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Jason S. Kessler | Predictive Analytics World, May 17, 2017
@jasonkessler
Discovering Persuasive
Language through Observing
Customer Behavior
2
A car dealership’s home page
Reviews that are
• five star,
• recent
But: 1,508 reviews!
• Lots that fit both
categories.
Which reviews should you feature on your home page?
@jasonkessler
3
A car dealership’s home pageCDK Data Science:
• Predict how customers
will respond to
language
Help customers:
• Pick influential reviews
• Write more effective
email responses
• Etc.
Which reviews should you feature on your home page?
@jasonkessler
4
Measuring how well a review converts users
…I was very skeptical giving up my truck
and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6'
215lbs, but my new career has me driving
a personal vehicle to make sales calls…
Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website
Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze
@jasonkessler
5
Measuring how well a review converts users
…I was very skeptical giving up my truck
and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6'
215lbs, but my new career has me driving
a personal vehicle to make sales calls…
Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website
Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze
# users reading
review 20
15
# of those who
went to a Chevy
dealer’s website
@jasonkessler
6
Measuring how well a review converts users
…I was very skeptical giving up my truck
and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6'
215lbs, but my new career has me driving
a personal vehicle to make sales calls…
Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website
Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze
# users reading
review 20
15
# of those who
went to a Chevy
dealer’s website
15/20=75%
Review conversion rate:
@jasonkessler
7
Measuring how well a review converts users
…I was very skeptical giving up my truck
and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6'
215lbs, but my new career has me driving
a personal vehicle to make sales calls…
Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website
Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze
# users reading
review 20
15
# of those who
went to a Chevy
dealer’s website
15/20=75%
Review conversion rate:
22%
Median conversion rate:
@jasonkessler
8
Not all
positive
reviews
encourage
conversion!
Conversionrate
Review Star Rating @jasonkessler
9
CAVEAT
The subsequent results
have evidence to support them, but
are based on limited data.
Use them to form hypotheses for
later testing. @jasonkessler
10
Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV-specific)
5 star review words
Love
Comfortable
Features
Solid
Amazing
<3 star review words
Transmission
Problem
Issue
Dealership
Times
How did we find these associated
terms?
• L2-penalized logistic regression
• Each review is an instance
• Set-of-words features
• Class label: 5 star or 1-2 star
• Ranked by coefficients
• Lots of ways to do this:
• pip install scattertext
• https://github.com/JasonKessler/scattertext
@jasonkessler
11
CDK Global: Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV-specific)
5 star review words High conversion words
Love Comfortable
Comfortable Front [Seats]
Features Acceleration
Solid Free [Car Wash, Oil Change]
Amazing Quiet
<3 star review words
Transmission
Problem
Issue
Dealership
Times
@jasonkessler
12
CDK Global: Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV-specific)
5 star review words High conversion words
Love Comfortable
Comfortable Front [Seats]
Features Acceleration
Solid Free [Car Wash, Oil Change]
Amazing Quiet
<3 star review words Low conversion words
Transmission Money [spend my, save]
Problem Features
Issue Dealership
Dealership Amazing
Times Build Quality [typically positive]
@jasonkessler
13
CDK Global: Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV Specific)
5 star review words High conversion words
Love Comfortable
Comfortable Front [Seats]
Features Acceleration
Solid Free [Car Wash, Oil Change]
Amazing Quiet
<3 star review words Low conversion words
Transmission Money [spend my, save]
Problem Features
Issue Dealership
Dealership Amazing
Times Build Quality [typically positive]
The worst thing
you can say about
an SUV may be:
I saved money
and got all these
amazing features!
Tip 1: be specific!
@jasonkessler
14
Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews.
Which will make customers more likely to buy?
“Sporty clean lines,
liquid handling, and
the torque is just
plain fun!!!”
“I do a lot of two
lane passing and it
has never left me
wishing I had more
power.”
or
@jasonkessler
15
Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews.
Which will make customers more likely to buy?
“Sporty clean lines,
liquid handling, and
the torque is just
plain fun!!!”
“I do a lot of two
lane passing and it
has never left me
wishing I had more
power.”
or
@jasonkessler
16
Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews.
Which will make customers more likely to buy?
“Sporty clean lines,
liquid handling, and
the torque is just
plain fun!!!”
“I do a lot of two
lane passing and it
has never left me
wishing I had more
power.”
or
@jasonkessler
17
Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews.
Which will make customers more likely to buy?
“Sporty clean lines,
liquid handling, and
the torque is just
plain fun!!!”
“I do a lot of two
lane passing and it
has never left me
wishing I had more
power.”
or
The word torque is among the 10 best predictors a midsize sedan review will have a
low post-read conversion rate. @jasonkessler
18
Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews.
Which will make customers more likely to buy?
“Sporty clean lines,
liquid handling, and
the torque is just
plain fun!!!”
“I do a lot of two
lane passing and it
has never left me
wishing I had more
power.”
or
The word passing is the best predictor that a midsize sedan review will have a high
post-read conversion rate. @jasonkessler
19
Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews.
