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How	
  Turkey	
  is	
  Perceived	
  in	
  Armenia:	
  
 Some	
  findings	
  from	
  the	
  Caucasus	
  
          Barometer	
  Surveys            	
  
                          	
  
                                	
  
                     June	
  4th,	
  2012  	
  
                        Yerevan       	
  
                    heghine@crrc.am
Outline	
  
•  Armenia-­‐Turkey:	
  General	
  Overview	
  and	
  
   Economic	
  relaDons	
  
•  Some	
  findings	
  from	
  the	
  CB	
  surveys:	
  
   –  AKtudes	
  towards	
  Armenia-­‐Turkey	
  relaDons	
  
   –  AKtudes	
  in	
  Armenia	
  and	
  Azerbaijan	
  towards	
  
      soluDon	
  of	
  NK	
  conflict	
  
•  Some	
  findings	
  from	
  the	
  TESEV	
  survey	
  
Armenia	
  and	
  Turkey	
  Comparison	
  
                           Armenia	
                                                               Turkey
                                                                                                        	
  
•  Area	
  29,743	
  sq	
  km	
                                   •  Area	
  780,580sq	
  km	
  
•  PopulaDon	
  3.2	
  mln*	
                                     •  PopulaDon	
  74.7	
  mln*	
  
                                                                  	
  
•  GDP(2011)	
  10.1	
  bln	
                                     •  GDP(2011)	
  US$	
  772.3	
  
                                                                       billion	
  
•  GDP	
  p/c	
  	
  3,100	
  US$	
                               •  GDP	
  p/c	
  (2011)	
  US$	
  
                                                                       10,444	
  
                                                                  	
  
*As	
  of	
  Oct	
  2011	
  vs.	
  3.5	
  mln	
  in	
  1914	
     *	
  As	
  of	
  Jan	
  2012	
  vs.	
  13.6mln	
  in	
  1927	
  


	
                                                                	
  
Current	
  Access	
  to	
  Turkey	
  from	
  Armenia	
  




Source: Beilock, et al, 2007, AJPP
Foreign	
  Trade	
  (Exp	
  &	
  Imp)	
  Between	
  Turkey	
  and	
  South	
  
 Caucasus	
  Countries:	
  Armenia	
  trading	
  trough	
  Georgia?        	
  
1400                                                                                                            60.4


1200

                     Armenia          Georgia           Azerbaijan                                              572
                                                                                                        40.2
1000

                                                                                                37.9
 800                                                                                                    503

                                                45.9    59.8                                    429
                                                                         42
 600                                                                            34.8
                                                                                        39.6
                                                240     255     41.3
                                       12.3                             287
                                                                                271     241
 400                                                            207
                               4.9      142

                                118
 200                     93
        18      57

   0
       1992    1993     1994   1995    1996     1997   1998    1999     2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005


 *Calculations were made to comment the paper “Exploring Complementarities …” presented by Prof. Sema Kalaycioglu in
 AIPRG conference in January 2007.
Official	
  StaDsDcs	
  on	
  Trade:	
  Share	
  of	
  Turkey	
  
     in	
  Armenia’s	
  Export	
  and	
  Import	
  (%	
  of	
  total)	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     6.3	
  
                                             6.2	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                       6.1	
  


                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5.3	
  
                                                            5	
                                                       Imports	
                          Exports	
  

                                                                              4.5	
  
                              4.3	
                                                                                                                                      4.4	
  

                                                                                                            3.9	
                                                                       4.0	
  
                                                                                             3.8	
  

                                                                                                                                                          3.3	
  
                                   3.0	
  




                                                                                                                           2.9	
          2.8	
  
                    2.0	
  




                                                  1.3	
  
     0.9	
  




               0.7	
  
                                                                                   0.5	
  
                                                                    0.4	
  




                                                                                                  0.3	
  


                                                                                                                 0.3	
  




                                                                                                                                               0.3	
  


                                                                                                                                                               0.3	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                             0.3	
  
