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Sakura Ken
Big Data Analysis Suggests COVID
Vaccination Increases Excess Mortality Of
North Temperate Zone Countries
Outline
• Concerns on COVID Vaccines
• Abnormal Excess Mortality Around The World
• Vaccine Side E
ff
ects, Post-COVID Sequelae A
ff
ecting Excess Mortality? — A
Big Data Analysis
Concerns on COVID vaccines
• Insu
ffi
cient development time, long-term side e
ff
ects unknown.
• Major component is spike protein, proven cytotoxicity alone [1], able to
reproduce important aspects of pathogenesis after SARS-CoV-2 infection [2].
• Causes cardiovascular disease (myocarditis risk equivalent to infection
among young people [3])
• Long-term immunization e
ff
ect turns negative, the more vaccinated, the more
likely to be infected[4]. (More in Appendix)
[1] https://www.salk.edu/news-release/the-novel-coronavirus-spike-protein-plays-additional-key-role-in-illness/
[2] Old
fi
eld PR et al. How Does Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 A
ff
ect the Brain and Its Implications for the Vaccines Currently in Use. Vaccines. 2022; 10(1):1. https://doi.org/
10.3390/vaccines10010001
[3] Patone M et al. Risks of myocarditis, pericarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias associated with COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nat Med. 2022 Feb;28(2):410-422. doi: 10.1038/
s41591-021-01630-0. Epub 2021 Dec 14. PMID: 34907393; PMCID: PMC8863574.
[4] Nabin K Shrestha and others, E
ff
ectiveness of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Bivalent Vaccine, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Volume 10, Issue 6, June 2023, ofad209, https://doi.org/10.1093/
o
fi
d/ofad209
Concerns on COVID vaccines
• The vaccinated more susceptible to infection in long-term → increased
COVID mortality
• Vaccine long-term side e
ff
ects → increased side e
ff
ect mortality
—> Increase Long-term excess mortality ?
Outline
• Concerns on COVID Vaccines
• Abnormal Excess Mortality Around The World
• Vaccine Side E
ff
ects, Post-COVID Sequelae A
ff
ecting Excess Mortality? — A
Big Data Analysis
Excess Mortality Around the World - UK
10%~20%
excess mortality
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
COVID-death decreases,
excess mortality stays high.
Excess Mortality Around the World - UK (2021,2022)
Average : ~10% 10%~20% excess mortality
Pandemic level or even more
2021 2022
Excess Mortality Around the World - Other Countries (1)
Gap between Excess mortality and COVID death
in increasing trend ??
Excess Mortality Around the World - Other Countries (2)
Gap between Excess mortality and COVID death
in increasing trend ??
Outline
• Concerns on COVID Vaccines
• Abnormal Excess Mortality Around The World
• Vaccine Side E
ff
ects or Post-COVID Sequelae A
ff
ecting Excess Mortality? —
A Big Data Analysis
• COVID deaths
• Vaccine-related Variables
• Lethal post-COVID sequelae e
ff
ect
• Pull forward e
ff
ects (PFE)
Variables Related To Excess Mortality
• COVID deaths (7-day average)
• Vaccine-related variables (which can express side e
ff
ects time elapsed since
vaccination)
• Variables related to “lethal post-COVID sequelae e
ff
ect” (ever-infected rate or
N-antibody possession rate)
• Pull forward e
ff
ect : excess death being caused by COVID will result in de
fi
cit
mortality in the future
Vaccine-related Variables
VA-PVP : Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period
• Assume all doses to have the same type(brand). And side e
ff
ect changes
similarly along time periods after vaccination.
• Meaning of variable: how many vaccination amount is in a certain post-
vaccination period.
VA-PVP
Variables
De
fi
nition
alldose_1_3m x% vaccination at 1-3 months period
alldose_4_6m x% vaccination at 4-6 months period
… …
alldose_22_24m x% vaccination at 22-24 months period
alldose_25m+ x% vaccination at 25 months or longer period
Vaccine-related Variables
VA-PVP : Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period
• Assume all doses to have the same type(brand). And side e
ff
ect changes
similarly along time periods after vaccination.
• Meaning of variable: how many vaccination amount is in a certain post-
vaccination period.
