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Carbon neutral Finland
2035 - impact assessments
of national policies and
measures
Tiina Koljonen & Antti Lehtilä, VTT
Summer 2022 semi-annual ETSAP
meeting, 24th May 2022
24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
Above 90% of Finns consider climate change
as a serious problem
24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
• Launch of the IPCC
AR6 WG3 report on
4th May 2022
received high
interest by the
Finnish media
• Ambitious climate
policy was a key
question in
Finland’s last
parliament
elections in 2019
5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
 Carbon neutral Finland that protects
biodiversity
• Finland will achieve carbon neutrality by 2035
• Finland aims to be the world’s first fossil-free
welfare society
• Strengthening of carbon sinks and stocks in
the short and long-term
 Tax reform for sustainble development
• Reform of energy taxation
• Reform of transport taxation
 Strengthening Finland’s role as a leader in
the circular economy
Programme of Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s
Government 10 December 2019
New medium
term climate
policy plan
New climate
and energy
strategy
Update of
Finland’s
climate act
EU’s FitFor55
proposal and
its impacts for
Finland
Update of
Finland’s
bioeconomy
strategy
Roadmap for
energy tax
reform
Support for the Government in 2021-
2022 with TIMES-VTT
24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
 The Fit for 55 package: EU legislation to cut EU’s net greenhouse
gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990.
 Key areas of action and these have been considered in
national assessments
• greenhouse gas emissions from all economic sectors => quantitative
• greenhouse gas removals by carbon sinks such as forests =>
quantitative
• funding for a just transition => qualitative based on low carbon
roadmaps
• renewable energy => quantitative
• energy efficiency => quantitative
• more alternative fuels and more charging stations for electric vehicles
• energy taxation => quantitative & qualitative
EU’s new climate and energy targets by
2030-2050 defined in the FitFor55 package
24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
Climate Neutral Finland 2035 – Impact
assessments of climate and energy policies
24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
Integrated impact
assessments and
recommendations
Energy security,
social impacts,
RDI needs
Support of
Government in
their budget
negotiations
Sectoral analysis
(industry,
transport,
buildings,
agriculture, etc.)
Quantitative
analysis
Qualitative
analysis Synthesis report
Other reports
Project start
4/2020 11/2021
National and
regional
economic
analysis
Stakeholder workshops:
• Kick off 9/2020
• WEM workshop 2/2021
• WAM workshop 6/2021
Energy system
analysis,
LULUCF
Low Carbon
Roadmaps
Impacts on
natural
environment,
people,
etc.(SOVA)
1st round of quantitative analysis June 2021
2nd round of quantitative analysis August 2021
Final quantitative analysis October-November 2021
5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
Summary of the selected low carbon roadmaps
by national industrial federations
Federation Mitigation potentials
and reduction targets
Reported challenges
and policies required
Fair transition
Energy industries
Technology industries
Chemical industries
Forest industries
Sawn industries
Bioenergy industries
Construction industries
Transport and logistics
Agriculture
Food industries
Commerce
Inputs to the qualitative analysis
Inputs to the quantitative
analysis
Greenhouse gas mitigation pathways With Existing
Measures (WEM) and With Additional Measures (WAM)
5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
WEM WAM
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Total
emissions
balance,
Mt
CO
2
eq.
Other land-
use
Emissions
(including
BECCS)
Forest land
and wood
products
-80 %
-60 %*
-70 %
min. -90%
* GHG mitigation targets in 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050 (compared with 1990 levels) are set in the
new climate act of Finland
24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
 The new nuclear
Fennovoima project
with Rosatom has
been cancelled.
 Russia has cut off
the electricity and
gas exports to
Finland.
 A lot of speculation
on electricity
demand, growth of
wind power, …
Electricity supply will be nearby fossil free
after 2030 but …
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2050
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2010
Electricity
supply,
TWh
2010
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
Grid
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Bio
Peat
Oil / gas
Coal
Nuclear
62%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Renewable
energy
share
in
final
consumption
Eurostat
WEM
WAM
9
 It has been estimated that
the FitFor55 renewable
target for Finland would be
around 60 % in 2030
 WEM includes phase out of
coal by 2029 and 30 %
renewables in road transport
 In WAM, also phase out of
oil in heating by 2030 and
electrification of all the
sectors
The share of renewables from final
energy consumption*
*Based on the EC’s calculation rules
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2050
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2010
Final
energy
consumption,
TWh
2010
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
Other
Electricity
Heat
Other bio
Pulp liquor
Wood
Peat
Gas
Oil
Coal
10
 Estimated FitFor55
energy efficiency target
(by EED) 255 TWh in
2030 will be a
challenge
 In WAM, investments
in fossil free steel
(SSAB) as well as in
blue and green
hydrogen in oil refining
(Neste) have been
considered.
