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Beverage Alcohol
State of the Industry
Webinar
April, 2019
Beverage Alcohol Overview
-1.0% Vol. 2018
FMBs & Local Craft
Driving Category
+0.2% Vol. 2018
Rosé, Sparkling, &
Direct to Consumer
Driving Growth
+1.5% Vol. 2018
Tequila, American &
Irish Whiskey
Driving Growth
Spirits are directly eating into Beer’s share of alcohol consumption, while Wine’s share remains
relatively flat
Beverage Alcohol Category Overviews - 2018
49.0%
16.5%
34.5%
2018
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Spirits are directly eating into Beer’s share of alcohol consumption, while Wine’s share remains
relatively flat
135.5 Billion Servings*
+6.8 Billion Servings vs. 2011
*12 oz. beer, 5 oz. wine, 1.5 oz. spirits
Source: BMC Strategic Associates, IWSR, Beer Institute
Beverage Alcohol Categories – Share by Servings
-3.6 pts
vs. 2011
+0.5 pts
vs. 2011
+3.1 pts
vs. 2011
• Domestic lager contraction continues, while High-End
grows and Sub-Premium flattens
• Health & Wellness linked branding driving category
performance
• Craft maintaining ~5% annual growth, with revolving
lineup of leading players
• Growing varietals include: Sparkling (Prosecco), Rose, etc.
• Expansion of packaging options, especially single serve,
fueling the recruitment across more occasions
• Spirits growth outpaces Wine and beer for 8th consecutive
year led by Tequila & Whiskey
• Small categories incl. Mezcal & Cognac seeing largest
growth
• Craft gaining traction beyond novelty. Over 1,800 craft
distilleries in US.
Spirit Market Overview
-6-
All data in this portion of the presentation can be found in the following reports:
• BMC U.S. Spirits Guide 2019 – April 2019 Publication
• BMC U.S. Wine Guide 2019 – May 2019 Publication
• BMC U.S. Beer Guide 2019–July 2019 Publication
• On Premise Intelligence Report –October 2019 Publication
-7-
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Distilled Spirits Market
2010 – 2018
192.3
199.0
205.6
208.6
211.6
215.6
220.7
224.4
227.7
170.0
180.0
190.0
200.0
210.0
220.0
230.0
240.0
Millions of 9-Liter Cases
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
+3.5%
+3.1%
+1.5%
+1.5%
+1.9%
+2.4%
+1.7%
+1.5%
-8-
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Distilled Spirits Market
2011 – 2018
$63.1 $65.3
$67.8 $69.6
$72.2
$75.0
$77.6
$81.3
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
$90.0
Billions of Dollars
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
+3.5%
+3.7%
+2.6%
+3.6%
+3.9%
+3.9%
+4.7%
-9-
Adult beverage consumer attitudes
Bars and full-service restaurants are top locations for adult beverage occasions
• Slowed consumer traffic at on-premise locations and stagnancy in occasions involving adult beverages translated to a
preliminary 0.3% increase in total alcohol volume in restaurants and bars in 2018.
Major On-Premise Segments Struggle
• While there's declines across the casual chain segment, smaller independent full service restaurants have
momentum. There is also the threat from e-commerce which is aiding at home consumption
Aged non-whiskey spirits appeal
• Tracking with the relevance of whiskey, other spirits aged in barrels like Tequila are finding relevance with today’s
consumers in restaurants and bars. .
Vodka On Premise Struggles
• While still the largest-volume spirit on-premise, vodka is challenged by growing consumer affinity for more flavorful
spirits such as whiskey. Two segments that had been growth drivers for the category—imported and flavored—
continue to decline.
Key Insights
Source: Beverage Marketing Corp., Technomic Inc.
