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Decision
Modeling for
Decision Led
AnalyticsJamesTaylor
CEO
Your Presenter – James Taylor
CEO of Decision Management Solutions
We work with clients to improve their
business by applying analytic technology
to automate & improve decisions
I have spent the last 12 years
championing Decision Management and
developing Decision Management Systems
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Decision-Led Analytics
Clearly communicate analytic
requirements
Shared understanding between
team members
Define a business case,
deployment and success measures
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
The Analytics Capability
Landscape
Analytic Capabilities Landscape
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
A New Approach
Decision-led
Role-centric
Style-based
Volume
Once All the time
Repeatability
Unique Consistent
Latency
Immediate Delayed
Complexity
Low High
4 Key Decision Characteristics
Volume
How often must we make
this decision?
Repeatability
How different is making the
decision each time?
Latency
How long do we have to
make a decision
Complexity
How many factors must be
considered in the decision
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
4 Key Analytic Roles
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Business Decision-Maker Business Analyst
Analytic ProfessionalIT Data Professional
Styles of Analytic Capability
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Explorer or
Settler
Visual or
Numeric
DIY or
Factory-Made
Decision-Led
Business Needs for Analytics
Reporting
Monitoring
Deciding
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
The Focus Shifts to Decision-Making
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Deciding
Manual or automated
Select from alternatives
Based on information and analysis
Take action as a result
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Decision Modeling
Finding Decisions
• Knowing what a business user will do
with information points at decisions
Ask “So
what?”
• Potential options available for a choice
identify possible decisions
Identify
Actions
• Places where the branching to one
path or another is significant
Business
Processes
• Analytics are often powerful when
used to differentiate treatmentAsk “Why?”
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Best Decisions To Focus On
Action oriented decisions
Repeatable decisions
Data rich, non trivial decisions
With a measurable business impact
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Map Decisions Back To Metrics
Metrics impacted by improvement in decision
Customer
Churn
Service
Calls
Losses Retention
Budget
…
What retention offer
should be made? ↑ ↑ ↓ ?
What initial price should
be offered? ↑ ↑
Should an intervention
call be made? ↓ ↓
…
?
…
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Describe Decisions
Information
• What is needed?
• Where does it come
from?
Knowledge
• How to make it
• How to improve it
Precision
• Exactly how?
• Specificity without
technical details
Context
• Application
• Organization
• Business Goals
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Decision Modeling and Notation (DMN)
“… provide a common notation that is readily
understandable by all business users... DMN creates a
standardized bridge for the gap between the business
decision design and decision implementation.”
Use Cases
Modeling Human Decision-making
Modeling Requirements for automated Decision-making
Implementing automated Decision-making
OMG Specification – a peer to BPMN
Decision Management Solutions, IBM, Oracle,TIBCO,
FICO, EscapeVelocity, KUL, Model Systems, KPI,
Visumpoint
Approved. Finalization expected Q1 2015
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Decision Requirements Diagram
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Information Knowledge
Decision
Precise
Definition
Define Decisions
Define Decisions with
A question
Possible answers
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Q: Which marketing offer should be
presented to this customer
during this interaction?
A: Any current, available marketing
offer in the database
Decisions Require Information
What Information is needed?
Where does it come from?
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Decisions Require Knowledge
How to make this decision
What constrains it?
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Decisions Require Decisions
Understand Decisions by modeling the other
decisions that must be made first
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
A Decision Requirements Diagram
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Top Level
Decision
Input Data
Knowledge
Sources
Additional
Precision
Gaps
Specificity
Additional
Requirements
Find Analytic
Opportunities
If Only…
Ask If Only…
If only we knew if this customer is unhappy
If only we knew if this piece of equipment was going to
fail soon
If only we knew where we were most likely to get a
delivery this afternoon
If only we knew if this provider was ripping us off
…
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
If Only We Knew What They’d Accept
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
If Only We Knew Who Was Loyal
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Link Analytics Explicitly To Action
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Identify decision to be
improved
Uses a non-technical
notation
Model can be built by
business analysts
What Information Gives Us The Insight?
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
Data
Warehouse
What information don’t we store?
What information can’t we integrate?
What information must now be analyzed?
Decision Modeling for Decision-Led Analytics
Decision modeling communicates
analytic requirements
Decision models are easily shared
between team members
Decision modeling defines the
business case, deployment and
success measures
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
More Resources
White papers
Putting Analytics to Work in Operations
Decision Modeling with DMN
http://decisionmanagementsolutions.com/white-papers
Events
Decision Modeling for Predictive Analytic
Projects PAW San Francisco
http://predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2015/
Books
Decision Management Systems
The MicroGuide to BPMN and DMN
http://decisionmanagementsolutions.com/books
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
DecisionsFirst Modeler
A collaborative decision modeling software that conforms
to the new Decision Model and Notation (DMN) standard.
