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Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom: Mastering Cyclical Investing Strategies for Market Success

Jiten Parmar, Co Founder, Aurum Capital, presented in the Bharat Nivesh Forum in Pune on 10 May 2026. Please go through the Disclosure. There is no a buy/sell/hold recommendation. Explore cyclical investing fundamentals, business and market cycles, valuation insights, and real Indian case studies to optimize entry and exit points in stock markets.

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AURUM CAPITAL · APRIL 2026 Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom. The Cyclical Investor's Edge JITEN PARMAR Twitter: @jitenkparmar Email: jiten.parmar@aurumcapital.in
REGULATORY Mandatory Disclosure No SEBI-registered Investment Adviser / Research Analyst? NA Financial interest in subject company(s)? NA Bought the security in the last one month? No Beneficial ownership of ≥ 1% in subject company? No Other material conflict of interest at time of publication? No Compensation from subject company in past 12 months? No Co-managed public offering for subject company in past 12 months? No Compensation for IB / merchant banking / brokerage services? No Compensation for other products/services? No Subject company a client in past 12 months? No Analyst served as officer / director / employee of subject company? No Engaged in market making activity for subject company? No Making any buy/sell/hold recommendation for subject company? Note: As per regulatory requirements, data more than 3 months old has been used in this presentation. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 2 Note: Each and every example, named or un-named, is not a stock recommendation. It’s there for the educational purpose of explaining cycles. Please consult your financial advisor for any advice.
“KEY LEARNING The first step to successful investing is knowing yourself. Your temperament. Your mental fortitude. JITEN PARMAR Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 3
MINDSET Observations & Quotes 01 Pick Your Lane There are different strategies in investing — each may have its merits. Choose the one that works for you. 02 Stay Flexible The successful investor's trait: remove bias, remove rigidity. 03 Ride The Winners When good times come, make it count. Ride your winners and cut your losers. 04 Management Matters The investing bus runs on four wheels — Management Quality, Patience, Discipline and Conviction. 05 Bottom-Up Wins Have a bottom-up approach. Avoid index gazing. 06 Price Always Matters A good stock at a bad price may not be a good investment decision. 07 Behavior > Spreadsheet Investing is more an art than science. Temperament & behavior are the most important qualities of a good investor. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 4
ROADMAP Structure of This Presentation 01 FOUNDATIONS Cyclicality and Value Investing Why all businesses are cyclical, just to varying degrees. 02 TYPES OF CYCLES Business · Market · Economic How each behaves. 03 CASE STUDIES What history teaches us Real Indian companies — retailer, transformer, paint, NBFC, FMCG, IT. 04 VALUATION Why starting price matters How profits and stock returns converge over time. 05 TOOLKIT Cyclical / value investing playbook Process, timing, entry, exit and red flags. 06 MORE CASE STUDIES Cyclical winners and patterns Paper, polyfilm and metal-mining case studies. 07 CHECKLIST Stock evaluation framework What we always look at before we commit capital. 08 PHILOSOPHY Our circle of competence The five themes that define how Aurum invests. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 5
FOUNDATIONS What Do We Mean By 'Cyclical'? Stocks are far more cyclical than people think. Almost every business goes through periods of expansion and contraction — in demand, in margins, in investor enthusiasm. What changes from company to company is only the amplitude of the cycle and the length of the period. Recognizing this — and refusing to treat any one phase as 'normal' — is where the cyclical investor's edge begins. Peak can be peak margins or peak profits in case of business cycles or peak multiples in case of market cycles. And vice versa in case of trough. EVERY BUSINESS LIVES ON THIS CURVE TROUGH best entry PEAK danger zone Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 6
FOUNDATIONS Three Types of Cycles Every stock you own is moving on at least one of these three cycles — sometimes more than one. OUR FOCUS Business Cycles Inside the company itself. TRIGGER Demand-supply mismatch in the company's product or industry. SHOWS UP IN EBITDA margins · Revenue growth · Return ratios. LENGTH Typically 3–8 years per cycle. Can vary per industry. OUR FOCUS Market Cycles Inside investor sentiment. TRIGGER Risk appetite, narrative shifts, liquidity, FII flows. SHOWS UP IN P/E re-rating · Sector rotations · Multiple expansion / compression. LENGTH Highly variable — months to several years. BACKGROUND Economic Cycles The whole economy. TRIGGER GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, credit cycles. SHOWS UP IN Lifts or sinks all boats — though unevenly. LENGTH Typically a few years per cycle. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 7
