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Marketing WearableMarketing Wearable
Computers to Consumers:Computers to Consumers:
An Examination of Early AdopterAn Examination of Early Adopter
Consumers' Feelings and AttitudesConsumers' Feelings and Attitudes
Toward Wearable ComputersToward Wearable Computers
What is a WearableWhat is a Wearable
Computer?Computer?
 a fully functional, self-powered, self-a fully functional, self-powered, self-
contained computer that is worn on thecontained computer that is worn on the
body providing access to informationbody providing access to information
and interaction with informationand interaction with information
anywhere and at anytime.anywhere and at anytime.[1][1]
[1] T. Mann Starner, S. Rhodes, B. Levine, J. Healy, J.Kirsch, D. Picard R, and Pentland, A., "Augmented Reality
through Wearable Computing. Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments," in Fundamentals of Wearable
Computing (1997).pp. 6.
Unique FeaturesUnique Features
Different from other mobile devices:Different from other mobile devices:
 Fully Functioning Computers
 Head Mounted Displays
 Always On
 Input Devices
 Power Supply
Fully Functioning ComputerFully Functioning Computer
 Can offer as much computing power asCan offer as much computing power as
a desktop computera desktop computer
Head MountedHead Mounted
DisplaysDisplays
 2 major optical designs2 major optical designs
 2 types of functionality2 types of functionality
 OpticalOptical
 VideoVideo
““Always-On” ComputingAlways-On” Computing
 Computing is not the main taskComputing is not the main task
 Either enhances or supports the user’sEither enhances or supports the user’s
interaction with the environment byinteraction with the environment by
providing additional informationproviding additional information
Input DevicesInput Devices
 Body-mounted keyboardsBody-mounted keyboards
 Speech recognition softwareSpeech recognition software
 Hand-held keyboards (or touch screens)Hand-held keyboards (or touch screens)
 Optical miceOptical mice
 Chording devices
Chording Device: “Twiddler”
Power SupplyPower Supply
 Due to always on functionality,Due to always on functionality,
wearable computers have more powerwearable computers have more power
demands than other mobile devices.demands than other mobile devices.
 Suggestion for increased battery lifeSuggestion for increased battery life
include:include:
 Self-generated power through shoe insertsSelf-generated power through shoe inserts
 Synthetic fibers that generate power whenSynthetic fibers that generate power when
exposed to lightexposed to light
Demo of the PomaDemo of the Poma
History of WearableHistory of Wearable
ComputingComputing
 MIT Media Lab’s Wearable ComputingMIT Media Lab’s Wearable Computing
GroupGroup
 Inventors:Inventors:
Steven Mann Thad Starner
Wearable Computing IndustryWearable Computing Industry
 Used for defense, intelligence,Used for defense, intelligence,
commercial and retail applications.commercial and retail applications.
 Recently entered consumer marketRecently entered consumer market
 Xybernaut Corporation - MannXybernaut Corporation - Mann
 Charmed Technologies - StarnerCharmed Technologies - Starner
Consumer ProductsConsumer Products
 Xybernaut's Poma & Charmed Technology’s CharmItXybernaut's Poma & Charmed Technology’s CharmIt
CharmIt
Poma
Wearable ComputingWearable Computing
ApplicationsApplications
 Sharing Experiences Via VideoSharing Experiences Via Video
 Remembrance ApplicationsRemembrance Applications
 Smart FabricsSmart Fabrics
 GPS Driven InformationGPS Driven Information
 NanoTechnologyNanoTechnology
Predicting:Predicting:
Product Adoption,Product Adoption,
Market Impact &Market Impact &
Consumer BehaviorConsumer Behavior
Product AdoptionProduct Adoption
 Everett RogersEverett Rogers
 Product Adoption TheoryProduct Adoption Theory
 Categories of AdoptersCategories of Adopters
 Factors that Impact AdoptionFactors that Impact Adoption
 Geoffrey MooreGeoffrey Moore
 The “Chasm” between early adopters andThe “Chasm” between early adopters and
mainstream marketmainstream market
Adoption Diffusion Curve
Moore’s ChasmMoore’s Chasm
Purchasing DecisionPurchasing Decision
 Based on Rogers, five factors that impactBased on Rogers, five factors that impact
adoption:adoption:
1.1. Perceived attributes of the innovationPerceived attributes of the innovation
2.2. Number of people involved in the adoptionNumber of people involved in the adoption
decision (individual vs. an organization)decision (individual vs. an organization)
3.3. Communication channels used to promote theCommunication channels used to promote the
innovationinnovation
4.4. Nature of the social system into which theNature of the social system into which the
product is adoptedproduct is adopted
5.5. Extent of the change agent’s promotional effortsExtent of the change agent’s promotional efforts
Gartner Group ModelGartner Group Model
Customer Adoption Roadmap involves:Customer Adoption Roadmap involves:
1. Consumer attitudes and behaviors
2. Market conditions
3. Accelerators and inhibitors
4. Challenges and opportunities for the
industries that participate
5. Opportunities for non-technology marketers
[1][1] Richard Trinker & Brian Smith, "Consumer Technology Adoption Roadmap,"Richard Trinker & Brian Smith, "Consumer Technology Adoption Roadmap," Gartner G2Gartner G2 (2002). pp. 5-6(2002). pp. 5-6
Stages of Decision MakingStages of Decision Making
Based on Rogers, the individual passes throughBased on Rogers, the individual passes through
five stages in the process of making afive stages in the process of making a
purchasing decision:purchasing decision:
1. Knowledge of an innovation
2. Forming an attitude toward the innovation
3. Decision to adopt or reject the innovation
4. Implementation of the new idea
5. Confirmation of this decision
Factors that Impact Rate ofFactors that Impact Rate of
AdoptionAdoption
Rogers discovered that there is a 49%-Rogers discovered that there is a 49%-
87% variance in the rate of adoption,87% variance in the rate of adoption,
which can be explained by the followingwhich can be explained by the following
five attributes:five attributes:
 Relative advantageRelative advantage
 CompatibilityCompatibility
 ComplexityComplexity
 TrialabilityTrialability
 ObservabilityObservability
Consumer Valued AttributesConsumer Valued Attributes
For example, the role social prestige playsFor example, the role social prestige plays
in purchasing decisionsin purchasing decisions
 Malcolm’sMalcolm’s Tipping PointTipping Point
 Law of the FewLaw of the Few
 Stickiness FactorStickiness Factor
 Power of ContextPower of Context
Challenges to Roger’sChallenges to Roger’s
Diffusion ModelDiffusion Model
 Applied to adoption of any innovationApplied to adoption of any innovation
 Does not account for the time that anDoes not account for the time that an
adoption process may takeadoption process may take
 Can not predict the total number ofCan not predict the total number of
innovators and early adoptersinnovators and early adopters
 Does not account for various other marketDoes not account for various other market
factors that will influence rates of adoptionfactors that will influence rates of adoption
Consumer BehaviorConsumer Behavior
Affect the following factors’s impact onAffect the following factors’s impact on
purchasing decision:purchasing decision:
 SocialSocial
 CulturalCultural
 PersonalPersonal
 PsychologicalPsychological
Theories of MotivationTheories of Motivation
 The most familiar human motivation theoriesThe most familiar human motivation theories
are from the works of Marshall, Freud,are from the works of Marshall, Freud,
Veblen, Herzberg and Maslow.Veblen, Herzberg and Maslow.