Which will make customers more likely to buy?
“Sporty clean lines,
liquid handling, and
the torque is just
plain fun!!!”
“I do a lot of two
lane passing and it
has never left me
wishing I had more
power.”
or
The word passing is the best predictor that a midsize sedan review will have a high
post-read conversion rate.
Tip 2: For non-expert customers: pain
points > jargon
@jasonkessler
20
How should you response to an email lead?
• Email close rate:
– dealership sells to customer who emails them thru website
• 3 months of email close rates across over 1,300 US
dealerships
• One volume or one luxury brand
• Mystery shopped top and bottom 10% of the population
– two new vehicle leads to gather lead responses.
@jasonkessler
21
Our Study Group
High
Group Low Group
Average
Unique
Leads
145 179
Average
Close Rate 10.9% 1.6%
Monthly Internet
Results
@jasonkessler
22
How should you response to an email lead?
High converting Low Conversion
Text
“send me a text”
Cell
“call me on my cell”
Schedule
“Contact me to schedule a test
drive.”
Goal
“out #1 goal is customer
satisfaction”
Life
“free oil changes for the life of
your vehicle”
Personally
“I would personally like to invite you
our to our dealership”
Store Dealership
@jasonkessler
23
High converting Low Conversion
Text
“send me a text”
Cell
“call me on my cell”
Schedule
“Contact me to schedule a test
drive.”
Goal
“out #1 goal is customer
satisfaction”
Life
“free oil changes for the life of
your vehicle”
Personally
“I would personally like to invite you
our to our dealership”
Store Dealership
How should you response to an email lead?
Tip 3: Speak to the customer’s next steps
and desires. Don’t be vacuous.
@jasonkessler
24
Thank you.
@jasonkessler
1. Be specific.
2. For non-expert customers: pain points > jargon.
3. Speak to the customer’s next steps and
desires. Don’t be vacuous.

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Discovering Persuasive Language through Observing Customer Behavior

  • 1. 1 Jason S. Kessler | Predictive Analytics World, May 17, 2017 @jasonkessler Discovering Persuasive Language through Observing Customer Behavior
  • 2. 2 A car dealership’s home page Reviews that are • five star, • recent But: 1,508 reviews! • Lots that fit both categories. Which reviews should you feature on your home page? @jasonkessler
  • 3. 3 A car dealership’s home pageCDK Data Science: • Predict how customers will respond to language Help customers: • Pick influential reviews • Write more effective email responses • Etc. Which reviews should you feature on your home page? @jasonkessler
  • 4. 4 Measuring how well a review converts users …I was very skeptical giving up my truck and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6' 215lbs, but my new career has me driving a personal vehicle to make sales calls… Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze @jasonkessler
  • 5. 5 Measuring how well a review converts users …I was very skeptical giving up my truck and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6' 215lbs, but my new career has me driving a personal vehicle to make sales calls… Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze # users reading review 20 15 # of those who went to a Chevy dealer’s website @jasonkessler
  • 6. 6 Measuring how well a review converts users …I was very skeptical giving up my truck and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6' 215lbs, but my new career has me driving a personal vehicle to make sales calls… Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze # users reading review 20 15 # of those who went to a Chevy dealer’s website 15/20=75% Review conversion rate: @jasonkessler
  • 7. 7 Measuring how well a review converts users …I was very skeptical giving up my truck and buying an "Economy Car." I'm 6' 215lbs, but my new career has me driving a personal vehicle to make sales calls… Review Appearing on a Car Enthusiast Website Car Reviewed: Chevy Cruze # users reading review 20 15 # of those who went to a Chevy dealer’s website 15/20=75% Review conversion rate: 22% Median conversion rate: @jasonkessler
  • 9. 9 CAVEAT The subsequent results have evidence to support them, but are based on limited data. Use them to form hypotheses for later testing. @jasonkessler
  • 10. 10 Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV-specific) 5 star review words Love Comfortable Features Solid Amazing <3 star review words Transmission Problem Issue Dealership Times How did we find these associated terms? • L2-penalized logistic regression • Each review is an instance • Set-of-words features • Class label: 5 star or 1-2 star • Ranked by coefficients • Lots of ways to do this: • pip install scattertext • https://github.com/JasonKessler/scattertext @jasonkessler
  • 11. 11 CDK Global: Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV-specific) 5 star review words High conversion words Love Comfortable Comfortable Front [Seats] Features Acceleration Solid Free [Car Wash, Oil Change] Amazing Quiet <3 star review words Transmission Problem Issue Dealership Times @jasonkessler
  • 12. 12 CDK Global: Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV-specific) 5 star review words High conversion words Love Comfortable Comfortable Front [Seats] Features Acceleration Solid Free [Car Wash, Oil Change] Amazing Quiet <3 star review words Low conversion words Transmission Money [spend my, save] Problem Features Issue Dealership Dealership Amazing Times Build Quality [typically positive] @jasonkessler
  • 13. 13 CDK Global: Finding Words that Sell Cars (SUV Specific) 5 star review words High conversion words Love Comfortable Comfortable Front [Seats] Features Acceleration Solid Free [Car Wash, Oil Change] Amazing Quiet <3 star review words Low conversion words Transmission Money [spend my, save] Problem Features Issue Dealership Dealership Amazing Times Build Quality [typically positive] The worst thing you can say about an SUV may be: I saved money and got all these amazing features! Tip 1: be specific! @jasonkessler