CYCLES IN DEPTH Business Cycles, Step by Step A business cycle is just demand-supply maths working its way through the income statement. 1 Demand-Supply Mismatch Either demand outstrips capacity, or capacity outstrips demand. 2 Pricing & Margins Realisations & EBITDA margins move sharply — up in shortage, down in glut. 3 Revenue & Profit Revenue and net profit follow margins, often with operating leverage. 4 Return Ratios ROCE, ROE swing — these are the lagging indicators the market eventually notices. The clue: stock prices anticipate this chain. Margins peak before profits, profits peak before ROCE — and the stock often peaks before all three. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 8
FOUNDATIONS The Moldovsky Effect Why low P/E often signals the worst time to buy a cyclical, and high P/E often signals the best. READ THIS CHART At the trough EPS is depressed → P/E looks scary high. Most investors flee. This is when value is being created. At the peak EPS is fat → P/E looks cheap. Most investors buy. This is often when value is being destroyed. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 9
FOUNDATIONS Why The Moldovsky Effect Is The Trap ✓ THE TROUGH (where you should be buying) Trailing earnings are crushed. EPS Low — cycle bottom P/E Optically very high (scary) Crowd verdict "Avoid — it's expensive and broken" Reality Forward earnings will normalise upward What to do Begin accumulating at peak pessimism ✗ THE PEAK (where most investors buy) Trailing earnings are fattest. EPS High — cycle top P/E Optically very low (looks cheap) Crowd verdict "Such a cheap multiple — buy more!" Reality Forward earnings will normalise downward What to do Trim before best earnings, not after Takeaway: For cyclicals, P/E is the most misleading number on the page. Use P/B and replacement cost instead. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 10
CYCLES IN DEPTH Market Cycles Affect (Almost) Everything Two real situations from the past. The earnings tell one story. The price tells another. SCENARIO 1 · THE LARGE QUALITY RETAILER Sales growth 24% CAGR · Earnings growth 22% CAGR over 3 years What did the stock do? SCENARIO 2 · A SMALLCAP TRANSFORMER MAKER Profit grew 15× in 3 years What did the stock do? Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 11
CASE STUDY · 01 A Leading Retailer When the business growth and the share price growth tell completely different stories. Sales 24% CAGR · Profit 22% CAGR · Stock CAGR 1%. Why? Because starting valuations were already pricing all of this in. PE of 130 is not sustainable even for a 25% growth. It corrects inevitably, unless growth accelerates, or if there is certainty of this growth for a very long period. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 12
CASE STUDY · 02 A Smallcap Transformer Company Profit & Loss — figures in ₹ Crores. Watch the bottom row. In 3 years, profit grew ~15×. The cycle (and operating leverage) did most of the work.Business cycle at work. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 13
CASE STUDY · 02 A Smallcap Transformer Company Stock price (3-year chart on the same company). From ₹105 to ~₹8,000 — almost 80× in 3 years. Best example of how business cycle and market cycle coincided, PE rerating happened. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 14
CASE STUDY · 02 A Smallcap Transformer Company Compounded growth ratios — the pendulum has swung hard to the over-valuation side. The company keeps performing — but once a stock is over-valued, it can correct in time AND in price, even with growing earnings. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 15
CASE STUDY · 03 A Paint Company — Highest Quality A 2021 observation that aged remarkably well. THE OBSERVATION Profits up 3.7x Stock up 9.3× Whenever stock-price CAGR runs far ahead of profit CAGR for too long, the two lines must reconnect. They reconnect either through: → a sharp price correction, or → a long, painful time correction. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 16 PE > 100
CASE STUDY · 03 A Paint Company — Highest Quality Three years later, here's what happened to the same company. WHAT TO OBSERVE 3-year profit CAGR accelerated to 20%. 3-year stock-price CAGR is −8%. The 10-year CAGR has mean-reverted — the pendulum has swung the other way. Same company. Same quality. Different starting price. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 17
