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Ecosystems and Digital Business Models 
Telenor Digital Winners © VisionMobile.com. October 2014
VisionMobile | the analysts of the developer economy 
We#help#companies#understand#developers#and#create#winning#ecosystems# 
survey trends across  
10,000+ app developers 
largest ever developer survey 
clients 
trusted by the top names in tech 
target the right 
developer segments 
unique segmentation methodology 
measure and improve your 
ecosystem performance 
track technology usage and 
awareness across 100,000s of apps
Andreas Constantinou 
CEO  Founder, VisionMobile 
Adjunct Professor, Lund University 
@andreascon 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
3
Digital Ecosystems and Co-creation Networks 
© 2014 VisionMobile
Ecosystem business models are behind most startups 
Top-10 companies most referenced by Angelist startups in their 1-line pitch. 
These account for 46% of all startup references on Angelist (2013) 
© 2014 VisionMobile
Apple GDP: The iOS ecosystem has grown to $180B  
Apple captured most of this revenue in 2013 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
iOS platform 
content owners 
(music, books, 
magazines, movies 
content licensing 
revenues 
device sales 
content revenue share 
accessories revenue share 
devices 
App Store 
content platform 
direct revenues, 
user engagement 
premium 
mobile computing 
experience 
access to market 
revenues from 
sales of premium 
devices 
accessory 
manufacturers 
accessories, revenue 
share 
6 
how value is captured 
mobile app 
developers 
Source: VisionMobile analysis 
Figures for 2013 
content 
apps and games 
App Store 
$138B 
iOS device 
revenue 
$27B 
app revenue, ads 
revenue and 
contract sales 
$9B 
content license 
revenue 
$7B 
accessory sales
Android GDP: an ecosystem valued at $260B 
Enormous defensive value for Google’s core business, but little direct value capture 
Handset OEMs 
mobile app 
developers 
technology and services 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
user engagement apps 
and direct revenues 
Play Store compatibility 
certification 
Android platform 
eyeballs 
insights 
technology 
services, free content 
governance 
app store 
7 
how value is captured 
handsets 
mass-market 
mobile computing 
experience 
eyeballs 
$210B 
handset sales 
$6B 
est. revenue from ads 
on Android devices 
$26B 
app revenue, ads 
revenue and 
contract sales 
Source: VisionMobile analysis 
Figures for 2013
How did Apple, Google build ecosystem empires? 
What can history teach us? 
8 © 2014 VisionMobile
Apple, Google emerged out of the ashes of 20+ dead platforms. 
Only the first-mover app ecosystems survived 
= dead end 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
9 
2000 2001 2002 app ecosystems software platforms 
Android 
iOS 
Azingo 
Access ALP 
OpenWave MIDAS 
A la Mobile 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 
Comneon Apoxi 
Danger OS 
e-SIM Intrinsyc OS 
IXI Mobile Mizi Prizm 
S40 
Motorola L-J 
Nokia GEOS 
OpenMoko 
Palm 5/6 
Sasken Aria 
SavaJe OS 
SKY-MAP 
TTPCom Ajar 
MeeGo 
Tizen 
Firefox OS 
Windows 
Phone 
Blackberry 
Maemo 
Bada 
Jolla 
first two platforms 
with an app store 
Ubuntu 
bubble size = apps available 
Only the first-mover, 
app ecosystems survived
© 2014 VisionMobile 
10 
Apple / Google built ecosystems, not just platforms 
ecosystem platform technology=+people  companies 
OS
iOS, Android built app ecosystems with superior economics 
app ecosystems have very different economics to platforms before them 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
software 
platform 
communications 
platform 
app 
ecosystem* 
examples Linux 
participants handset makers users users and developers 
wins by sharing costs and risks of 
software development 
connecting large 
number of users 
connecting users with 
developers 
economics economies 
of scale 
same-side 
network effects 
same- and cross-side 
network effects with winner-takes- 
all dynamics 
growth 
potential linear quadratic exponential 
*also referred to as a computing platform
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Ecosystem economics resulted in a duopoly  
12
Apple, Android deliver benefits to all sides 
exponential growth comes from cross-side network effects across all five sides 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
mobile platforms 
app developers 
handset makers 
operators 
13 
brands 
advertisers 
reach eyeballs 
increase ad value with insights 
engage audience 
reduce costs 
be able to compete in 
smartphone market 
find choice  novelty (apps) 
be sure of quality 
convenience 
support identity 
increase ARPU 
lock-in users 
achieve personal fulfilment 
have commercial success 
belong to a community
To compete, challengers have to achieve the impossible 
three conditions necessary to compete with Apple / Android 
Three conditions to compete: 
achieve the same outcomes 
cheaper/faster/better 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
mobile platforms 
14 
2 activate all sides of the network 
simultaneously for same-rate 
growth 
1 
3 Incur additional opportunity 
cost for participants due to 
limited resources 
(e.g. to adopt WP you have to abandon 
Android)
Mobile app ecosystems create black oceans 
Blue ocean 
uncontested markets 
no competition 
e.g. luxury home appliances 
Red ocean 
existing markets 
fierce competition 
e.g. mobile handsets 
no name 
Inspired by “Blue Ocean Strategy” (2005) by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne (INSEAD) 
Black ocean 
ecosystem-driven markets 
impossible competition 
e.g. app ecosystems 
15 © 2014 VisionMobile
How do you compete 
In a black ocean? 
