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Prof. Carlota Perez
Cambridge and Sussex Universities, U.K.
and Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia
Human Habitat 2010 Lecture Series
18th October 2010 - Lisbon
Building a sustainable
global golden age
for overcoming the crisis
The current crisis
is a problem
originated in the financial side
of the economy…
IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE
MID-WAY ALONG
EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION
…with a solution
on the production side
What worked before will not work from now on
BECAUSE IN MARKET ECONOMIES
TECHNICAL CHANGE OCCURS BY REVOLUTIONS
Capitalism experiences pendular swings
about every three decades
THE MAJOR BUBBLE COLLAPSE
MARKS THE SWING OF THE PENDULUM
To a “golden age”
under the control
of PRODUCTION
aided by an active government
in order to fully deploy
the installed potential
From a “gilded age”
under the control
of FINANCE
with unfettered free markets
in order to install
the technological revolution
And each drives a GREAT SURGE OF DEVELOPMENT
and shapes innovation for half a century or more
FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 240 YEARS
The „Industrial Revolution‟ (machines, factories and canals)1771
Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways1829
Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering (electrical, chemical, civil, naval)1875
Age of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production1908
Age of Information Technology and Telecommunications1971
Age of Biotech, Bioelectronics, Nanotech and new materials?20??
Britain
Britain
Germany
USA
vs. Britain
USA
???
USA
Eachbeginsinacorecountryandspreadsacrosstheworld
A massive change in wealth creating potential
Why call them revolutions?
TRANSFORMING THE OPPORTUNITY SPACE AND
THE WAYS OF LIVING, WORKING AND COMMUNICATING
A powerful cluster
of new dynamic industries
and infrastructures
with increasing productivity
and decreasing costs
Explosive
growth
and structural
change
New generic technologies,
infrastructures and
organisational principles
for modernising
the existing industries too
A quantum
jump in
innovation and
productivity
for all
NEW INDUSTRIES and NEW PARADIGM FOR ALL
Because they transform the whole economy!
Continuous improvementStable routines
Human capitalHuman resources
Flexible / adaptable strategiesFixed plans
GlobalisationInternationalisation
Highly segmented dynamic marketsThree tier stable markets
Open interactive networks / local and globalClosed pyramids
Flexible/adaptable productionMass production processes
Environment as challenge and guideNo environmental concern
Innovative learning organisationsStatic Tayloristic organizations
Value network partnersSuppliers and clients
Modernisation and rejuvenation of all sectors
A radical change in managerial “common sense”
brought on by a different set of enabling technologies
AN IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION
GLOBALISATION
IS INEVITABLE WITH THE INTERNET
BUT…
…it is not about the end of national states
but about global companies
choosing what to do and where to do it
on a highly differentiated global space
Each territory defines its role
by choosing (or by not choosing)
a specialisation strategy
ANOTHER CLARIFICATION:
THE HYPERSEGMENTATION
OF MARKETS
(or the so-called long-tail)…
…is what facilitates the multiple specialisations
and re-specialisations
of companies and territories
Once there are infinite niches
in each product space
and systems for handling them
by transport and distribution systems
only lack of imagination
stands in the way of success
THE UNIVERSE OF THE PROFITABLE
IS VASTLY ENLARGED BY ICT
DEPLOYMENT (20-30 years)INSTALLATION (20-30 years)
Financial
bubble
THAT EACH GREAT SURGE GOES THROUGH TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS
It is due to resistance and difficulty in assimilating such major paradigm shifts
We are here Next
big-bang
Time
Degreeofdiffusionofthenewtechnologicalpotential
big-bang
“Creative destruction”
Battle of the new
paradigm
against the old
Concentration of
investment
in new-tech
Income
polarisation
LED BY
FINANCIAL CAPITAL
INSTALLATION (20-30 years)
Financial
bubble
“Creative
construction”
Use of
new paradigm
for innovation and
growth
across all sectors
Spreading
of social benefits
LED BY
PRODUCTION CAPITAL
DEPLOYMENT (20-30 years)
Recessions,institutionalchangeandroleshift
Turning
Point
Next
big-bang
From irruption
to bubble
collapse
From “golden age”
to maturity
FINANCIAL
CAPITAL
PRODUCTION
CAPITAL
Why this pattern? Why the role switch?
FIXED AND
KNOWLEDGE-BOUND
Long-term bias
FLEXIBLE
AND MOBILE
Short-term bias
Financial capital
can massively redirect resources
and “force”
new paradigm diffusion
Production capital is better
for carrying growth
and expansion
within an established paradigm
THE MARKET ECONOMY
HAS TWO DIFFERENT AND COMPLEMENTARY AGENTS
The shift from financial mania and collapse to Golden Ages
is enabled by regulation and policies to shape and widen markets
THE HISTORICAL RECORD
Bubble prosperities, recessions and golden ages
INSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIODTURNING
POINT
Bubbles of
first globalisation
Belle Époque (Europe)
“Progressive Era” (USA)1890–95
Railway mania
The Victorian
Boom1848–50
Canal mania
The Great
British leap1793–97
Internet mania
and financial casino
Global Sustainable
”Golden Age”?