CASE STUDY · 03 A Paint Company — Highest Quality And then — even with poor results — the stock began to deliver positive returns again. When valuations get cheap enough, even modest or poor results become a tailwind. The cycle — both business and market — is always working. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 18
CASE STUDY · 04 An NBFC — Highest Quality Same pattern — even in financial services, even in the highest-quality names. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 19 From P/B of 12x to 5x
CASE STUDY · 04 An NBFC — Highest Quality Two years on — sales and profit growth at the company are still strong. The pattern repeats stock after stock. Even for the best companies. The price you pay determines almost everything. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 20
CASE STUDY · 05 Leading FMCG Company — Highest Quality Perfect example of market cycles playing out. 10 years consolidation. Next 10 years 10X. Post that again 5 years consolidation playing out Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 21
CASE STUDY · 06 A Leading IT Company The longest-duration version of the same lesson. PROFITS · 2000 → 2024 (24 years) ₹300 cr → ₹15,000 cr 17.7% CAGR · 5,000% absolute Earnings up 50×. The stock? Any idea on stock CAGR ? A great business compounded earnings 50×. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 22
CASE STUDY · 06 A Leading IT Company The longest-duration version of the same lesson. STOCK PRICE · 2000 → 2024 (24 years) Just 2.18% CAGR 67% absolute over 24 years THE TAKEAWAY A great business compounded earnings 50× — and the stock barely moved. If you'd held for 24 years, you'd have collected dividends and a thumping lesson: starting valuation is decisive. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 23
QUALITY TRAP · DE-RATING · 5-YEAR DATA Earnings Compound, Stock Prices Don't. Indian quality businesses where 5-year EPS has compounded faster than the share price — the unwind of the extraordinary multiples awarded to "compounders" in 2020-21. Company 5Y Stock CAGR 5Y Profit CAGR 5Y Sales CAGR PE /PB ~5Y Back Current PE TCS IT services -4% 9% 10% ~36x ~18x Infosys IT services -1% 9% 12% ~28x ~16x HUL Consumer staples 0% 6% 7% ~66x ~48x* Asian Paints Paints 0% 8% 11% ~74x ~57x Page Industries Apparel 2% 16% 11% ~92x ~44x Avenue Supermarts Retail (DMART) 9% 16% 19% ~169x ~100x Bajaj Finance NBFC 13% 26% 21% ~12 ~5 Kotak Mahindra Bank Private bank 1% 21% 14% ~5.2 ~2.1 Dr Lal PathLabs Diagnostics 3% 16% 13% ~75x ~52x Source: Screener.in (consolidated), as of May 2026. PE 5Y-back back-calculated as current price ÷ (1+CAGR)⁵ ÷ FY21 EPS. *HUL TTM PE inflated by Pureit divestiture gain; normalized ~52-55x. IT SERVICES Multiples crashed from 30-36x to mid-teens on GenAI fears. PREMIUM CONSUMER Entered 2021 at 60-90x+ PEs; spent 5 years digesting. FINANCIALS & RETAIL Earnings compounded 16-26% but multiples refused to expand. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 24
QUALITY TRAP · 5-YEAR DATA So What Does This Tell Us? Four patterns from the table — they matter more than any single name. 01 Multiple compression dominates. In every name on the list, the 5-year multiple ended materially lower than where it started. Even Bajaj Finance — profits compounding at 26% — saw P/B collapse from ~12× to ~5×. 02 Growth doesn't bail you out. Kotak grew profits 21% per year. The stock did 1%. Page Industries grew 16%. The stock did 2%. At extreme starting valuations, even outstanding execution returns nothing. 03 The businesses worked. Investors paid. Sales CAGR positive for every name. Profit CAGR positive for every name. Execution wasn't the problem. Starting valuation was. 04 This is Moldovsky in long form. At peak narrative, multiples are at their fattest — exactly when the trailing data looks most impressive. The time to question a "compounder" is when everyone agrees it is one. Quality is a label. Starting valuation is the math. The math always wins. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 25
“ VALUATIONS Starting valuations matter. A lot. In the long run, profits and stock returns converge. What you pay decides which side of that convergence you land on. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 26
TOOLKIT What Cyclical Investing Demands Five disciplines you have to actually live with — not just nod at. 01 Read the sector / business cycle Know where the industry is in its capex, capacity- utilisation and demand cycle. 02 Read the market cycle Sentiment, liquidity, narrative — these drive multiples even when fundamentals don't. 03 Have loads of patience Cycles take years. The best entries feel boring or scary at the time. 04 Master greed and fear Your job at peak pessimism is the opposite of how you feel. Same at peak euphoria. 05 Understand demand & supply Margins are the price of supply meeting demand. Always go back to first principles. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 27