-10-
Flavor Feud:
Vodka vs. Whiskey
*includes flavored whiskey and whiskey specialty cordials/liqueurs
23.3%
11.4%
-0.3% -1.4% -0.2% -0.3% -0.5% -0.9%
56.3%
37.9%
35.2%
40.7%
33.4%
6.2% 6.9% 4.8%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Flavored Vodka Flavored Whiskey*
Volume Growth
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
+470K
cases
(-)170K
Cases
-11-
Flavor Feud:
Vodka vs. Whiskey
*includes flavored whiskey and whiskey specialty cordials/liqueurs
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
71
78
63
32
26
20 17
12
3
12
21
25
15 12
7
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Flavored Vodka Flavored Whiskey*
Product Introductions
-12-
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Spirits Category Volume by Type
2011– 2018
VolumeinThousandsofCases
Non-Whiskey
+1.7%
Whiskey
+2.6%
2011-2018 CAGR
Since 2013 growth of Whiskey has either equaled or surpassed that of Non-Whiskey, a
trend not seen in decades
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-13-
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Whiskey Category Volume by Type
2011- 2018
VolumeinThousandsofCases
Straight American
Whiskey
+6.1%
Canadian Whisky -
0.8%
Scotch Whisky
-0.1%
Blended American
-2.1%
Irish Whiskey
+14.6%
2011-2018 CAGR
While Whiskey is helping drive the overall industry, within it Straight American
Whiskey and Irish Whiskey are the drivers
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-14-
Number of Craft Spirits vs. Beer Producers
Comparative Time Periods
*Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier.
Source: TTB, ACSA
204 280
455
656
906 1,163
1,315
1,589
1,835
4,506
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Craft Spirits
199 247 284 312 359
446
601
858
1,149
1,545
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Craft Beer
• Craft spirits suppliers are growing at a faster rate than craft breweries at comparative time
periods
• If craft spirits grows at a similar rate 5 years out as craft breweries then the number of
suppliers would exceed 4,500 by 2023.
+31.6% CAGR +24.5% CAGR
-15-
Craft Spirits Share of
Overall Distilled Spirits Industry
*Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier.
Source: TTB, ACSA
0.8%
1.0% 1.2%
1.5%
1.8%
2.3%
2.6% 2.7%
3.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
Craft Share*
Craft Share
-16-
Craft Spirits Retail Sales by Value
*Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier.
Source: TTB, ACSA
$0.7 $0.8 $1.0
$1.3
$1.8
$2.4
$3.0
$3.7
$4.5
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
Billions of Dollars*
Craft Sales
-17-
With the growth of craft spirits over the last few years can we draw a comparison to craft beer and its long
term sustainability
• Since the Millennial generation is always seeking innovative flavorful products with a true brand story, craft spirits inherent
characteristics play right into that trend.
• Consumers are embracing smaller, craft and locally produced. Authenticity is the key word, messaging conveying authentic brand
story
Craft Beer vs. Craft Spirits
2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation, Brewers Association; DISCUS; ASCA
• Approximately 7,000 breweries , up over 2,400
from 2015
• 14% share of total beer
• +4% production increase, down from low 20’s in
2015
• Culture that has embraced locally brewed craft
beers has enticed more entrants into the
marketplace, as evidenced by the strong growth of
microbreweries ,brewpubs and on site brewery
tasting rooms
• 1,835 craft distilleries (+246 or 15.5% from ’17)
