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D U N & B R A D S T R E E T
ASEAN
Business Optimism Index
Quarter 1 2016
GROWING RELATIONSHIPS THROUGH DATA
Measuring
Confidence
Measured
Decisions
BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX
The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index (BOI) report is a measure of business confidence in the economy.
Released quarterly, it measures the pulse of the business community and is one of the most effective ways to track
how the business community perceives the business environment, and where they think it is going. Over time, this
quarterly survey has emerged as a leading indicator of turning points in economic activity in countries which it
is published.
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
For the purpose of conducting the survey, a sample is randomly selected from Dun & Bradstreet database, consisting of
companies belonging to the following sectors including Agriculture, Construction, Utilities, Finance, Manufacturing,
Mining, Services, Transportation, Wholesale, and Real Estate.
All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding their expectations as to whether the
following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register an increase ( ), decline ( ) or
show no change ( ) in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year: Volume of Sales, Net
Profits, Selling Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees.
The individual indices are then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from
those expecting increases. Unless otherwise stated, increases and decreases in indices represent changes from the
previous quarter.
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALERSSERVICESMININGUTILITIES FINANCE
SALES
VOLUME
NET
PROFIT
NEW
ORDERS
SELLING
PRICE
INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT
REAL ESTATE
ASEAN Business Optimism Index
7th 3rd&largest in
the world
largest
in Asia
The leading indicator of business confidence for Southeast Asia region
| QUARTER 1, 2016
In 2014, ASEAN economy was
the the
SALES
VOLUME
NET
PROFIT
SELLING
PRICE
INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT
Businesses are asked to give their
outlook on six key indicators
ASEAN-6
INDONESIA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM
SALES VOLUME
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
NEW ORDERS
INVENTORY
EMPLOYMENT
NEW
ORDERS
Source: ASEAN Secretariat
SUMMARY
Business sentiment starts off the year in a positive note for almost all of the 6 ASEAN member states surveyed by
Dun & Bradstreet for its quarterly Business Optimism Index (BOI). The Philippines extends its gains healthily while
Vietnam takes a seasonal correction from its fast-paced growth. Things may have finally bottomed out in Malaysia
and Indonesia as confidence bounces back in the first quarter, after a prolonged period of decline. Thailand is also
seeing bright spots across the economy with stimulus measures in place. The lone exception is Singapore, where
weakness in its manufacturing industries push business expectations down to a multi-year low.
The Dun & Bradstreet ASEAN BOI is the first and leading business optimism metric for Southeast Asia, one of the
world’s largest trade regions which officially established the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in December 2015.
INDEX
INDONESIA	 Hands on Deck for a Better Outlook	 	 05
MALAYSIA	 Too Early for Signs of Green Shoots?	 	 08
PHILIPPINES	 Spring Fever for Filipino Businesses	 	 11
SINGAPORE	 Chips Stay Down for Manufacturing	 	 14
THAILAND	 Economic Stimulus Starts to Bear Fruit	 	 17
VIETNAM	 Fast-Track Growth Takes a Pit Stop	 	 20
Hands on Deck for a Better Outlook
The government has put their hands on deck with
stronger reform momentum. One of its efforts in
maintaining purchasing power is realized through the
non-taxable income policy. Investment is also expected
to exceed household consumption as the backbone of
economic growth. The government targets investment
growth to reach 8.6% to 9% in 2016. In addition, it
will coordinate with the central bank to extend the
coverage of social welfare programs throughout local
governments to rein in the national inflation target at
4.7% in 2016.
The Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) also
agrees that economic prospects will be brighter. One
trigger is the economic policy package comprising
volumes 1-7 (issued by the government since mid-
2015), which is expected to bring positive stimulus
to the market in the near future. Another optimism-
friendly measure is the establishment of One Stop
Services (OSS) to accelerate business licensing services
through the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM).
This effort has succeeded in improving Indonesia’s
ranking from 120 to 109, in the Ease of Doing Business
survey released by World Bank Group.
After registering four consecutive quarters of decline
throughout 2015, the new Business Optimism Index
(BOI) opens Q1 2016 with an improved optimistic
outlook from surveyed companies. The overall BOI
score rose from 27.8% in previous quarter to 34.6%
in Q1. Besides Selling Price, all parameters are
expansionary on q-o-q basis. A net weighted 15.3% of
respondents expect the market to grow better than last
year. Meanwhile, the proportion holding a pessimistic
outlook stayed low at only 2.9%.
–	Volume of Sales and New Orders registered the
largest improvement by 19% and 18% q-o-q
respectively. Wholesale is the most optimistic sector
in both instances, followed by Mining and Services.
–	 Net Profit experienced the third largest improvement
among all parameters with 16.7% from -0.3% to
17% in Q1 2016.
–	 Inventory and Employment also increased, by 4% and
-3.3% respectively.Agriculture,Wholesale, and Mining
are the most optimistic sectors for this parameter.
–	Selling Price is the only parameter that posted a
decrease (-0.7%) from 10% to 9.3% in Q1 2016.
This is as most respondents have increased prices in
the last quarter, due to the weakening rupiah against
US dollar.
While still overshadowed by global economic challenges
such as China slowdown, Fed rate hike, and plunging
commodity prices, Indonesia is expected to recover in
2016. Both the government and business community
share the same optimistic outlook that economic
performance will be better than last year, bolstered by
household consumption rebound and robust investment.
Bank Indonesia forecasted GDP in 2016 in a range of
5.2% to 5.6% or higher than 2015 (at 4.7%-5.1%).
Business Optimism Index
INDONESIA
Quarter 1 2016
Q3
90 7
70
80
5
6
60
450
340
30
2
0 0
20
10
1
Q3
Q2
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q3
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q2
2015 20162013 20142012
OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q3 2012 – Q1 2016)
BOISCORE
GDPGROWTH(%)
Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
17.3
Q-O-Q
0.7
Q-O-Q
19.0
VOLUME OF SALES
Q-O-Q
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1
80
40
-20
60
0
20
-40
%
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
80
40
-20
60
0
20
-40
%
80
40
50
-10
60
70
0
20
10
30
-20
%
Business Optimism Index
INDONESIA
Quarter 1 2016
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
ALL
NEW ORDERS
INVENTORY
EMPLOYMENT
4.7
Q-O-Q
80
40
-20
60
0
20
-40
%
40
30
0
-30
20
10
-20
-10
-40
%
40
10
-5
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
-15
-10
%
Business Optimism Index
INDONESIA
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
6.7
Q-O-Q
18.7
Q-O-Q
Too Early for Signs of Green Shoots?
under strain, as both residential and non-residential
building activities have plateaued in recent months.
