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Advancing mitigation ambition and
implementation under the UAE Consensus
Thomas Spencer, Directorate for Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, IEA
OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) Global Forum, 03.04.2024
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 2
Emissions growth is slowest since the Great Depression
Clean energy expansion slowed global emissions growth to the lowest rate ever in an expanding global economy;
in 2023 emissions in advanced economies are back to the 1973 level, with an economy three times larger
Annual rate of global energy related CO2 emissions by decade, 1903-2023
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 2023
Decade ending
WWI and Great
Depression
Energy shocks
and fall of
Soviet Union
Clean energy
driven
slowdown
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 3
Clean energy transitions are accelerating
Clean energy is growing fast, avoiding emissions and demand for fossil fuels;
without clean technology, the emissions increase since 2019 would have been three times larger
Capacity additions of solar PV
(GW)
5
10
15
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
150
300
450
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Sales of electric cars
(Million units)
1
2
3
Emissions change, 2019-23
(Gt CO2)
Avoided
by
clean
energy
Actual
increase
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 4
Emerging & developing economies face an elevated cost of capital
The cost of capital for solar PV and storage projects in emerging and developing economies can be more than double
the value in advanced economies, making it much more challenging to get projects off the ground
Cost of capital in 2022
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Emerging & developing
economies
Advanced economies
Solar PV
Storage
Solar PV
Storage
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 5

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CCXG global forum, April 2024, Thomas Spencer

  • 1. Page 1 Advancing mitigation ambition and implementation under the UAE Consensus Thomas Spencer, Directorate for Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, IEA OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) Global Forum, 03.04.2024
  • 2. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 2 Emissions growth is slowest since the Great Depression Clean energy expansion slowed global emissions growth to the lowest rate ever in an expanding global economy; in 2023 emissions in advanced economies are back to the 1973 level, with an economy three times larger Annual rate of global energy related CO2 emissions by decade, 1903-2023 -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 Decade ending WWI and Great Depression Energy shocks and fall of Soviet Union Clean energy driven slowdown
  • 3. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 3 Clean energy transitions are accelerating Clean energy is growing fast, avoiding emissions and demand for fossil fuels; without clean technology, the emissions increase since 2019 would have been three times larger Capacity additions of solar PV (GW) 5 10 15 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 150 300 450 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Sales of electric cars (Million units) 1 2 3 Emissions change, 2019-23 (Gt CO2) Avoided by clean energy Actual increase
  • 4. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 4 Emerging & developing economies face an elevated cost of capital The cost of capital for solar PV and storage projects in emerging and developing economies can be more than double the value in advanced economies, making it much more challenging to get projects off the ground Cost of capital in 2022 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Emerging & developing economies Advanced economies Solar PV Storage Solar PV Storage
  • 5. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 5