 Marshall model – motivated by economicMarshall model – motivated by economic
factorsfactors
 Freud – subconscious psychological factorsFreud – subconscious psychological factors
 Veblen –driven by social prestigeVeblen –driven by social prestige
 Herzberg – satisfiers vs. dissatifiersHerzberg – satisfiers vs. dissatifiers
 Maslow – Hierarchy of needsMaslow – Hierarchy of needs
Theories of PerceptionTheories of Perception
 Selective attentionSelective attention
 Selective distortionSelective distortion
 Selective retentionSelective retention
Communication ChannelCommunication Channel
 Interpersonal better for complexInterpersonal better for complex
technology products, mass media fortechnology products, mass media for
easy to understand and adopt products.easy to understand and adopt products.
 Importance of Change AgentsImportance of Change Agents
Predicting Market DemandPredicting Market Demand
Bass ModelBass Model
Prediction Market DemandPrediction Market Demand
 Other Models:Other Models:
 Delphi –convening expertsDelphi –convening experts
Forecast based on a similar marketForecast based on a similar market
 Forecast based on individualForecast based on individual
demographics driven purchasesdemographics driven purchases
 Forecast based on sampling consumersForecast based on sampling consumers
and extrapolatingand extrapolating
Application of Models to PredictingApplication of Models to Predicting
Adoption for Wearable ComputersAdoption for Wearable Computers
 Focus on gathering consumer attitudesFocus on gathering consumer attitudes
and behaviors that will affect adoptionand behaviors that will affect adoption
interest and ratesinterest and rates
 Use of Gartner Group modelUse of Gartner Group model
 Use of consumer behavior andUse of consumer behavior and
motivation theories.motivation theories.
Data CollectionData Collection
Data CollectionData Collection
 4 sources of data4 sources of data
 2 email driven/web based surveys2 email driven/web based surveys
 Early adopters asked to give their reactionsEarly adopters asked to give their reactions
about wearable computing features andabout wearable computing features and
applications and interest in smart fabricsapplications and interest in smart fabrics
 Focus Group with Poma productFocus Group with Poma product
 Daily Use Trial with PomaDaily Use Trial with Poma
Demographic Summary – Survey #1Demographic Summary – Survey #1
 24 questions @ their technology use and24 questions @ their technology use and
interest in wearable computersinterest in wearable computers
 Launched December 3, 2003Launched December 3, 2003
 A total of 256 people (97 men & 157 women)A total of 256 people (97 men & 157 women)
responded.responded.
 Survey respondents were mostly women agesSurvey respondents were mostly women ages
31-40 who work in the DC metro area and31-40 who work in the DC metro area and
make $50,000 to $74,999 a year as a trainedmake $50,000 to $74,999 a year as a trained
professional or self-employed/partner.professional or self-employed/partner.
Demographic Summary – Survey #2Demographic Summary – Survey #2
 16 questions about interest in specific wearable16 questions about interest in specific wearable
computer features and integration with smart fabricscomputer features and integration with smart fabrics
 Launched February 14, 2003Launched February 14, 2003
 A total of 90 people responded with 15 men and 78A total of 90 people responded with 15 men and 78
women.women.
 Women, 25-40 age range, work in the technology,Women, 25-40 age range, work in the technology,
communications or design profession, live in the DCcommunications or design profession, live in the DC
metro area, annual income of $40K-$75K a year.metro area, annual income of $40K-$75K a year.
Currently own multiple mobile technologies.Currently own multiple mobile technologies.
Demographic Summary –Demographic Summary –
Focus GroupFocus Group
 The Poma focus group was held on a February 10,
2003, a weekday night at 7:00 PM in a classroom on
the Georgetown University campus.
 12 participants – most in tech industry
 Ages: 26 to 50, majority in their mid 30s.
 All from greater DC metro area.
 All owned multiple mobile devices
Demographic Summary –Demographic Summary –
Daily Use TrialDaily Use Trial
 Joe, a 24-year-old Korean male whoJoe, a 24-year-old Korean male who
lived in the DC metro area.lived in the DC metro area.
 Joe is a customer service representativeJoe is a customer service representative
at a mutual fund company and is anat a mutual fund company and is an
early adopter.early adopter.
 He owns a digital camera, laptop, PDA,He owns a digital camera, laptop, PDA,
smart phone, and MP3 player.smart phone, and MP3 player.
Data Collection – CommonData Collection – Common
ThemesThemes
 Impact of pre-existing attitudes andImpact of pre-existing attitudes and
expectationsexpectations
 Concern about how the technologyConcern about how the technology
would change their liveswould change their lives
 Feedback about functionality andFeedback about functionality and
applications that would be of useapplications that would be of use
 Product improvement suggestionsProduct improvement suggestions
 Feedback about price and marketingFeedback about price and marketing
Data Collection – Pre-existingData Collection – Pre-existing
attitudes and expectationsattitudes and expectations
 In every situation, their expectations of what the
technology could do and how they would use the
technology did not match their first experiences with
the product.
Focus Group:Focus Group:
 Mike commented, “I thought it would be cool and lifeMike commented, “I thought it would be cool and life
changing, and it ended up being mediocre and notchanging, and it ended up being mediocre and not
that interesting.”that interesting.”
Survey – Pre-ExistingSurvey – Pre-Existing
ConceptsConcepts
 Associations:Associations:
 Mobile Internet (8 out of 256)Mobile Internet (8 out of 256)
 Smart Clothing (36 out of 256)Smart Clothing (36 out of 256)
 Dick Tracy, Star Trek, Matrix, James BondDick Tracy, Star Trek, Matrix, James Bond
(8 out of 256)(8 out of 256)
 Technology Implants (3 out of 256)Technology Implants (3 out of 256)
 PDAs (31 out of 256)PDAs (31 out of 256)
 NegativeNegative
Concepts of “WearableConcepts of “Wearable
Computer”Computer”
 Exchanging business cards by shakingExchanging business cards by shaking
hands or a really dumb hat that tellshands or a really dumb hat that tells
me temperature and humidityme temperature and humidity..
 The geek sitting on the fountain scaringThe geek sitting on the fountain scaring
the pigeons.the pigeons.
Data Collection – CommonData Collection – Common
ConcernsConcerns
 Concern about Impact on SocialConcern about Impact on Social
InteractionsInteractions
 Concerns about user attentionConcerns about user attention
 Concerns about always being connectedConcerns about always being connected
Concern –Always ConnectedConcern –Always Connected
Do we need to be so connected? Really, has
"portable" communication like the cell phone really
made our lives better? Or simply made us more
chained to our jobs etc? I see many people who just
"must" stay connected wasting much time and
increasing their anxiety when not connected.
I think of the benefits it could produce but worry about
the abuses -- the "big brother" effect, or more Spam.
Concern – Impact on SocialConcern – Impact on Social
InteractionsInteractions
I'm disconnected from the real world often enough II'm disconnected from the real world often enough I
don't need to have the real world represented as adon't need to have the real world represented as a
video image.video image.
