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Covid-19 and the automotive sector
in CEE economies
https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/
16 December 2020
Outline of the presentation
2
 The automotive industry in CEE countries
Outline of the presentation
3
 The automotive industry in CEE countries
 Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the automotive
sector in CEE countries and medium-term
prospects for car sales
Outline of the presentation
4
 The automotive industry in CEE countries
 Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the automotive
sector in CEE countries and medium-term
prospects for car sales
 Risks of global value chains
Outline of the presentation
5
 The automotive industry in CEE countries
 Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the automotive
sector in CEE countries and medium-term
prospects for car sales
 Risks of global value chains
 Policy priorities
The automotive industry plays an
important role in CEE economies
6
Note: The blue bar represents the value added of the domestic motor vehicle industry to any final destination, while the grey bar represents the value added of domestic non-motor vehicle
industries meeting final demand for motor vehicles, both domestic and foreign.
Source: OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database, 2018, “Origin of Value Added in Final Demand”.
The pandemic hit the sector hard,
but the recovery was fast
7
Note: CEEC include the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic and Romania. Data refer to the Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry (i.e. category 29 in the ISIC Rev 4
classification), except for Slovak Republic (Manufacture of transport equipment industry i.e., categories 29 and 30).
Source: Eurostat; National Bank of Slovakia.
Some countries were more
affected than others
8
Note: The Figure shows the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6 tonnes) in 2020 (until September), compared to 2019
production. The EU aggregate take also into account the United Kingdom.
Source: OECD calculations based on ACEA.
Car demand has lost momentum
9
Note: The Figure shows averages of the interest over time on car models produced in each country/region (from Google Trends). The interest over time represents the number of worldwide
searches for each car model produced in the country/region, relative to the highest number of researches recorded over the period from 1st January 2019 to 29th November 2020. This indicator
varies between zero (no or limited number of searches) and 100 (peak of popularity).
Source: OECD calculations based on Google Trends.
Car demand will likely remain low
10
 Car sales move in line with GDP growth
 We expect rather slow economic recovery in 2021-
22
 Prospects in the region depends on developments in
main trading partners
 Car sales might remain below pre crisis level in
2021 in Europe and in Germany
 Increasing demand for small and/or cheaper
cars?
• During downturns consumers tend to turn to smaller
cars
• On average, car production in the CEE region has a
focus on mass market segment.
A different impact across market
segments?
11
 Increasing demand for small and/or cheaper
cars?
• During downturns consumers tend to turn to smaller
cars
• On average, car production in the CEE region has a
focus on mass market segment.
 Increasing demand for electric cars
A different impact across market
segments?
12
Demand for electric cars has
increased
13
Note: The alternative cars category refers to vehicles principally designed for the transport of less than 10 persons, with both spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine and
electric motor; with both diesel engine and electric motor; and with only electric motor as motors for propulsion.
Source: OECD calculations based on ACEA and Eurostat International Trade database.
 Fragmented production implies large exposure
to shocks, but supply chains have been resilient
so far.
 Low car demand can trigger disruptions.
 Diversifying suppliers is complicated and costly.
 Shortening the supply chains?
New risks to the supply chain?
14
 Address skill shortages
 Provide liquidity support to viable firms
 Improve access to quality infrastructure (digital)
 Support domestic firms’ capacity to liaise with
MNE
Policy priorities
15
 The fast recovery might be short-lived due to low
demand from Europe.
 Prospects in the CEE automotive sectors mainly
depend on foreign demand developments.
 Supply chains have been resilient so far, but the
risk of bankruptcy-related disruptions has
increased
 Low profitability can undermine needed
investment.
Main findings
16
 Are CEE countries well placed to benefit from
structural transformation of the automotive
sector?
• Alternative power trains
• Digital transformation
 How will the pandemic affect their attractiveness
for investment?