  • 14. 14 Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews. Which will make customers more likely to buy? “Sporty clean lines, liquid handling, and the torque is just plain fun!!!” “I do a lot of two lane passing and it has never left me wishing I had more power.” or @jasonkessler
  • 15. 15 Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews. Which will make customers more likely to buy? “Sporty clean lines, liquid handling, and the torque is just plain fun!!!” “I do a lot of two lane passing and it has never left me wishing I had more power.” or @jasonkessler
  • 16. 16 Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews. Which will make customers more likely to buy? “Sporty clean lines, liquid handling, and the torque is just plain fun!!!” “I do a lot of two lane passing and it has never left me wishing I had more power.” or @jasonkessler
  • 17. 17 Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews. Which will make customers more likely to buy? “Sporty clean lines, liquid handling, and the torque is just plain fun!!!” “I do a lot of two lane passing and it has never left me wishing I had more power.” or The word torque is among the 10 best predictors a midsize sedan review will have a low post-read conversion rate. @jasonkessler
  • 18. 18 Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews. Which will make customers more likely to buy? “Sporty clean lines, liquid handling, and the torque is just plain fun!!!” “I do a lot of two lane passing and it has never left me wishing I had more power.” or The word passing is the best predictor that a midsize sedan review will have a high post-read conversion rate. @jasonkessler
  • 19. 19 Two snippets from midsize sedan reviews. Which will make customers more likely to buy? “Sporty clean lines, liquid handling, and the torque is just plain fun!!!” “I do a lot of two lane passing and it has never left me wishing I had more power.” or The word passing is the best predictor that a midsize sedan review will have a high post-read conversion rate. Tip 2: For non-expert customers: pain points > jargon @jasonkessler
  • 20. 20 How should you response to an email lead? • Email close rate: – dealership sells to customer who emails them thru website • 3 months of email close rates across over 1,300 US dealerships • One volume or one luxury brand • Mystery shopped top and bottom 10% of the population – two new vehicle leads to gather lead responses. @jasonkessler
  • 21. 21 Our Study Group High Group Low Group Average Unique Leads 145 179 Average Close Rate 10.9% 1.6% Monthly Internet Results @jasonkessler
  • 22. 22 How should you response to an email lead? High converting Low Conversion Text “send me a text” Cell “call me on my cell” Schedule “Contact me to schedule a test drive.” Goal “out #1 goal is customer satisfaction” Life “free oil changes for the life of your vehicle” Personally “I would personally like to invite you our to our dealership” Store Dealership @jasonkessler
  • 23. 23 High converting Low Conversion Text “send me a text” Cell “call me on my cell” Schedule “Contact me to schedule a test drive.” Goal “out #1 goal is customer satisfaction” Life “free oil changes for the life of your vehicle” Personally “I would personally like to invite you our to our dealership” Store Dealership How should you response to an email lead? Tip 3: Speak to the customer’s next steps and desires. Don’t be vacuous. @jasonkessler
  • 24. 24 Thank you. @jasonkessler 1. Be specific. 2. For non-expert customers: pain points > jargon. 3. Speak to the customer’s next steps and desires. Don’t be vacuous.

Editor's Notes

  1. Imagine you’d like to display a couple reviews on a car dealership’s home page. They have over 1500 reviews to pick from. Which ones should you show? They should probably be positive and recent, but what should they talk about? What tone should they use? What words should they use? CDK Global has algorithms that can help our customers know what to look for.
  2. Imagine you’d like to display a couple reviews on a car dealership’s home page. They have over 1500 reviews to pick from. Which ones should you show? They should probably be positive and recent, but what should they talk about? What tone should they use? What words should they use? CDK Global has algorithms that can help our customers know what to look for.
  3. This is a very good review.
  4. Three and four star reviews may be more credible.
  5. We omit 3 and 4 star reviews.
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  9. Persuasive language may not be what you expect. Both sentences are highly positive and from highly positive reviews.
  10. Both are positive
  11. Both are positive
  12. Let’s see how we came to this conclusion. One on the right converted. Think I’m 6’4” and have plenty of head room vs 41 inches of interior height.
  13. Let’s see how we came to this conclusion. One on the right converted
  14. Objective: Do dealerships who have a high email close rate communicate differently than dealerships who have a low close rate? First of all, the answer is yes! We used sentiment analysis to determine if there were differences in the words used by high closing dealerships and low closing dealerships. And, we built a prototype Consumer Language Tool that helps us dive deeper into the context of those negative and positive words. We are able to determine if a response is an auto response or a person and only counted the first response from a human
  15. Selected terms
  16. Selected terms