• Estimated at 3.1% of spirits
• About $300,000 to build facility
• Concentrated market with 2% of producers responsible for
60% of the case volume
• Wholesale channel could pose a barrier to growth
• Some of the early successful distilleries have been acquired
by larger producers , as mentioned earlier this is unlike the
early days of craft beer segment
Craft Beer Craft Spirits
Spirits Market Brief
-18-
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
On Premise Spirits Category Volume by Type
2011– 2018P
VolumeinThousandsofCases
Non-Whiskey
+0.3%
Whiskey
+0.9%
2011-2018P CAGR
Since 2011 growth of Whiskey in the On Premise is outpacing both non-whiskey and
the overall spirits market
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Wine Market Overview
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Wine Market
2011 – 2018P
338.1
345.6
353.1
357.8
360.9
362.2
366.5 370.5
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
Millions of 9-Liter Cases
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018p
+1.4%
+2.2%
+0.9%
+2.0%
+2.2%
+0.5% +0.2%
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Wine Market
2011 – 2018P
$42.5
$43.8
$45.2
$46.3
$47.2
$48.5
$49.2
$50.0
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
$50
$52
Billions of Dollars
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018p
+2.9%
+2.4%
+1.3% +2.7%
+3.3%
+2.0%
+1.5%
+1.6%
11.3%
13.6% 14.6%
19.1% 18.3% 17.8%
15.3%
17.7%
18.6%
27.1%
33.9% 33.3%
27.2%
16.5% 15.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011 2015 2018p
Super-Premium ($15.00 and above) Premium ($12.00-$14.99) Popular Premium ($9.00-$11.99)
Fighting Varietal ($6.00-$8.99) Value ($5.99 and below)
Table Wine Volume Sales by Price Tier
2011, 2015 & 2018p
Sweet spot for Millennial consumers
23.7%
22.4%
11.9%
13.6%
11.1%
8.9%
4.6%
7.7%
6.0%
7.4%
9.8%
5.8%5.1% 5.7%
1.4%
4.6%
26.4%
23.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2010 2018p
Chardonnay Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Pinot Grigio Pinot Noir White Zinfandel Blush/Rose' Red Blend Other
Table Wine Volume Sales by Varietal
2010 and 2018p
• Despite a lower share of Table Wine volume, Chardonnay has experienced an uptick in volume over the last
three years. It has ceded its share to faster growing varietals
• Red Blends share of Table Wine has increased to 4.7% in 2017 from 1.4% in 2010.
24%
25%
13%
17%
14%
19%
17%
16%
13%
16%
12%
12%
12%
9%
8%
19%
11%
20%
17%
13%
11%
12%
13%
12%
10%
11%
10%
6%
7%
3%
Rose
Merlot
Moscato
White zinfandel
Chardonnay
Cabernet sauvignon
Champagne/sparkling wine
Sangria
Red blend
White blend
Pinot grigio/gris
Pinot noir
Red zinfandel
Sauvignon blanc
Syrah/shiraz
Male Female
• Merlot, chardonnay
and Moscato lead
the category in
share of wine
varietals selected
for the most recent
away-from-home
occasion.
Type of Wine
Consumed
Base: 391 (respondents who ordered wine or wine cocktails); 156 (Male), 235 (Female)
Q: Which of the following types of wine did you drink? Which one was in the wine cocktail?
Select all that apply.
NA 21%
19% 17%
18% 17%
14% 17%
18% 14%
16% 14%
11% 14%
9% 14%
14% 13%
6% 13%
11% 12%
15% 11%
10% 8%
7% 8%
6% 5%
Overall %
2017 2018
Beer Market Overview
Current U.S. Beer Trends
The U.S. beer market continues to evolve as consumers’ tastes shift and evolve
Flagship Declines Accelerate
-6.7% -6.2% -3.8% -6.4%
Craft Market Growing Pains
Nationals Down Regionals Up Up & Comers
Accelerating Fragmentation
• Major players expanding portfolio to
include wine, spirits, etc.