                                                                                                                                                                              0.2	
  
                                                                                                                                0.2	
  


0.3	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.2	
  


                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.2	
  


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.1	
  
1995	
         1996	
         1997	
         1998	
         1999	
            2000	
         2001	
         2002	
          2003	
        2004	
          2005	
         2006	
         2007	
         2008	
         2009	
         2010	
  

     Source:	
  NSS	
  of	
  RA	
  (hkp://armstat.am/file/arDcle/l_2nish_10_2.pdf)	
  
Caucasus	
  Barometer:	
  Methodology	
  
•  Almost	
  2,000	
  people	
  in	
  Armenia,	
  Georgia	
  and	
  
   Azerbaijan	
  (per	
  country)	
  starDng	
  from	
  2004	
  
•  RepresentaDve	
  of	
  total	
  adult	
  (18+)	
  populaDon	
  
•  ProporDonate	
  representaDon	
  of	
  demographic	
  and	
  
    geographic	
  groups	
  
•  MulD-­‐stage	
  cluster	
  sampling	
  
•  Household	
  selecDon:	
  Random	
  walk	
  method	
  
•  Respondent	
  selecDon:	
  Kish	
  table	
  
•  Face-­‐to-­‐face	
  interviews	
  in	
  local	
  languages	
  
Caucasus	
  Barometer	
  2006:	
  APtudes	
  on	
  cooperation	
  in	
  poliQcal	
  
                  sphere	
  with	
  Turkey	
  (%	
  of	
  total)
                                                               	
  

                                                              35.1    DK & Refuse
       SC                         15.6
                                  15.9

                                                                      Fully supportive
                                                      30.0
  Georgia                                19.3
                                             21.9
                                                                      Rather supportive

                                                                     40.7
Azerbaijan                 10.9                                       Neutral
                         9.5



                                                       30.4           Rather oppose
  Armenia                                           28.5
                                            21.7

                                                                      Fully oppose
Caucasus	
  Barometer	
  2006:	
  APtudes	
  on	
  cooperation	
  in	
  
                    economic	
  sphere	
  with	
  Turkey  	
  
                                                                          DK &
                                                       43.5               Refuse
       SC                      20.2
                           16.2
                                                                          Fully
                                                                          supportive
                                                33.5
  Georgia                      20.6
                              19.5                                        Rather
                                                                          supportive


                                                                          Neutral
                                                              59.4
Azerbaijan                   19.1
                    10.9
                                                                          Rather
                                                                          oppose
                                         28.6
  Armenia                         24.1
                                21.7                                      Fully
                                                                          oppose
CB	
  2009-­‐2010:	
  APtudes	
  towards	
  doing	
  business	
  with	
  Turks	
  
2009-­‐2010	
  (%	
  of	
  total)	
  
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
Would	
  you	
  approve	
  or	
  disapprove	
  doing	
  business	
  with...	
  
                                                   (%,	
  CB	
  2011,	
  weighted)	
  
                                                                  Approve	
                  Disapprove	
  

    Armenians	
                                                                                                                                                          93	
  
                           5	
  

       Russians	
                                                                                                                                               86	
  
                                    11	
  

    Americans	
                                                                                                                                        73	
  
                                                22	
  

         	
  English	
                                                                                                                              72	
  
                                                  24	
  

          Greeks	
                                                                                                                         68	
  
                                                         26	
  

     Georgians	
                                                                                                                      66	
  
                                                                  30	
  

             Jews	
                                                                                                      60	
  
                                                                           34	
  

Kurds,	
  Yezidis	
                                                                                           56	
  
                                                                                    40	
  

            Turks	
                                                                 40	
  
                                                                                                                57	
  

  Azerbaijanis	
                                                      32	
  
                                                                                                                                  64	
  
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
CB	
  2010:	
  PopulaQon	
  of	
  Turkey’s	
  general	
  aPtude	
  towards	
  
                       Armenians?	
  Mean	
  value	
  on	
  a	
  scale	
  from	
  1	
  (completely	
  
                     negaQve)	
  to	
  5	
  (completely	
  posiQve),	
  by	
  household	
  Income	
  

More	
  than	
  USD	
  1200	
                                                                                     2.3	
  