Wholesale is the least optimistic given that export
growth continues to be anemic.
Corruption scandals,alarmist reports of capital outflows,
the persistently low oil price, the deteriorating inflation
outlook, and disappointing growth in China have all
conspired to depress consumer sentiment. The fiscal
stimulus in 2016 will be limited. Taxes for high-income
earners will be raised, and the overall budget deficit is
scheduled to decline, but infrastructure spending will be
more frontloaded than previously announced.
On the foreign exchange front, Malaysia’s fragile short-
term liquidity profile makes the currency very vulnerable
to any events that increase global risk-aversion. The
currency is unlikely to strengthen under any scenario
other than a sustained oil price recovery (which is
improbable at the moment). Inflation is above target
(and increasing), but the central bank is not in a position
to raise rates, given the softening growth pattern. We
have maintained our growth forecast of 4.5% for 2015,
but lowered 2016 forecast to 4.7% (down from 5.2%).
Following a historic trough in confidence, Malaysian
firms rebounded into the expansionary zone for the
new quarter. According to Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia’s
latest Business Optimism Index (BOI), all six indicators
have sprung into positive territory for Q1 2016. The
overall index rose from -14.5% to +4.8% for Q1 on a
q-o-q basis, though markedly lower than the level seen
last year at +13.1%.
–	Both Volume of Sales and Net Profit experienced
the largest q-o-q increases. As encouraging as this is,
sentiments could be seasonal with Chinese New Year
around the corner. The numbers are still significantly
off the mark set a year ago, which suggests that
broader weakness will be carried over to 2016.
–	Meanwhile, Selling Price eased from +10.5% in
Q4 to +3.5% in Q1 2016. Most respondents do
not expect to raise prices, as consumers are already
grappling with reduced purchasing power due to the
weak ringgit, higher taxes, and higher inflation.
–	New Orders for manufacturers reversed fortunes
from -10.7% in Q4 to +8.1% in Q1 2016. Inventory
finally edged above water after languishing for
three consecutive quarters, rising from -8.0% in Q4
+0.5% in Q1 2016.
–	 Employment is positive again, from -4.5% in Q4 to
+2.0% in Q1 2016. Most sectors remain unchanged
from last quarter, with Construction recording the
steepest decline.
It may be premature to ascertain that things will
actually turn around for good as businesses tend to
rake in more sales during the festive season. Services are
expected to remain the strong pillar of the Malaysian
economy while the once-rosy Construction sector is
Q2
40
30
20
10
0
-20
-10
Q3
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q4
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015 20162013 2014
OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q2 2013 – Q1 2016)
BOISCORE
Business Optimism Index
MALAYSIA
Quarter 1 2016
VOLUME OF SALES
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
80
0
40
-40
-100
60
-20
-80
20
-60
-120
80
40
-20
60
0
20
-40
80
0
40
-40
60
-20
20
-60
-80
%
%
%
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
Business Optimism Index
MALAYSIA
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1
40.5
Q-O-Q
40.5
Q-O-Q
7.0
Q-O-Q
NEW ORDERS
15
10
0
-10
5
-5
-15
%
INVENTORY
%
EMPLOYMENT
40
30
10
-20
20
-10
0
-30
25
0
10
-10
-25
15
20
-5
-20
5
-15
-30
%
8.5
Q-O-Q
MINING
Business Optimism Index
MALAYSIA
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
6.5
Q-O-Q
18.8
Q-O-Q
Spring Fever for Filipino Businesses
Expectations Survey revealed that business sentiment hit
a two-year high in Q4, supported by a range of factors
including rising sales and orders. Confidence was highest
among businesses in the Wholesale & Retail trade sector.
The Philippines remains one of the fastest growing
countries in the region. Overall, D&B maintains a broadly
upbeat view of the economy and continue to expect full-
year growth of 5.8% in 2015, followed by a slightly
stronger expansion of 6.2% in 2016. While uncertainty
over who will succeed current president Benigno Aquino
could dampen investor sentiment to some degree in the
short term, we expect improvements to the business
environment will continue to be made after he leaves office.
Indeed, all of the major candidates have indicated their
intention to pursue further liberalisation should they win
the election. While consumer price growth remains below
the central bank’s 2-4% target range, the central bank has
sufficient room to tighten monetary policy should inflation
accelerate rapidly, as interest rates are at close to historic
lows and the economy is growing at a healthy pace.
Businesses are upbeat for the coming spring. They bounced
back from Q4 and rose 14% for the first quarter of 2016.
The Business Optimism Index (BOI) stands at 66%, the
highest in the ASEAN region for all key markets surveyed
by Dun & Bradstreet. Almost 70% of respondents have
increased expectations while only 3% decreased. The rest
were unchanged.All the parameters grew convincingly in Q1
from the preceding quarter; four of them by double digits.
–	Volume of Sales inched up by 0.7 to a high 81%.
Net Profit rose by 7 percentage points to 80%.
Wholesale, Construction and Services are riding on
the wave of optimism.
–	 Selling Price went up by 17%. Higher food prices are
largely responsible for driving the rise in inflation.
Consumer prices rose at the fastest pace so far
this year, indicating that inflationary pressures are
gradually building.
–	New Orders climbed 16 percentage points to 77%
in Q1, led by Wholesale and Services. Inventory
jumped 23 percentage points, with strong upticks in
Mining, Wholesale and Manufacturing.
–	 Employment hit above 50% confidence level for the first
time, reaching 59%. This is an increase of 22% from
the previous quarter, with almost all sectors showing
expansion. On y-o-y basis, it is an increase of 35%.
Two other surveys corroborated the findings above.
According to the central bank’s Q4 Consumer Expectations
Survey, consumer confidence has hit its highest level since
the third quarter of 2013. Lower unemployment and an
improving economy are two key factors that are supporting
sentiment. Meanwhile, the central bank’s Business
80
60
40
20
0
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q3
Q1
2015 2016
OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q1 2015 – Q1 2016)
BOISCORE
Business Optimism Index
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 1 2016
6.5
6
5.5
4.5
5
GDPGROWTH(%)
Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
120
80
40
100
60
20
0
120
80
40
100
60
20
0
80
40
60
0
-60
20
-40
-20
-80
%
%
%
Business Optimism Index
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1VOLUME OF SALES
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
17.3
Q-O-Q
7.0
Q-O-Q
0.7
Q-O-Q
%
150
0
-100
100
50
-50
-150
%
120
80
40
100
60
20
0
%
120
80
100
40
-20
60
0
20
-40
Business Optimism Index
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
NEW ORDERS
INVENTORY
EMPLOYMENT
22.0
Q-O-Q
22.5
Q-O-Q
16.0
Q-O-Q
Chips Stay Down for Manufacturing
term. Our previous Q4 2015 report had forecasted hard
knocks for the sector. It is the least optimistic sector with
all six parameters in contraction,due to a sustained decline
in output, most notably in the transport engineering,
electronics and precision engineering segments. Survey
findings also reveal that the outlook of construction
firms has dampened for Q1 2016. Given that global risks
are likely to be skewed downside, optimism levels could
remain muted in the months ahead.