2007
/08
-???
The roaring
twenties
Post-war
Golden age
Europe
1929–33
USA
1929–43
1771
Britain
1829
Britain
1875
Britain / USA
Germany
1908
USA
1971
USA
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
GREAT
SURGE “Gilded Age” prosperity Maturity“Golden Age” prosperityCollapse &
Recessions
ONE
Technological innovation
in ICT
The INTERNET MANIA
in the 1990s
NASDAQ collapse
in 2000
TWO
Financial innovation
with ICT
The EASY CREDIT BOOM
in the 2000s
FINANCIAL MELTDOWN
in 2007-08
Understanding this is crucial
for identifying the nature, the consequences
and the solution of the current crisis
A unique feature of our time
is that the mid-surge bubble happened in two stages
WE ARE AT THE TURNING POINT
The length of the process depends on the social and political forces
The last time around it took over a decade and a major war
There are three tasks for governments after the major crash:
DONE… even overdone
This time global finance needs
both national redesign and
a global regulatory “floor”
STILL ON THE DRAWING BOARD
RARELY BEING CONSIDERED
AS SUCH
But recovery will be very difficult
without it
Intensive therapy
for finance1
Redesign of regulation
and financial architecture2
Enable a
STRUCTURAL SHIFT
in the real economy
3
THE UNIQUE FEATURE
OF THE PREVIOUS TURNING POINT
Recessions and depressions
that lasted 13 years!
Economists resisted Keynes
as anti-free markets
Business resisted Roosevelt’s New Deal
as communism
It took WWII as “dress rehearsal”
of industry-government collaboration
for market expansion
The structural shift
cannot happen without policy intervention
to tilt the playing field
What is this structural shift about?
What are its consequences?
What are its requirements for action
The second half
spreads innovation
across the board
to reap the full
economic and social
benefits
The first half
concentrates innovation
to set up
the new infrastructure
and to let markets
pick the winners
TWO LEVELS OF DIFFUSION
OF EACH TECHNOLOGICAL POTENTIAL
Moving from laissez faire
to the active come-back of the State
Passing control of investment
from financial to production capital
Shifting from supply-push to demand-pull
in investment and innovation
Moving from individualist focus
to collective interests
SETTING UP A WIN-WIN STRATEGY
BETWEEN BUSINESS AND SOCIETY
THE ELEMENTS OF ACTION
FOR THE STRUCTURAL SHIFT
AND THIS TIME
IN A GLOBALISED ECONOMY
Different periods: different role of the State
Installation
THE “GILDED AGE”
Deployment
THE “GOLDEN AGE”
Recessions,institutionalrecompositionandchangeover
The unrestrained market does it all
THE BAD:
•Skewed growth; polarised incomes
•Primacy of paper values over real ones
•Greed, corruption, short-termism
•Breakdown of collective values
PROMOTE LONG TERM GROWTH
•Regulate to restrain financial excesses
•Avoid monopolies; facilitate oligopolies
•Restore real values over paper ones
•Favour long-term investment in production
•Regulate and support innovation
in adequate “demand pull” directions
•Facilitate dense fabric of SMEs & SKIES
Intelligent come-back of the State
INSTABILITY AND EXCLUSION STABILITY AND INCLUSION
THE GOOD:
•Revive wealth creation
•Install the new industries
•Reward the innovators
•Overinvest in infrastructures
•Select the leaders
RE-ESTABLISH SOCIAL COHESION
•Income distribution
•Social safety nets
•Expansion and stability of demand
•Restoring collective values
A SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH AND INNOVATION
“Gilded Age” Installation
SUPPLY PUSH
“Golden Age” Deployment
DEMAND PULL
Recessions,institutionalrecompositionandchangeover
CONTEXT
Mature industries
are technologically exhausted
their markets are saturated
The old economy stagnates
The new technologies are only incipient
CONTEXT
The new engines of growth are ready
The new infrastructure widens and deepens
market access
The old industries are rejuvenated
The new paradigm has been learned
A huge potential for growth is installed
TIMES OF EXPERIMENT
AND TURBULENCE
TIMES OF BUILD-OUT
AND HARMONIOUS GROWTH
SOURCE OF DYNAMISM?
Finance for massive investment
in new technologies,
industries and infrastructures
competing to select
new engines of growth
and to rejuvenate the rest
SOURCE OF DYNAMISM?