• Local trend continues to drive
experimentation
Bifurcation of Market
High-End: +5% Sub-Premium: 0% Mainstream: -6%
Source: IRI, Beer Marketer’s Insights, BMC Strategic Associates
Hyper Locals
Blind to Outside Threat
• Focus on competition within category over greater threat from Wine, Spirits, and (potentially) Cannabis
Total beer is estimated to have declined 1.1% in depletion volume and 1.0% in shipments in 2018
U.S. Beer Market Volume Growth
FY 1990 – 2018
%Change
Note: Depletions total beer includes hard cider and non-alcoholic beer; shipments does not include domestic non-alcoholic beer
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
ShipmentsDepletions
2.7%
-2.3%
0.7% -0.2%
2.9%
2.3%
-0.1%
-1.9%
-0.9% -1.3%
1.2%
-0.9%
0.4%
0.3%
-0.5%
-1.3% -1.1%
0.7%
-0.3%
1.1%
-0.3%
2.2%
1.6%
0.2%
-2.1%
-0.5%
-1.3%
1.2%
-1.2%
0.6%
-0.2%
0.3%
-1.2% -1.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sub-
Premium,
32.2%
Mainstream,
39.1%
High-End,
28.7%
Sub-Premium
, 25.8%
Mainstream,
37.3%
High-End,
36.8%
Beer Market IRI MULO Volume Share by Price Segment
2014 vs. 2018
Note: High-End segment includes Import Brands, Malt-based ABAs, Hard Cider, and Craft
In 2018, the High-End continued to gain share, increasing 8.1 pts since 2014; meanwhile the Sub-
Premium reversed trends, leading to squeeze on Mainstream from both sides
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
20182014
Since 2012, the top 4 brewers in the US have lost a combined 7.1 share points in aggregate; this
would be worse without Constellation’s 4.5 point share gain
Top 4 Brewer’s U.S. Share Change Shipments 2012 – 2018 (E)
%Share
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation, Beer Marketer’s Insights, Beer Institute
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E
85.5% 85.2% 84.0% 83.0% 81.6% 79.1% 78.4%
Down 6.8%
Down 4.7%
Up 4.5%
Down 0.2%
Down 7.1%
Share vs. ‘12
STZ Share
of U.S. Market
HUSA Share
of U.S. Market
MC Share
of U.S. Market
ABI Share
of U.S. Market
The major players in the beer landscape have accelerated their NPD activity, seeking to exploit
whitespace as the market continues to fragment
Group 1:
Veterans Down
Group Archetypes
• Long Established brands,
previously driven growth
• National Distribution
• Struggling to capture
interest
• Chasing style trends
Group Archetypes
• 1.75M+ case volume
• Restrained distribution
• Remain revered for quality
and NPD
• Strong local & digital
engagement
Group Archetypes
• $1M+ through measured
channels, yet <1.75M vol.
• Distribution less than 20
states
• Balance between scale,
quality, & engagement
Group Archetypes
• Majority of distribution at
taprooms or e-commerce
• Driving innovation while
revered for quality
• Engages consumer at
unheard of rate
The craft category has maintained single digit growth despite double digit losses by leading players,
due to the strength of the category’s long tail
Current U.S. Craft Beer Landscape
Group 2:
Veterans Up
Group 3:
Up & Comers
Group 4:
Hyper Locals
Health and Wellness /
Functionality
E-commerce for beverage alcohol has been relegated to platforms such as Drizly, however craft
brewers are now bringing their 3-tier disruptive business models to the internet
Craft Beer E-Commerce
Model 1:
Traditional Shipping
Model 2:
Last Mile Fulfillment
Model 3:
3rd Party Platform
Breweries engage with partners to
act as their
e-commerce distributor.