Concern – User AttentionConcern – User Attention
With a wearable computer, you can work while shopping,With a wearable computer, you can work while shopping,
exercising, and - most frightening of all - drivingexercising, and - most frightening of all - driving
““On my ride, home I broke the rules and wore the device as I wasOn my ride, home I broke the rules and wore the device as I was
driving. With the device on I had a hard time at times keepingdriving. With the device on I had a hard time at times keeping
focus even though all I was doing was driving and trying tofocus even though all I was doing was driving and trying to
avoid paying attention to the screen. It has a way of creatingavoid paying attention to the screen. It has a way of creating
tunnel vision. This was something that I had noticed earliertunnel vision. This was something that I had noticed earlier
when I tried to talk to co-workers with a Word document up. Iwhen I tried to talk to co-workers with a Word document up. I
was able to focus on their face but the rest of their body wouldwas able to focus on their face but the rest of their body would
wash out.” – Joe, daily test subjectwash out.” – Joe, daily test subject
Feedback – Functionality &Feedback – Functionality &
ApplicationsApplications
 Full page, mobile InternetFull page, mobile Internet
 Focus Group:Focus Group:
1. mobile GPS to assist in finding directions and business
locations
2. Communication functionality (cell phone, instant
messaging, email, instant translation)
3. Mobile Internet
4. Contact management
Product ImprovementProduct Improvement
SuggestionsSuggestions
From Focus Group:
1. Improving the screen visibility
2. Improving the input mechanism
3. Removing the wires from the CPU to
mouse and the CPU to the HMD
4. Fixing the fit of the HMD
5. Limited battery life
Improvement of ProductImprovement of Product
Features - HMDFeatures - HMD
 HMDHMD
 Focus group and dailyFocus group and daily
use found ituse found it
impossible to useimpossible to use
 Survey respondentsSurvey respondents
were more interestedwere more interested
in HMD displays thanin HMD displays than
traditional handheldtraditional handheld
or MicroVisionor MicroVision
displaysdisplays
Improvement of ProductImprovement of Product
Features – InputFeatures – Input
 Focus group and daily use participantsFocus group and daily use participants
wanted different input deviceswanted different input devices
““If you’re using up 90% of your brainpower just to work theIf you’re using up 90% of your brainpower just to work the
wearable, it’s not an augmentation but a tremendous handicap.”wearable, it’s not an augmentation but a tremendous handicap.”
Alex Lightman, Charmed TechnologiesAlex Lightman, Charmed Technologies
 Suggestions:Suggestions:
 Pen style input for data entryPen style input for data entry
 Thumb keyboardThumb keyboard
 Voice recognitionVoice recognition
Improvement of ProductImprovement of Product
Features – Operating SystemFeatures – Operating System
 Focus group and daily use participantsFocus group and daily use participants
wanted Pocket PC or Palm interface, notwanted Pocket PC or Palm interface, not
Windows CEWindows CE
Interest in WearableInterest in Wearable
Computers + Smart FabricsComputers + Smart Fabrics
 Industry thinks consumersIndustry thinks consumers
will be more interested inwill be more interested in
wearable computers if theywearable computers if they
are embedded in clothare embedded in cloth
 Consumers sampled for thisConsumers sampled for this
study were not interested instudy were not interested in
smart fabricssmart fabrics
 Too disposable when fashionsToo disposable when fashions
changechange
Marketing the WearableMarketing the Wearable
 Respondent Suggestions:Respondent Suggestions:
 Create an improved productCreate an improved product
 Provide customer testimonialsProvide customer testimonials
 Provide ability to try the product (for ex.Provide ability to try the product (for ex.
demos in Best Buy)demos in Best Buy)
 Highlight the wireless and the mobilityHighlight the wireless and the mobility
 Highlight the softwareHighlight the software
 Use “cool” cultural references (Use “cool” cultural references (The MatrixThe Matrix))
Interest in PurchasingInterest in Purchasing
 No respondent was interested in purchasingNo respondent was interested in purchasing
the Poma without improvementsthe Poma without improvements
 Consumers were thought $1200 was to high,Consumers were thought $1200 was to high,
and were comfortable with a price range ofand were comfortable with a price range of
$400-$700$400-$700
 ““At that price point, no one is going to buy itAt that price point, no one is going to buy it
without trying it one”without trying it one” – focus group– focus group
participantparticipant
Pivotal “Killer App”Pivotal “Killer App”
Ability to access mobileAbility to access mobile
InternetInternet
Wireless InternetWireless Internet
The evolution and currentThe evolution and current
state of WiFi and cellularstate of WiFi and cellular
networksnetworks
Wireless InternetWireless Internet
 Network Economic TheoryNetwork Economic Theory
 Mechanics of Wireless DataMechanics of Wireless Data
TransmissionTransmission
 History and Evolution of WirelessHistory and Evolution of Wireless
Standards: WiFi and CellularStandards: WiFi and Cellular
Network EconomiesNetwork Economies
 Network EffectsNetwork Effects
 StandardsStandards
 InteroperabilityInteroperability
StandardsStandards
 Standards are composed of agreed uponStandards are composed of agreed upon
rules or models that outline principlesrules or models that outline principles
and practices to follow that will ensureand practices to follow that will ensure
interoperability.interoperability.
 Two standards:Two standards:
 Wireless Fidelity (WiFi)Wireless Fidelity (WiFi)
 Poma currently uses this standardPoma currently uses this standard
 2.5-3 G Cellular Standards2.5-3 G Cellular Standards
The Mechanics of WirelessThe Mechanics of Wireless
Data TransmissionData Transmission
 Electromagnetic waves carry voice and data from theElectromagnetic waves carry voice and data from the
mobile device to a receiver and then on to anothermobile device to a receiver and then on to another
wireless device or the Internet.wireless device or the Internet.
 The number of oscillations per second of anThe number of oscillations per second of an
electromagnetic wave is called its frequency, felectromagnetic wave is called its frequency, f
 Frequencies are is measured in Hz (in honor ofFrequencies are is measured in Hz (in honor of
Heinrich Hertz).Heinrich Hertz).
 Electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light.Electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light.
 Higher frequencies (cellular) bounce off obstaclesHigher frequencies (cellular) bounce off obstacles
Wireless Internet - WiFiWireless Internet - WiFi
 WiFiWiFi
 Pros:Pros:
 Free accessFree access
 Ability to support high data transfer ratesAbility to support high data transfer rates
 Doesn’t require the firm to create carrierDoesn’t require the firm to create carrier
agreementsagreements
 Cons:Cons:
 Patchy coveragePatchy coverage
 Hard to configureHard to configure
Wireless Internet - CellularWireless Internet - Cellular
 Pros:Pros:
 Expansive coverageExpansive coverage
 Easy for user to configureEasy for user to configure
 Cons:Cons:
 Requires formal carrier arrangementRequires formal carrier arrangement
between hardware and cellular providerbetween hardware and cellular provider
 Infrastructure can’t yet support high dataInfrastructure can’t yet support high data
demands or consistent connectiondemands or consistent connection
Current State of WirelessCurrent State of Wireless
InternetInternet
 Neither standard had enough of a footprint orNeither standard had enough of a footprint or
enough infrastructure support to support trueenough infrastructure support to support true
mobile computingmobile computing
 Wearable computing firms should moveWearable computing firms should move
toward arranging cellular agreements so thattoward arranging cellular agreements so that
consumers will have the ease of use associatedconsumers will have the ease of use associated
with cellular supported computing.with cellular supported computing.
ConclusionsConclusions
 Early Adopter consumers are ready forEarly Adopter consumers are ready for
the concept of wearable computingthe concept of wearable computing
 They are not interested in the PomaThey are not interested in the Poma
 The “Killer App” is the ability to accessThe “Killer App” is the ability to access
full page Internet content while mobilefull page Internet content while mobile
 Consumers don’t want “always-on”Consumers don’t want “always-on”
computingcomputing
Features of the Improved ConsumerFeatures of the Improved Consumer
Wearable ComputerWearable Computer
 Uses new MicroOptical eyewear for HMDUses new MicroOptical eyewear for HMD
 Palm OS or Pocket PC OSPalm OS or Pocket PC OS
 Is supported by cellular infrastructure andIs supported by cellular infrastructure and
offers cellular phone featuresoffers cellular phone features
 Pen based inputPen based input
 Provides GPS-driven contentProvides GPS-driven content
 Appealing softwareAppealing software
 Longer battery lifeLonger battery life
 DurableDurable
Is the Wearable Computing IndustryIs the Wearable Computing Industry
ready for consumers’ interestready for consumers’ interest
 No. Keep an eye out for systemNo. Keep an eye out for system
integrators that combine technologiesintegrators that combine technologies
and market the combined product (likeand market the combined product (like
International Imaging System’s SecondInternational Imaging System’s Second
Reader).Reader).