Expansion of demand
(public and private)
and reshaping of its profile
(direct or indirect income redistribution)
to enable production growth
and constant innovation
FINANCE
in a
facilitating
service
role
A SHIFT IN THE DRIVERS OF INNOVATION
THE STATE
in a
facilitating
service
role
During deployment innovation in production depends on
EFFECTIVE INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY INNOVATION
A vast free market experiment
The full flourishing
of the installed potential
PRODUCTION
and
THE STATE
as drivers
and innovators
DEPLOYMENT = demand- pull
FINANCE
and
THE NEW
ENTREPRENEURS
as drivers
and innovators
INSTALLATION = supply- push
Age of Steam, Coal,
Iron and Railways
1850s-1860s
Urban, industry-based
VICTORIAN LIVING in Britain
DEPLOYMENT PERIOD LIFESTYLE
Each style became “the good life” redefining people‟s desires
and guiding innovation trajectories
Age of Steel and
Heavy Engineering
1890s-1910s
Urban, cosmopolitan lifestyle of
THE BELLE EPOQUE in Europe
Age of the Automobile,
oil and Mass Production 1950s-1960s
Suburban, energy-intensive
AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE
2010s-20??s
Will the developed and emerging
countries develop a variety
of ICT-intensive and “glocal”
SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES?
Age of global ICT
EACH GREAT SURGE HAS BROUGHT A CHANGE IN LIFESTYLES
with new life-shaping goods and services at „affordable‟ prices
An example: The emergence of the „American Way of Life‟
as the paradigm shift from the Belle Époque…
Refrigerators and central heatingIce boxes and coal stoves
Doing housework with electrical equipmentDoing housework by hand
Preference for disposable plastics of all sortsPaper, cardboard, wood and glass packaging
Suburban living separate from workUrban or country living and working
Mass media, radio, movies and televisionLocal newspapers, posters, theaters, parties
Automobiles, buses, trucks,
airplanes and motorcycles
Trains, horses, carriages, stage coaches,
ships and bicycles
Synthetic materialsNatural materials (cotton, wool, leather, silk..)
Refrigerated, frozen or preserved food
bought periodically in supermarkets
Fresh food bought daily
from specialized suppliers
FROM ENERGY-SCARCE LIVING
Energy is expensive and often inaccessible
TO ENERGY-INTENSIVE HOMES AND MOBILITY
Energy is cheap and its availability unlimited
…all strongly aided by advertising, business strategies
and government policies
THE TECHNOLOGICAL POTENTIAL
changes the relative cost structure and marks the direction of change
It is a huge opportunity space for innovation, growth
and radical changes in lifestyles
FROM THE LOGIC
OF CHEAP ENERGY (oil)
for transport, electricity,
synthetic materials, etc.
TO THE LOGIC
OF CHEAP INFORMATION
its processing, transmission
and productive use
Preference
for services
and intangible value
Huge potential for savings
in energy and materials
Preference
for tangible products
and disposability
Unthinking use
of energy and materials
Unavoidable
environmental destruction
Capacity for
environmental friendliness
The techno-economic paradigm shift happening since the 1970s-80s
YET, THE NEW PARADIGM IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE OLD
WHY? Because in the crucial 1990s we had cheap oil and cheap Asian labour
which favoured the stretching of the old marketing and consumption patterns
Mass production disposability and high use of energy and materials are still with us
An automobile in 1898
It‟s just like the first automobiles
that began looking like horse driven carriages
Reproduction: L.De Vries. 1972
TO CONTINUE ON THIS ROUTE WE WOULD NEED SEVEN PLANETS!
CHANGE IN THE ECONOMICS OF THE PRODUCTION,
TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION OF TANGIBLE GOODS
Optimal relocation and geographic re-specialisation of physical production
Gradual redesign of the consumption patterns for the “good life”
Rising prices of oil
and raw materials
Rising packaging and
freight costs
Visible effects of
increasing global
warming
Rising climatic risk
CHANGE
IN BUSINESS
STRATEGIES
CHANGE
IN GOVERNMENT
POLICIES
THE UNAVOIDABLE PATH OF THE CURRENT GLOBALISATION PATTERN
Firm and intelligent
policy action, business strategies
and social decisions
can take us there!
WHY WAIT
UNTIL THE PLANET FORCES US
TO CHANGE COURSE?
AND IT IS PROBABLY
THE ONLY WAY
OUT OF RECESSION
Technologically
feasible
Socially
acceptable
Economically
profitable
TECHNOLOGY ONLY DEFINES THE SPACE OF THE FEASIBLE
The factors defining the space of the acceptable and the profitable
change over time
… AND ARE ALSO CHANGEABLE!