VA-PVP
Variables
De
fi
nition
alldose_1_3m x% vaccination at 1-3 months period
alldose_4_6m x% vaccination at 4-6 months period
… …
alldose_22_24m x% vaccination at 22-24 months period
alldose_25m+ x% vaccination at 25 months or longer period
To show :
• Positively correlation with Excess mortality or not
• Correlation is in increasing trend or not
VA-PVP
Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period
• Eg1. 2021.01.01, vaccination started, and 1% vaccinated on 2021.01.01
• 2021.01.01: alldose_1_3m = 1%
• 2021.04.01: alldose_4_6m = 1%
• Eg2. Date xxxx.xx.xx, total vaccination rate = 60%
Date alldose_1_3m alldose_4_6m alldose_7_9m alldose_10_12m alldose_13m+
xxxx.xx.xx 2% 13% 25% 15% 5%
Post-COVID sequelae effect Related Variables
• High ever-infected rate → more lethal post-COVID sequelae → increase
excess mortality
[1] https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/121968
3544 deaths from post-COVID sequelae until June 2022
Ever-infected rate should be studied
Post-COVID sequelae effect Related Variables (Design)
• Ever-infected rate
• Data not available
• Positively correlates with elapsed time (months) → can be expressed in
terms of elapsed months
• Seasonal e
ff
ects → variables with 3-month interval
• Reference date set to be 2021.01.01
Ever-infected Rate Related Variables
TPARD : Time Periods After Reference Date
• Di
ff
erent time periods after reference date. (e.g., 1-3 months after the
reference date of 2021.01.01)
TPARD
Variables
De
fi
nition
TPARD
Variables
De
fi
nition
overall_1_3m After Jan. 1st 2021, 1-3 months … …
overall_4_6m After Jan. 1st 2021, 4-6 months overall_25_27m After Jan. 1st 2021, 25-27 months
overall_7_9m After Jan. 1st 2021, 7-9 months overall_28_30m After Jan. 1st 2021, 28-30 months
overall_10_12m After Jan. 1st 2021, 10-12 months overall_31m+
After Jan. 1st 2021, 31 months and
more
One-hot categorical variables
Ever-infected Rate Related Variables
TPARD : Time Periods After Reference Date
• Di
ff
erent time periods after reference date. (e.g., 1-3 months after the
reference date of 2021.01.01)
TPARD
Variables
De
fi
nition
TPARD
Variables
De
fi
nition
overall_1_3m After Jan. 1st 2021, 1-3 months … …
overall_4_6m After Jan. 1st 2021, 4-6 months overall_25_27m After Jan. 1st 2021, 25-27 months
overall_7_9m After Jan. 1st 2021, 7-9 months overall_28_30m After Jan. 1st 2021, 28-30 months
overall_10_12m After Jan. 1st 2021, 10-12 months overall_31m+
After Jan. 1st 2021, 31 months and
more
One-hot categorical variables
To show :
• Positively correlation with Excess mortality or not
• Correlation is in increasing trend or not
Pull Forward Effect (PFE)
Previous COVID death -> Excess mortality
• The total population vulnerable to diseases is
fi
xed.(eg. elder people)
• These people died in a sudden infectious disease can not die later.
• As a result, positive excess mortality is always followed with negative excess
mortality. (PFE)
• COVID death at one time will result in fewer mortality in the following period.
Ref : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.005
Pull Forward Effect (PFE) — General
Previous COVID death -> suppress Excess mortality
• COVID mortality —> Season and Virus variant dependent
• Eg.
Ref : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.005
Season : Winter
Virus variant : Omicron variant
Large amount of COVID death
in 2021 winter
Global General PFE occurs
Can also be represented
by TPARD
Pull Forward Effect (PFE) — Country Dependent
Previous COVID death -> Excess mortality
• Some COVID waves happen in each country independently.
(policy, counter-measure dependent)
• Country dependent PFE(CD-PFE) need to be measured.