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Consumer Adoption of Wearable Computers - Master Thesis Defense

  • 1. Marketing WearableMarketing Wearable Computers to Consumers:Computers to Consumers: An Examination of Early AdopterAn Examination of Early Adopter Consumers' Feelings and AttitudesConsumers' Feelings and Attitudes Toward Wearable ComputersToward Wearable Computers
  • 2. What is a WearableWhat is a Wearable Computer?Computer?  a fully functional, self-powered, self-a fully functional, self-powered, self- contained computer that is worn on thecontained computer that is worn on the body providing access to informationbody providing access to information and interaction with informationand interaction with information anywhere and at anytime.anywhere and at anytime.[1][1] [1] T. Mann Starner, S. Rhodes, B. Levine, J. Healy, J.Kirsch, D. Picard R, and Pentland, A., "Augmented Reality through Wearable Computing. Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments," in Fundamentals of Wearable Computing (1997).pp. 6.
  • 3. Unique FeaturesUnique Features Different from other mobile devices:Different from other mobile devices:  Fully Functioning Computers  Head Mounted Displays  Always On  Input Devices  Power Supply
  • 4. Fully Functioning ComputerFully Functioning Computer  Can offer as much computing power asCan offer as much computing power as a desktop computera desktop computer
  • 5. Head MountedHead Mounted DisplaysDisplays  2 major optical designs2 major optical designs  2 types of functionality2 types of functionality  OpticalOptical  VideoVideo
  • 6. ““Always-On” ComputingAlways-On” Computing  Computing is not the main taskComputing is not the main task  Either enhances or supports the user’sEither enhances or supports the user’s interaction with the environment byinteraction with the environment by providing additional informationproviding additional information
  • 7. Input DevicesInput Devices  Body-mounted keyboardsBody-mounted keyboards  Speech recognition softwareSpeech recognition software  Hand-held keyboards (or touch screens)Hand-held keyboards (or touch screens)  Optical miceOptical mice  Chording devices Chording Device: “Twiddler”
  • 8. Power SupplyPower Supply  Due to always on functionality,Due to always on functionality, wearable computers have more powerwearable computers have more power demands than other mobile devices.demands than other mobile devices.  Suggestion for increased battery lifeSuggestion for increased battery life include:include:  Self-generated power through shoe insertsSelf-generated power through shoe inserts  Synthetic fibers that generate power whenSynthetic fibers that generate power when exposed to lightexposed to light
  • 9. Demo of the PomaDemo of the Poma
  • 10. History of WearableHistory of Wearable ComputingComputing  MIT Media Lab’s Wearable ComputingMIT Media Lab’s Wearable Computing GroupGroup  Inventors:Inventors: Steven Mann Thad Starner
  • 11. Wearable Computing IndustryWearable Computing Industry  Used for defense, intelligence,Used for defense, intelligence, commercial and retail applications.commercial and retail applications.  Recently entered consumer marketRecently entered consumer market  Xybernaut Corporation - MannXybernaut Corporation - Mann  Charmed Technologies - StarnerCharmed Technologies - Starner
  • 12. Consumer ProductsConsumer Products  Xybernaut's Poma & Charmed Technology’s CharmItXybernaut's Poma & Charmed Technology’s CharmIt CharmIt Poma
  • 13. Wearable ComputingWearable Computing ApplicationsApplications  Sharing Experiences Via VideoSharing Experiences Via Video  Remembrance ApplicationsRemembrance Applications  Smart FabricsSmart Fabrics  GPS Driven InformationGPS Driven Information  NanoTechnologyNanoTechnology
  • 14. Predicting:Predicting: Product Adoption,Product Adoption, Market Impact &Market Impact & Consumer BehaviorConsumer Behavior
  • 15. Product AdoptionProduct Adoption  Everett RogersEverett Rogers  Product Adoption TheoryProduct Adoption Theory  Categories of AdoptersCategories of Adopters  Factors that Impact AdoptionFactors that Impact Adoption  Geoffrey MooreGeoffrey Moore  The “Chasm” between early adopters andThe “Chasm” between early adopters and mainstream marketmainstream market
  • 18. Purchasing DecisionPurchasing Decision  Based on Rogers, five factors that impactBased on Rogers, five factors that impact adoption:adoption: 1.1. Perceived attributes of the innovationPerceived attributes of the innovation 2.2. Number of people involved in the adoptionNumber of people involved in the adoption decision (individual vs. an organization)decision (individual vs. an organization) 3.3. Communication channels used to promote theCommunication channels used to promote the innovationinnovation 4.4. Nature of the social system into which theNature of the social system into which the product is adoptedproduct is adopted 5.5. Extent of the change agent’s promotional effortsExtent of the change agent’s promotional efforts
  • 19. Gartner Group ModelGartner Group Model Customer Adoption Roadmap involves:Customer Adoption Roadmap involves: 1. Consumer attitudes and behaviors 2. Market conditions 3. Accelerators and inhibitors 4. Challenges and opportunities for the industries that participate 5. Opportunities for non-technology marketers [1][1] Richard Trinker & Brian Smith, "Consumer Technology Adoption Roadmap,"Richard Trinker & Brian Smith, "Consumer Technology Adoption Roadmap," Gartner G2Gartner G2 (2002). pp. 5-6(2002). pp. 5-6
  • 20. Stages of Decision MakingStages of Decision Making Based on Rogers, the individual passes throughBased on Rogers, the individual passes through five stages in the process of making afive stages in the process of making a purchasing decision:purchasing decision: 1. Knowledge of an innovation 2. Forming an attitude toward the innovation 3. Decision to adopt or reject the innovation 4. Implementation of the new idea 5. Confirmation of this decision
  • 21. Factors that Impact Rate ofFactors that Impact Rate of AdoptionAdoption Rogers discovered that there is a 49%-Rogers discovered that there is a 49%- 87% variance in the rate of adoption,87% variance in the rate of adoption, which can be explained by the followingwhich can be explained by the following five attributes:five attributes:  Relative advantageRelative advantage  CompatibilityCompatibility  ComplexityComplexity  TrialabilityTrialability  ObservabilityObservability
  • 22. Consumer Valued AttributesConsumer Valued Attributes For example, the role social prestige playsFor example, the role social prestige plays in purchasing decisionsin purchasing decisions  Malcolm’sMalcolm’s Tipping PointTipping Point  Law of the FewLaw of the Few  Stickiness FactorStickiness Factor  Power of ContextPower of Context
  • 23. Challenges to Roger’sChallenges to Roger’s Diffusion ModelDiffusion Model  Applied to adoption of any innovationApplied to adoption of any innovation  Does not account for the time that anDoes not account for the time that an adoption process may takeadoption process may take  Can not predict the total number ofCan not predict the total number of innovators and early adoptersinnovators and early adopters  Does not account for various other marketDoes not account for various other market factors that will influence rates of adoptionfactors that will influence rates of adoption
  • 24. Consumer BehaviorConsumer Behavior Affect the following factors’s impact onAffect the following factors’s impact on purchasing decision:purchasing decision:  SocialSocial  CulturalCultural  PersonalPersonal  PsychologicalPsychological
  • 25. Theories of MotivationTheories of Motivation  The most familiar human motivation theoriesThe most familiar human motivation theories are from the works of Marshall, Freud,are from the works of Marshall, Freud, Veblen, Herzberg and Maslow.Veblen, Herzberg and Maslow.  Marshall model – motivated by economicMarshall model – motivated by economic factorsfactors  Freud – subconscious psychological factorsFreud – subconscious psychological factors  Veblen –driven by social prestigeVeblen –driven by social prestige  Herzberg – satisfiers vs. dissatifiersHerzberg – satisfiers vs. dissatifiers  Maslow – Hierarchy of needsMaslow – Hierarchy of needs
  • 26. Theories of PerceptionTheories of Perception  Selective attentionSelective attention  Selective distortionSelective distortion  Selective retentionSelective retention
  • 27. Communication ChannelCommunication Channel  Interpersonal better for complexInterpersonal better for complex technology products, mass media fortechnology products, mass media for easy to understand and adopt products.easy to understand and adopt products.  Importance of Change AgentsImportance of Change Agents
  • 28. Predicting Market DemandPredicting Market Demand Bass ModelBass Model
  • 29. Prediction Market DemandPrediction Market Demand  Other Models:Other Models:  Delphi –convening expertsDelphi –convening experts Forecast based on a similar marketForecast based on a similar market  Forecast based on individualForecast based on individual demographics driven purchasesdemographics driven purchases  Forecast based on sampling consumersForecast based on sampling consumers and extrapolatingand extrapolating
  • 30. Application of Models to PredictingApplication of Models to Predicting Adoption for Wearable ComputersAdoption for Wearable Computers  Focus on gathering consumer attitudesFocus on gathering consumer attitudes and behaviors that will affect adoptionand behaviors that will affect adoption interest and ratesinterest and rates  Use of Gartner Group modelUse of Gartner Group model  Use of consumer behavior andUse of consumer behavior and motivation theories.motivation theories.