THE SUPPLY
opportunity space
THE DEMAND
opportunity space
The range
of the technologically feasible
together with
the capabilities
to make it happen
The range of the
economically profitable
and socially acceptable
as defined --and modified--
by policy and social
or other factors
THE BETTER THE MATCH
BETWEEN THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY SPACES
THE MORE DYNAMIC THE ECONOMY
TWO COMPLEMENTARY OPPORTUNITY SPACES
FOR INNOVATION
THE ELEMENTS OF THE DEMAND OPPORTUNITY SPACE
Sources of
DEMAND
DIRECTIONALITY
Sources of
DEMAND
VOLUME
Supply
opportunity
space
The coherence and synergy among the elements
generates self-reinforcing loops
ENABLERS
New paradigm
Generic technologies
Infrastructures
Relative cost structure
HOW WAS
THE PREVIOUS
GOLDEN AGE
UNLEASHED?
?
Creating a dynamic national opportunity space
for deploying the potential of mass production
THE DEMAND OPPORTUNITY SPACE
THAT SHAPED THE POST WAR GOLDEN AGE
DEMAND VOLUME,
PROFILE
AND TRENDS
Welfare State
Labour unions
Public procurement
Credit systemSPECIFIC
DEMAND
AS DIRECTION
FOR INNOVATION
Suburbanisation
Post-war
reconstruction
Cold war
Cheap oil
and materials
Universal electricity
Road and airway
network
INNOVATION
ENABLERS
FOR MASS
PRODUCTION
The various elements were provided in different proportions
in each “First World” country
A POSITIVE-SUM GAME
THAT ACHIEVED
THE GREATEST BOOM
IN HISTORY
Now we are facing
a global economy
CAN A BOOM
BE UNLEASHED AGAIN?
The new global
positive-sum
game
ICT
“GREEN”
FULL
GLOBAL
DEVELOPMENT
Full internet access
at low cost
is equivalent
to electrification
and suburbanisation
in facilitating demand
(and, this time,
also education)
Revamping
transport, energy,
products and production systems
to make them sustainable
is equivalent to
post-war reconstruction
and suburbanisation
Incorporating
successive new millions
into sustainable
consumption patterns
is equivalent to the Welfare State
and government procurement
in terms of demand creation
And the elements are interconnected
ICT
“GREEN”
FULL
GLOBAL
DEVELOPMENT
But we need policy consensus
involving government, business and society
Internet access is
the social
and geographic frontier
of the global market
ICTs are the main
enabling instruments
of sustainability
Only with sustainable
production and consumption patterns
Is globalisation possible
“GREEN” is not only about
saving the planet
It is about saving the economy
and having a high (but different)
quality of life
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
is not only
a humanitarian goal
it is about healthy growth,
markets and employment for all
• Natural vs. synthetic
• Minimalist design
• „Gourmet‟ and organic food
• Exercise for well being
• Small vs. big
• Multipurpose products
• Working from home
• Solar power as luxurious
as well as electric cars
• Intense Internet use
Part of the paradigm shift
is happening
among sophisticated
consumers
There is still
a long way to go
THE CHANGE IN PREFERENCES BEGINS AT THE TOP OF THE INCOME SCALE
AND SPREADS BY IMITATION …AND AFFORDABILITY
• Durability
• Very high quality vs. quantity
• Reparability and upgradability
• Anti-waste, pro-recycling
• Low carbon footprint
• Customised vs. standard
• Services vs. tangible products
• Active & creative “prosumer”
vs. passive consumer
• Etc. etc.
THE NEW LUXURY LIFE WOULD INCREASE SATISFACTION
WHILE MAXIMISING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF RESOURCES
But the change will not come
by guilt, fear or obligation
But by desire and aspiration
“GREEN”
HAS TO BECOME
FASHIONABLE!
THE QUESTION IS HOW TO GO
FROM AN ENLIGHTENED MINORITY
(by education, consciousness or wealth)
TO THE GREAT MAJORITIES
The new green
luxury life pattern
becomes fashionable
Advertising and
company strategies
and lobbying
go in a green direction
However it starts, the process goes through
multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops
Government
tilts the playing field
strongly in
favour of green
Setting up the framework for a sustainable global golden age
THE ACTORS
Government
Business
Civil society (especially
NGOs)
Universities
Media
THE MEANS
Building a widespread consensus
Innovative policies
to change market conditions
A tilted playing field on a global scale
THE GOAL
A “green economy”
A global
“man-on-the-moon”
project
To be effective, the changes and the policies must be clear, reliable,
enforceable, long-term and commanding widespread agreement
THE LEVELS
Global
National
Regional
Local
UTOPIAN OR REALISTIC?