Dun & Bradstreet takes the view that the resiliency
of the Singapore consumer will help to support near-
term growth and absorb some of the weakness in the
Manufacturing segment. In addition, the Monetary
Authority of Singapore has shifted the main policy
band in October by reducing the slope of the Singapore
dollar’s appreciation. This movement toward a more
accommodative policy measure will help to stimulate
Singapore’s export market. A movement toward further
accommodation remains likely given the current
deflationary environment. The current weakness in
Singapore’s real GDP should be considered a blip and
growth will return to 2.3% in 2016.
Greater pessimism is felt across local businesses
due primarily to constrained global demand as
well as prolonged weakness and flat growth in the
Manufacturing and Wholesale sectors. According to
Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB), which
operates under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore, the
overall index hit a historic multi-year low as it fell into
negative territory from 0.14% in Q4 2015 to -2.93%
in Q1 2016. On a y-o-y basis, the index slid 4.04%
from the corresponding quarter last year.
–	Both Volume of Sales and Net Profits deteriorated
further in Q1 2016, by 2.75% and 4.92%
respectively. Local firms are treading cautiously
into 2016. Merely 6% of those surveyed expects to
increase investment for business expansion while the
vast majority stays unchanged.
–	Selling Price is the only parameter which is
expansionary, climbing from -6.43% in Q4 to
+4.93% in Q1 2016. There is also a marginal
improvement on y-o-y basis of 0.64%.
–	 Two other parameters fell into the red. New Orders for
manufacturers remain contractionary, plunging from
-22.22% in Q4 to a new depth of -56.0% in Q1 2016.
Overall new orders for all sectors also lost ground, at
-2.11%. Inventory slipped by 4.25% in Q1 2016.
–	Employment took a large hit of almost 20%.
Nevertheless the survey also found that 38% of
respondents cited skills upgrading of employees as the
most important area of investment for 2016, slightly
above machinery and capital equipment (37%).
Manufacturing, which accounts for between 18-20% of
annual GDP, will continue to be a drag over the near
Q1
40
30
35
25
20
10
15
-5
0
5
Q3
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015 20162013 2014
OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q1 2013 – Q1 2016)
BOISCORE
Business Optimism Index
SINGAPORE
Quarter 1 2016
60
-20
20
-60
40
-40
0
-80
80
40
0
-60
20
-40
60
-20
-80
100
20
60
20
-80
80
0
-60
40
-40
-100
%
%
%
Business Optimism Index
SINGAPORE
Quarter 1 2016
VOLUME OF SALES
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
4.9
Q-O-Q
2.7
Q-O-Q
11.4
Q-O-Q
20
-10
10
-30
-20
-50
0
-40
-60
%
80
40
0
20
60
-20
-40
%
80
0
40
-40
60
-20
20
-60
%
MINING
Business Optimism Index
SINGAPORE
Quarter 1 2016
NEW ORDERS
INVENTORY
EMPLOYMENT
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE
19.9
Q-O-Q
4.2
Q-O-Q
33.8
Q-O-Q
Economic Stimulus Starts to Bear Fruit
Stimulus measures focusing on SMEs and low income
earners are showing more concrete outcome, such as the
development of government-sector infrastructure (1.7
trillion baht), assistance for IT retail businesses like 4G
services, and the 10 Clusters Support policy. Consequently,
the Government is aiming to reduce logistics costs per GDP
by not less than 2% in all modes of transportation: railways,
elevated trains, motorways, and Phase 2 of Suvarnabhumi
Airport. Pump priming and 20% increase in the investment
budget will spur private-sector investment and consumption.
Nonetheless, household incomes in the Agriculture sector
are still low due to weak commodity prices. The ratio of
household debts remains high, and the drought problem
persists. Terrorism has affected the trade atmosphere,
and international investment has stagnated. On the other
hand, Tourism is set to welcome about 32.2 million
foreign tourists, with those from China, continuing to rise
satisfactorily. Construction should expand by 10% this
year. Oil prices mired below US$40 per barrel will stabilize
the price of raw materials, especially steel bars.The steadily
weakening baht should also help baht-designated exports.
According to Dun & Bradstreet, almost all business
confidence parameters went up compared to the last
quarter, though they are still shy of the levels last
year. Utilities and Wholesale & Retail sectors had the
brightest outlook, showing sizable increases in most
categories. Mining and Agriculture & Fishing suffered
heavy fall in almost all indices.
–	 Both Volume of Sales and Net Profits moved in tandem,
and increased from -12% last quarter to 7% in Q1
2016. But on y-o-y basis, both declined by 21% and
20% respectively. Respondents in Utilities had the best
outlook, forecasting a net increase of 33%, followed by
Wholesale & Retail. Mining fared the worst followed
by Agriculture & Fishing.
–	 Selling Price held on to its position, budging by merely
1% from last quarter. On y-o-y basis, it had plunged by
14%. Services had the most positive direction, followed
by Wholesale & Retail. Mining projected a net fall of
15% in Q1, followed by construction (-10%).
–	 New Orders is back to black after a contractionary quarter,
and increased by 10%. On y-o-y basis, it had dropped
by 18%. Services is the most favorable sector, expecting
a net gain of 25%. This is followed by Utilities (+22%).
Inventory improved from -10% last quarter to -2% in Q1
2016, and also performed better by 2% on y-o-y basis.
–	Employment enjoyed a quarterly gain of 9% in
Q1 2016, with 19% of respondents predicting an
increase, 12% decrease and 68% foreseeing no
change. Utilities is the most optimistic, with net
growth of 44% followed by Construction (40%), in
contrast with Agriculture & Fishing (-8%).