Pros:
• Widest availability to reach
consumers
Cons:
• Operating in gray area
• Cannot ship to many key
markets
• Platforms act as distributors not
fulfillment partners
Examples:
Tavour, Bruisin’ Ales
Breweries engage a local
last-mile delivery service to fulfill
web orders
Pros:
• Full customization of customer
experience
• Additional oversight of delivery
process
Cons:
• Potential direct competition with
existing distributor(s)
Examples:
Beer Here (Mikkeller NYC),
Dudley Direct (Tired Hands),
Breweries engage established e-
commerce delivery courier service
platform
Pros:
• Platforms have established user
base for other products
• Additional oversight of delivery
process
Cons:
• Operating footprint limited to
courier range from brewery
Examples:
Threes Brewing (Caviar)
Ballast Point (Postmates)
Craft Beer Packaging Trends
Craft packaging is seeing big swings in share as more brewers adopt cans for their primary package
Source: Brewer’s Association, Beverage Marketing Corporation
Cans
19.2-oz Cans
15-Pack Suitcases
16-oz 4-Packs
Bottles
Large Format
“Bombers”
Variety Packs
“Mix Six Packs”
Thank You
• Strategic Associates
• Research
• Advisors
ngreene@beveragemarketing.com
eschmidt@beveragemarketing.com
Beverage Marketing Corporation

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BMC State of the US Alcoholic Beverage Industry 2019

  • 1. Beverage Alcohol State of the Industry Webinar April, 2019
  • 3. -1.0% Vol. 2018 FMBs & Local Craft Driving Category +0.2% Vol. 2018 Rosé, Sparkling, & Direct to Consumer Driving Growth +1.5% Vol. 2018 Tequila, American & Irish Whiskey Driving Growth Spirits are directly eating into Beer’s share of alcohol consumption, while Wine’s share remains relatively flat Beverage Alcohol Category Overviews - 2018
  • 4. 49.0% 16.5% 34.5% 2018 Beer Wine Spirits Spirits are directly eating into Beer’s share of alcohol consumption, while Wine’s share remains relatively flat 135.5 Billion Servings* +6.8 Billion Servings vs. 2011 *12 oz. beer, 5 oz. wine, 1.5 oz. spirits Source: BMC Strategic Associates, IWSR, Beer Institute Beverage Alcohol Categories – Share by Servings -3.6 pts vs. 2011 +0.5 pts vs. 2011 +3.1 pts vs. 2011 • Domestic lager contraction continues, while High-End grows and Sub-Premium flattens • Health & Wellness linked branding driving category performance • Craft maintaining ~5% annual growth, with revolving lineup of leading players • Growing varietals include: Sparkling (Prosecco), Rose, etc. • Expansion of packaging options, especially single serve, fueling the recruitment across more occasions • Spirits growth outpaces Wine and beer for 8th consecutive year led by Tequila & Whiskey • Small categories incl. Mezcal & Cognac seeing largest growth • Craft gaining traction beyond novelty. Over 1,800 craft distilleries in US.
  • 6. -6- All data in this portion of the presentation can be found in the following reports: • BMC U.S. Spirits Guide 2019 – April 2019 Publication • BMC U.S. Wine Guide 2019 – May 2019 Publication • BMC U.S. Beer Guide 2019–July 2019 Publication • On Premise Intelligence Report –October 2019 Publication
  • 7. -7- Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Distilled Spirits Market 2010 – 2018 192.3 199.0 205.6 208.6 211.6 215.6 220.7 224.4 227.7 170.0 180.0 190.0 200.0 210.0 220.0 230.0 240.0 Millions of 9-Liter Cases 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 +3.5% +3.1% +1.5% +1.5% +1.9% +2.4% +1.7% +1.5%
  • 8. -8- P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Distilled Spirits Market 2011 – 2018 $63.1 $65.3 $67.8 $69.6 $72.2 $75.0 $77.6 $81.3 $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0 $90.0 Billions of Dollars 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 +3.5% +3.7% +2.6% +3.6% +3.9% +3.9% +4.7%
  • 9. -9- Adult beverage consumer attitudes Bars and full-service restaurants are top locations for adult beverage occasions • Slowed consumer traffic at on-premise locations and stagnancy in occasions involving adult beverages translated to a preliminary 0.3% increase in total alcohol volume in restaurants and bars in 2018. Major On-Premise Segments Struggle • While there's declines across the casual chain segment, smaller independent full service restaurants have momentum. There is also the threat from e-commerce which is aiding at home consumption Aged non-whiskey spirits appeal • Tracking with the relevance of whiskey, other spirits aged in barrels like Tequila are finding relevance with today’s consumers in restaurants and bars. . Vodka On Premise Struggles • While still the largest-volume spirit on-premise, vodka is challenged by growing consumer affinity for more flavorful spirits such as whiskey. Two segments that had been growth drivers for the category—imported and flavored— continue to decline. Key Insights Source: Beverage Marketing Corp., Technomic Inc.
