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Begrepet ”Disruptive
Technology”
Gründerskolen
Erling Maartmann-Moe
Clayton M. Christensen
Professor Harvard Business School
The Innovator’s dilemma: ”When new
technologies cause great firms to fail” (1997)
”Meeting the Challence of Disruptive Change”
(HBR 2000)
Hva skjer med ledende industrier når ny
teknologi endrer konkurransen?
Omfattende analyse med eksempler fra IT, stål-
industri, medisin etc.
2004: The Innovator’s solution – Creating and
sustaining successful growth
© 2006 Innosight LLC
3
The Innovator’s Dilemma
The Innovator’s Solution
Seeing What’s Next
© 2006 Innosight LLC
4
What is innovation?
Innovation is something different that has impact
The often unspoken goal of innovation is to solve a problem
The act of
introducing
something new.
~ American Heritage
Dictionary
A new idea,
method or
device.
~ Merriam-Webster
Online
The successful
exploitation of
new ideas.
~ Dept of Trade and
Industry, UK
Change that
creates a new
dimension of
performance.
~ Peter Drucker
© 2006 Innosight LLC
5
What innovation is not
 Common misperceptions about innovation:
Innovation is all about brand new technology
Innovation is what inventors do
Innovation only concerns products
Innovation is important only when it results in a huge, breakthrough business
 The reality:
Innovation happens every day, in large and small ways, and takes many
forms
Innovation on any scale can help a company meet its growth objective
Innovation comes in many forms
New product or
service
Enabling
technology
Branding/
Marketing
Packaging
New business
model
Internal process
Six Sigma
Utgangspunkt for analyse
Ledende aktør - sterk i sitt marked
Profesjonelle prosesser, sterk kultur
Tuning, ”tinkering”
Hovedmarked eroderes av ny teknologi..
..men nye markeder ikke store nok til å erstatte
bortfall av inntekter, selv om rask vekst
Organisasjonen ikke ”skrudd for” å håndtere
små, nye markeder
Ledende bedrifter overlever ikke
teknologisk endring
De ser endringen komme, men klarer ikke å
håndtere den på en god måte
Ikke èn av de ledende bedriftene innen
minimaskiner klarte å beholde ledelsen da PCen
vant fram
 DEC
 Norsk Data
 Sperry
 Prime
 Wang
 Nixdorf
Mangler ikke dyktighet...
Most big companies have talented managers
and specialists, strong product portfoilios, first-
rate technological know-how, and deep pockets.
What managers lack is the habit of thinking
about their organisations capabilities as carefully
as they think about individual people’s
capabilities.
...men
Forstår ikke typen endring....
..og forsøker å håndtere dem innen
rammen av eksisterende organisasjon og
prosesser
The Innovator’s Dilemma
To typer innovasjon:
Sustaining innovations
 Make products better for mainstream customer
 Existing value network
Disruptive innovations
 Cheaper, simpler, smaller, fringe market
 Create entirely new markets
 Potential to change entire market
Etablerte selskaper flinke på de første, har problemer
med de siste
Utfordring for de etablerte, mulighet for gründere!
Sustaining innovations
Adresserer neste generasjons behov for
eksisterende avanserte kunder
Raskere, mer nøyaktige, billigere
produktprosesser
Biler
Disruptive Innovations
Nytt produkt eller tjeneste, ofte dårligere enn
eksisterende teknologi ved introduksjonen!
Digital Video
 TV-produksjon
Desktop publishing
 Typografer
PC
 Digital Equipment Corporation
FINN
 Annonsemarkedet
Insulin
 Lilly: Humulin
 Novo: Insulin-penn
Performance
demanded at the high
end of the market
Product
Performance
Performance
demanded at the low
end of the market
Disruptive
technological
innovation
© 2006 Innosight LLC
15
Decades of disruptive
innovation
craigs
list
1870 1950
1960 today
What connects these
innovations?
… start with “good enough”
performance along
traditional dimensions
… new benefits such as
simplicity, convenience or
low prices
… appeal to “overshot”
customers or
“nonconsumers”
… often utilize “low cost” or
“start small” business
models
… take advantage of
competitive weaknesses
and blind spots
Vanskelig å ta stilling
Ikke alle nye teknologier vinner fram
 Minitel
 Videotelefoni
Hvordan vurdere et (foreløpig) ikke-
eksisterende marked?
Vil nye eller etablerte aktører ta fordel?
 ”First mover advantage” ?
 Kompletterende/konkurrerende
Timing: Når er det riktig å gå inn?