20
15
10
5
0
-10
-5
Q3
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015 20162014
OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q4 2014 – Q1 2016)
BOISCORE
Business Optimism Index
THAILAND
Quarter 1 2016
120
100
40
20
-40
80
60
-20
0
-60
%
ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE
ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE
ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE
120
100
40
20
-40
80
60
-20
0
-60
%
100
80
60
0
20
40
-20
%
Business Optimism Index
THAILAND
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1VOLUME OF SALES
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
1.0
Q-O-Q
19.0
Q-O-Q
19.0
Q-O-Q
100
80
20
0
-60
60
40
-40
-20
-80
%
40
30
20
-10
-20
-50
10
0
-40
-30
-60
%
120
100
40
20
-40
80
60
-20
0
-60
%
Business Optimism Index
THAILAND
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1NEW ORDERS
INVENTORY
EMPLOYMENT
ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE
ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE
ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE
9.0
Q-O-Q
8.0
Q-O-Q
10.0
Q-O-Q
Fast-Track Growth Takes a Pit Stop
(see chart below). Therefore we view this as cyclical
in nature and expect the readings to pick up in Q2.
Recent fluctuations in the exchange rate may also have
cast shadows on the business environment, specifically
for Manufacturing.
Overall, Vietnam’s economic performance is on the
acceleration track. Growth is estimated about 6.5% at
least, with Industry & Construction projected to grow
at 10%. D&B sees a number of factors supporting
growth over the next few years. The first is strong
exports, amid the continued relocation of low-end
manufacturing from China to lower-cost regional
locations. Even though exports from most emerging
markets contracted in 2015, Vietnamese exports have
still grown at close to double-digit pace. The other
factor is loose monetary policy. Low inflation has
given the central bank scope to keep interest rates low.
Meanwhile, the banking sector is showing gradual
signs of recovery. Credit growth is accelerating while
the level of non-performing loans is down sharply.
From the outset, there does not seem to be much to cheer
from the latest business confidence numbers released
by Dun & Bradstreet Vietnam, as all six parameters fell
and across all sectors. But at a closer look, the slump
is most likely a seasonal correction which will rebound
next quarter. The overall index was slashed by half
from 45% to 22% in Q1 2016, after hovering above
40% for two consecutive quarters.
–	Net Profit suffered the largest drop from 88% to
43% in Q1 2016. Volume of Sales moved in the same
direction but in a slightly lesser range, from 71%
to 36%. Deep cuts are felt in Construction, Mining,
and Manufacturing.
–	Selling Price kept to almost the same level at 2%,
compared to 3% last quarter. This is the largest drop
among the parameters on y-o-y basis (10 percentage
points), and is rather obvious given the very low
inflation this year (estimated to be less than 1%).
–	New Orders plunged from 67% to 29% in Q1
2016, though it should be noted that Services,
Transportation, Communication and Utilities held
up fairly well. Change in Inventory level is milder
with 12 percentage points down (from 20% to 8%).
–	Employment recorded a 4 percentage point
downward adjustment, from 20% to 16%. In
y-o-y terms, this is actually the largest increase (11
percentage points), buttressed by stable and positive
economic outlook for the year.
When compared y-o-y, these changes are rather mild,
within +/- 10 percentage points or less in most cases.
Even the overall score is similar to Q1 2015. In fact,
similar drops are observed for Q1 in the last two years
Q4
50
40
30
20
0
10
Q3
Q3
Q1
Q4
Q1
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q2
2015 201620142013
OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q4 2013 – Q1 2016)
BOISCORE
8
5
7
6
4
3
2
0
1
GDPGROWTH(%)
Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
Business Optimism Index
VIETNAM
Quarter 1 2016
100
60
80
40
10
90
50
20
70
30
0
%
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
100
60
80
40
10
90
50
20
70
30
0
%
25
15
5
-10
10
-5
20
0
-15
%
Business Optimism Index
VIETNAM
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1VOLUME OF SALES
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
1.0
Q-O-Q
41.0
Q-O-Q
35.0
Q-O-Q
MANUFACTURING ALLMINING WHOLESALE
90
60
80
40
10
50
20
70
30
0
%
50
30
40
20
5
45
25
10
35
15
0
%
40
20
10
-5
30
15
0
25
5
-10
%
Business Optimism Index
VIETNAM
Quarter 1 2016
2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1NEW ORDERS
INVENTORY
EMPLOYMENT
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION
35
4.0
Q-O-Q
12.0
Q-O-Q
28.0
Q-O-Q
ABOUT DUN & BRADSTREET®
(D&B)
Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB) grows the most valuable relationships in business. By uncovering truth and meaning
from data, we connect customers with the prospects, suppliers, clients and partners that matter most, and have since
1841. Nearly ninety percent of the Fortune 500, and companies of every size around the world, rely on our data,
insights and analytics. For more about Dun & Bradstreet, visit DNB.com.
© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2016. All rights reserved.
D&B BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (BOI)
INDONESIA	 Analysis and commentary by Bayu Krisna Setyadi, Dun & Bradstreet Indonesia.
	 For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.id, or contact our Customer Service Center at
+62 21 5790 0979, or email us csr@dnb.co.id.
MALAYSIA	 Analysis and commentary by Matthias Chen, Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia, with reference to D&B
Country Insight Services.
	 For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Matthias Chen at +65 6439 6670,
or email dnb.marketing@dnb.com.sg.
PHILIPPINES	 Analysis and commentary by Ian Velasco, Dun & Bradstreet Philippines, with reference to D&B
Country Insight Services.
	 For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.ph, or contact our Customer Service Center at
+632 907 6080, or email us custservice@dnb.com.ph.
SINGAPORE	 Analysis and commentary by Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau.
	 Established in 2005, Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB) operates a database of
local enterprises and their credit history to provide clients with the insight needed to build
trust and improve the quality of business relationships with their customers, suppliers and
business partners. SCCB operates under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore. For more information,
please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Matthias Chen at +65 6439 6670, or email
dnb.marketing@dnb.com.sg.
THAILAND	 Analysis by Dun & Bradstreet Thailand. Commentary by Asst. Prof. Pannarai Sangvichien,
Ms. Nitaya Limphaisa, Mr. Somnuk Assadornviseth, Ms Sariya Nuchanong, Ms. Banjertsak
SanhaPuckdee, Huachiew Chalermprakiet University.
	 For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.th, or contact our Customer Service Center at
+662 657 3999 ext. 4200, or email us info@dnb.co.th.
VIETNAM	 Analysis by Dun & Bradstreet Vietnam. Commentary by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Minh Ha, Dean
of Post Graduate School, HCMC Open University, Vietnam.
	 For more information, please visit www.dnbvietnam.com, or contact our Customer Service Center
at +848 3911 7288, or email csvietnam@dnb.com.
