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Doubling global progress on energy efficiency and
tripling renewable energy capacity
CCXG Global Forum, 4 April 2024
Dr. Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division
Dr. Brian Motherway, Head of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Inclusive Transitions
Doubling offers substantial rewards
IEA has led the call for a global target to double energy efficiency progress this decade
Achieving the doubling goal requires action across sectors
Key actions include fuel switching, including electrification; improving the technical efficiency of products
and buildings; and avoided demand through behaviour change and materials efficiency
Actions contributing to a doubling in the rate of annual primary energy intensity improvements in the NZE Scenario
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2022 Clean
cooking
Technical
efficiency
Avoided demand 2030
NZE
Power
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Electrification
and renewables
Fuel switching
Source: IEA (2023), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach: 2023 Update.
The required policies also already exist
Governments would achieve doubling if they adopted policies that matched
• Lighting standards in South Africa
• Building codes in Tunisia
• Air conditioner regulations in China
• Car fuel economy standards in the United States
• Electric motor regulations in the European Union
• Policies for heavy industry in India
…as a package of policies, covering all key sectors, with a strong focus on policy implementation
and enforcement.
In all sectors the greatest efficiency gains are achieved by a package of policies that combine three main types of mechanisms:
Regulation , information and incentives . Careful design and implementation will deliver efficiency’s full potential to enhance
energy security, create jobs, increase living standards, cut energy bills and reduce emissions.
Policies are more effective
when they are set in the context
of clear strategies and targets.
Implementation
is as important as
policy design.
Targets
Essential
elements
Policy Packages for Energy Efficiency
Information helps people make more efficient
choices in what they buy and how they use energy.
Address vital elements
such as capacity
building, enforcement,
monitoring.
It is important to continually assess
policies and programmes so as
to keep up to date with technology
developments.
Key
Policies
Regulation is essential
to exclude the worst
performing equipment
and practices from the
market, to drive average
efficiency levels up, and to
set rules for measurement
of performance.
Incentives make efficient
options more attractive and
speed up the upgrade and
replacement of appliances,
buildings and vehicles.
They also encourage the
use of new technologies
and practices.
Ensuring that the
resources are
in place to put
policies into action.
21-22 May 2024, Nairobi
Co-hosted by
Dr Fatih Birol and Davis Chirchir, Minister of Energy and Petroleum, Kenya
Opened by President of Kenya William Ruto
The key moment in 2024 to drive momentum towards the goal of doubling efficiency
progress.
The IEA 9th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency
Unprecedented expansion of renewables driven by solar PV
Declining prices and faster adaption of rooftop systems push PV forecast up. Wind forecast outside of China is less optimistic
due to higher costs and slow permitting. RE capacity for hydrogen growth only account for 7% of announced projects
Renewables capacity growth by technology
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2011-2016 2017-2022 2023-2028
GW
Renewable
capacity for H2
Others
Hydropower
Wind
PV-distributed
PV-utility
% of PV
Policies accelerate renewable deployment everywhere
China, EU, US and India account for almost 85% of global expansion but renewables expansion rapidly catches up
also in other parts of the world. For instance, growth in MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa matching ASEAN levels.
Renewables capacity growth by country
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
China
GW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011-2016 2017-2022 2023-2028
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000
GW
Tripling of RE capacity by 2030 is within reach but more effort is needed
Massive renewables capacity growth is led by steadily cheaper solar PV, while wind and hydropower’s accelerated
expansion is challenged by permitting, grid integration, social acceptance and financing issues
Cumulative renewable capacity
2022 total installed
renewable capacity
2.5 x capacity in 2022
3 x capacity in 2022
2030
tripling
gap
2023-2030 tripling target
2023-2030 global renewable
capacity growth in the main case
Accelerated
case
additional
2.8 x capacity in 2022
G20 could account for 90% of global renewables growth through 2028
G20 countries will play a crucial role in achieving the global tripling target. However, a much faster deployment rate is
needed in many developing countries, challenged with high financing costs and poor infrastructure
Cumulative renewable electricity capacity in the IEA accelerated case and 2030 tripling goal
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
tripling
GW
Rest of the world G20 G7
Tracking and assisting country progress towards the global tripling pledge
• A dynamic web-based tool
• Currently covering almost 60 countries
and 13 regions / country groups
• Main objectives:
1. Track country-level progress of renewable capacity
growth through IEA historical and forecast data
2. Identify policy and implementation gaps between
main and accelerated case and provide targeted
policy advice to countries
3. Assist interested countries in setting domestic 2030
renewables capacity targets
4. Contribute to the NDC update process through data
and policy advice ahead of COP30
Page 12
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.