16 © 2014 VisionMobile
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Leverage, don’t compete 
how Facebook sees the world of mobile platforms 
17
FB and Amazon leverage  attack weak points of ecosystems  
Operating systems are a commodity, no longer the basis of competition 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
operating 
system 
runtime APIs 
tool chain 
app 
platform 
monetization 
distribution 
retailing 
app 
ecosystem 
developers 
users 
compete head-on attack weak points  
duopoly leverage ecosystems 
18 
tools 
ecosystem 
analytics 
monetisation 
discovery 
*rumored $2.6B in OEM incentives for 2014. 
Amazon adds: 
+better discovery 
+active paying customers 
+integrated device 
* 
FB adds: 
+better discovery 
+ad monetisation 
+deep app links 
+free SDK bundle
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Successful ecosystems lock demand to supply 
To strengthen network effects 
producers 
e.g. developers 
doctors 
taxi drivers 
landlords 
consumers 
e.g. users 
patients 
taxi riders 
tenants 
19 
development distribution discovery
producers consumers 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Successful ecosystems have 3 control points 
Development, distribution and discovery 
20 
Development Distribution Discovery 
Platform APIs 
Tools 
Performance 
management 
Marketplace connecting 
producers to consumers 
Monetization tools 
Distribution 
partnerships 
Discovery, promotion, 
placement, search, 
recommendations 
Curation 
developers users 
control points
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Asymmetric Business Models
A business model describes the rationale of how an 
organization creates, delivers, and captures value,... 
Wikipedia 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
value 
creation 
value 
capture 
value 
delivery 
“ 
22
Digital changes how value is created, delivered and captured 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
23 
traditional 
business models 
digital 
business models 
value 
creation 
create a product 
within your industry 
create value 
in a new industry 
value 
delivery 
deliver through 
established 
distributors 
transfer value as 
attention (FB), 
intent (Google) or data 
(Waze) to your core industry 
value 
capture 
sell product 
for money 
Capture in your core industry 
as money 
Source: VisionMobile
Asymmetric Business Models: transfer value across industries 
handsets media retail advertising 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
devices 
Kindle 
Fire 
value creation value capture 
Amazon 
app store 
e-commerce 
sales 
App Store 
Google 
Wallet 
value destruction value transfer 
24 
devices 
travel 
Google 
Play 
ad 
sales 
Google 
Android Flights 
handsets
© 2014 VisionMobile 
ABM = A business model 
that crosses industries,  
by forcing profits to migrate  
from one industry into another. 
25
Asymmetric Business Models are based on economics of complements 
Core product Complement 
A product consumed 
with the main product 
A product where a business 
generates profits 
commoditise 
Google core business mobile is a complement 
commoditise 
on-line advertising 
(90+ % of profits) 
Closed “Open” 
mobile networks handsets 
net neutrality Android 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
26 
commoditisation of mobile increases demand for Google products
vs. vs. 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
ABMs cause disappearance of industry boundaries 
competition between 
products 
inside-out thinking 
defined by product features 
what product the customer will buy? 
27 Source: VisionMobile 
competition between 
industries 
outside-in thinking 
defined by product benefits 
what customer is trying to get done? 
vs. vs. 
“selling a newspaper” “killing 10 minutes of time” 
“selling a phone service” “keep in touch with friends”
ABMs are often disguised as feature or price competition – 
Understand it before it’s too late 
Telcos saw Android and iOS as a competing ‘ringtone’ business. 