Market Intelligence to Navigate Market Risk
D&B’s Country Insight Solutions monitor changes in the business environment of individual countries and forecast country-
wide developments which may affect the level of risk or provide opportunities in the short to medium term.
If your business trades overseas and needs up-to-date Credit, Political, Supply Chain risk, or Commercial insight, D&B’s
country level solutions let you integrate our leading country data, predictive analysis and commercially relevant insight in
your business processes to help you deliver a competitive advantage. Click here to see how you can benefit.
Your VisionYour Vision Our Insight
GROWING RELATIONSHIPS THROUGH DATA

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Business Optimism Index - BOI ASEAN Q1 2016

  • 1. D U N & B R A D S T R E E T ASEAN Business Optimism Index Quarter 1 2016 GROWING RELATIONSHIPS THROUGH DATA Measuring Confidence Measured Decisions
  • 2. BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index (BOI) report is a measure of business confidence in the economy. Released quarterly, it measures the pulse of the business community and is one of the most effective ways to track how the business community perceives the business environment, and where they think it is going. Over time, this quarterly survey has emerged as a leading indicator of turning points in economic activity in countries which it is published. SURVEY METHODOLOGY For the purpose of conducting the survey, a sample is randomly selected from Dun & Bradstreet database, consisting of companies belonging to the following sectors including Agriculture, Construction, Utilities, Finance, Manufacturing, Mining, Services, Transportation, Wholesale, and Real Estate. All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding their expectations as to whether the following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register an increase ( ), decline ( ) or show no change ( ) in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year: Volume of Sales, Net Profits, Selling Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees. The individual indices are then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from those expecting increases. Unless otherwise stated, increases and decreases in indices represent changes from the previous quarter. AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALERSSERVICESMININGUTILITIES FINANCE SALES VOLUME NET PROFIT NEW ORDERS SELLING PRICE INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT REAL ESTATE
  • 3. ASEAN Business Optimism Index 7th 3rd&largest in the world largest in Asia The leading indicator of business confidence for Southeast Asia region | QUARTER 1, 2016 In 2014, ASEAN economy was the the SALES VOLUME NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT Businesses are asked to give their outlook on six key indicators ASEAN-6 INDONESIA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM SALES VOLUME NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE NEW ORDERS INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT NEW ORDERS Source: ASEAN Secretariat
  • 4. SUMMARY Business sentiment starts off the year in a positive note for almost all of the 6 ASEAN member states surveyed by Dun & Bradstreet for its quarterly Business Optimism Index (BOI). The Philippines extends its gains healthily while Vietnam takes a seasonal correction from its fast-paced growth. Things may have finally bottomed out in Malaysia and Indonesia as confidence bounces back in the first quarter, after a prolonged period of decline. Thailand is also seeing bright spots across the economy with stimulus measures in place. The lone exception is Singapore, where weakness in its manufacturing industries push business expectations down to a multi-year low. The Dun & Bradstreet ASEAN BOI is the first and leading business optimism metric for Southeast Asia, one of the world’s largest trade regions which officially established the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in December 2015. INDEX INDONESIA Hands on Deck for a Better Outlook 05 MALAYSIA Too Early for Signs of Green Shoots? 08 PHILIPPINES Spring Fever for Filipino Businesses 11 SINGAPORE Chips Stay Down for Manufacturing 14 THAILAND Economic Stimulus Starts to Bear Fruit 17 VIETNAM Fast-Track Growth Takes a Pit Stop 20
  • 5. Hands on Deck for a Better Outlook The government has put their hands on deck with stronger reform momentum. One of its efforts in maintaining purchasing power is realized through the non-taxable income policy. Investment is also expected to exceed household consumption as the backbone of economic growth. The government targets investment growth to reach 8.6% to 9% in 2016. In addition, it will coordinate with the central bank to extend the coverage of social welfare programs throughout local governments to rein in the national inflation target at 4.7% in 2016. The Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) also agrees that economic prospects will be brighter. One trigger is the economic policy package comprising volumes 1-7 (issued by the government since mid- 2015), which is expected to bring positive stimulus to the market in the near future. Another optimism- friendly measure is the establishment of One Stop Services (OSS) to accelerate business licensing services through the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). This effort has succeeded in improving Indonesia’s ranking from 120 to 109, in the Ease of Doing Business survey released by World Bank Group. After registering four consecutive quarters of decline throughout 2015, the new Business Optimism Index (BOI) opens Q1 2016 with an improved optimistic outlook from surveyed companies. The overall BOI score rose from 27.8% in previous quarter to 34.6% in Q1. Besides Selling Price, all parameters are expansionary on q-o-q basis. A net weighted 15.3% of respondents expect the market to grow better than last year. Meanwhile, the proportion holding a pessimistic outlook stayed low at only 2.9%. – Volume of Sales and New Orders registered the largest improvement by 19% and 18% q-o-q respectively. Wholesale is the most optimistic sector in both instances, followed by Mining and Services. – Net Profit experienced the third largest improvement among all parameters with 16.7% from -0.3% to 17% in Q1 2016. – Inventory and Employment also increased, by 4% and -3.3% respectively.Agriculture,Wholesale, and Mining are the most optimistic sectors for this parameter. – Selling Price is the only parameter that posted a decrease (-0.7%) from 10% to 9.3% in Q1 2016. This is as most respondents have increased prices in the last quarter, due to the weakening rupiah against US dollar. While still overshadowed by global economic challenges such as China slowdown, Fed rate hike, and plunging commodity prices, Indonesia is expected to recover in 2016. Both the government and business community share the same optimistic outlook that economic performance will be better than last year, bolstered by household consumption rebound and robust investment. Bank Indonesia forecasted GDP in 2016 in a range of 5.2% to 5.6% or higher than 2015 (at 4.7%-5.1%). Business Optimism Index INDONESIA Quarter 1 2016 Q3 90 7 70 80 5 6 60 450 340 30 2 0 0 20 10 1 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 2015 20162013 20142012 OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q3 2012 – Q1 2016) BOISCORE GDPGROWTH(%) Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