        USD	
  801	
  -­‐	
  1200	
                                                                                         2.6	
  


          USD	
  401	
  -­‐	
  800	
                                                                        2.2	
  


          USD	
  251	
  -­‐	
  400	
                                                       2.0	
  


          USD	
  101	
  -­‐	
  250	
                                                    1.9	
  


            USD	
  51	
  -­‐	
  100	
                                        1.8	
  


           Up	
  to	
  USD	
  50	
                                                                2.0	
  


                                   0	
                                        1.8	
  


     Country	
  Average	
                                                                  2.0	
  
CB	
  2010:	
  PopulaQon	
  of	
  Turkey’s	
  general	
  aPtude	
  towards	
  Armenians?	
  Mean	
  
     value	
  on	
  a	
  scale	
  from	
  1	
  (completely	
  negaQve)	
  to	
  5	
  (completely	
  posiQve)	
  by	
  
                                                       EducaQon	
  

             Post-­‐graduate	
  degree	
                                                                                    2.5	
  


    Completed	
  higher	
  educaQon	
                                                                             2.2	
  


    Incomplete	
  higher	
  educaQon	
                                                                       2.1	
  


  Secondary	
  technical	
  educaQon	
                                                             2.0	
  


Completed	
  secondary	
  educaQon	
                                                          1.9	
  


Incomplete	
  secondary	
  educaQon	
                                                 1.7	
  


                 Primary	
  educaQon	
                                               1.7	
  


            No	
  primary	
  educaQon	
                                             1.7	
  


                   Country	
  Average	
                                                            2.0	
  
А	
  recent	
  touchstone:   	
  
       	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  
                      	
  
 AKtudes	
  in	
  Armenia	
  and	
  Azerbaijan	
  
regarding	
  soluDon	
  of	
  NK	
  conflict	
  from	
  
   the	
  2011	
  Caucasus	
  Barometer.        	
  
                      	
  
                      	
  
Polarized	
  beliefs	
  on	
  sedlement	
  of	
  conflicts:	
  Ideas	
  for	
  sedling	
  the	
  Nagorny	
  
                     Karabakh	
  conflict	
  -­‐	
  AZERBAIJAN	
  (CB	
  2011,	
  %)	
  
                               Definitely	
  favor	
            Accept	
  under	
  certain	
  circumstances	
          Never	
  accept	
     DK	
  




               Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  in	
  Azerbaijan	
  without	
  
                                                                                                                                                     4	
   4	
  
                                     autonomy	
  



Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  with	
  a	
  high	
  degree	
  of	
  autonomy	
  
                                                                                                                 27	
                       40	
         8	
  
                       within	
  Azerbaijan	
  



Create	
  a	
  special	
  administraQve	
  region	
  that	
  will	
  be	
  jointly	
  
                                                                                         5	
                                84	
                        9	
  
                governed	
  by	
  Azerbaijan	
  and	
  Armenia	
  



       Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  as	
  an	
  independent	
  country	
                  7	
                               81	
                       8	
  




      Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  as	
  a	
  formal	
  part	
  of	
  Armenia	
                                           94	
                             4	
  
Polarized	
  beliefs	
  on	
  sedlement	
  of	
  conflicts:	
  Ideas	
  for	
  sedling	
  the	
  
                Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  conflict	
  -­‐	
  ARMENIA	
  (CB	
  2011,	
  %)	
  
                  Definitely	
  favor	
           Accept	
  under	
  certain	
  circumstances	
     Never	
  accept	
     DK	
          RA	
  


Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  as	
  a	
  formal	
  part	
  of	
  Armenia	
                                                   18	
              13	
               8	
  




Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  as	
  an	
  independent	
  country	
                                                       20	
              15	
                   9	
  




   Create	
  a	
  special	
  administraQve	
  region	
  that	
  will	
  be	
  
                                                                                 4	
                       77	
                                           17	
  
      jointly	
  governed	
  by	
  Azerbaijan	
  and	
  Armenia	
  




         Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  with	
  a	
  high	
  degree	
  of	
  