  • 32. Data CollectionData Collection  4 sources of data4 sources of data  2 email driven/web based surveys2 email driven/web based surveys  Early adopters asked to give their reactionsEarly adopters asked to give their reactions about wearable computing features andabout wearable computing features and applications and interest in smart fabricsapplications and interest in smart fabrics  Focus Group with Poma productFocus Group with Poma product  Daily Use Trial with PomaDaily Use Trial with Poma
  • 33. Demographic Summary – Survey #1Demographic Summary – Survey #1  24 questions @ their technology use and24 questions @ their technology use and interest in wearable computersinterest in wearable computers  Launched December 3, 2003Launched December 3, 2003  A total of 256 people (97 men & 157 women)A total of 256 people (97 men & 157 women) responded.responded.  Survey respondents were mostly women agesSurvey respondents were mostly women ages 31-40 who work in the DC metro area and31-40 who work in the DC metro area and make $50,000 to $74,999 a year as a trainedmake $50,000 to $74,999 a year as a trained professional or self-employed/partner.professional or self-employed/partner.
  • 34. Demographic Summary – Survey #2Demographic Summary – Survey #2  16 questions about interest in specific wearable16 questions about interest in specific wearable computer features and integration with smart fabricscomputer features and integration with smart fabrics  Launched February 14, 2003Launched February 14, 2003  A total of 90 people responded with 15 men and 78A total of 90 people responded with 15 men and 78 women.women.  Women, 25-40 age range, work in the technology,Women, 25-40 age range, work in the technology, communications or design profession, live in the DCcommunications or design profession, live in the DC metro area, annual income of $40K-$75K a year.metro area, annual income of $40K-$75K a year. Currently own multiple mobile technologies.Currently own multiple mobile technologies.
  • 35. Demographic Summary –Demographic Summary – Focus GroupFocus Group  The Poma focus group was held on a February 10, 2003, a weekday night at 7:00 PM in a classroom on the Georgetown University campus.  12 participants – most in tech industry  Ages: 26 to 50, majority in their mid 30s.  All from greater DC metro area.  All owned multiple mobile devices
  • 36. Demographic Summary –Demographic Summary – Daily Use TrialDaily Use Trial  Joe, a 24-year-old Korean male whoJoe, a 24-year-old Korean male who lived in the DC metro area.lived in the DC metro area.  Joe is a customer service representativeJoe is a customer service representative at a mutual fund company and is anat a mutual fund company and is an early adopter.early adopter.  He owns a digital camera, laptop, PDA,He owns a digital camera, laptop, PDA, smart phone, and MP3 player.smart phone, and MP3 player.
  • 37. Data Collection – CommonData Collection – Common ThemesThemes  Impact of pre-existing attitudes andImpact of pre-existing attitudes and expectationsexpectations  Concern about how the technologyConcern about how the technology would change their liveswould change their lives  Feedback about functionality andFeedback about functionality and applications that would be of useapplications that would be of use  Product improvement suggestionsProduct improvement suggestions  Feedback about price and marketingFeedback about price and marketing
  • 38. Data Collection – Pre-existingData Collection – Pre-existing attitudes and expectationsattitudes and expectations  In every situation, their expectations of what the technology could do and how they would use the technology did not match their first experiences with the product. Focus Group:Focus Group:  Mike commented, “I thought it would be cool and lifeMike commented, “I thought it would be cool and life changing, and it ended up being mediocre and notchanging, and it ended up being mediocre and not that interesting.”that interesting.”
  • 39. Survey – Pre-ExistingSurvey – Pre-Existing ConceptsConcepts  Associations:Associations:  Mobile Internet (8 out of 256)Mobile Internet (8 out of 256)  Smart Clothing (36 out of 256)Smart Clothing (36 out of 256)  Dick Tracy, Star Trek, Matrix, James BondDick Tracy, Star Trek, Matrix, James Bond (8 out of 256)(8 out of 256)  Technology Implants (3 out of 256)Technology Implants (3 out of 256)  PDAs (31 out of 256)PDAs (31 out of 256)  NegativeNegative
  • 40. Concepts of “WearableConcepts of “Wearable Computer”Computer”  Exchanging business cards by shakingExchanging business cards by shaking hands or a really dumb hat that tellshands or a really dumb hat that tells me temperature and humidityme temperature and humidity..  The geek sitting on the fountain scaringThe geek sitting on the fountain scaring the pigeons.the pigeons.
  • 41. Data Collection – CommonData Collection – Common ConcernsConcerns  Concern about Impact on SocialConcern about Impact on Social InteractionsInteractions  Concerns about user attentionConcerns about user attention  Concerns about always being connectedConcerns about always being connected
  • 42. Concern –Always ConnectedConcern –Always Connected Do we need to be so connected? Really, has "portable" communication like the cell phone really made our lives better? Or simply made us more chained to our jobs etc? I see many people who just "must" stay connected wasting much time and increasing their anxiety when not connected. I think of the benefits it could produce but worry about the abuses -- the "big brother" effect, or more Spam.
  • 43. Concern – Impact on SocialConcern – Impact on Social InteractionsInteractions I'm disconnected from the real world often enough II'm disconnected from the real world often enough I don't need to have the real world represented as adon't need to have the real world represented as a video image.video image.