TOOLKIT Timing — Approximately Right Beats Precisely Wrong 01 Aim for the direction, not the inflection. We don't have to be exactly right. Approximately right is more than enough. 02 Don't try to bottom-tick or top-tick. Nobody gets in at the bottom and out at the top. Stop trying. 03 Get the trend right. Is the cycle turning? Is sentiment shifting? That's the real question. 04 Leave money on the table on the way out. Selling early is fine. Selling on euphoria is great. Holding through reversal is unforgivable. Pareto for cyclicals: the middle 60% of the move is where the money is. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 28
TOOLKIT Investment Process 1 Don't anchor on P/E. It is the worst metric for cyclicals — especially in upcycles when E is highest. Use P/B and replacement cost instead. 2 Check balance-sheet strength. Cash on the books and manageable debt are non-negotiable for surviving the trough. 3 Begin buying at peak pessimism. When the headlines are darkest and the sector report says 'avoid' — that's your starting position. And track aggressively for change in cycle. 4 Scale up as the cycle turns. Add as evidence accumulates: capacity utilisation rising, pricing power returning, margins widening. 5 Watch promoter behaviour. Promoter buying near the trough is a strong signal. Promoter selling near the top is louder still. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 29
TOOLKIT Exit Strategy When you exit matters as much as when you enter — and the rules are different. Sell before peak earnings, not after. Stock prices peak before earnings do. By the time the print is at its best, the move is usually over. Treat upcycle profits as extraordinary, not normal. Don't capitalize a peak EBITDA into perpetuity. The temptation to apply a PE multiple to top-of-cycle earnings has destroyed more capital than any fraud. Anchor entries and exits to P/B or replacement cost. A simple rule of thumb: enter at 0.2–0.4× P/B or replacement cost. Exit at 1.2–1.5×. Calibrate by sector. Estimate normal margins by averaging across full cycles. Average EBITDA margins across a full upcycle and downcycle. That's your honest mid-cycle number — use it. Don't repent if the price keeps rising after you sell. The goal is good returns, not perfect ones. There is no prize for selling at the absolute top. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 30
CASE STUDY · 07 A Paper Company P&L over more than a decade. Look at how operating profit moves. Classic cyclical signature: long flat periods punctuated by sharp moves in operating profit and margins. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 31
CASE STUDY · 07 A Paper Company The same company's stock price over the same period. The price chart maps the cycle — wide bottoms, vertical recoveries, and equally vertical declines. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 32
CASE STUDY · 08 A Polyfilm Company P&L (₹ Crores) — track operating profit and OPM%. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 33
CASE STUDY · 08 A Polyfilm Company Stock chart with margin annotations — see how the price tracks OPM, not absolute profit. Margin path: OPM 36% (peak) → 25% → 3% (trough). Watch how the stock anticipates each move. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 34
CASE STUDY · 09 A Polyfilm Company (No. 2) A second polyfilm name for comparison — same industry, same kind of cycle. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 35
CASE STUDY · 09 A Polyfilm Company (No. 2) Stock chart with margin annotations. Margin path: OPM 6% → 12% → 19%. Same pattern — different starting point on the cycle. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 36
CASE STUDY · 10 A Metal Mining Company P&L for a classic commodity cyclical. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 37
CASE STUDY · 10 A Metal Mining Company Stock price across the cycle. Commodity stocks aren't broken when they fall — they're cycling. The same is true on the way up. In each example, you will see you make money when you invest in business cycle troughs. And you can lose, when you invest in upcycles. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 38
TOOLKIT Stock Evaluation Checklist What we always look at — grouped into the dimensions that actually matter. Numbers ✓ At least 5 years of annual reports ✓ Minimum 3 years of concall transcripts ✓ Operating cash flows ✓ Debt levels ✓ Capacity utilisation / operating leverage ✓ Valuations … Forward View ✓ Future regression — buy on future potential, not current snapshot ✓ Pricing power ✓ Entry barriers ✓ Competition ✓ Scale & resilience People ✓ Promoter holding & pledging ✓ Management quality (above-average minimum) ✓ Corporate governance — zero compromise ✓ Scuttlebutt: suppliers, dealers, customers, past & present employees Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 39