Disruptive vanskelig for etablerte
”When new technologies cause great firms to
fail”
Vanskelig å bygge rutiner for å håndtere slik
innovasjon
”Lytte til marekdet” gir feil informasjon
For mye overhead til å betjene små markeder
De minst profitable kundene ønsker den nye
teknologien, dvs. ikke mer profitt, men lavere
marginer
Må tørre å konkurrere med seg selv
Strategivalg for etablerte aktører
Time
Performance
Time
Different
Performance
Measure
Two types of disruption
Non-consumers are the ideal target
market
Performance
Time
Pocket radios
Portable TVs
Hearing Aids
Major Established
Electronics Markets:
Tabletop radios, floor-standing
televisions, computers,
telecomm. equipment, etc.
Path
taken
by
established
vacuum
tube
manufacturers
Disruptive innovation: transistors vs. vacuum tubes
Typiske utviklingsfaser for
disruptive innovasjoner
1. Oppfinnelse og teknologiutvikling ofte gjort i etablert
firma
2. Markedsavdeling sjekker mot ledende kunder som
viser liten interesse
3. Etablert firma intensiverer innsats på eksisterende
teknologi
4. Nye firmaer etableres og introduserer teknologi i
markedet, og marked finnes ved prøving og feiling
5. Nye aktører beveger seg up-market
6. Etablerte kaster seg motvillig på det nye for å
forsvare kundebasen sin
© 2006 Innosight LLC
22
Putting the disruptive pattern to work:
Principles for pursuing new growth
 Identify the right “job to be done”
 Prioritize important, unsatisfied jobs
 Determine what can be “good enough”
 Seek different ways to get the job done
 Follow an emergent strategy
 Dig deep for assumptions
 Start simple, cheap and fast
This checklist will help you successfully innovate to create new growth, develop
effective internal processes and sustain the established business
© 2006 Innosight LLC
23
Putting the principles in
practice
 Identify the right “job to be done”
 Prioritize important, unsatisfied jobs
Generate and
prioritize ideas
Shape
solutions
Pilot &
Commercialize
 Follow an emergent strategy
 Start simple, cheap and fast
 Dig deep for assumptions and risks
 Determine what can be “good enough”
 Seek different ways to get the job done
© 2006 Innosight LLC
24
Find the ‘job to be done’
Quarter inch drill Quarter inch hole
Solution Problem
Demographics Circumstances
What? Why?
© 2006 Innosight LLC
25
Sample questions to ask to
discover jobs
 What is the problem you are facing?
 Why do you care about solving it?
 How frequently do you encounter this problem?
 What is the process you use to solve that problem?
 What alternatives do you consider when going through this process?
 Why do you select the option you select?
 What do you like about the option?
 What don’t you like?
 What frustrates you when you are trying to solve this problem?
Useful for customers and consumers
© 2006 Innosight LLC
26
Describing a job to be done
within
Job statement
wants to
Examples:
• Business manager/executive: Help me increase the productivity of my
business within one year
• Working mother: Minimize the amount of time I have to spend on housework
so I can spend more time with my family
• Teenager: Help me look ‘cool’ to my friends when I arrive at school
Customer/
Consumer
circumstances
achieve
result/solve
problem
© 2006 Innosight LLC
27
Prioritize important, unsatisfied
jobs
Important Unsatisfied
+
Opportunity
=
© 2006 Innosight LLC
28
Remember that quality is
relative
Picture quality
Customization and
service
Memories
Convenience, low
cost
Customer is willing to
give this up...
In order to get this…
What is “good enough”?
© 2006 Innosight LLC
29
Overshooting: You can be too good
Call quality Pin drop
Can you hear me
now?
Power
Survives a
blizzard…
… doesn’t
Convenience The home Anywhere
99.999% 80%
Reliability
Do we need to be better
here?
© 2006 Innosight LLC
30
Find creative ways to test
assumptions
Keep it simple, keep it cheap
• Create a rapid, “good enough” prototype
• Talk to/observe customers and consumers
• Talk to internal resources
• Look to your history
• Google the idea
• Talk to experts in the field
• Conduct a focus group
• Scan Internet customer boards
• Perform secondary research
• Identify early milestones
• Launch in a test market
• Research patents
A prototype is anything
that helps communicate
the idea: e.g. mock-ups,
models, simulations, role
playing, experiences.
Prototyping early and
often will save loads of
time and effort. The goal is
to get fast, insightful
customer or end user
feedback.
Alexander Graham Bell
“The ‘telephone’ has too
many short-comings to be
seriously considered as a
means of communication.
The device is inherently of no
value to us.”
— Western Union internal
memo, 1876
The ability to see opportunity
depends on where
you sit
“In the early 1980s AT&T asked McKinsey to estimate
how many cellular phones would be in use in the world
at the turn of the century. The consultancy …
concluded that the total market would be about
900,000. At the time this persuaded AT&T to pull out of
the market.”