It sounded utopian to say
in mid-1930s DEPRESSION:
Blue collar workers will have
lifetime jobs and
fully equipped suburban houses
with a car at the door
But it was realistic:
Increasing wages created
many more millions of consumers
for mass production and sustained growth
…or in the late 1960s:
Some of the values
of the hippie movement
[back to natural materials,
organic food, etc.]
will become the luxury norms
Innovations in natural textile fibres
have transformed the world of fashion
Innovation in distribution logistics
have made organic foods the premium segment
in supermarkets
Shifts in consumption patterns shift profit-making opportunities
Most colonies
will gain independence
Rising middle classes in the developing world
adopted the “American Way of Life”
widening world markets for mass production
THE TECHNOLOGICAL STAGE
IS SET TODAY
FOR THE GLOBAL GOLDEN AGE
OF THE 21st CENTURY
It is up to business, government and society
to agree on the convergent actions
for making it a reality
Will it be a success or a wasted opportunity?
WE SHALL ALL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE OUTCOME

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Carlota Perez - Human Habitat 2010 - 18 October 2010

  • 1. Prof. Carlota Perez Cambridge and Sussex Universities, U.K. and Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia Human Habitat 2010 Lecture Series 18th October 2010 - Lisbon Building a sustainable global golden age for overcoming the crisis
  • 2. The current crisis is a problem originated in the financial side of the economy… IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE MID-WAY ALONG EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION …with a solution on the production side
  • 3. What worked before will not work from now on BECAUSE IN MARKET ECONOMIES TECHNICAL CHANGE OCCURS BY REVOLUTIONS Capitalism experiences pendular swings about every three decades THE MAJOR BUBBLE COLLAPSE MARKS THE SWING OF THE PENDULUM To a “golden age” under the control of PRODUCTION aided by an active government in order to fully deploy the installed potential From a “gilded age” under the control of FINANCE with unfettered free markets in order to install the technological revolution
  • 4. And each drives a GREAT SURGE OF DEVELOPMENT and shapes innovation for half a century or more FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 240 YEARS The „Industrial Revolution‟ (machines, factories and canals)1771 Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways1829 Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering (electrical, chemical, civil, naval)1875 Age of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production1908 Age of Information Technology and Telecommunications1971 Age of Biotech, Bioelectronics, Nanotech and new materials?20?? Britain Britain Germany USA vs. Britain USA ??? USA Eachbeginsinacorecountryandspreadsacrosstheworld
  • 5. A massive change in wealth creating potential Why call them revolutions? TRANSFORMING THE OPPORTUNITY SPACE AND THE WAYS OF LIVING, WORKING AND COMMUNICATING A powerful cluster of new dynamic industries and infrastructures with increasing productivity and decreasing costs Explosive growth and structural change New generic technologies, infrastructures and organisational principles for modernising the existing industries too A quantum jump in innovation and productivity for all NEW INDUSTRIES and NEW PARADIGM FOR ALL Because they transform the whole economy!
  • 6. Continuous improvementStable routines Human capitalHuman resources Flexible / adaptable strategiesFixed plans GlobalisationInternationalisation Highly segmented dynamic marketsThree tier stable markets Open interactive networks / local and globalClosed pyramids Flexible/adaptable productionMass production processes Environment as challenge and guideNo environmental concern Innovative learning organisationsStatic Tayloristic organizations Value network partnersSuppliers and clients Modernisation and rejuvenation of all sectors A radical change in managerial “common sense” brought on by a different set of enabling technologies
  • 7. AN IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION GLOBALISATION IS INEVITABLE WITH THE INTERNET BUT… …it is not about the end of national states but about global companies choosing what to do and where to do it on a highly differentiated global space Each territory defines its role by choosing (or by not choosing) a specialisation strategy
  • 8. ANOTHER CLARIFICATION: THE HYPERSEGMENTATION OF MARKETS (or the so-called long-tail)… …is what facilitates the multiple specialisations and re-specialisations of companies and territories Once there are infinite niches in each product space and systems for handling them by transport and distribution systems only lack of imagination stands in the way of success THE UNIVERSE OF THE PROFITABLE IS VASTLY ENLARGED BY ICT