  • 6. NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE 17.3 Q-O-Q 0.7 Q-O-Q 19.0 VOLUME OF SALES Q-O-Q 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1 80 40 -20 60 0 20 -40 % MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION 80 40 -20 60 0 20 -40 % 80 40 50 -10 60 70 0 20 10 30 -20 % Business Optimism Index INDONESIA Quarter 1 2016 MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION ALL
  • 7. NEW ORDERS INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT 4.7 Q-O-Q 80 40 -20 60 0 20 -40 % 40 30 0 -30 20 10 -20 -10 -40 % 40 10 -5 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 -15 -10 % Business Optimism Index INDONESIA Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1 MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION 6.7 Q-O-Q 18.7 Q-O-Q
  • 8. Too Early for Signs of Green Shoots? under strain, as both residential and non-residential building activities have plateaued in recent months. Wholesale is the least optimistic given that export growth continues to be anemic. Corruption scandals,alarmist reports of capital outflows, the persistently low oil price, the deteriorating inflation outlook, and disappointing growth in China have all conspired to depress consumer sentiment. The fiscal stimulus in 2016 will be limited. Taxes for high-income earners will be raised, and the overall budget deficit is scheduled to decline, but infrastructure spending will be more frontloaded than previously announced. On the foreign exchange front, Malaysia’s fragile short- term liquidity profile makes the currency very vulnerable to any events that increase global risk-aversion. The currency is unlikely to strengthen under any scenario other than a sustained oil price recovery (which is improbable at the moment). Inflation is above target (and increasing), but the central bank is not in a position to raise rates, given the softening growth pattern. We have maintained our growth forecast of 4.5% for 2015, but lowered 2016 forecast to 4.7% (down from 5.2%). Following a historic trough in confidence, Malaysian firms rebounded into the expansionary zone for the new quarter. According to Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia’s latest Business Optimism Index (BOI), all six indicators have sprung into positive territory for Q1 2016. The overall index rose from -14.5% to +4.8% for Q1 on a q-o-q basis, though markedly lower than the level seen last year at +13.1%. – Both Volume of Sales and Net Profit experienced the largest q-o-q increases. As encouraging as this is, sentiments could be seasonal with Chinese New Year around the corner. The numbers are still significantly off the mark set a year ago, which suggests that broader weakness will be carried over to 2016. – Meanwhile, Selling Price eased from +10.5% in Q4 to +3.5% in Q1 2016. Most respondents do not expect to raise prices, as consumers are already grappling with reduced purchasing power due to the weak ringgit, higher taxes, and higher inflation. – New Orders for manufacturers reversed fortunes from -10.7% in Q4 to +8.1% in Q1 2016. Inventory finally edged above water after languishing for three consecutive quarters, rising from -8.0% in Q4 +0.5% in Q1 2016. – Employment is positive again, from -4.5% in Q4 to +2.0% in Q1 2016. Most sectors remain unchanged from last quarter, with Construction recording the steepest decline. It may be premature to ascertain that things will actually turn around for good as businesses tend to rake in more sales during the festive season. Services are expected to remain the strong pillar of the Malaysian economy while the once-rosy Construction sector is Q2 40 30 20 10 0 -20 -10 Q3 Q1 Q1 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 20162013 2014 OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q2 2013 – Q1 2016) BOISCORE Business Optimism Index MALAYSIA Quarter 1 2016
  • 9. VOLUME OF SALES NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE 80 0 40 -40 -100 60 -20 -80 20 -60 -120 80 40 -20 60 0 20 -40 80 0 40 -40 60 -20 20 -60 -80 % % % AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE Business Optimism Index MALAYSIA Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1 40.5 Q-O-Q 40.5 Q-O-Q 7.0 Q-O-Q
  • 10. NEW ORDERS 15 10 0 -10 5 -5 -15 % INVENTORY % EMPLOYMENT 40 30 10 -20 20 -10 0 -30 25 0 10 -10 -25 15 20 -5 -20 5 -15 -30 % 8.5 Q-O-Q MINING Business Optimism Index MALAYSIA Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1 AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE 6.5 Q-O-Q 18.8 Q-O-Q
  • 11. Spring Fever for Filipino Businesses Expectations Survey revealed that business sentiment hit a two-year high in Q4, supported by a range of factors including rising sales and orders. Confidence was highest among businesses in the Wholesale & Retail trade sector. The Philippines remains one of the fastest growing countries in the region. Overall, D&B maintains a broadly upbeat view of the economy and continue to expect full- year growth of 5.8% in 2015, followed by a slightly stronger expansion of 6.2% in 2016. While uncertainty over who will succeed current president Benigno Aquino could dampen investor sentiment to some degree in the short term, we expect improvements to the business environment will continue to be made after he leaves office. Indeed, all of the major candidates have indicated their intention to pursue further liberalisation should they win the election. While consumer price growth remains below the central bank’s 2-4% target range, the central bank has sufficient room to tighten monetary policy should inflation accelerate rapidly, as interest rates are at close to historic lows and the economy is growing at a healthy pace. Businesses are upbeat for the coming spring. They bounced back from Q4 and rose 14% for the first quarter of 2016. The Business Optimism Index (BOI) stands at 66%, the highest in the ASEAN region for all key markets surveyed by Dun & Bradstreet. Almost 70% of respondents have increased expectations while only 3% decreased. The rest were unchanged.All the parameters grew convincingly in Q1 from the preceding quarter; four of them by double digits. – Volume of Sales inched up by 0.7 to a high 81%. Net Profit rose by 7 percentage points to 80%. Wholesale, Construction and Services are riding on the wave of optimism. – Selling Price went up by 17%. Higher food prices are largely responsible for driving the rise in inflation. Consumer prices rose at the fastest pace so far this year, indicating that inflationary pressures are gradually building. – New Orders climbed 16 percentage points to 77% in Q1, led by Wholesale and Services. Inventory jumped 23 percentage points, with strong upticks in Mining, Wholesale and Manufacturing. – Employment hit above 50% confidence level for the first time, reaching 59%. This is an increase of 22% from the previous quarter, with almost all sectors showing expansion. On y-o-y basis, it is an increase of 35%. Two other surveys corroborated the findings above. According to the central bank’s Q4 Consumer Expectations Survey, consumer confidence has hit its highest level since the third quarter of 2013. Lower unemployment and an improving economy are two key factors that are supporting sentiment. Meanwhile, the central bank’s Business 80 60 40 20 0 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q1 2015 2016 OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q1 2015 – Q1 2016) BOISCORE Business Optimism Index PHILIPPINES Quarter 1 2016 6.5 6 5.5 4.5 5 GDPGROWTH(%) Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