Thank you

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CCXG global forum, April 2024, Brian Motherway and Paolo Frankl

  • 1. Page 1 Doubling global progress on energy efficiency and tripling renewable energy capacity CCXG Global Forum, 4 April 2024 Dr. Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division Dr. Brian Motherway, Head of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Inclusive Transitions
  • 2. Doubling offers substantial rewards IEA has led the call for a global target to double energy efficiency progress this decade
  • 3. Achieving the doubling goal requires action across sectors Key actions include fuel switching, including electrification; improving the technical efficiency of products and buildings; and avoided demand through behaviour change and materials efficiency Actions contributing to a doubling in the rate of annual primary energy intensity improvements in the NZE Scenario 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2022 Clean cooking Technical efficiency Avoided demand 2030 NZE Power Buildings Transport Industry Electrification and renewables Fuel switching Source: IEA (2023), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach: 2023 Update.
  • 4. The required policies also already exist Governments would achieve doubling if they adopted policies that matched • Lighting standards in South Africa • Building codes in Tunisia • Air conditioner regulations in China • Car fuel economy standards in the United States • Electric motor regulations in the European Union • Policies for heavy industry in India …as a package of policies, covering all key sectors, with a strong focus on policy implementation and enforcement.
  • 5. In all sectors the greatest efficiency gains are achieved by a package of policies that combine three main types of mechanisms: Regulation , information and incentives . Careful design and implementation will deliver efficiency’s full potential to enhance energy security, create jobs, increase living standards, cut energy bills and reduce emissions. Policies are more effective when they are set in the context of clear strategies and targets. Implementation is as important as policy design. Targets Essential elements Policy Packages for Energy Efficiency Information helps people make more efficient choices in what they buy and how they use energy. Address vital elements such as capacity building, enforcement, monitoring. It is important to continually assess policies and programmes so as to keep up to date with technology developments. Key Policies Regulation is essential to exclude the worst performing equipment and practices from the market, to drive average efficiency levels up, and to set rules for measurement of performance. Incentives make efficient options more attractive and speed up the upgrade and replacement of appliances, buildings and vehicles. They also encourage the use of new technologies and practices. Ensuring that the resources are in place to put policies into action.
  • 6. 21-22 May 2024, Nairobi Co-hosted by Dr Fatih Birol and Davis Chirchir, Minister of Energy and Petroleum, Kenya Opened by President of Kenya William Ruto The key moment in 2024 to drive momentum towards the goal of doubling efficiency progress. The IEA 9th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency
  • 7. Unprecedented expansion of renewables driven by solar PV Declining prices and faster adaption of rooftop systems push PV forecast up. Wind forecast outside of China is less optimistic due to higher costs and slow permitting. RE capacity for hydrogen growth only account for 7% of announced projects Renewables capacity growth by technology 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 2011-2016 2017-2022 2023-2028 GW Renewable capacity for H2 Others Hydropower Wind PV-distributed PV-utility % of PV
  • 8. Policies accelerate renewable deployment everywhere China, EU, US and India account for almost 85% of global expansion but renewables expansion rapidly catches up also in other parts of the world. For instance, growth in MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa matching ASEAN levels. Renewables capacity growth by country 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 China GW 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011-2016 2017-2022 2023-2028
  • 9. 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 GW Tripling of RE capacity by 2030 is within reach but more effort is needed Massive renewables capacity growth is led by steadily cheaper solar PV, while wind and hydropower’s accelerated expansion is challenged by permitting, grid integration, social acceptance and financing issues Cumulative renewable capacity 2022 total installed renewable capacity 2.5 x capacity in 2022 3 x capacity in 2022 2030 tripling gap 2023-2030 tripling target 2023-2030 global renewable capacity growth in the main case Accelerated case additional 2.8 x capacity in 2022
  • 10. G20 could account for 90% of global renewables growth through 2028 G20 countries will play a crucial role in achieving the global tripling target. However, a much faster deployment rate is needed in many developing countries, challenged with high financing costs and poor infrastructure Cumulative renewable electricity capacity in the IEA accelerated case and 2030 tripling goal 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 tripling GW Rest of the world G20 G7
  • 11. Tracking and assisting country progress towards the global tripling pledge • A dynamic web-based tool • Currently covering almost 60 countries and 13 regions / country groups • Main objectives: 1. Track country-level progress of renewable capacity growth through IEA historical and forecast data 2. Identify policy and implementation gaps between main and accelerated case and provide targeted policy advice to countries 3. Assist interested countries in setting domestic 2030 renewables capacity targets 4. Contribute to the NDC update process through data and policy advice ahead of COP30
  • 12. Page 12 IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0. Thank you