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Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Gerhard Botha
Head of Group Architecture
Aug 2018
Debunking Technology Trend Myths
2
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Contents
• Disclaimer
• Technology Trends & Myths
• Last Thoughts On The Future
• Questions
3
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Disclaimer
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. “
-Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet
"Wall Street indices predicted nine out of the last five recessions ! "
-Paul A. Samuelson in Newsweek, Science and Stocks, 19 Sep. 1966.
“If you can predict more than 5 years into the future, you have the wrong job and you are
not being paid enough.”
-G. Botha
"My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there. "
-C.F. Kettering
4
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
3D Printing (at Home)
https://commons.wikimedia.org/
5
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
3D Printing Myths
3D Printing is slow
Printing anything on a 3D printer is very slow
3D Printing is expensive
It cost too much to practically print anything on a 3D printer
3D Printing is only for plastics
You can only use cheap plastics to print
3D Printing is for everything
Why don’t we just 3D print everything?
3D Printing will replace manufacturing
Everyone will print everything they need in their own home.
$$$
6
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Cloud
7
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Cloud Myths
Cloud provides economies of scale
Companies should migrate to cloud at scale in order to obtain maximum
economies of scale.
Everything will move to the cloud
All IT systems will eventually move to the cloud.
Cloud is cheaper
The cloud is cheaper than running applications on-premises.
Cloud is more, or less, secure
The cloud is not as secure and you should not put sensitive data there.
The cloud is more secure than our internal networks.
Cloud is faster and more agile
Cloud enables speed and agility and lets you deliver faster.
8
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Augmented and Virtual Reality
www.magicleap.com
www.cisco.com
www.engadget.com
www.sony.com
9
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
AR/VR Myths
“Ready Player One”
We are all going to end up as zombies in a virtual world
It has limited practical uses
It is just a gimmick and we will get past this.
It will make you sick
The cloud is cheaper than running applications on-premises.
We will become even more anti-social
Look at how anti-social we have become with just phones
AR/VR is easy to do
You just buy the goggles and off you go.
10
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Robotic Assistants
www.pixabay.comwww.globalconstructionreview.com
11
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Robotics Myths
Robots reduce jobs
Robots are taking our jobs
Robots will look like us
Robots will look like humans with a head, hands and feet
The terminator is coming
Robots will take over the world
Robots have feelings
Robots feel bad when we are rude to them
Robots will communicate like us
We will be able to understand what robots say to each other
12
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Artificial Intelligence
2018: 2 year old
2030: 16 year old
2037: University graduate
13
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Robotics Myths
AI is magic
AI works like magic. You just give it data and it knows stuff
AI is evil
AI will try to take over the world
AI will never be able to control humans
Robots will take over the world
Super intelligence is coming
AI will be smarter than us
AI is safe
We will be able to understand what robots say to each other
14
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Last Thoughts on the Future
www.wikipedia.com
15
Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol
Thank you
Questions?

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Debunking Technology Trend Myths

  • 1. Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Gerhard Botha Head of Group Architecture Aug 2018 Debunking Technology Trend Myths
  • 2. 2 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Contents • Disclaimer • Technology Trends & Myths • Last Thoughts On The Future • Questions
  • 3. 3 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Disclaimer "Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. “ -Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet "Wall Street indices predicted nine out of the last five recessions ! " -Paul A. Samuelson in Newsweek, Science and Stocks, 19 Sep. 1966. “If you can predict more than 5 years into the future, you have the wrong job and you are not being paid enough.” -G. Botha "My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there. " -C.F. Kettering
  • 4. 4 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol 3D Printing (at Home) https://commons.wikimedia.org/
  • 5. 5 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol 3D Printing Myths 3D Printing is slow Printing anything on a 3D printer is very slow 3D Printing is expensive It cost too much to practically print anything on a 3D printer 3D Printing is only for plastics You can only use cheap plastics to print 3D Printing is for everything Why don’t we just 3D print everything? 3D Printing will replace manufacturing Everyone will print everything they need in their own home. $$$
  • 6. 6 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Cloud
  • 7. 7 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Cloud Myths Cloud provides economies of scale Companies should migrate to cloud at scale in order to obtain maximum economies of scale. Everything will move to the cloud All IT systems will eventually move to the cloud. Cloud is cheaper The cloud is cheaper than running applications on-premises. Cloud is more, or less, secure The cloud is not as secure and you should not put sensitive data there. The cloud is more secure than our internal networks. Cloud is faster and more agile Cloud enables speed and agility and lets you deliver faster.
  • 8. 8 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Augmented and Virtual Reality www.magicleap.com www.cisco.com www.engadget.com www.sony.com
  • 9. 9 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol AR/VR Myths “Ready Player One” We are all going to end up as zombies in a virtual world It has limited practical uses It is just a gimmick and we will get past this. It will make you sick The cloud is cheaper than running applications on-premises. We will become even more anti-social Look at how anti-social we have become with just phones AR/VR is easy to do You just buy the goggles and off you go.
  • 10. 10 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Robotic Assistants www.pixabay.comwww.globalconstructionreview.com
  • 11. 11 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Robotics Myths Robots reduce jobs Robots are taking our jobs Robots will look like us Robots will look like humans with a head, hands and feet The terminator is coming Robots will take over the world Robots have feelings Robots feel bad when we are rude to them Robots will communicate like us We will be able to understand what robots say to each other
  • 12. 12 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Artificial Intelligence 2018: 2 year old 2030: 16 year old 2037: University graduate
  • 13. 13 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Robotics Myths AI is magic AI works like magic. You just give it data and it knows stuff AI is evil AI will try to take over the world AI will never be able to control humans Robots will take over the world Super intelligence is coming AI will be smarter than us AI is safe We will be able to understand what robots say to each other
  • 14. 14 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Last Thoughts on the Future www.wikipedia.com
  • 15. 15 Copyright ©, 2018, Sasol Thank you Questions?