  • 12. 120 80 40 100 60 20 0 120 80 40 100 60 20 0 80 40 60 0 -60 20 -40 -20 -80 % % % Business Optimism Index PHILIPPINES Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1VOLUME OF SALES NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE 17.3 Q-O-Q 7.0 Q-O-Q 0.7 Q-O-Q
  • 13. % 150 0 -100 100 50 -50 -150 % 120 80 40 100 60 20 0 % 120 80 100 40 -20 60 0 20 -40 Business Optimism Index PHILIPPINES Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1 AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE NEW ORDERS INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT 22.0 Q-O-Q 22.5 Q-O-Q 16.0 Q-O-Q
  • 14. Chips Stay Down for Manufacturing term. Our previous Q4 2015 report had forecasted hard knocks for the sector. It is the least optimistic sector with all six parameters in contraction,due to a sustained decline in output, most notably in the transport engineering, electronics and precision engineering segments. Survey findings also reveal that the outlook of construction firms has dampened for Q1 2016. Given that global risks are likely to be skewed downside, optimism levels could remain muted in the months ahead. Dun & Bradstreet takes the view that the resiliency of the Singapore consumer will help to support near- term growth and absorb some of the weakness in the Manufacturing segment. In addition, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has shifted the main policy band in October by reducing the slope of the Singapore dollar’s appreciation. This movement toward a more accommodative policy measure will help to stimulate Singapore’s export market. A movement toward further accommodation remains likely given the current deflationary environment. The current weakness in Singapore’s real GDP should be considered a blip and growth will return to 2.3% in 2016. Greater pessimism is felt across local businesses due primarily to constrained global demand as well as prolonged weakness and flat growth in the Manufacturing and Wholesale sectors. According to Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB), which operates under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore, the overall index hit a historic multi-year low as it fell into negative territory from 0.14% in Q4 2015 to -2.93% in Q1 2016. On a y-o-y basis, the index slid 4.04% from the corresponding quarter last year. – Both Volume of Sales and Net Profits deteriorated further in Q1 2016, by 2.75% and 4.92% respectively. Local firms are treading cautiously into 2016. Merely 6% of those surveyed expects to increase investment for business expansion while the vast majority stays unchanged. – Selling Price is the only parameter which is expansionary, climbing from -6.43% in Q4 to +4.93% in Q1 2016. There is also a marginal improvement on y-o-y basis of 0.64%. – Two other parameters fell into the red. New Orders for manufacturers remain contractionary, plunging from -22.22% in Q4 to a new depth of -56.0% in Q1 2016. Overall new orders for all sectors also lost ground, at -2.11%. Inventory slipped by 4.25% in Q1 2016. – Employment took a large hit of almost 20%. Nevertheless the survey also found that 38% of respondents cited skills upgrading of employees as the most important area of investment for 2016, slightly above machinery and capital equipment (37%). Manufacturing, which accounts for between 18-20% of annual GDP, will continue to be a drag over the near Q1 40 30 35 25 20 10 15 -5 0 5 Q3 Q1 Q1 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 20162013 2014 OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q1 2013 – Q1 2016) BOISCORE Business Optimism Index SINGAPORE Quarter 1 2016
  • 15. 60 -20 20 -60 40 -40 0 -80 80 40 0 -60 20 -40 60 -20 -80 100 20 60 20 -80 80 0 -60 40 -40 -100 % % % Business Optimism Index SINGAPORE Quarter 1 2016 VOLUME OF SALES NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1 AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE 4.9 Q-O-Q 2.7 Q-O-Q 11.4 Q-O-Q
  • 16. 20 -10 10 -30 -20 -50 0 -40 -60 % 80 40 0 20 60 -20 -40 % 80 0 40 -40 60 -20 20 -60 % MINING Business Optimism Index SINGAPORE Quarter 1 2016 NEW ORDERS INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1 AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE 19.9 Q-O-Q 4.2 Q-O-Q 33.8 Q-O-Q
  • 17. Economic Stimulus Starts to Bear Fruit Stimulus measures focusing on SMEs and low income earners are showing more concrete outcome, such as the development of government-sector infrastructure (1.7 trillion baht), assistance for IT retail businesses like 4G services, and the 10 Clusters Support policy. Consequently, the Government is aiming to reduce logistics costs per GDP by not less than 2% in all modes of transportation: railways, elevated trains, motorways, and Phase 2 of Suvarnabhumi Airport. Pump priming and 20% increase in the investment budget will spur private-sector investment and consumption. Nonetheless, household incomes in the Agriculture sector are still low due to weak commodity prices. The ratio of household debts remains high, and the drought problem persists. Terrorism has affected the trade atmosphere, and international investment has stagnated. On the other hand, Tourism is set to welcome about 32.2 million foreign tourists, with those from China, continuing to rise satisfactorily. Construction should expand by 10% this year. Oil prices mired below US$40 per barrel will stabilize the price of raw materials, especially steel bars.The steadily weakening baht should also help baht-designated exports. According to Dun & Bradstreet, almost all business confidence parameters went up compared to the last quarter, though they are still shy of the levels last year. Utilities and Wholesale & Retail sectors had the brightest outlook, showing sizable increases in most categories. Mining and Agriculture & Fishing suffered heavy fall in almost all indices. – Both Volume of Sales and Net Profits moved in tandem, and increased from -12% last quarter to 7% in Q1 2016. But on y-o-y basis, both declined by 21% and 20% respectively. Respondents in Utilities had the best outlook, forecasting a net increase of 33%, followed by Wholesale & Retail. Mining fared the worst followed by Agriculture & Fishing. – Selling Price held on to its position, budging by merely 1% from last quarter. On y-o-y basis, it had plunged by 14%. Services had the most positive direction, followed by Wholesale & Retail. Mining projected a net fall of 15% in Q1, followed by construction (-10%). – New Orders is back to black after a contractionary quarter, and increased by 10%. On y-o-y basis, it had dropped by 18%. Services is the most favorable sector, expecting a net gain of 25%. This is followed by Utilities (+22%). Inventory improved from -10% last quarter to -2% in Q1 2016, and also performed better by 2% on y-o-y basis. – Employment enjoyed a quarterly gain of 9% in Q1 2016, with 19% of respondents predicting an increase, 12% decrease and 68% foreseeing no change. Utilities is the most optimistic, with net growth of 44% followed by Construction (40%), in contrast with Agriculture & Fishing (-8%). 20 15 10 5 0 -10 -5 Q3 Q1 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 20162014 OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q4 2014 – Q1 2016) BOISCORE Business Optimism Index THAILAND Quarter 1 2016