They set up WAC to compete with iOS and Android for apps revenues. 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
28 
2010 
2012
Google is asymmetrically disrupting industry after industry 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
29 
ads 
Search, AdWords 
enterprise software 
Google Apps 
mobile 
Android 
PC 
Chromebook 
TV 
Chromecast, YouTube 
home appliances 
Nest 
travel 
Google Maps, Google Flights 
wearables 
Android Wear 
automotive 
Android Auto
© 2014 VisionMobile 
The Digital Business Model Recipe
© 2014 VisionMobile 
The Digital Innovation Dilemma 
Corporate innovation now has two options: diversify or grow asymmetrically 
31 
=revenues 
new market new market 
profits 
core 
business 
profits Diversify Grow 
asymmetrically 
Direction !  
Profit 
from core biz to 
migration 
new market 
from new market 
to core biz 
Strategy acquire growth 
companies in 
new markets 
create 
complements in 
new markets 
Integrate marketing bundle core biz 
Act like private equity Google 
KPIs new revenues core business 
growth 
diversify 
grow 
asymmetrically
© 2014 VisionMobile 
The 3-step recipe of digital business models 
32 
Identify complements to your product in a new market 
Boost demand for complements (subsidise, use ecosystems) 
Bundle complements with your core business 
1 
2 
3
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Example: Apple iOS ecosystem 
core business – consumer electronics 
step how Apple implements it 
identify complements in 
new market mobile apps 
boost demand for 
complements create developer ecosystem and app store 
bundle with core business iOS apps only available on iDevices 
33
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Example: Google Android ecosystem 
core business – online advertising 
34 
step how Google implements it 
identify complements in 
new market mobile operating system 
boost demand for 
complements 
commoditise smartphones, 
create developer ecosystem and app store 
bundle with core business Android OEMs must preload Google services
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Example: Amazon Fire tablets and phones 
core business - ecommerce 
35 
step how Amazon implements it 
identify complements in 
new market tablets, smartphones 
boost demand for 
complements sell devices at cost to acquire users 
bundle with core business Bundle devices with immersive shopping 
experience
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Example: WeChat messaging app 
core business - ecommerce 
36 
step how WeChat implements it 
identify complements in 
new market 
Messaging apps 
Taxi services 
boost demand for 
complements 
Free messaging, 3rd party ecosystem, 
incentives 
bundle with core business Messaging is bundled with Tencent 
ecommerce services
© 2014 VisionMobile 
And now fast forward into the future..
Audience question 
Which industry is most likely to be 
disrupted next by digital business models? 
- Automotive 
- Travel 
- Healthcare 
- Energy 
- Logistics 
- Fashion 
- Construction 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
38
If you could speak to 10,000 developers 
What would you ask them? 
© 2014 VisionMobile
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. 
© 2014 VisionMobile 
Andreas Constantinou 
CEO  Principal Analyst 
andreas@visionmobile.com 
+44 20 8123 1738 
Track developer trends 
Talk 
to us 
Work 
With us 
If you could 
speak to 
10,000 app 
developers, 
what would 
you ask them?

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Ecosystems and Digital Business Models

  • 1. Ecosystems and Digital Business Models Telenor Digital Winners © VisionMobile.com. October 2014
  • 2. VisionMobile | the analysts of the developer economy We#help#companies#understand#developers#and#create#winning#ecosystems# survey trends across 10,000+ app developers largest ever developer survey clients trusted by the top names in tech target the right developer segments unique segmentation methodology measure and improve your ecosystem performance track technology usage and awareness across 100,000s of apps
  • 3. Andreas Constantinou CEO Founder, VisionMobile Adjunct Professor, Lund University @andreascon © 2014 VisionMobile 3
  • 4. Digital Ecosystems and Co-creation Networks © 2014 VisionMobile
  • 5. Ecosystem business models are behind most startups Top-10 companies most referenced by Angelist startups in their 1-line pitch. These account for 46% of all startup references on Angelist (2013) © 2014 VisionMobile
  • 6. Apple GDP: The iOS ecosystem has grown to $180B Apple captured most of this revenue in 2013 © 2014 VisionMobile iOS platform content owners (music, books, magazines, movies content licensing revenues device sales content revenue share accessories revenue share devices App Store content platform direct revenues, user engagement premium mobile computing experience access to market revenues from sales of premium devices accessory manufacturers accessories, revenue share 6 how value is captured mobile app developers Source: VisionMobile analysis Figures for 2013 content apps and games App Store $138B iOS device revenue $27B app revenue, ads revenue and contract sales $9B content license revenue $7B accessory sales