                                                                                 3	
                      77	
                                           17	
  
                   autonomy	
  within	
  Azerbaijan	
  




        Have	
  Nagorny	
  Karabakh	
  in	
  Azerbaijan	
  without	
  
                                                                                    2	
                   74	
                                           18	
  
                              autonomy	
  
Ethnic	
  intolerance:	
  Approval	
  of	
  doing	
  business	
  with…(CB-­‐2011,	
  %)	
  

                                                 Approve	
     Disapprove	
     Don't	
  know	
     Refuse	
  to	
  answer	
  


                 Azerbaijanis	
                                                                           64	
                                             3	
  
Armenia	
  




                   Georgians	
                                                                                                       30	
              4	
  



                  Armenians	
                                                          99	
                                                                  1	
  
Azerbaijan	
  




                   Georgians	
                                                                                                   37	
                        2	
  



                 Azerbaijanis	
                                                                                                           21	
     7	
  
Georgia	
  




                  Armenians	
                                                                                                      26	
            7	
  
APtudes	
  in	
  Turkey:	
  

Findings	
  from	
  a	
  survey	
  by	
  Turkish	
  
   Economic	
  and	
  Social	
  Studies	
  
       FoundaQon	
  (TESEV)	
            	
  
                         	
  
TESEV	
  Survey	
  Overview	
  
•  Survey	
  focused	
  on	
  opinions	
  on	
  various	
  Turkish	
  
   foreign	
  policy	
  issues,	
  not	
  just	
  Armenia.	
  
•  The	
  fieldwork	
  for	
  the	
  project	
  was	
  carried	
  out	
  on	
  
   6-­‐14th	
  December	
  2010.	
  
•  1906	
  households	
  were	
  successfully	
  contacted,	
  with	
  
   906	
  of	
  them	
  refusing	
  to	
  answer	
  the	
  quesDonnaire.	
  
•  	
  The	
  survey	
  has	
  a	
  +/-­‐2.54%	
  margin	
  of	
  error	
  with	
  a	
  
   confidence	
  level	
  of	
  95%.	
  
•  Link	
  to	
  report:	
  hkp://www.tesev.org.tr/Upload/PublicaDon/
   d40ab847-­‐5676-­‐4864-­‐8f99-­‐37fcb58ffc34/Foreign%20Policy%20PercepDons%20in%20Turkey_05.2011.pdf	
  
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12
Foreign	
  Policy	
  PercepDon	
  in	
  Turkey	
  |	
  KA	
  Research	
  Limited	
  |	
  December	
  2010	
  


                                           Reasons	
  for	
  supporDng	
  economic	
  rapprochement	
  with	
  Armenia	
  
         Q44a.	
  Could	
  you	
  tell	
  me	
  why	
  you	
  support	
  the	
  economic	
  rapprochement	
  between	
  Turkey	
  and	
  Armenia?	
  	
  


                                                                                            Good	
  for	
  Turkish	
  economy	
                                                                                39	
  

                                                                                                    To	
  resolve	
  the	
  conflict	
                                             17	
  

                                                       Turkey	
  and	
  Armenia	
  are	
  neighboring	
  countries	
                                                     14	
  

                                                                           Good	
  for	
  both	
  countries'	
  economies	
                              7	
  

                               People	
  living	
  in	
  Turkey	
  and	
  in	
  Armenia	
  have	
  a	
  common	
  past	
                         2	
  

                                                                  So	
  the	
  two	
  countries	
  support	
  each	
  other	
                   2	
  

                                                            Would	
  be	
  good	
  for	
  the	
  economy	
  of	
  Armenia	
                     2	
  

                                                                        Would	
  help	
  to	
  reduce	
  unemployment	
                        1	
  

                                                    Since	
  there	
  are	
  many	
  Armenians	
  living	
  in	
  Turkey	
                     1	
  

                                                                                                                                   Other	
                       9	
  

                                                                                                                       DK/Refused	
                                      14	
  

Base:	
  492	
  (Respondents	
  who	
  “strongly/somewhat	
  support”	
  economical	
  rapprochement	
  with	
  Armenia)	
  	
                                                                                                p.29	
  
Foreign	
  Policy	
  PercepDon	
  in	
  Turkey	
  |	
  KA	
  Research	
  Limited	
  |	
  December	
  2010	
  


               Reasons	
  for	
  opposing	
  economic	
  rapprochement	
  with	
  Armenia	
  

          Q43a.	
  Could	
  you	
  tell	
  me	
  why	
  you	
  do	
  not	
  support	
  the	
  economic	
  rapprochement	
  between	
  Turkey	
  and	
  
          Armenia?	
  	