  • 18. 120 100 40 20 -40 80 60 -20 0 -60 % ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE 120 100 40 20 -40 80 60 -20 0 -60 % 100 80 60 0 20 40 -20 % Business Optimism Index THAILAND Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1VOLUME OF SALES NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE 1.0 Q-O-Q 19.0 Q-O-Q 19.0 Q-O-Q
  • 19. 100 80 20 0 -60 60 40 -40 -20 -80 % 40 30 20 -10 -20 -50 10 0 -40 -30 -60 % 120 100 40 20 -40 80 60 -20 0 -60 % Business Optimism Index THAILAND Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1NEW ORDERS INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE 9.0 Q-O-Q 8.0 Q-O-Q 10.0 Q-O-Q
  • 20. Fast-Track Growth Takes a Pit Stop (see chart below). Therefore we view this as cyclical in nature and expect the readings to pick up in Q2. Recent fluctuations in the exchange rate may also have cast shadows on the business environment, specifically for Manufacturing. Overall, Vietnam’s economic performance is on the acceleration track. Growth is estimated about 6.5% at least, with Industry & Construction projected to grow at 10%. D&B sees a number of factors supporting growth over the next few years. The first is strong exports, amid the continued relocation of low-end manufacturing from China to lower-cost regional locations. Even though exports from most emerging markets contracted in 2015, Vietnamese exports have still grown at close to double-digit pace. The other factor is loose monetary policy. Low inflation has given the central bank scope to keep interest rates low. Meanwhile, the banking sector is showing gradual signs of recovery. Credit growth is accelerating while the level of non-performing loans is down sharply. From the outset, there does not seem to be much to cheer from the latest business confidence numbers released by Dun & Bradstreet Vietnam, as all six parameters fell and across all sectors. But at a closer look, the slump is most likely a seasonal correction which will rebound next quarter. The overall index was slashed by half from 45% to 22% in Q1 2016, after hovering above 40% for two consecutive quarters. – Net Profit suffered the largest drop from 88% to 43% in Q1 2016. Volume of Sales moved in the same direction but in a slightly lesser range, from 71% to 36%. Deep cuts are felt in Construction, Mining, and Manufacturing. – Selling Price kept to almost the same level at 2%, compared to 3% last quarter. This is the largest drop among the parameters on y-o-y basis (10 percentage points), and is rather obvious given the very low inflation this year (estimated to be less than 1%). – New Orders plunged from 67% to 29% in Q1 2016, though it should be noted that Services, Transportation, Communication and Utilities held up fairly well. Change in Inventory level is milder with 12 percentage points down (from 20% to 8%). – Employment recorded a 4 percentage point downward adjustment, from 20% to 16%. In y-o-y terms, this is actually the largest increase (11 percentage points), buttressed by stable and positive economic outlook for the year. When compared y-o-y, these changes are rather mild, within +/- 10 percentage points or less in most cases. Even the overall score is similar to Q1 2015. In fact, similar drops are observed for Q1 in the last two years Q4 50 40 30 20 0 10 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 2015 201620142013 OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q4 2013 – Q1 2016) BOISCORE 8 5 7 6 4 3 2 0 1 GDPGROWTH(%) Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %) Business Optimism Index VIETNAM Quarter 1 2016
  • 21. 100 60 80 40 10 90 50 20 70 30 0 % MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION 100 60 80 40 10 90 50 20 70 30 0 % 25 15 5 -10 10 -5 20 0 -15 % Business Optimism Index VIETNAM Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1VOLUME OF SALES NET PROFIT SELLING PRICE 1.0 Q-O-Q 41.0 Q-O-Q 35.0 Q-O-Q
  • 22. MANUFACTURING ALLMINING WHOLESALE 90 60 80 40 10 50 20 70 30 0 % 50 30 40 20 5 45 25 10 35 15 0 % 40 20 10 -5 30 15 0 25 5 -10 % Business Optimism Index VIETNAM Quarter 1 2016 2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1NEW ORDERS INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION 35 4.0 Q-O-Q 12.0 Q-O-Q 28.0 Q-O-Q
  • 23. ABOUT DUN & BRADSTREET® (D&B) Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB) grows the most valuable relationships in business. By uncovering truth and meaning from data, we connect customers with the prospects, suppliers, clients and partners that matter most, and have since 1841. Nearly ninety percent of the Fortune 500, and companies of every size around the world, rely on our data, insights and analytics. For more about Dun & Bradstreet, visit DNB.com. © Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2016. All rights reserved. D&B BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (BOI) INDONESIA Analysis and commentary by Bayu Krisna Setyadi, Dun & Bradstreet Indonesia. For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.id, or contact our Customer Service Center at +62 21 5790 0979, or email us csr@dnb.co.id. MALAYSIA Analysis and commentary by Matthias Chen, Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia, with reference to D&B Country Insight Services. For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Matthias Chen at +65 6439 6670, or email dnb.marketing@dnb.com.sg. PHILIPPINES Analysis and commentary by Ian Velasco, Dun & Bradstreet Philippines, with reference to D&B Country Insight Services. For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.ph, or contact our Customer Service Center at +632 907 6080, or email us custservice@dnb.com.ph. SINGAPORE Analysis and commentary by Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau. Established in 2005, Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB) operates a database of local enterprises and their credit history to provide clients with the insight needed to build trust and improve the quality of business relationships with their customers, suppliers and business partners. SCCB operates under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore. For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Matthias Chen at +65 6439 6670, or email dnb.marketing@dnb.com.sg. THAILAND Analysis by Dun & Bradstreet Thailand. Commentary by Asst. Prof. Pannarai Sangvichien, Ms. Nitaya Limphaisa, Mr. Somnuk Assadornviseth, Ms Sariya Nuchanong, Ms. Banjertsak SanhaPuckdee, Huachiew Chalermprakiet University. For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.th, or contact our Customer Service Center at +662 657 3999 ext. 4200, or email us info@dnb.co.th. VIETNAM Analysis by Dun & Bradstreet Vietnam. Commentary by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Minh Ha, Dean of Post Graduate School, HCMC Open University, Vietnam. For more information, please visit www.dnbvietnam.com, or contact our Customer Service Center at +848 3911 7288, or email csvietnam@dnb.com.
  • 24. Market Intelligence to Navigate Market Risk D&B’s Country Insight Solutions monitor changes in the business environment of individual countries and forecast country- wide developments which may affect the level of risk or provide opportunities in the short to medium term. If your business trades overseas and needs up-to-date Credit, Political, Supply Chain risk, or Commercial insight, D&B’s country level solutions let you integrate our leading country data, predictive analysis and commercially relevant insight in your business processes to help you deliver a competitive advantage. Click here to see how you can benefit. Your VisionYour Vision Our Insight GROWING RELATIONSHIPS THROUGH DATA