI, … by Asian Devel Bank 178 countries worldwide 4: top 50 9: 50-100 19: 100-150 11: 150-178
  38. Good governance means accountability and transparency of public finances
  39. Debt relief: Someone always pays For IMF—if forgiven, less money left to lend So members voluntarily contributed to buyback fund
  40. 1980 – 2000 lost decades
  41. Does this mean that IMF/WB are working??
  42. Where do we stand Lender of last resort reduces need for reserves Need economic policeman; and lender of last resort IMF represent Africa/LICs at G7 meeting IMF favors rich – asysmetrical standards but no conspiracy.
  43. IMF remains disliked by all... Eg USA dislikes UN
  44. I leave you with these questions