  • 44. Concern – User AttentionConcern – User Attention With a wearable computer, you can work while shopping,With a wearable computer, you can work while shopping, exercising, and - most frightening of all - drivingexercising, and - most frightening of all - driving ““On my ride, home I broke the rules and wore the device as I wasOn my ride, home I broke the rules and wore the device as I was driving. With the device on I had a hard time at times keepingdriving. With the device on I had a hard time at times keeping focus even though all I was doing was driving and trying tofocus even though all I was doing was driving and trying to avoid paying attention to the screen. It has a way of creatingavoid paying attention to the screen. It has a way of creating tunnel vision. This was something that I had noticed earliertunnel vision. This was something that I had noticed earlier when I tried to talk to co-workers with a Word document up. Iwhen I tried to talk to co-workers with a Word document up. I was able to focus on their face but the rest of their body wouldwas able to focus on their face but the rest of their body would wash out.” – Joe, daily test subjectwash out.” – Joe, daily test subject
  • 45. Feedback – Functionality &Feedback – Functionality & ApplicationsApplications  Full page, mobile InternetFull page, mobile Internet  Focus Group:Focus Group: 1. mobile GPS to assist in finding directions and business locations 2. Communication functionality (cell phone, instant messaging, email, instant translation) 3. Mobile Internet 4. Contact management
  • 46. Product ImprovementProduct Improvement SuggestionsSuggestions From Focus Group: 1. Improving the screen visibility 2. Improving the input mechanism 3. Removing the wires from the CPU to mouse and the CPU to the HMD 4. Fixing the fit of the HMD 5. Limited battery life
  • 47. Improvement of ProductImprovement of Product Features - HMDFeatures - HMD  HMDHMD  Focus group and dailyFocus group and daily use found ituse found it impossible to useimpossible to use  Survey respondentsSurvey respondents were more interestedwere more interested in HMD displays thanin HMD displays than traditional handheldtraditional handheld or MicroVisionor MicroVision displaysdisplays
  • 48. Improvement of ProductImprovement of Product Features – InputFeatures – Input  Focus group and daily use participantsFocus group and daily use participants wanted different input deviceswanted different input devices ““If you’re using up 90% of your brainpower just to work theIf you’re using up 90% of your brainpower just to work the wearable, it’s not an augmentation but a tremendous handicap.”wearable, it’s not an augmentation but a tremendous handicap.” Alex Lightman, Charmed TechnologiesAlex Lightman, Charmed Technologies  Suggestions:Suggestions:  Pen style input for data entryPen style input for data entry  Thumb keyboardThumb keyboard  Voice recognitionVoice recognition
  • 49. Improvement of ProductImprovement of Product Features – Operating SystemFeatures – Operating System  Focus group and daily use participantsFocus group and daily use participants wanted Pocket PC or Palm interface, notwanted Pocket PC or Palm interface, not Windows CEWindows CE
  • 50. Interest in WearableInterest in Wearable Computers + Smart FabricsComputers + Smart Fabrics  Industry thinks consumersIndustry thinks consumers will be more interested inwill be more interested in wearable computers if theywearable computers if they are embedded in clothare embedded in cloth  Consumers sampled for thisConsumers sampled for this study were not interested instudy were not interested in smart fabricssmart fabrics  Too disposable when fashionsToo disposable when fashions changechange
  • 51. Marketing the WearableMarketing the Wearable  Respondent Suggestions:Respondent Suggestions:  Create an improved productCreate an improved product  Provide customer testimonialsProvide customer testimonials  Provide ability to try the product (for ex.Provide ability to try the product (for ex. demos in Best Buy)demos in Best Buy)  Highlight the wireless and the mobilityHighlight the wireless and the mobility  Highlight the softwareHighlight the software  Use “cool” cultural references (Use “cool” cultural references (The MatrixThe Matrix))
  • 52. Interest in PurchasingInterest in Purchasing  No respondent was interested in purchasingNo respondent was interested in purchasing the Poma without improvementsthe Poma without improvements  Consumers were thought $1200 was to high,Consumers were thought $1200 was to high, and were comfortable with a price range ofand were comfortable with a price range of $400-$700$400-$700  ““At that price point, no one is going to buy itAt that price point, no one is going to buy it without trying it one”without trying it one” – focus group– focus group participantparticipant
  • 53. Pivotal “Killer App”Pivotal “Killer App” Ability to access mobileAbility to access mobile InternetInternet
  • 54. Wireless InternetWireless Internet The evolution and currentThe evolution and current state of WiFi and cellularstate of WiFi and cellular networksnetworks
  • 55. Wireless InternetWireless Internet  Network Economic TheoryNetwork Economic Theory  Mechanics of Wireless DataMechanics of Wireless Data TransmissionTransmission  History and Evolution of WirelessHistory and Evolution of Wireless Standards: WiFi and CellularStandards: WiFi and Cellular
  • 56. Network EconomiesNetwork Economies  Network EffectsNetwork Effects  StandardsStandards  InteroperabilityInteroperability
  • 57. StandardsStandards  Standards are composed of agreed uponStandards are composed of agreed upon rules or models that outline principlesrules or models that outline principles and practices to follow that will ensureand practices to follow that will ensure interoperability.interoperability.  Two standards:Two standards:  Wireless Fidelity (WiFi)Wireless Fidelity (WiFi)  Poma currently uses this standardPoma currently uses this standard  2.5-3 G Cellular Standards2.5-3 G Cellular Standards
  • 58. The Mechanics of WirelessThe Mechanics of Wireless Data TransmissionData Transmission  Electromagnetic waves carry voice and data from theElectromagnetic waves carry voice and data from the mobile device to a receiver and then on to anothermobile device to a receiver and then on to another wireless device or the Internet.wireless device or the Internet.  The number of oscillations per second of anThe number of oscillations per second of an electromagnetic wave is called its frequency, felectromagnetic wave is called its frequency, f  Frequencies are is measured in Hz (in honor ofFrequencies are is measured in Hz (in honor of Heinrich Hertz).Heinrich Hertz).  Electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light.Electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light.  Higher frequencies (cellular) bounce off obstaclesHigher frequencies (cellular) bounce off obstacles
  • 59. Wireless Internet - WiFiWireless Internet - WiFi  WiFiWiFi  Pros:Pros:  Free accessFree access  Ability to support high data transfer ratesAbility to support high data transfer rates  Doesn’t require the firm to create carrierDoesn’t require the firm to create carrier agreementsagreements  Cons:Cons:  Patchy coveragePatchy coverage  Hard to configureHard to configure
  • 60. Wireless Internet - CellularWireless Internet - Cellular  Pros:Pros:  Expansive coverageExpansive coverage  Easy for user to configureEasy for user to configure  Cons:Cons:  Requires formal carrier arrangementRequires formal carrier arrangement between hardware and cellular providerbetween hardware and cellular provider  Infrastructure can’t yet support high dataInfrastructure can’t yet support high data demands or consistent connectiondemands or consistent connection
  • 61. Current State of WirelessCurrent State of Wireless InternetInternet  Neither standard had enough of a footprint orNeither standard had enough of a footprint or enough infrastructure support to support trueenough infrastructure support to support true mobile computingmobile computing  Wearable computing firms should moveWearable computing firms should move toward arranging cellular agreements so thattoward arranging cellular agreements so that consumers will have the ease of use associatedconsumers will have the ease of use associated with cellular supported computing.with cellular supported computing.
  • 62. ConclusionsConclusions  Early Adopter consumers are ready forEarly Adopter consumers are ready for the concept of wearable computingthe concept of wearable computing  They are not interested in the PomaThey are not interested in the Poma  The “Killer App” is the ability to accessThe “Killer App” is the ability to access full page Internet content while mobilefull page Internet content while mobile  Consumers don’t want “always-on”Consumers don’t want “always-on” computingcomputing
  • 63. Features of the Improved ConsumerFeatures of the Improved Consumer Wearable ComputerWearable Computer  Uses new MicroOptical eyewear for HMDUses new MicroOptical eyewear for HMD  Palm OS or Pocket PC OSPalm OS or Pocket PC OS  Is supported by cellular infrastructure andIs supported by cellular infrastructure and offers cellular phone featuresoffers cellular phone features  Pen based inputPen based input  Provides GPS-driven contentProvides GPS-driven content  Appealing softwareAppealing software  Longer battery lifeLonger battery life  DurableDurable
  • 64. Is the Wearable Computing IndustryIs the Wearable Computing Industry ready for consumers’ interestready for consumers’ interest  No. Keep an eye out for systemNo. Keep an eye out for system integrators that combine technologiesintegrators that combine technologies and market the combined product (likeand market the combined product (like International Imaging System’s SecondInternational Imaging System’s Second Reader).Reader).