Final energy consumption Below final energy consumption doesn’t
include international aviation, which is
included in the EED
11
 Exogenous fossil
fuel and CO2
prices
 In WAM, GHG
mitigation
targets are set
while in WEM,
investments are
optimised
”market based”
GHG mitigation in WEM and WAM
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2050
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2010
Greenhouse
gas
emissions,
Mt
2010
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
Other GHGs
Other CO2
Transport
CO2
Industrial
sectors CO2
Energy
sector CO2
Energy
sector CO2
12,5 Mt
9,7 Mt
GHG emissions of the effort sharing sector
Transport sector has a domestic target of -50 % GHG reduction
(compared with 2005 level) by 2030, which is fulfilled in WAM
12
2030 Target -50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Effort
sharing
emissions,
Mt
CO
2
eq.
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
WEM
WAM
Waste
management
Agriculture
Other products
and processes
F-gases
Other energy-
related
Space heating
Work machines
Domestic trans-
port excl. air
5,6 Mt
5,2 Mt
FitFor55 target for Finland
5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
 In February 2022, the national
research institutes and
Finland’s Climate Panel were
asked to make a statement of
the Government’s policies.
 All the statements (including
VTT’s) made a conclusion
that additional policies are
required.
Evolution of total GHG emissions with
Government’s decisions (WAM-H) (excl.
LULUCF)
-46.1% (1990)
-57.1% (1990)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse
gas
emissions,
Mt
(CO
2
eq.)
Statistics
WEM
WAM·н
5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
 Realisation of the EU’s
energy tax directive would
have major impact for
Finland (EVDe_1 &
EVDe_2)
• Includes bioenergy tax
• Single energy tax level for
energy consumption
• Tax level based on energy
content and sustainability of
fuels (today we have also
CO2-tax component)
Energy tax roadmap: Comparison of energy
tax models with 4 criteria
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GHG reduction Competitiveness Tax proceeds Energy costs
Compared
to
CurPol
=
100
Electr Hi-Res Indus Tax+ EVDe_1 EVDe_2
Different scale for GHG emissions
5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
 The aim is to double the value
added of the use of natural
resources compared with 2015
level.
 In addition, Circular Material
Use (CMU) rate should be
doubled by 2035 (it was 7% in
2018).
 Most of the modelling is done
with input-output model but
new data is created for the
other approaches as well.
Next steps: better modelling and analysis of
carbon neutral circular economy
Example of bioeconomy scenarios aiming at
increasing value added of Finland’s bioeconomy
Tiina Koljonen
tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi
tel. 050 3599549
@VTTFinland
@TiinaKoljonen
24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious

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Carbon neutral Finland 2035 - impact assessments of national policies and measures

  • 1. Carbon neutral Finland 2035 - impact assessments of national policies and measures Tiina Koljonen & Antti Lehtilä, VTT Summer 2022 semi-annual ETSAP meeting, 24th May 2022 24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious
  • 2. Above 90% of Finns consider climate change as a serious problem 24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious • Launch of the IPCC AR6 WG3 report on 4th May 2022 received high interest by the Finnish media • Ambitious climate policy was a key question in Finland’s last parliament elections in 2019
  • 3. 5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious  Carbon neutral Finland that protects biodiversity • Finland will achieve carbon neutrality by 2035 • Finland aims to be the world’s first fossil-free welfare society • Strengthening of carbon sinks and stocks in the short and long-term  Tax reform for sustainble development • Reform of energy taxation • Reform of transport taxation  Strengthening Finland’s role as a leader in the circular economy Programme of Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Government 10 December 2019 New medium term climate policy plan New climate and energy strategy Update of Finland’s climate act EU’s FitFor55 proposal and its impacts for Finland Update of Finland’s bioeconomy strategy Roadmap for energy tax reform Support for the Government in 2021- 2022 with TIMES-VTT
  • 4. 24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious  The Fit for 55 package: EU legislation to cut EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990.  Key areas of action and these have been considered in national assessments • greenhouse gas emissions from all economic sectors => quantitative • greenhouse gas removals by carbon sinks such as forests => quantitative • funding for a just transition => qualitative based on low carbon roadmaps • renewable energy => quantitative • energy efficiency => quantitative • more alternative fuels and more charging stations for electric vehicles • energy taxation => quantitative & qualitative EU’s new climate and energy targets by 2030-2050 defined in the FitFor55 package
  • 5. 24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious Climate Neutral Finland 2035 – Impact assessments of climate and energy policies 24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious Integrated impact assessments and recommendations Energy security, social impacts, RDI needs Support of Government in their budget negotiations Sectoral analysis (industry, transport, buildings, agriculture, etc.) Quantitative analysis Qualitative analysis Synthesis report Other reports Project start 4/2020 11/2021 National and regional economic analysis Stakeholder workshops: • Kick off 9/2020 • WEM workshop 2/2021 • WAM workshop 6/2021 Energy system analysis, LULUCF Low Carbon Roadmaps Impacts on natural environment, people, etc.(SOVA) 1st round of quantitative analysis June 2021 2nd round of quantitative analysis August 2021 Final quantitative analysis October-November 2021