  • 9. DEPLOYMENT (20-30 years)INSTALLATION (20-30 years) Financial bubble THAT EACH GREAT SURGE GOES THROUGH TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS It is due to resistance and difficulty in assimilating such major paradigm shifts We are here Next big-bang Time Degreeofdiffusionofthenewtechnologicalpotential big-bang “Creative destruction” Battle of the new paradigm against the old Concentration of investment in new-tech Income polarisation LED BY FINANCIAL CAPITAL INSTALLATION (20-30 years) Financial bubble “Creative construction” Use of new paradigm for innovation and growth across all sectors Spreading of social benefits LED BY PRODUCTION CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT (20-30 years) Recessions,institutionalchangeandroleshift Turning Point Next big-bang From irruption to bubble collapse From “golden age” to maturity
  • 10. FINANCIAL CAPITAL PRODUCTION CAPITAL Why this pattern? Why the role switch? FIXED AND KNOWLEDGE-BOUND Long-term bias FLEXIBLE AND MOBILE Short-term bias Financial capital can massively redirect resources and “force” new paradigm diffusion Production capital is better for carrying growth and expansion within an established paradigm THE MARKET ECONOMY HAS TWO DIFFERENT AND COMPLEMENTARY AGENTS
  • 11. The shift from financial mania and collapse to Golden Ages is enabled by regulation and policies to shape and widen markets THE HISTORICAL RECORD Bubble prosperities, recessions and golden ages INSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIODTURNING POINT Bubbles of first globalisation Belle Époque (Europe) “Progressive Era” (USA)1890–95 Railway mania The Victorian Boom1848–50 Canal mania The Great British leap1793–97 Internet mania and financial casino Global Sustainable ”Golden Age”? 2007 /08 -??? The roaring twenties Post-war Golden age Europe 1929–33 USA 1929–43 1771 Britain 1829 Britain 1875 Britain / USA Germany 1908 USA 1971 USA 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th GREAT SURGE “Gilded Age” prosperity Maturity“Golden Age” prosperityCollapse & Recessions
  • 12. ONE Technological innovation in ICT The INTERNET MANIA in the 1990s NASDAQ collapse in 2000 TWO Financial innovation with ICT The EASY CREDIT BOOM in the 2000s FINANCIAL MELTDOWN in 2007-08 Understanding this is crucial for identifying the nature, the consequences and the solution of the current crisis A unique feature of our time is that the mid-surge bubble happened in two stages
  • 13. WE ARE AT THE TURNING POINT The length of the process depends on the social and political forces The last time around it took over a decade and a major war There are three tasks for governments after the major crash: DONE… even overdone This time global finance needs both national redesign and a global regulatory “floor” STILL ON THE DRAWING BOARD RARELY BEING CONSIDERED AS SUCH But recovery will be very difficult without it Intensive therapy for finance1 Redesign of regulation and financial architecture2 Enable a STRUCTURAL SHIFT in the real economy 3
  • 14. THE UNIQUE FEATURE OF THE PREVIOUS TURNING POINT Recessions and depressions that lasted 13 years! Economists resisted Keynes as anti-free markets Business resisted Roosevelt’s New Deal as communism It took WWII as “dress rehearsal” of industry-government collaboration for market expansion The structural shift cannot happen without policy intervention to tilt the playing field
  • 15. What is this structural shift about? What are its consequences? What are its requirements for action
  • 16. The second half spreads innovation across the board to reap the full economic and social benefits The first half concentrates innovation to set up the new infrastructure and to let markets pick the winners TWO LEVELS OF DIFFUSION OF EACH TECHNOLOGICAL POTENTIAL
  • 17. Moving from laissez faire to the active come-back of the State Passing control of investment from financial to production capital Shifting from supply-push to demand-pull in investment and innovation Moving from individualist focus to collective interests SETTING UP A WIN-WIN STRATEGY BETWEEN BUSINESS AND SOCIETY THE ELEMENTS OF ACTION FOR THE STRUCTURAL SHIFT AND THIS TIME IN A GLOBALISED ECONOMY
  • 18. Different periods: different role of the State Installation THE “GILDED AGE” Deployment THE “GOLDEN AGE” Recessions,institutionalrecompositionandchangeover The unrestrained market does it all THE BAD: •Skewed growth; polarised incomes •Primacy of paper values over real ones •Greed, corruption, short-termism •Breakdown of collective values PROMOTE LONG TERM GROWTH •Regulate to restrain financial excesses •Avoid monopolies; facilitate oligopolies •Restore real values over paper ones •Favour long-term investment in production •Regulate and support innovation in adequate “demand pull” directions •Facilitate dense fabric of SMEs & SKIES Intelligent come-back of the State INSTABILITY AND EXCLUSION STABILITY AND INCLUSION THE GOOD: •Revive wealth creation •Install the new industries •Reward the innovators •Overinvest in infrastructures •Select the leaders RE-ESTABLISH SOCIAL COHESION •Income distribution •Social safety nets •Expansion and stability of demand •Restoring collective values