• Shortening of GVCs (from Asia to Europe)
• Reshoring of high value-added activities
Questions for discussion
17
Thank you for your attention
https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/

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Covid-19 and the automotive sector in CEE economies

  • 1. Covid-19 and the automotive sector in CEE economies https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/ 16 December 2020
  • 2. Outline of the presentation 2  The automotive industry in CEE countries
  • 3. Outline of the presentation 3  The automotive industry in CEE countries  Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the automotive sector in CEE countries and medium-term prospects for car sales
  • 4. Outline of the presentation 4  The automotive industry in CEE countries  Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the automotive sector in CEE countries and medium-term prospects for car sales  Risks of global value chains
  • 5. Outline of the presentation 5  The automotive industry in CEE countries  Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the automotive sector in CEE countries and medium-term prospects for car sales  Risks of global value chains  Policy priorities
  • 6. The automotive industry plays an important role in CEE economies 6 Note: The blue bar represents the value added of the domestic motor vehicle industry to any final destination, while the grey bar represents the value added of domestic non-motor vehicle industries meeting final demand for motor vehicles, both domestic and foreign. Source: OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database, 2018, “Origin of Value Added in Final Demand”.
  • 7. The pandemic hit the sector hard, but the recovery was fast 7 Note: CEEC include the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic and Romania. Data refer to the Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry (i.e. category 29 in the ISIC Rev 4 classification), except for Slovak Republic (Manufacture of transport equipment industry i.e., categories 29 and 30). Source: Eurostat; National Bank of Slovakia.
  • 8. Some countries were more affected than others 8 Note: The Figure shows the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6 tonnes) in 2020 (until September), compared to 2019 production. The EU aggregate take also into account the United Kingdom. Source: OECD calculations based on ACEA.
  • 9. Car demand has lost momentum 9 Note: The Figure shows averages of the interest over time on car models produced in each country/region (from Google Trends). The interest over time represents the number of worldwide searches for each car model produced in the country/region, relative to the highest number of researches recorded over the period from 1st January 2019 to 29th November 2020. This indicator varies between zero (no or limited number of searches) and 100 (peak of popularity). Source: OECD calculations based on Google Trends.
  • 10. Car demand will likely remain low 10  Car sales move in line with GDP growth  We expect rather slow economic recovery in 2021- 22  Prospects in the region depends on developments in main trading partners  Car sales might remain below pre crisis level in 2021 in Europe and in Germany
  • 11.  Increasing demand for small and/or cheaper cars? • During downturns consumers tend to turn to smaller cars • On average, car production in the CEE region has a focus on mass market segment. A different impact across market segments? 11
  • 12.  Increasing demand for small and/or cheaper cars? • During downturns consumers tend to turn to smaller cars • On average, car production in the CEE region has a focus on mass market segment.  Increasing demand for electric cars A different impact across market segments? 12
  • 13. Demand for electric cars has increased 13 Note: The alternative cars category refers to vehicles principally designed for the transport of less than 10 persons, with both spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine and electric motor; with both diesel engine and electric motor; and with only electric motor as motors for propulsion. Source: OECD calculations based on ACEA and Eurostat International Trade database.
  • 14.  Fragmented production implies large exposure to shocks, but supply chains have been resilient so far.  Low car demand can trigger disruptions.  Diversifying suppliers is complicated and costly.  Shortening the supply chains? New risks to the supply chain? 14
  • 15.  Address skill shortages  Provide liquidity support to viable firms  Improve access to quality infrastructure (digital)  Support domestic firms’ capacity to liaise with MNE Policy priorities 15
  • 16.  The fast recovery might be short-lived due to low demand from Europe.  Prospects in the CEE automotive sectors mainly depend on foreign demand developments.  Supply chains have been resilient so far, but the risk of bankruptcy-related disruptions has increased  Low profitability can undermine needed investment. Main findings 16
  • 17.  Are CEE countries well placed to benefit from structural transformation of the automotive sector? • Alternative power trains • Digital transformation  How will the pandemic affect their attractiveness for investment? • Shortening of GVCs (from Asia to Europe) • Reshoring of high value-added activities Questions for discussion 17
  • 18. Thank you for your attention https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/