  • 6. 5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious Summary of the selected low carbon roadmaps by national industrial federations Federation Mitigation potentials and reduction targets Reported challenges and policies required Fair transition Energy industries Technology industries Chemical industries Forest industries Sawn industries Bioenergy industries Construction industries Transport and logistics Agriculture Food industries Commerce Inputs to the qualitative analysis Inputs to the quantitative analysis
  • 7. Greenhouse gas mitigation pathways With Existing Measures (WEM) and With Additional Measures (WAM) 5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious WEM WAM -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total emissions balance, Mt CO 2 eq. Other land- use Emissions (including BECCS) Forest land and wood products -80 % -60 %* -70 % min. -90% * GHG mitigation targets in 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050 (compared with 1990 levels) are set in the new climate act of Finland
  • 8. 24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious  The new nuclear Fennovoima project with Rosatom has been cancelled.  Russia has cut off the electricity and gas exports to Finland.  A lot of speculation on electricity demand, growth of wind power, … Electricity supply will be nearby fossil free after 2030 but … -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2050 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2010 Electricity supply, TWh 2010 WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM Grid Solar Wind Hydro Bio Peat Oil / gas Coal Nuclear
  • 9. 62% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Renewable energy share in final consumption Eurostat WEM WAM 9  It has been estimated that the FitFor55 renewable target for Finland would be around 60 % in 2030  WEM includes phase out of coal by 2029 and 30 % renewables in road transport  In WAM, also phase out of oil in heating by 2030 and electrification of all the sectors The share of renewables from final energy consumption* *Based on the EC’s calculation rules
  • 10. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2050 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2010 Final energy consumption, TWh 2010 WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM Other Electricity Heat Other bio Pulp liquor Wood Peat Gas Oil Coal 10  Estimated FitFor55 energy efficiency target (by EED) 255 TWh in 2030 will be a challenge  In WAM, investments in fossil free steel (SSAB) as well as in blue and green hydrogen in oil refining (Neste) have been considered. Final energy consumption Below final energy consumption doesn’t include international aviation, which is included in the EED
  • 11. 11  Exogenous fossil fuel and CO2 prices  In WAM, GHG mitigation targets are set while in WEM, investments are optimised ”market based” GHG mitigation in WEM and WAM -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2050 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2010 Greenhouse gas emissions, Mt 2010 WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM Other GHGs Other CO2 Transport CO2 Industrial sectors CO2 Energy sector CO2 Energy sector CO2 12,5 Mt 9,7 Mt
  • 12. GHG emissions of the effort sharing sector Transport sector has a domestic target of -50 % GHG reduction (compared with 2005 level) by 2030, which is fulfilled in WAM 12 2030 Target -50% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Effort sharing emissions, Mt CO 2 eq. WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM Waste management Agriculture Other products and processes F-gases Other energy- related Space heating Work machines Domestic trans- port excl. air 5,6 Mt 5,2 Mt FitFor55 target for Finland
  • 13. 5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious  In February 2022, the national research institutes and Finland’s Climate Panel were asked to make a statement of the Government’s policies.  All the statements (including VTT’s) made a conclusion that additional policies are required. Evolution of total GHG emissions with Government’s decisions (WAM-H) (excl. LULUCF) -46.1% (1990) -57.1% (1990) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Greenhouse gas emissions, Mt (CO 2 eq.) Statistics WEM WAM·н
  • 14. 5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious  Realisation of the EU’s energy tax directive would have major impact for Finland (EVDe_1 & EVDe_2) • Includes bioenergy tax • Single energy tax level for energy consumption • Tax level based on energy content and sustainability of fuels (today we have also CO2-tax component) Energy tax roadmap: Comparison of energy tax models with 4 criteria -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 GHG reduction Competitiveness Tax proceeds Energy costs Compared to CurPol = 100 Electr Hi-Res Indus Tax+ EVDe_1 EVDe_2 Different scale for GHG emissions
  • 15. 5/24/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious  The aim is to double the value added of the use of natural resources compared with 2015 level.  In addition, Circular Material Use (CMU) rate should be doubled by 2035 (it was 7% in 2018).  Most of the modelling is done with input-output model but new data is created for the other approaches as well. Next steps: better modelling and analysis of carbon neutral circular economy Example of bioeconomy scenarios aiming at increasing value added of Finland’s bioeconomy
  • 16. Tiina Koljonen tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi tel. 050 3599549 @VTTFinland @TiinaKoljonen 24/05/2022 VTT – beyond the obvious