PHILOSOPHY Our Circle of Competence WHAT WE BELIEVE Our investment philosophy is value-oriented. We are patient and long-term investors. At the same time, we look at opportunistic plays. We are very mindful of what we pay for acquiring any asset. THE FIVE THEMES WE FOCUS ON 01 Value + Growth at a reasonable price 02 Turnarounds credible change triggers 03 Mispriced Bets temporary headwinds 04 Cyclicals & commodity stocks 05 Special Situations M&A, buybacks, demergers Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 40
PHILOSOPHY · 01 Value + Growth at a Reasonable Price The core theme — what most of the portfolio looks like. THEME 01 Value + Growth at a Reasonable Price The bar is high — every box should be ticked, and valuations should still be reasonable (PEG < 1.5). WHAT WE LOOK FOR Visible runway Growth visibility for at least the next 3 years. Self-funded growth Growth is largely self-funded — not at the cost of high debt or significant equity dilution. Capex from accruals A high percentage of capex should ideally come from internal accruals. Cycle-tested Should have survived past cycles reasonably well. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 41
PHILOSOPHY · 01 Value + Growth at a Reasonable Price The core theme — what most of the portfolio looks like. THEME 01 Value + Growth at a Reasonable Price The bar is high — every box should be ticked, and valuations should still be reasonable (PEG < 1.5). WHAT WE LOOK FOR (contd) Margins ≥ peers Should have superior or comparable margins versus peers. Top of market Preferably top-3 in the sector, or an incumbent with a real value proposition / product differentiation / superior tech. Reasonable valuation All or most of the above — at a PEG of less than 1.5. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 42
PHILOSOPHY · 02 Turnaround Opportunities When something fundamental changes that the market hasn't caught up to yet. THEME 02 Turnaround Opportunities Without a credible change trigger, a 'turnaround' is just a stock that has gone down. WHAT WE LOOK FOR A real change trigger Could be management change, promoter change or next-gen taking over, a tech partnership / innovation, or a sustainable shift in customer behaviour. Operating leverage Is there meaningful operating leverage as volumes / utilisation come back? Financial leverage Is there financial leverage that will amplify the turn — without putting solvency at risk? Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 43
PHILOSOPHY · 03 Mispriced Bets Good businesses temporarily mispriced because the market is over-extrapolating bad news. THEME 03 Mispriced Bets The clue is almost always the same: the market is treating temporary as permanent. WHAT WE LOOK FOR Temporary headwinds Company or sector is facing a one-off — input cost spike, weather, regulation, geopolitics. Inventory losses Inventory or hedging losses are dragging reported operating performance below true earning power. Capex done, utilisation about to inflect Capex cycle is complete and the company is poised for a step-change in capacity utilisation. Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 44
PHILOSOPHY · 04 Cyclical & Commodity Stocks The home turf of this presentation. THEME 04 Cyclical & Commodity Stocks Buy when the ratios look bad. Sell before everyone agrees the cycle is great. WHAT WE LOOK FOR Down-cycle or turn Company / sector is in a down-cycle or on the cusp of a cyclical turn. Bad ratios are the entry For contra-cyclical bets, invest when ROCE and ROE have turned bad and margins are compressed. Study the past cycles How has this management navigated past up- and down-cycles? Survival is the first filter. Use the right yardsticks P/B and replacement cost are far better than P/E for cyclicals — especially in upcycle. Detailed video: https://aurumcapital.in/blogs/2020/01/11/video-link-jiten-parmar-presentation-on-cyclicality-at-ppfas-in-dec-2019/ Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 45
PHILOSOPHY · 05 Special Situations Corporate-action–driven opportunities where pricing is structurally inefficient. THEME 05 Special Situations The edge here is reading the action correctly, not predicting the market. WHAT WE LOOK FOR Mergers & demergers Buybacks Sale of business or division Rights offerings Bonus issues Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 46
” ONE LAST THING All things being equal … the differentiator is … Behaviour & Inference. JITEN PARMAR · AURUM CAPITAL Buy The Trough, Sell The Boom · Jiten Parmar · Aurum Capital 47
GET IN TOUCH Thank you. Questions, pushback, war stories — all welcome. PRESENTER Jiten Parmar Aurum Capital REACH OUT Email jiten.parmar@aurumcapital.in Twitter @jitenkparmar Web aurumcapital.in