  • 7. Android GDP: an ecosystem valued at $260B Enormous defensive value for Google’s core business, but little direct value capture Handset OEMs mobile app developers technology and services © 2014 VisionMobile user engagement apps and direct revenues Play Store compatibility certification Android platform eyeballs insights technology services, free content governance app store 7 how value is captured handsets mass-market mobile computing experience eyeballs $210B handset sales $6B est. revenue from ads on Android devices $26B app revenue, ads revenue and contract sales Source: VisionMobile analysis Figures for 2013
  • 8. How did Apple, Google build ecosystem empires? What can history teach us? 8 © 2014 VisionMobile
  • 9. Apple, Google emerged out of the ashes of 20+ dead platforms. Only the first-mover app ecosystems survived = dead end © 2014 VisionMobile 9 2000 2001 2002 app ecosystems software platforms Android iOS Azingo Access ALP OpenWave MIDAS A la Mobile 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Comneon Apoxi Danger OS e-SIM Intrinsyc OS IXI Mobile Mizi Prizm S40 Motorola L-J Nokia GEOS OpenMoko Palm 5/6 Sasken Aria SavaJe OS SKY-MAP TTPCom Ajar MeeGo Tizen Firefox OS Windows Phone Blackberry Maemo Bada Jolla first two platforms with an app store Ubuntu bubble size = apps available Only the first-mover, app ecosystems survived
  • 10. © 2014 VisionMobile 10 Apple / Google built ecosystems, not just platforms ecosystem platform technology=+people companies OS
  • 11. iOS, Android built app ecosystems with superior economics app ecosystems have very different economics to platforms before them © 2014 VisionMobile software platform communications platform app ecosystem* examples Linux participants handset makers users users and developers wins by sharing costs and risks of software development connecting large number of users connecting users with developers economics economies of scale same-side network effects same- and cross-side network effects with winner-takes- all dynamics growth potential linear quadratic exponential *also referred to as a computing platform
  • 12. © 2014 VisionMobile Ecosystem economics resulted in a duopoly 12
  • 13. Apple, Android deliver benefits to all sides exponential growth comes from cross-side network effects across all five sides © 2014 VisionMobile mobile platforms app developers handset makers operators 13 brands advertisers reach eyeballs increase ad value with insights engage audience reduce costs be able to compete in smartphone market find choice novelty (apps) be sure of quality convenience support identity increase ARPU lock-in users achieve personal fulfilment have commercial success belong to a community
  • 14. To compete, challengers have to achieve the impossible three conditions necessary to compete with Apple / Android Three conditions to compete: achieve the same outcomes cheaper/faster/better © 2014 VisionMobile mobile platforms 14 2 activate all sides of the network simultaneously for same-rate growth 1 3 Incur additional opportunity cost for participants due to limited resources (e.g. to adopt WP you have to abandon Android)
  • 15. Mobile app ecosystems create black oceans Blue ocean uncontested markets no competition e.g. luxury home appliances Red ocean existing markets fierce competition e.g. mobile handsets no name Inspired by “Blue Ocean Strategy” (2005) by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne (INSEAD) Black ocean ecosystem-driven markets impossible competition e.g. app ecosystems 15 © 2014 VisionMobile
  • 16. How do you compete In a black ocean? 16 © 2014 VisionMobile
  • 17. © 2014 VisionMobile Leverage, don’t compete how Facebook sees the world of mobile platforms 17
  • 18. FB and Amazon leverage attack weak points of ecosystems Operating systems are a commodity, no longer the basis of competition © 2014 VisionMobile operating system runtime APIs tool chain app platform monetization distribution retailing app ecosystem developers users compete head-on attack weak points duopoly leverage ecosystems 18 tools ecosystem analytics monetisation discovery *rumored $2.6B in OEM incentives for 2014. Amazon adds: +better discovery +active paying customers +integrated device * FB adds: +better discovery +ad monetisation +deep app links +free SDK bundle
  • 19. © 2014 VisionMobile Successful ecosystems lock demand to supply To strengthen network effects producers e.g. developers doctors taxi drivers landlords consumers e.g. users patients taxi riders tenants 19 development distribution discovery
  • 20. producers consumers © 2014 VisionMobile Successful ecosystems have 3 control points Development, distribution and discovery 20 Development Distribution Discovery Platform APIs Tools Performance management Marketplace connecting producers to consumers Monetization tools Distribution partnerships Discovery, promotion, placement, search, recommendations Curation developers users control points
  • 21. © 2014 VisionMobile Asymmetric Business Models
  • 22. A business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value,... Wikipedia © 2014 VisionMobile value creation value capture value delivery “ 22