  • 10. -10- Flavor Feud: Vodka vs. Whiskey *includes flavored whiskey and whiskey specialty cordials/liqueurs 23.3% 11.4% -0.3% -1.4% -0.2% -0.3% -0.5% -0.9% 56.3% 37.9% 35.2% 40.7% 33.4% 6.2% 6.9% 4.8% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Flavored Vodka Flavored Whiskey* Volume Growth Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation +470K cases (-)170K Cases
  • 11. -11- Flavor Feud: Vodka vs. Whiskey *includes flavored whiskey and whiskey specialty cordials/liqueurs Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation 71 78 63 32 26 20 17 12 3 12 21 25 15 12 7 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Flavored Vodka Flavored Whiskey* Product Introductions
  • 12. -12- Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Spirits Category Volume by Type 2011– 2018 VolumeinThousandsofCases Non-Whiskey +1.7% Whiskey +2.6% 2011-2018 CAGR Since 2013 growth of Whiskey has either equaled or surpassed that of Non-Whiskey, a trend not seen in decades - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 13. -13- Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Whiskey Category Volume by Type 2011- 2018 VolumeinThousandsofCases Straight American Whiskey +6.1% Canadian Whisky - 0.8% Scotch Whisky -0.1% Blended American -2.1% Irish Whiskey +14.6% 2011-2018 CAGR While Whiskey is helping drive the overall industry, within it Straight American Whiskey and Irish Whiskey are the drivers 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 14. -14- Number of Craft Spirits vs. Beer Producers Comparative Time Periods *Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier. Source: TTB, ACSA 204 280 455 656 906 1,163 1,315 1,589 1,835 4,506 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Craft Spirits 199 247 284 312 359 446 601 858 1,149 1,545 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Craft Beer • Craft spirits suppliers are growing at a faster rate than craft breweries at comparative time periods • If craft spirits grows at a similar rate 5 years out as craft breweries then the number of suppliers would exceed 4,500 by 2023. +31.6% CAGR +24.5% CAGR
  • 15. -15- Craft Spirits Share of Overall Distilled Spirits Industry *Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier. Source: TTB, ACSA 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P Craft Share* Craft Share
  • 16. -16- Craft Spirits Retail Sales by Value *Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier. Source: TTB, ACSA $0.7 $0.8 $1.0 $1.3 $1.8 $2.4 $3.0 $3.7 $4.5 $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P Billions of Dollars* Craft Sales
  • 17. -17- With the growth of craft spirits over the last few years can we draw a comparison to craft beer and its long term sustainability • Since the Millennial generation is always seeking innovative flavorful products with a true brand story, craft spirits inherent characteristics play right into that trend. • Consumers are embracing smaller, craft and locally produced. Authenticity is the key word, messaging conveying authentic brand story Craft Beer vs. Craft Spirits 2018 Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation, Brewers Association; DISCUS; ASCA • Approximately 7,000 breweries , up over 2,400 from 2015 • 14% share of total beer • +4% production increase, down from low 20’s in 2015 • Culture that has embraced locally brewed craft beers has enticed more entrants into the marketplace, as evidenced by the strong growth of microbreweries ,brewpubs and on site brewery tasting rooms • 1,835 craft distilleries (+246 or 15.5% from ’17) • Estimated at 3.1% of spirits • About $300,000 to build facility • Concentrated market with 2% of producers responsible for 60% of the case volume • Wholesale channel could pose a barrier to growth • Some of the early successful distilleries have been acquired by larger producers , as mentioned earlier this is unlike the early days of craft beer segment Craft Beer Craft Spirits Spirits Market Brief