— The Economist, 1999
The innovation path is not
always clear
Getting new growth right is hard
Trap 2: Cram efforts into
established models
“I don’t really like
hard disks--they’re
not Sony
technology. As an
engineer, they’re
not interesting.”
Kodak DCS-100
(1990): $30,000
“There is no
reason why
anyone would
want a personal
computer in their
home.”
“All the news that's
fit to pixel.”
Trap 1: Failure to allocate
resources

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DisruptiveGS07.ppt

  • 2. Clayton M. Christensen Professor Harvard Business School The Innovator’s dilemma: ”When new technologies cause great firms to fail” (1997) ”Meeting the Challence of Disruptive Change” (HBR 2000) Hva skjer med ledende industrier når ny teknologi endrer konkurransen? Omfattende analyse med eksempler fra IT, stål- industri, medisin etc. 2004: The Innovator’s solution – Creating and sustaining successful growth
  • 3. © 2006 Innosight LLC 3 The Innovator’s Dilemma The Innovator’s Solution Seeing What’s Next
  • 4. © 2006 Innosight LLC 4 What is innovation? Innovation is something different that has impact The often unspoken goal of innovation is to solve a problem The act of introducing something new. ~ American Heritage Dictionary A new idea, method or device. ~ Merriam-Webster Online The successful exploitation of new ideas. ~ Dept of Trade and Industry, UK Change that creates a new dimension of performance. ~ Peter Drucker
  • 5. © 2006 Innosight LLC 5 What innovation is not  Common misperceptions about innovation: Innovation is all about brand new technology Innovation is what inventors do Innovation only concerns products Innovation is important only when it results in a huge, breakthrough business  The reality: Innovation happens every day, in large and small ways, and takes many forms Innovation on any scale can help a company meet its growth objective
  • 6. Innovation comes in many forms New product or service Enabling technology Branding/ Marketing Packaging New business model Internal process Six Sigma
  • 7. Utgangspunkt for analyse Ledende aktør - sterk i sitt marked Profesjonelle prosesser, sterk kultur Tuning, ”tinkering” Hovedmarked eroderes av ny teknologi.. ..men nye markeder ikke store nok til å erstatte bortfall av inntekter, selv om rask vekst Organisasjonen ikke ”skrudd for” å håndtere små, nye markeder
  • 8. Ledende bedrifter overlever ikke teknologisk endring De ser endringen komme, men klarer ikke å håndtere den på en god måte Ikke èn av de ledende bedriftene innen minimaskiner klarte å beholde ledelsen da PCen vant fram  DEC  Norsk Data  Sperry  Prime  Wang  Nixdorf
  • 9. Mangler ikke dyktighet... Most big companies have talented managers and specialists, strong product portfoilios, first- rate technological know-how, and deep pockets. What managers lack is the habit of thinking about their organisations capabilities as carefully as they think about individual people’s capabilities.
  • 10. ...men Forstår ikke typen endring.... ..og forsøker å håndtere dem innen rammen av eksisterende organisasjon og prosesser
  • 11. The Innovator’s Dilemma To typer innovasjon: Sustaining innovations  Make products better for mainstream customer  Existing value network Disruptive innovations  Cheaper, simpler, smaller, fringe market  Create entirely new markets  Potential to change entire market Etablerte selskaper flinke på de første, har problemer med de siste Utfordring for de etablerte, mulighet for gründere!
  • 12. Sustaining innovations Adresserer neste generasjons behov for eksisterende avanserte kunder Raskere, mer nøyaktige, billigere produktprosesser Biler
  • 13. Disruptive Innovations Nytt produkt eller tjeneste, ofte dårligere enn eksisterende teknologi ved introduksjonen! Digital Video  TV-produksjon Desktop publishing  Typografer PC  Digital Equipment Corporation FINN  Annonsemarkedet Insulin  Lilly: Humulin  Novo: Insulin-penn
  • 14. Performance demanded at the high end of the market Product Performance Performance demanded at the low end of the market Disruptive technological innovation
  • 15. © 2006 Innosight LLC 15 Decades of disruptive innovation craigs list 1870 1950 1960 today What connects these innovations? … start with “good enough” performance along traditional dimensions … new benefits such as simplicity, convenience or low prices … appeal to “overshot” customers or “nonconsumers” … often utilize “low cost” or “start small” business models … take advantage of competitive weaknesses and blind spots
  • 16. Vanskelig å ta stilling Ikke alle nye teknologier vinner fram  Minitel  Videotelefoni Hvordan vurdere et (foreløpig) ikke- eksisterende marked? Vil nye eller etablerte aktører ta fordel?  ”First mover advantage” ?  Kompletterende/konkurrerende Timing: Når er det riktig å gå inn?