Editor's Notes

  1. German scientists are developing synthetic fibers that generate electricity when exposed to light and have stated that the fibers could be woven into machine-washable clothes to create the ultimate in portable solar cells “The body is a lousy conductor surrounded by a good conductor," Post said. Holding up a shiny, specially rigged leather Nike shoe to illustrate, he explained that the 60 watts of energy generated by an average step could provide power -- and eliminate wires -- for point to point," Post said.[1] [1] Lisa Napoli, "Wearable Computer: The User Interface Is You," The New York Times, October 14 1997. Poma 3 hours CharmIt 12 hours
  2. Steven Mann Developed his “WearComp” wearable computer in the 1970s as a reality and memory enhancement device Brought his inventions to MIT in 1991 Established The MIT Wearable Computing Group. Started Firrst International Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) International Symposium on Wearable Computing. Advisory member of Xybernaut’s board Current faculty member at University of Toronto’s Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering. “…equipped with WearComp, it is up to me how and what I see, how and what I choose to focus on or exclude; this freedom heightens my sensitivity to the flow of information that exists in a perpetual swirl around us.” Thad Starner Worked with Mann in the Wearable Computing Group Began wearing his computer in 1993. Now professor at Georgia Tech in Atlanta President of Charmed Technology, The goal,” says Starner, “is to have the computer disappear into your clothes so that no one knows you have it.”[1] [1] Stefan Theil, "Love Those Wearables!," Newsweek (2001).
  3. Xybernaut Corporation (XYBR) founded in 1990 out of Fairfax, VA and Charmed Technology founded in 2002 out of Santa Monica, CA Poma at a price point of $1500 a unit. Charmed Technology produces and sells the CharmIt a true-fully-functioning computer on its own at a price point of over $3,500.[1]  
  4. One common practice among the wearable users at conferences is to type in the name of every person met while shaking hands. There have been times when the remembrance agent has reminded the wearer that the person whose name was entered was actually been met before, and has suggested the notes taken from the previous conversation Deep Map project funded by the Klaus-Tschira-Stiftung is focused on using wearable computers as mobile tour guides for museums and city tours. With this feature, it is potentially possible for visitors to see an overlay of what the building looked like in the 1920s on top of the current architecture silk organza threads The yarn is embroidered into cloth by using gripper snaps as the connectors between the fabric and electronics. “Since the snap pierces the yarn it creates a surprisingly robust electrical contact. Christmas 2001 season, Foster-Miller Inc., Polartec, and Land’s End introduced the retail market to heated blankets made of four percent metallic fiber that created the embedding circuitry. Xerox’s Research Center of Canada, which has also announced the development of a printed organic electronic or POE transistors. These transistors are reliable enough to replace the silicon integrated circuits that make LCDs so expensive. “POE circuits, which can be sprayed on flexible plastic sheets “Three to four years from now we’ll be able to construct a 16,000-byte memory which will only be a few microns in size – that’s one-hundredth the size of a human hair,” commented Philip Kuekes, senior scientist and computer architect in Quantum Science Research at Hewlett-Packard laboratories
  5. Diffusion research is the philosophical foundation behind the development of marketing positioning strategies that use psychographics segmentation profiles to identify the most receptive target markets for a particular innovation or product. investigates how factors such as the product itself, how information about the product is disseminated, the nature of the social system to which the product is introduced and a multitude of other factors that interact to facilitate or impede the adoption of a specific product among members of a particular adopter group.[1] [1] Leyla Namiranian & Renee Hopkins, "Is There Such a Thing as ‘Early Adopters Fatigue’?." pp. 199
  6. Innovators are the first 2.5% who adopt a new technology and are interested in exploring new, untested concepts and products, often willing to absorb high costs and uncertainties for the reward of being first to adopt new technologies.[1] 1.1.1        Early Adopters Early Adopters are the next 13.5% to adopt a product. They find it easy to imagine, understand, and appreciate the benefits of a new technology, and are apt at relating the potential benefits to their other concerns. The highest numbers of “opinion leaders” are found among the early adopters. This group does not rely on well-established references to make their buying decisions and instead prefer to rely on their own intuition and vision.[2] 1.1.2        Early Majority Early Majority is defined as the next 34% to adopt a product and is characterized as deliberate and practical. They want to see reviews from well-established references before buying. They need reassurance that the new technology is stable before purchasing.[3] 1.1.3        Late Majority Late Majority represents the next 34% to adopt a product. They are skeptical about innovations and often only adopt a product because of the peer pressure from all those who have already adopted. They do not tolerate uncertainty about a product well and do not have the financial resources to switch products if the first does not meet their needs.[4] 1.1.4        Laggards Laggards make up the final 16% to adopt. These consumers are often characterized as “traditionalists” as well as “isolationists.” They often are suspicious of new technologies, and are often least able to afford any technologies that are not certain to succeed.[5] [1] Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations. pp. 263-264 [2] Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers (New York, NY: HarperBusiness, 1991), Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations. Pp. 12. [3] Ibid. [4] Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations. Pp. 265. [5] Ibid. pp. 265.
  7. His work on the chasm examines the gap in attitudes and behaviors that exists between the Early Market and Mainstream Market discusses the different strategies needed to market to each group. Early adopters have a shorter innovation-decision period (the time span between learning about an innovation and deciding to purchase/adopt the product) because they learn about the product earlier due to their interpersonal networks, and they require fewer months or years to move from knowledge about the product to decision This period of the adoption process is critical to new product adoption. “The part of the diffusion process between 10% adoption to 20% adoption is at the heart of the new product success. Before this range, there is no guarantee that a critical mass of adoption will be reached; beyond this range, it is often impossible to stop the diffusion even if one wished to do so.”
  8. 1. Consumer attitudes and behaviors toward the technology 2. Market conditions, including product pricing, competition and the maturity of the business structure of participating companies 3. Accelerators and inhibitors likely to affect the rate of the adoption moving to the next stage 4. Challenges and opportunities for the industries that participate in the product development 5. Opportunities for non-technology marketers to take advantage of consumer use of technologies as a service or product platform
  9. Which says: point of sudden change that suddenly tips the market toward mass adoption Law of the Few (in a given process or system some people matter more than others Stickiness Factor (which says there are specific ways of making a contagious message memorable Power of Context (human beings are a lot more sensitive to their environment than they may seem
  10. 1. regardless of the product or technology
  11. Social- recommendations from trusted friends are one of the largest influences in consumer purchases Cultural – see examples of pop culture’s influence on expectations in this study Personal - age and life-stage, occupation, economic circumstance, lifestyle and personality Psychological - issues that motivate a consumer’s interest, as the perception that the consumer has about the product, and the consumer’s past knowledge and pre-established beliefs about the product
  12. Marshallian model is based on the idea that a person’s behavior is inherently rational and motivated by economic factors Freud’s work suggests that psychological factors that influence behavior are unconscious Veblen developed a social-psychological interpretations of behavior which highlighted that some of consumer’s motivations are driven by need for prestige or social standing Herzberg developed the Two Factor Theory of motivation that distinguishes between satisifiers (factors that create satisfaction) and dissatisfiers (factors that create dissatisfaction) and proposed that consumer decision-making was a balance of those two factors Maslow developed a theory of motivation, which is explained as a hierarchy of needs         Psychological needs (hunger and thirst)         Safety needs (protection and security)         Social needs (a sense of love and belonging)         Esteem needs (self-esteem, recognition by others, status) Self-actualization needs (self-development and realization).