  • 18. -18- Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation On Premise Spirits Category Volume by Type 2011– 2018P VolumeinThousandsofCases Non-Whiskey +0.3% Whiskey +0.9% 2011-2018P CAGR Since 2011 growth of Whiskey in the On Premise is outpacing both non-whiskey and the overall spirits market 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 20. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Wine Market 2011 – 2018P 338.1 345.6 353.1 357.8 360.9 362.2 366.5 370.5 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 Millions of 9-Liter Cases 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p +1.4% +2.2% +0.9% +2.0% +2.2% +0.5% +0.2%
  • 21. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Wine Market 2011 – 2018P $42.5 $43.8 $45.2 $46.3 $47.2 $48.5 $49.2 $50.0 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48 $50 $52 Billions of Dollars 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p +2.9% +2.4% +1.3% +2.7% +3.3% +2.0% +1.5% +1.6%
  • 22. 11.3% 13.6% 14.6% 19.1% 18.3% 17.8% 15.3% 17.7% 18.6% 27.1% 33.9% 33.3% 27.2% 16.5% 15.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2011 2015 2018p Super-Premium ($15.00 and above) Premium ($12.00-$14.99) Popular Premium ($9.00-$11.99) Fighting Varietal ($6.00-$8.99) Value ($5.99 and below) Table Wine Volume Sales by Price Tier 2011, 2015 & 2018p Sweet spot for Millennial consumers
  • 23. 23.7% 22.4% 11.9% 13.6% 11.1% 8.9% 4.6% 7.7% 6.0% 7.4% 9.8% 5.8%5.1% 5.7% 1.4% 4.6% 26.4% 23.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2010 2018p Chardonnay Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Pinot Grigio Pinot Noir White Zinfandel Blush/Rose' Red Blend Other Table Wine Volume Sales by Varietal 2010 and 2018p • Despite a lower share of Table Wine volume, Chardonnay has experienced an uptick in volume over the last three years. It has ceded its share to faster growing varietals • Red Blends share of Table Wine has increased to 4.7% in 2017 from 1.4% in 2010.
  • 24. 24% 25% 13% 17% 14% 19% 17% 16% 13% 16% 12% 12% 12% 9% 8% 19% 11% 20% 17% 13% 11% 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 10% 6% 7% 3% Rose Merlot Moscato White zinfandel Chardonnay Cabernet sauvignon Champagne/sparkling wine Sangria Red blend White blend Pinot grigio/gris Pinot noir Red zinfandel Sauvignon blanc Syrah/shiraz Male Female • Merlot, chardonnay and Moscato lead the category in share of wine varietals selected for the most recent away-from-home occasion. Type of Wine Consumed Base: 391 (respondents who ordered wine or wine cocktails); 156 (Male), 235 (Female) Q: Which of the following types of wine did you drink? Which one was in the wine cocktail? Select all that apply. NA 21% 19% 17% 18% 17% 14% 17% 18% 14% 16% 14% 11% 14% 9% 14% 14% 13% 6% 13% 11% 12% 15% 11% 10% 8% 7% 8% 6% 5% Overall % 2017 2018
  • 26. Current U.S. Beer Trends The U.S. beer market continues to evolve as consumers’ tastes shift and evolve Flagship Declines Accelerate -6.7% -6.2% -3.8% -6.4% Craft Market Growing Pains Nationals Down Regionals Up Up & Comers Accelerating Fragmentation • Major players expanding portfolio to include wine, spirits, etc. • Local trend continues to drive experimentation Bifurcation of Market High-End: +5% Sub-Premium: 0% Mainstream: -6% Source: IRI, Beer Marketer’s Insights, BMC Strategic Associates Hyper Locals Blind to Outside Threat • Focus on competition within category over greater threat from Wine, Spirits, and (potentially) Cannabis