  

                                                                  Armenians	
  are	
  hosQle	
  to	
  Turks	
                                                                                            21	
  
              Armenia	
  is	
  a	
  small	
  economy,	
  would	
  provide	
  no	
  benefit	
                                                                                            13	
  
                                                                                                         Past	
  betrayal	
                                                    8	
  
                                                                 Because	
  of	
  Azerbaijan	
  problem	
                                                                   8	
  
                                                                                     I	
  do	
  not	
  trust	
  Armenia	
                                           6	
  
                                                                                        Genocide	
  allegaQons	
                                            4	
  
                         I	
  do	
  not	
  like	
  Armenians,	
  I	
  do	
  not	
  want	
  any	
  kind	
  of	
                                      3	
  
                                                                                          Territorial	
  demands	
                            2	
  
                          Since	
  Armenians	
  think	
  only	
  of	
  their	
  own	
  benefits	
                                            2	
  
                                                                              Since	
  it	
  may	
  harm	
  Turkey	
                       1	
  
                                                                                           Because	
  of	
  the	
  past	
                 1	
  
                                                                                                                    Religion	
            1	
  
                                                                                                                         Other	
                                                           14	
  
                                                                                                           DK/Refused	
                                                                                20	
  

Base:	
  381	
  (Respondents	
  who	
  “strongly/somewhat	
  oppose”	
  to	
  economical	
  rapprochement	
  with	
  Armenia)	
  	
                                                                                             p.30	
  
 
    	
  
THANK	
  YOU!
            	
  
       	
  
       	
  
       	
  

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CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