  13. Even when the message does reach consumers, the consumer’s preconceived notions often distort the message. The message is far more likely to be distorted to confirm to a consumer’s existing beliefs than to be heard without distortion if they are opposing a consumer’s beliefs The individual needs to understand the concept of the innovation, its use, and be able to apply personal meaning to the innovation
  14. due to the high amount of uncertainty about new technology products, mass media channels are not as effective for complex technology products where a variety of factors need to be considered during the innovation decision process Mass media marketing for a new innovation is most effective when the goal is to reach a large audience quickly, create and spread knowledge about a product, and encourage consumers to change their weakly-held attitudes and beliefs Change agents: it is possible to develop an individual’s interest in a new concept when it comes from a peer source early adopters rely on information from change agents more heavily to learn about, access, and decide to purchase new products. Therefore, utilizing change agents when marketing to early adopters will have results that are more effective
  15. predicts that, through time, demand for the product will start slow, and at some point increase rapidly, eventually flattening until the saturation level for the product sales is reached. To use this model, the researcher must predict the saturation level, estimate when it will be reached, and fit an S curve to those estimates Based on pilot launches of a new product, or from managerial judgments made based on the diffusion history of analogous products Challenges: The first assumption is that the market potential of a new product remains constant over time. This model, therefore, cannot be adapted for the network effects that occur in telecommunication markets (and would be present in the wearable computing market). The second assumption is that the diffusion of the new product is independent of other innovations. The telecommunication industry is based on various interdependencies between products, networks, and services; and therefore this assumption is not suited to predicting the adoption of telecommunication products. The third assumption is that the nature of an innovation does not change over time. With the face pace of product improvement in the technology product industry (as seen by release of versions of software), technology products have a higher likelihood to change as more users are exposed to and provide suggestions about the product features. Aassumes that marketing strategies - such as changing a product’s price, advertising it more heavily, and so forth - does not influence the diffusion process. Within the telecommunication industry competitive pricing and economies of scale force many companies to price products close to cost and stability of marketing strategies is not the norm. Model assumes that supply restrictions do not limit the rate of diffusion of a new product.
  16. AT&T in 1980 released a study predicting the future of cellular services. “The study claimed that by the year 2000 there would be only 900,000 US cell phone users – a number that dramatically underestimated the snowballing effect of falling prices and the desire of Americans to talk while moving. By mid 2000 there were more than 100 million US cell phone users – more than 100 times the number AT&T predicted Zangwill, author of Lightning Strategies for Innovation: How the World's Best Firms Create New Products, suggests that forecasting is a waste of resources and that companies should instead simply launch new products into the market, assess the consumer responses, adjust the design of the product or withdraw the product based on the feedback
  17. Almost three quarters of the participants currently or previously owned (C/PO) a laptop, over 90% of them C/PO a walkman and a cellphone and over half of them C/PO a PDA.
  18. Ten out of the twelve participants had both a cell phone and a laptop, nine had a PDA; five owned cell phones with web access; and four owned smart phones Ten had jobs in the technology industry. One was a CCT student Professional Positions – 3 held senior level positions (CEO, COO and Director).
  19. Respondents were asked to describe wearable computers without being provided a description. Negative – dorks who need to get more sunlight Fear of ridicule.
  20. Four respondents mentioned a recent IBM commercial run during the 2003 Superbowl by IBM to entice consumers to begin thinking about wearable computing
  21. “Right now especially when you’re trying to do a word doc you’re setting there and (he puts hand over other eye) “well let’s see” (laughter) and it defeats the whole purpose.”
  22. It would be nice to know 7:30 on a Saturday night as I’m walking to the movie theater that 75% of the movies are sold out, so don’t even bother walking there…. Tell me where the closest restaurant of this kind is…that sort of questions.” Survey (PositiveTech): Lightweight 75.1% All in One 65% Mobile Internet 69.2% Remembrance Aids 53.5% GPS 70.5%
  23. Improving the screen visibility (12 out of 12 participants listed this issue) Improving the input mechanism (11 out of 12 respondents listed this issue) Removing the wires from the CPU to mouse and the CPU to the HMD (8 out of 12) Fixing the fit of the HMD with 4 out of 12, and Limited battery life was mentioned by 3 out of 12 as an issue
  24. 40% MicroOptical 32.3% MicroDisplay 26.9% Traditional Handheld Although traditional mobile displays are functional, the option of viewing a full-size screen is attractive. I wouldn't be caught dead in those head-mounted things; they look like a 1980s sci-fi vision of a Virtual Reality Machine. Do they really think people are willing to look like that on the Metro?!
  25. Consumers rely on the assumption that they network that support the product they purchased will maintain the same quality or increase in quality over time. Decision to purchase a network good is based more on future expectations about the state of the network than the current state. Multitude of WiFi and cellular networks are interoperable. This translates into cell phone users of one network becoming “locked-in” to that network. The cell phone company's practice of requiring one-year minimum service agreements with their customers only aggravates customer lock-in cooperative constructs where products and services provided via (or as a part of) a network is deeply reliant on cooperation between the various nodes in order to operate and remain competitive. Often this cooperation is developed through the establishment of standards and agreements that maintain interoperable between the nodes
  26. Network effects represent the increase in value of the network to the user as the network becomes larger. User participation in a network is therefore heavily dependent upon that user’s expectations about the benefits derived from network participation or the size of the network Standards that maintain the rules and technological specifications for a product to use the network Mobile consumers are interested in joining the network that has the most features (like high data transfer rates), the largest user base, and the largest geographic reach
  27. De jure standards (standards that are created by committees) De facto standards (standards chosen by market behavior) There are varieties of Standard Development Organizations (SDOs), which are involved in the development of new wireless standards as well as managing the existing standards. The SDOs are comprised of national and multinational groups of companies who work together to resolve standard and spectrum issues All of the global mobile communication standards (AMPS, GSM and W-CDMA) are committee-based standards (with international participation) that are for the most part sponsored by governmental agencies IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) developed the 802.11 family of standards for wireless LAN (Local Area Network) standard. The standard originated with the 802.11a standard which operates in the 5 GHz frequency range (5.725 GHz to 5.850 GHz) with a maximum 54 Mbps data transfer rate. WiFi (Wireless Fidelity) became the name of the certification for 802.11b that operates in the 2.4 GHz frequency range (2.4 GHz to 2.4835 GHz) and provides a throughput of up to 11 Mbps which is up to 200 times faster than a modem connection and more than 4 times faster than the speeds promised by "3G" networks. Microwave ovens, cordless phones, medical and scientific equipment, as well as Bluetooth devices, all work within the 2.4 GHz frequency band
  28. Wireless communication began in 1831 when scientist Heinrich Hertz demonstrated the wave character of electrical transmission through space Italian engineer and inventor (and physics Noble Prize winner) Guglielmo Marconi to demonstrate wireless telegraphy in 1895 using long wave transmissions Since the speed of light is a constant, the frequency and wavelength are inversely proportional and at higher frequencies, electromagnetic waves tend to travel in straight lines and bounce off obstacles (which is why cellular signals have issues in areas with tall obstacles).
  29. Due to economic conditions, wearable firms (including Xybernaut) do not have the resources to re-design and launch a wearable computing product. November 2001, Xybernaut announced a manufacturing-and-marketing deal with IBM which Xybernaut officials expected would help them sell the strap-on computers to consumers. “The consumer market never really appeared, and, while its cash dwindled, Xybernaut couldn't break out of the red. It lost $26.6 million (37 cents per share) on $10 million in revenue in 2002. It had lost even more, $32.2 million (63 cents) on $9.8 million in revenue, in 2001.”[1] In April 2003, Xybernaut announced that it had backed out of the deal, had plans to cut the cost of its product by 20% and has turned to IBM Global Finance for a line of credit in exchange for a security interest in its assets. [1] Ellen McCarthy, "Xybernaut Calls Off $50 Million Ibm Deal," Washingtonpost.com, April 9 2003.