©2015 Decision Management Solutions
DecisionsFirst Modeler is available as a free BasicVersion (SaaS) and a paid
Enterprise Edition (SaaS or on-premise). Sign up at www.decisionsfirst.com
Thank you!
James Taylor, CEO
james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com

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Decision modeling for decision led analytics

  • 2. Your Presenter – James Taylor CEO of Decision Management Solutions We work with clients to improve their business by applying analytic technology to automate & improve decisions I have spent the last 12 years championing Decision Management and developing Decision Management Systems ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 3. Decision-Led Analytics Clearly communicate analytic requirements Shared understanding between team members Define a business case, deployment and success measures ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 5. Analytic Capabilities Landscape ©2015 Decision Management Solutions A New Approach Decision-led Role-centric Style-based
  • 6. Volume Once All the time Repeatability Unique Consistent Latency Immediate Delayed Complexity Low High 4 Key Decision Characteristics Volume How often must we make this decision? Repeatability How different is making the decision each time? Latency How long do we have to make a decision Complexity How many factors must be considered in the decision ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 7. 4 Key Analytic Roles ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Business Decision-Maker Business Analyst Analytic ProfessionalIT Data Professional
  • 8. Styles of Analytic Capability ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Explorer or Settler Visual or Numeric DIY or Factory-Made
  • 10. Business Needs for Analytics Reporting Monitoring Deciding ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 11. The Focus Shifts to Decision-Making ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 12. Deciding Manual or automated Select from alternatives Based on information and analysis Take action as a result ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 14. Finding Decisions • Knowing what a business user will do with information points at decisions Ask “So what?” • Potential options available for a choice identify possible decisions Identify Actions • Places where the branching to one path or another is significant Business Processes • Analytics are often powerful when used to differentiate treatmentAsk “Why?” ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 15. Best Decisions To Focus On Action oriented decisions Repeatable decisions Data rich, non trivial decisions With a measurable business impact ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 16. Map Decisions Back To Metrics Metrics impacted by improvement in decision Customer Churn Service Calls Losses Retention Budget … What retention offer should be made? ↑ ↑ ↓ ? What initial price should be offered? ↑ ↑ Should an intervention call be made? ↓ ↓ … ? … ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 17. Describe Decisions Information • What is needed? • Where does it come from? Knowledge • How to make it • How to improve it Precision • Exactly how? • Specificity without technical details Context • Application • Organization • Business Goals ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 18. Decision Modeling and Notation (DMN) “… provide a common notation that is readily understandable by all business users... DMN creates a standardized bridge for the gap between the business decision design and decision implementation.” Use Cases Modeling Human Decision-making Modeling Requirements for automated Decision-making Implementing automated Decision-making OMG Specification – a peer to BPMN Decision Management Solutions, IBM, Oracle,TIBCO, FICO, EscapeVelocity, KUL, Model Systems, KPI, Visumpoint Approved. Finalization expected Q1 2015 ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 19. Decision Requirements Diagram ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Information Knowledge Decision Precise Definition
  • 20. Define Decisions Define Decisions with A question Possible answers ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Q: Which marketing offer should be presented to this customer during this interaction? A: Any current, available marketing offer in the database
  • 21. Decisions Require Information What Information is needed? Where does it come from? ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 22. Decisions Require Knowledge How to make this decision What constrains it? ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 23. Decisions Require Decisions Understand Decisions by modeling the other decisions that must be made first ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 24. A Decision Requirements Diagram ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Top Level Decision Input Data Knowledge Sources Additional Precision Gaps Specificity Additional Requirements
  • 26. If Only… Ask If Only… If only we knew if this customer is unhappy If only we knew if this piece of equipment was going to fail soon If only we knew where we were most likely to get a delivery this afternoon If only we knew if this provider was ripping us off … ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 27. If Only We Knew What They’d Accept ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 28. If Only We Knew Who Was Loyal ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 29. Link Analytics Explicitly To Action ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Identify decision to be improved Uses a non-technical notation Model can be built by business analysts
  • 30. What Information Gives Us The Insight? ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Data Warehouse What information don’t we store? What information can’t we integrate? What information must now be analyzed?
  • 31. Decision Modeling for Decision-Led Analytics Decision modeling communicates analytic requirements Decision models are easily shared between team members Decision modeling defines the business case, deployment and success measures ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 32. More Resources White papers Putting Analytics to Work in Operations Decision Modeling with DMN http://decisionmanagementsolutions.com/white-papers Events Decision Modeling for Predictive Analytic Projects PAW San Francisco http://predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2015/ Books Decision Management Systems The MicroGuide to BPMN and DMN http://decisionmanagementsolutions.com/books ©2015 Decision Management Solutions
  • 33. DecisionsFirst Modeler A collaborative decision modeling software that conforms to the new Decision Model and Notation (DMN) standard. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions DecisionsFirst Modeler is available as a free BasicVersion (SaaS) and a paid Enterprise Edition (SaaS or on-premise). Sign up at www.decisionsfirst.com
  • 34. Thank you! James Taylor, CEO james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com