  • 1. How  Turkey  is  Perceived  in  Armenia:   Some  findings  from  the  Caucasus   Barometer  Surveys       June  4th,  2012   Yerevan   heghine@crrc.am
  • 2. Outline   •  Armenia-­‐Turkey:  General  Overview  and   Economic  relaDons   •  Some  findings  from  the  CB  surveys:   –  AKtudes  towards  Armenia-­‐Turkey  relaDons   –  AKtudes  in  Armenia  and  Azerbaijan  towards   soluDon  of  NK  conflict   •  Some  findings  from  the  TESEV  survey  
  • 3. Armenia  and  Turkey  Comparison   Armenia   Turkey   •  Area  29,743  sq  km   •  Area  780,580sq  km   •  PopulaDon  3.2  mln*   •  PopulaDon  74.7  mln*     •  GDP(2011)  10.1  bln   •  GDP(2011)  US$  772.3   billion   •  GDP  p/c    3,100  US$   •  GDP  p/c  (2011)  US$   10,444     *As  of  Oct  2011  vs.  3.5  mln  in  1914   *  As  of  Jan  2012  vs.  13.6mln  in  1927      
  • 4. Current  Access  to  Turkey  from  Armenia   Source: Beilock, et al, 2007, AJPP
  • 5. Foreign  Trade  (Exp  &  Imp)  Between  Turkey  and  South   Caucasus  Countries:  Armenia  trading  trough  Georgia?   1400 60.4 1200 Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan 572 40.2 1000 37.9 800 503 45.9 59.8 429 42 600 34.8 39.6 240 255 41.3 12.3 287 271 241 400 207 4.9 142 118 200 93 18 57 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 *Calculations were made to comment the paper “Exploring Complementarities …” presented by Prof. Sema Kalaycioglu in AIPRG conference in January 2007.
  • 6. Official  StaDsDcs  on  Trade:  Share  of  Turkey   in  Armenia’s  Export  and  Import  (%  of  total)   6.3   6.2   6.1   5.3   5   Imports   Exports   4.5   4.3   4.4   3.9   4.0   3.8   3.3   3.0   2.9   2.8   2.0   1.3   0.9   0.7   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.2   0.2   0.1   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   Source:  NSS  of  RA  (hkp://armstat.am/file/arDcle/l_2nish_10_2.pdf)  
  • 7. Caucasus  Barometer:  Methodology   •  Almost  2,000  people  in  Armenia,  Georgia  and   Azerbaijan  (per  country)  starDng  from  2004   •  RepresentaDve  of  total  adult  (18+)  populaDon   •  ProporDonate  representaDon  of  demographic  and   geographic  groups   •  MulD-­‐stage  cluster  sampling   •  Household  selecDon:  Random  walk  method   •  Respondent  selecDon:  Kish  table   •  Face-­‐to-­‐face  interviews  in  local  languages  
  • 8. Caucasus  Barometer  2006:  APtudes  on  cooperation  in  poliQcal   sphere  with  Turkey  (%  of  total)   35.1 DK & Refuse SC 15.6 15.9 Fully supportive 30.0 Georgia 19.3 21.9 Rather supportive 40.7 Azerbaijan 10.9 Neutral 9.5 30.4 Rather oppose Armenia 28.5 21.7 Fully oppose
  • 9. Caucasus  Barometer  2006:  APtudes  on  cooperation  in   economic  sphere  with  Turkey   DK & 43.5 Refuse SC 20.2 16.2 Fully supportive 33.5 Georgia 20.6 19.5 Rather supportive Neutral 59.4 Azerbaijan 19.1 10.9 Rather oppose 28.6 Armenia 24.1 21.7 Fully oppose
  • 10. CB  2009-­‐2010:  APtudes  towards  doing  business  with  Turks   2009-­‐2010  (%  of  total)  
  • 12. Would  you  approve  or  disapprove  doing  business  with...   (%,  CB  2011,  weighted)   Approve   Disapprove   Armenians   93   5   Russians   86   11   Americans   73   22    English   72   24   Greeks   68   26   Georgians   66   30   Jews   60   34   Kurds,  Yezidis   56   40   Turks   40   57   Azerbaijanis   32   64  
  • 19. CB  2010:  PopulaQon  of  Turkey’s  general  aPtude  towards   Armenians?  Mean  value  on  a  scale  from  1  (completely   negaQve)  to  5  (completely  posiQve),  by  household  Income   More  than  USD  1200   2.3   USD  801  -­‐  1200   2.6   USD  401  -­‐  800   2.2   USD  251  -­‐  400   2.0   USD  101  -­‐  250   1.9   USD  51  -­‐  100   1.8   Up  to  USD  50   2.0   0   1.8   Country  Average   2.0  
  • 20. CB  2010:  PopulaQon  of  Turkey’s  general  aPtude  towards  Armenians?  Mean   value  on  a  scale  from  1  (completely  negaQve)  to  5  (completely  posiQve)  by   EducaQon   Post-­‐graduate  degree   2.5   Completed  higher  educaQon   2.2   Incomplete  higher  educaQon   2.1   Secondary  technical  educaQon   2.0   Completed  secondary  educaQon   1.9   Incomplete  secondary  educaQon   1.7   Primary  educaQon   1.7   No  primary  educaQon   1.7   Country  Average   2.0  
  • 21. А  recent  touchstone:    Nagorny  Karabakh     AKtudes  in  Armenia  and  Azerbaijan   regarding  soluDon  of  NK  conflict  from   the  2011  Caucasus  Barometer.      