  • 23. Digital changes how value is created, delivered and captured © 2014 VisionMobile 23 traditional business models digital business models value creation create a product within your industry create value in a new industry value delivery deliver through established distributors transfer value as attention (FB), intent (Google) or data (Waze) to your core industry value capture sell product for money Capture in your core industry as money Source: VisionMobile
  • 24. Asymmetric Business Models: transfer value across industries handsets media retail advertising © 2014 VisionMobile devices Kindle Fire value creation value capture Amazon app store e-commerce sales App Store Google Wallet value destruction value transfer 24 devices travel Google Play ad sales Google Android Flights handsets
  • 25. © 2014 VisionMobile ABM = A business model that crosses industries, by forcing profits to migrate from one industry into another. 25
  • 26. Asymmetric Business Models are based on economics of complements Core product Complement A product consumed with the main product A product where a business generates profits commoditise Google core business mobile is a complement commoditise on-line advertising (90+ % of profits) Closed “Open” mobile networks handsets net neutrality Android © 2014 VisionMobile 26 commoditisation of mobile increases demand for Google products
  • 27. vs. vs. © 2014 VisionMobile ABMs cause disappearance of industry boundaries competition between products inside-out thinking defined by product features what product the customer will buy? 27 Source: VisionMobile competition between industries outside-in thinking defined by product benefits what customer is trying to get done? vs. vs. “selling a newspaper” “killing 10 minutes of time” “selling a phone service” “keep in touch with friends”
  • 28. ABMs are often disguised as feature or price competition – Understand it before it’s too late Telcos saw Android and iOS as a competing ‘ringtone’ business. They set up WAC to compete with iOS and Android for apps revenues. © 2014 VisionMobile 28 2010 2012
  • 29. Google is asymmetrically disrupting industry after industry © 2014 VisionMobile 29 ads Search, AdWords enterprise software Google Apps mobile Android PC Chromebook TV Chromecast, YouTube home appliances Nest travel Google Maps, Google Flights wearables Android Wear automotive Android Auto
  • 30. © 2014 VisionMobile The Digital Business Model Recipe
  • 31. © 2014 VisionMobile The Digital Innovation Dilemma Corporate innovation now has two options: diversify or grow asymmetrically 31 =revenues new market new market profits core business profits Diversify Grow asymmetrically Direction ! Profit from core biz to migration new market from new market to core biz Strategy acquire growth companies in new markets create complements in new markets Integrate marketing bundle core biz Act like private equity Google KPIs new revenues core business growth diversify grow asymmetrically
  • 32. © 2014 VisionMobile The 3-step recipe of digital business models 32 Identify complements to your product in a new market Boost demand for complements (subsidise, use ecosystems) Bundle complements with your core business 1 2 3
  • 33. © 2014 VisionMobile Example: Apple iOS ecosystem core business – consumer electronics step how Apple implements it identify complements in new market mobile apps boost demand for complements create developer ecosystem and app store bundle with core business iOS apps only available on iDevices 33
  • 34. © 2014 VisionMobile Example: Google Android ecosystem core business – online advertising 34 step how Google implements it identify complements in new market mobile operating system boost demand for complements commoditise smartphones, create developer ecosystem and app store bundle with core business Android OEMs must preload Google services
  • 35. © 2014 VisionMobile Example: Amazon Fire tablets and phones core business - ecommerce 35 step how Amazon implements it identify complements in new market tablets, smartphones boost demand for complements sell devices at cost to acquire users bundle with core business Bundle devices with immersive shopping experience
  • 36. © 2014 VisionMobile Example: WeChat messaging app core business - ecommerce 36 step how WeChat implements it identify complements in new market Messaging apps Taxi services boost demand for complements Free messaging, 3rd party ecosystem, incentives bundle with core business Messaging is bundled with Tencent ecommerce services
  • 37. © 2014 VisionMobile And now fast forward into the future..
  • 38. Audience question Which industry is most likely to be disrupted next by digital business models? - Automotive - Travel - Healthcare - Energy - Logistics - Fashion - Construction © 2014 VisionMobile 38
  • 39. If you could speak to 10,000 developers What would you ask them? © 2014 VisionMobile
  • 40. Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. © 2014 VisionMobile Andreas Constantinou CEO Principal Analyst andreas@visionmobile.com +44 20 8123 1738 Track developer trends Talk to us Work With us If you could speak to 10,000 app developers, what would you ask them?