  • 17. Disruptive vanskelig for etablerte ”When new technologies cause great firms to fail” Vanskelig å bygge rutiner for å håndtere slik innovasjon ”Lytte til marekdet” gir feil informasjon For mye overhead til å betjene små markeder De minst profitable kundene ønsker den nye teknologien, dvs. ikke mer profitt, men lavere marginer Må tørre å konkurrere med seg selv
  • 20. Non-consumers are the ideal target market Performance Time Pocket radios Portable TVs Hearing Aids Major Established Electronics Markets: Tabletop radios, floor-standing televisions, computers, telecomm. equipment, etc. Path taken by established vacuum tube manufacturers Disruptive innovation: transistors vs. vacuum tubes
  • 21. Typiske utviklingsfaser for disruptive innovasjoner 1. Oppfinnelse og teknologiutvikling ofte gjort i etablert firma 2. Markedsavdeling sjekker mot ledende kunder som viser liten interesse 3. Etablert firma intensiverer innsats på eksisterende teknologi 4. Nye firmaer etableres og introduserer teknologi i markedet, og marked finnes ved prøving og feiling 5. Nye aktører beveger seg up-market 6. Etablerte kaster seg motvillig på det nye for å forsvare kundebasen sin
  • 22. © 2006 Innosight LLC 22 Putting the disruptive pattern to work: Principles for pursuing new growth  Identify the right “job to be done”  Prioritize important, unsatisfied jobs  Determine what can be “good enough”  Seek different ways to get the job done  Follow an emergent strategy  Dig deep for assumptions  Start simple, cheap and fast This checklist will help you successfully innovate to create new growth, develop effective internal processes and sustain the established business
  • 23. © 2006 Innosight LLC 23 Putting the principles in practice  Identify the right “job to be done”  Prioritize important, unsatisfied jobs Generate and prioritize ideas Shape solutions Pilot & Commercialize  Follow an emergent strategy  Start simple, cheap and fast  Dig deep for assumptions and risks  Determine what can be “good enough”  Seek different ways to get the job done
  • 24. © 2006 Innosight LLC 24 Find the ‘job to be done’ Quarter inch drill Quarter inch hole Solution Problem Demographics Circumstances What? Why?
  • 25. © 2006 Innosight LLC 25 Sample questions to ask to discover jobs  What is the problem you are facing?  Why do you care about solving it?  How frequently do you encounter this problem?  What is the process you use to solve that problem?  What alternatives do you consider when going through this process?  Why do you select the option you select?  What do you like about the option?  What don’t you like?  What frustrates you when you are trying to solve this problem? Useful for customers and consumers
  • 26. © 2006 Innosight LLC 26 Describing a job to be done within Job statement wants to Examples: • Business manager/executive: Help me increase the productivity of my business within one year • Working mother: Minimize the amount of time I have to spend on housework so I can spend more time with my family • Teenager: Help me look ‘cool’ to my friends when I arrive at school Customer/ Consumer circumstances achieve result/solve problem
  • 27. © 2006 Innosight LLC 27 Prioritize important, unsatisfied jobs Important Unsatisfied + Opportunity =
  • 28. © 2006 Innosight LLC 28 Remember that quality is relative Picture quality Customization and service Memories Convenience, low cost Customer is willing to give this up... In order to get this… What is “good enough”?
  • 29. © 2006 Innosight LLC 29 Overshooting: You can be too good Call quality Pin drop Can you hear me now? Power Survives a blizzard… … doesn’t Convenience The home Anywhere 99.999% 80% Reliability Do we need to be better here?
  • 30. © 2006 Innosight LLC 30 Find creative ways to test assumptions Keep it simple, keep it cheap • Create a rapid, “good enough” prototype • Talk to/observe customers and consumers • Talk to internal resources • Look to your history • Google the idea • Talk to experts in the field • Conduct a focus group • Scan Internet customer boards • Perform secondary research • Identify early milestones • Launch in a test market • Research patents A prototype is anything that helps communicate the idea: e.g. mock-ups, models, simulations, role playing, experiences. Prototyping early and often will save loads of time and effort. The goal is to get fast, insightful customer or end user feedback.
  • 31. Alexander Graham Bell “The ‘telephone’ has too many short-comings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union internal memo, 1876 The ability to see opportunity depends on where you sit
  • 32. “In the early 1980s AT&T asked McKinsey to estimate how many cellular phones would be in use in the world at the turn of the century. The consultancy … concluded that the total market would be about 900,000. At the time this persuaded AT&T to pull out of the market.” — The Economist, 1999 The innovation path is not always clear
  • 33. Getting new growth right is hard Trap 2: Cram efforts into established models “I don’t really like hard disks--they’re not Sony technology. As an engineer, they’re not interesting.” Kodak DCS-100 (1990): $30,000 “There is no reason why anyone would want a personal computer in their home.” “All the news that's fit to pixel.” Trap 1: Failure to allocate resources