  • 27. Total beer is estimated to have declined 1.1% in depletion volume and 1.0% in shipments in 2018 U.S. Beer Market Volume Growth FY 1990 – 2018 %Change Note: Depletions total beer includes hard cider and non-alcoholic beer; shipments does not include domestic non-alcoholic beer Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation ShipmentsDepletions 2.7% -2.3% 0.7% -0.2% 2.9% 2.3% -0.1% -1.9% -0.9% -1.3% 1.2% -0.9% 0.4% 0.3% -0.5% -1.3% -1.1% 0.7% -0.3% 1.1% -0.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.2% -2.1% -0.5% -1.3% 1.2% -1.2% 0.6% -0.2% 0.3% -1.2% -1.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 28. Sub- Premium, 32.2% Mainstream, 39.1% High-End, 28.7% Sub-Premium , 25.8% Mainstream, 37.3% High-End, 36.8% Beer Market IRI MULO Volume Share by Price Segment 2014 vs. 2018 Note: High-End segment includes Import Brands, Malt-based ABAs, Hard Cider, and Craft In 2018, the High-End continued to gain share, increasing 8.1 pts since 2014; meanwhile the Sub- Premium reversed trends, leading to squeeze on Mainstream from both sides Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation 20182014
  • 29. Since 2012, the top 4 brewers in the US have lost a combined 7.1 share points in aggregate; this would be worse without Constellation’s 4.5 point share gain Top 4 Brewer’s U.S. Share Change Shipments 2012 – 2018 (E) %Share Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation, Beer Marketer’s Insights, Beer Institute 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E 85.5% 85.2% 84.0% 83.0% 81.6% 79.1% 78.4% Down 6.8% Down 4.7% Up 4.5% Down 0.2% Down 7.1% Share vs. ‘12 STZ Share of U.S. Market HUSA Share of U.S. Market MC Share of U.S. Market ABI Share of U.S. Market
  • 30. The major players in the beer landscape have accelerated their NPD activity, seeking to exploit whitespace as the market continues to fragment
  • 31. Group 1: Veterans Down Group Archetypes • Long Established brands, previously driven growth • National Distribution • Struggling to capture interest • Chasing style trends Group Archetypes • 1.75M+ case volume • Restrained distribution • Remain revered for quality and NPD • Strong local & digital engagement Group Archetypes • $1M+ through measured channels, yet <1.75M vol. • Distribution less than 20 states • Balance between scale, quality, & engagement Group Archetypes • Majority of distribution at taprooms or e-commerce • Driving innovation while revered for quality • Engages consumer at unheard of rate The craft category has maintained single digit growth despite double digit losses by leading players, due to the strength of the category’s long tail Current U.S. Craft Beer Landscape Group 2: Veterans Up Group 3: Up & Comers Group 4: Hyper Locals
  • 32. Health and Wellness / Functionality E-commerce for beverage alcohol has been relegated to platforms such as Drizly, however craft brewers are now bringing their 3-tier disruptive business models to the internet Craft Beer E-Commerce Model 1: Traditional Shipping Model 2: Last Mile Fulfillment Model 3: 3rd Party Platform Breweries engage with partners to act as their e-commerce distributor. Pros: • Widest availability to reach consumers Cons: • Operating in gray area • Cannot ship to many key markets • Platforms act as distributors not fulfillment partners Examples: Tavour, Bruisin’ Ales Breweries engage a local last-mile delivery service to fulfill web orders Pros: • Full customization of customer experience • Additional oversight of delivery process Cons: • Potential direct competition with existing distributor(s) Examples: Beer Here (Mikkeller NYC), Dudley Direct (Tired Hands), Breweries engage established e- commerce delivery courier service platform Pros: • Platforms have established user base for other products • Additional oversight of delivery process Cons: • Operating footprint limited to courier range from brewery Examples: Threes Brewing (Caviar) Ballast Point (Postmates)
  • 33. Craft Beer Packaging Trends Craft packaging is seeing big swings in share as more brewers adopt cans for their primary package Source: Brewer’s Association, Beverage Marketing Corporation Cans 19.2-oz Cans 15-Pack Suitcases 16-oz 4-Packs Bottles Large Format “Bombers” Variety Packs “Mix Six Packs”
  • 34. Thank You • Strategic Associates • Research • Advisors ngreene@beveragemarketing.com eschmidt@beveragemarketing.com Beverage Marketing Corporation