  • 19. A SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH AND INNOVATION “Gilded Age” Installation SUPPLY PUSH “Golden Age” Deployment DEMAND PULL Recessions,institutionalrecompositionandchangeover CONTEXT Mature industries are technologically exhausted their markets are saturated The old economy stagnates The new technologies are only incipient CONTEXT The new engines of growth are ready The new infrastructure widens and deepens market access The old industries are rejuvenated The new paradigm has been learned A huge potential for growth is installed TIMES OF EXPERIMENT AND TURBULENCE TIMES OF BUILD-OUT AND HARMONIOUS GROWTH SOURCE OF DYNAMISM? Finance for massive investment in new technologies, industries and infrastructures competing to select new engines of growth and to rejuvenate the rest SOURCE OF DYNAMISM? Expansion of demand (public and private) and reshaping of its profile (direct or indirect income redistribution) to enable production growth and constant innovation
  • 20. FINANCE in a facilitating service role A SHIFT IN THE DRIVERS OF INNOVATION THE STATE in a facilitating service role During deployment innovation in production depends on EFFECTIVE INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY INNOVATION A vast free market experiment The full flourishing of the installed potential PRODUCTION and THE STATE as drivers and innovators DEPLOYMENT = demand- pull FINANCE and THE NEW ENTREPRENEURS as drivers and innovators INSTALLATION = supply- push
  • 21. Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways 1850s-1860s Urban, industry-based VICTORIAN LIVING in Britain DEPLOYMENT PERIOD LIFESTYLE Each style became “the good life” redefining people‟s desires and guiding innovation trajectories Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering 1890s-1910s Urban, cosmopolitan lifestyle of THE BELLE EPOQUE in Europe Age of the Automobile, oil and Mass Production 1950s-1960s Suburban, energy-intensive AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE 2010s-20??s Will the developed and emerging countries develop a variety of ICT-intensive and “glocal” SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES? Age of global ICT EACH GREAT SURGE HAS BROUGHT A CHANGE IN LIFESTYLES with new life-shaping goods and services at „affordable‟ prices
  • 22. An example: The emergence of the „American Way of Life‟ as the paradigm shift from the Belle Époque… Refrigerators and central heatingIce boxes and coal stoves Doing housework with electrical equipmentDoing housework by hand Preference for disposable plastics of all sortsPaper, cardboard, wood and glass packaging Suburban living separate from workUrban or country living and working Mass media, radio, movies and televisionLocal newspapers, posters, theaters, parties Automobiles, buses, trucks, airplanes and motorcycles Trains, horses, carriages, stage coaches, ships and bicycles Synthetic materialsNatural materials (cotton, wool, leather, silk..) Refrigerated, frozen or preserved food bought periodically in supermarkets Fresh food bought daily from specialized suppliers FROM ENERGY-SCARCE LIVING Energy is expensive and often inaccessible TO ENERGY-INTENSIVE HOMES AND MOBILITY Energy is cheap and its availability unlimited …all strongly aided by advertising, business strategies and government policies
  • 23. THE TECHNOLOGICAL POTENTIAL changes the relative cost structure and marks the direction of change It is a huge opportunity space for innovation, growth and radical changes in lifestyles FROM THE LOGIC OF CHEAP ENERGY (oil) for transport, electricity, synthetic materials, etc. TO THE LOGIC OF CHEAP INFORMATION its processing, transmission and productive use Preference for services and intangible value Huge potential for savings in energy and materials Preference for tangible products and disposability Unthinking use of energy and materials Unavoidable environmental destruction Capacity for environmental friendliness The techno-economic paradigm shift happening since the 1970s-80s
  • 24. YET, THE NEW PARADIGM IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE OLD WHY? Because in the crucial 1990s we had cheap oil and cheap Asian labour which favoured the stretching of the old marketing and consumption patterns Mass production disposability and high use of energy and materials are still with us An automobile in 1898 It‟s just like the first automobiles that began looking like horse driven carriages Reproduction: L.De Vries. 1972 TO CONTINUE ON THIS ROUTE WE WOULD NEED SEVEN PLANETS!
  • 25. CHANGE IN THE ECONOMICS OF THE PRODUCTION, TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION OF TANGIBLE GOODS Optimal relocation and geographic re-specialisation of physical production Gradual redesign of the consumption patterns for the “good life” Rising prices of oil and raw materials Rising packaging and freight costs Visible effects of increasing global warming Rising climatic risk CHANGE IN BUSINESS STRATEGIES CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT POLICIES THE UNAVOIDABLE PATH OF THE CURRENT GLOBALISATION PATTERN
  • 26. Firm and intelligent policy action, business strategies and social decisions can take us there! WHY WAIT UNTIL THE PLANET FORCES US TO CHANGE COURSE? AND IT IS PROBABLY THE ONLY WAY OUT OF RECESSION
  • 27. Technologically feasible Socially acceptable Economically profitable TECHNOLOGY ONLY DEFINES THE SPACE OF THE FEASIBLE The factors defining the space of the acceptable and the profitable change over time … AND ARE ALSO CHANGEABLE!