  • 22. Polarized  beliefs  on  sedlement  of  conflicts:  Ideas  for  sedling  the  Nagorny   Karabakh  conflict  -­‐  AZERBAIJAN  (CB  2011,  %)   Definitely  favor   Accept  under  certain  circumstances   Never  accept   DK   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  in  Azerbaijan  without   4   4   autonomy   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  with  a  high  degree  of  autonomy   27   40   8   within  Azerbaijan   Create  a  special  administraQve  region  that  will  be  jointly   5   84   9   governed  by  Azerbaijan  and  Armenia   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  an  independent  country   7   81   8   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  a  formal  part  of  Armenia   94   4  
  • 23. Polarized  beliefs  on  sedlement  of  conflicts:  Ideas  for  sedling  the   Nagorny  Karabakh  conflict  -­‐  ARMENIA  (CB  2011,  %)   Definitely  favor   Accept  under  certain  circumstances   Never  accept   DK   RA   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  a  formal  part  of  Armenia   18   13   8   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  an  independent  country   20   15   9   Create  a  special  administraQve  region  that  will  be   4   77   17   jointly  governed  by  Azerbaijan  and  Armenia   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  with  a  high  degree  of   3   77   17   autonomy  within  Azerbaijan   Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  in  Azerbaijan  without   2   74   18   autonomy  
  • 24. Ethnic  intolerance:  Approval  of  doing  business  with…(CB-­‐2011,  %)   Approve   Disapprove   Don't  know   Refuse  to  answer   Azerbaijanis   64   3   Armenia   Georgians   30   4   Armenians   99   1   Azerbaijan   Georgians   37   2   Azerbaijanis   21   7   Georgia   Armenians   26   7  
  • 25. APtudes  in  Turkey:   Findings  from  a  survey  by  Turkish   Economic  and  Social  Studies   FoundaQon  (TESEV)      
  • 26. TESEV  Survey  Overview   •  Survey  focused  on  opinions  on  various  Turkish   foreign  policy  issues,  not  just  Armenia.   •  The  fieldwork  for  the  project  was  carried  out  on   6-­‐14th  December  2010.   •  1906  households  were  successfully  contacted,  with   906  of  them  refusing  to  answer  the  quesDonnaire.   •   The  survey  has  a  +/-­‐2.54%  margin  of  error  with  a   confidence  level  of  95%.   •  Link  to  report:  hkp://www.tesev.org.tr/Upload/PublicaDon/ d40ab847-­‐5676-­‐4864-­‐8f99-­‐37fcb58ffc34/Foreign%20Policy%20PercepDons%20in%20Turkey_05.2011.pdf  
  • 29. Foreign  Policy  PercepDon  in  Turkey  |  KA  Research  Limited  |  December  2010   Reasons  for  supporDng  economic  rapprochement  with  Armenia   Q44a.  Could  you  tell  me  why  you  support  the  economic  rapprochement  between  Turkey  and  Armenia?     Good  for  Turkish  economy   39   To  resolve  the  conflict   17   Turkey  and  Armenia  are  neighboring  countries   14   Good  for  both  countries'  economies   7   People  living  in  Turkey  and  in  Armenia  have  a  common  past   2   So  the  two  countries  support  each  other   2   Would  be  good  for  the  economy  of  Armenia   2   Would  help  to  reduce  unemployment   1   Since  there  are  many  Armenians  living  in  Turkey   1   Other   9   DK/Refused   14   Base:  492  (Respondents  who  “strongly/somewhat  support”  economical  rapprochement  with  Armenia)     p.29  
  • 30. Foreign  Policy  PercepDon  in  Turkey  |  KA  Research  Limited  |  December  2010   Reasons  for  opposing  economic  rapprochement  with  Armenia   Q43a.  Could  you  tell  me  why  you  do  not  support  the  economic  rapprochement  between  Turkey  and   Armenia?     Armenians  are  hosQle  to  Turks   21   Armenia  is  a  small  economy,  would  provide  no  benefit   13   Past  betrayal   8   Because  of  Azerbaijan  problem   8   I  do  not  trust  Armenia   6   Genocide  allegaQons   4   I  do  not  like  Armenians,  I  do  not  want  any  kind  of   3   Territorial  demands   2   Since  Armenians  think  only  of  their  own  benefits   2   Since  it  may  harm  Turkey   1   Because  of  the  past   1   Religion   1   Other   14   DK/Refused   20   Base:  381  (Respondents  who  “strongly/somewhat  oppose”  to  economical  rapprochement  with  Armenia)     p.30  
  • 31.     THANK  YOU!