  • 28. THE SUPPLY opportunity space THE DEMAND opportunity space The range of the technologically feasible together with the capabilities to make it happen The range of the economically profitable and socially acceptable as defined --and modified-- by policy and social or other factors THE BETTER THE MATCH BETWEEN THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY SPACES THE MORE DYNAMIC THE ECONOMY TWO COMPLEMENTARY OPPORTUNITY SPACES FOR INNOVATION
  • 29. THE ELEMENTS OF THE DEMAND OPPORTUNITY SPACE Sources of DEMAND DIRECTIONALITY Sources of DEMAND VOLUME Supply opportunity space The coherence and synergy among the elements generates self-reinforcing loops ENABLERS New paradigm Generic technologies Infrastructures Relative cost structure
  • 30. HOW WAS THE PREVIOUS GOLDEN AGE UNLEASHED? ? Creating a dynamic national opportunity space for deploying the potential of mass production
  • 31. THE DEMAND OPPORTUNITY SPACE THAT SHAPED THE POST WAR GOLDEN AGE DEMAND VOLUME, PROFILE AND TRENDS Welfare State Labour unions Public procurement Credit systemSPECIFIC DEMAND AS DIRECTION FOR INNOVATION Suburbanisation Post-war reconstruction Cold war Cheap oil and materials Universal electricity Road and airway network INNOVATION ENABLERS FOR MASS PRODUCTION The various elements were provided in different proportions in each “First World” country
  • 32. A POSITIVE-SUM GAME THAT ACHIEVED THE GREATEST BOOM IN HISTORY Now we are facing a global economy CAN A BOOM BE UNLEASHED AGAIN?
  • 33. The new global positive-sum game ICT “GREEN” FULL GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT Full internet access at low cost is equivalent to electrification and suburbanisation in facilitating demand (and, this time, also education) Revamping transport, energy, products and production systems to make them sustainable is equivalent to post-war reconstruction and suburbanisation Incorporating successive new millions into sustainable consumption patterns is equivalent to the Welfare State and government procurement in terms of demand creation
  • 34. And the elements are interconnected ICT “GREEN” FULL GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT But we need policy consensus involving government, business and society Internet access is the social and geographic frontier of the global market ICTs are the main enabling instruments of sustainability Only with sustainable production and consumption patterns Is globalisation possible
  • 35. “GREEN” is not only about saving the planet It is about saving the economy and having a high (but different) quality of life GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT is not only a humanitarian goal it is about healthy growth, markets and employment for all
  • 36. • Natural vs. synthetic • Minimalist design • „Gourmet‟ and organic food • Exercise for well being • Small vs. big • Multipurpose products • Working from home • Solar power as luxurious as well as electric cars • Intense Internet use Part of the paradigm shift is happening among sophisticated consumers There is still a long way to go THE CHANGE IN PREFERENCES BEGINS AT THE TOP OF THE INCOME SCALE AND SPREADS BY IMITATION …AND AFFORDABILITY • Durability • Very high quality vs. quantity • Reparability and upgradability • Anti-waste, pro-recycling • Low carbon footprint • Customised vs. standard • Services vs. tangible products • Active & creative “prosumer” vs. passive consumer • Etc. etc. THE NEW LUXURY LIFE WOULD INCREASE SATISFACTION WHILE MAXIMISING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF RESOURCES
  • 37. But the change will not come by guilt, fear or obligation But by desire and aspiration “GREEN” HAS TO BECOME FASHIONABLE!
  • 38. THE QUESTION IS HOW TO GO FROM AN ENLIGHTENED MINORITY (by education, consciousness or wealth) TO THE GREAT MAJORITIES The new green luxury life pattern becomes fashionable Advertising and company strategies and lobbying go in a green direction However it starts, the process goes through multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops Government tilts the playing field strongly in favour of green
  • 39. Setting up the framework for a sustainable global golden age THE ACTORS Government Business Civil society (especially NGOs) Universities Media THE MEANS Building a widespread consensus Innovative policies to change market conditions A tilted playing field on a global scale THE GOAL A “green economy” A global “man-on-the-moon” project To be effective, the changes and the policies must be clear, reliable, enforceable, long-term and commanding widespread agreement THE LEVELS Global National Regional Local
  • 40. UTOPIAN OR REALISTIC? It sounded utopian to say in mid-1930s DEPRESSION: Blue collar workers will have lifetime jobs and fully equipped suburban houses with a car at the door But it was realistic: Increasing wages created many more millions of consumers for mass production and sustained growth …or in the late 1960s: Some of the values of the hippie movement [back to natural materials, organic food, etc.] will become the luxury norms Innovations in natural textile fibres have transformed the world of fashion Innovation in distribution logistics have made organic foods the premium segment in supermarkets Shifts in consumption patterns shift profit-making opportunities Most colonies will gain independence Rising middle classes in the developing world adopted the “American Way of Life” widening world markets for mass production
  • 41. THE TECHNOLOGICAL STAGE IS SET TODAY FOR THE GLOBAL GOLDEN AGE OF THE 21st CENTURY It is up to business, government and society to agree on the convergent actions for making it a reality Will it be a success or a wasted opportunity? WE SHALL ALL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OUTCOME