• Designed CD-PFE represented by COVID death of last 3 months.(Reason in
following 2 examples)
Ref : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.005
Pull Forward Effect (United Kingdom)
CD-PFE
E
ff
ect seems to occur after 3 months
Pull Forward Effect (Belgium)
CD-PFE
E
ff
ect seems to occur after 3 months
Analysis Method - Multiple Regression Analysis
Explanatory Variables (to predict excess mortality)
Explanatory
variables
Vaccination Amount of
Post-Vaccination Period
COVID deaths
Different Time Periods
After Reference Date
(VA-PVP)
(TPARD)
Country-Dependent
Pull-forward Effect
(CD-PFE)
• COVID reason
• Vaccine reason
• Post-COVID sequelae
• Global General PFE
• Country-Dependent PFE
Representing
Analysis Method - Multiple Regression Analysis
Predicting excess mortality
Excess mortality
Explanatory
variables
Objective variable
Vaccination Amount of
Post-Vaccination Period
COVID deaths
Different Time Periods
After Reference Date
?
?
?
Correlation/e
ff
ect
(regression coe
ffi
cient)
(VA-PVP)
(TPARD)
Country-Dependent
Pull-forward Effect
(CD-PFE)
?
Data Processing - Selection
• Data set : Ourworldindata (downloaded on 2024.02.18)
• Data of countries excluded
• Insu
ffi
cient COVID death data (less than 10 updates)
• Insu
ffi
cient excess mortality data (less than 5 updates)
• Total vaccination rate lower than median value (focus on high vaccination rate countries)
• Removed southern temperate-zone and equatorial countries (same seasonal e
ff
ect)
• Population smaller than 1 million. (COVID death statistics is not stable, in Appendix)
• Weird data, Uzbekistan. COVID death all 0 after 2022.03.02.(in Appendix)
Data Processing - Selection
• Dropped data before 2020.12
• Bias in excess mortality rate data of each country. Due to disorder,
insu
ffi
cient medical care, etc during early stage of the pandemic.
• Vaccination rolled out in 2020.12
• Dropped data of Israel after Sep. 30, 2023, for excess mortality caused by
Hamas attack
• Data of 29 countries, representing 1.19 billion population, 14.7% of world
population.
Data Processing - Normalization
Why and How
• Data bias in di
ff
erent countries
• COVID death : depends on how frequent PCR test is done
• Excess mortality : depends on level of public health policy, infrastructure and
amount of investment
• Normalization (within one country)
• Max(COVID death) <—> Max(Excess mortality)
• Min(COVID death) <—> Min(Excess mortality)
• Mapped both COVID death and Excess mortality to [0,1]
Model Evaluation
Statistically
signi
fi
cant
Baseline
With
Proposed
Variables
Coefficients of Model 8
COVID death + VA-PVP + TPARD + CD-PFE
• Generally p=0, statistically
signi
fi
cant
• CD-PFE by COVID death
decreases Excess mortality
Coefficients for VA-PVP (Vaccine related)
Correlation with Excess mortality
•All positive correlation
•E
ff
ect in increasing trend
Increasing
TPARD — Post-COVID sequelae effect related
Is this a confounding factor to high excess ?
•Negative correlation
•E
ff
ect keep decreasing
Decreasing
The “High Excess mortality” is not
related to Post-COVID sequelae e
ff
ect
TPARD — Post-COVID sequelae effect related
Why sudden drop?
Sudden drop in winter:
• Because when COVID took
lives, non-COVID cause
took less.
• Reduced excess mortality
in the following period.
TPARD — General PFE
Decreasing
Decreasing trend : Global general PFE through time.
Vulnerable population being reduced by COVID and vaccine.
VA-PVPs — Why low values?
Increasing
Relatively low values:
• Period overlap with winter
for di
ff
erent countries
• Because COVID took lives,
non-COVID cause took less
Reason of low coef of VA-PVPs
Coefs of all_dose_7_9m, all_dose_19_21m
Centered at 2022.02
Largely overlaps with 2021_winter
Reason of low coef of VA-PVPs
Coefs of all_dose_7_9m, all_dose_19_21m
Centered at 2023.02
Largely overlaps with 2022_winter
Reason of low coef of VA-PVPs
Eg. all_dose_7_9m
• Peak of all_dose_7_9m at Omicron wave.
• Lives taken by Omicron
(2021_winter, 2022.01~03)
Vaccination
amount
Discussion(1)
• “Globally non-COVID cause increasing excess mortality along time” was
observed.
• Current excess mortality is “Pandemic level”.
• Vaccination positively correlated with excess mortality, and in an “increasing
trend”.
• Assumed post-COVID sequelae e
ff
ect correlated negatively with excess
mortality and in a “decreasing trend”. So not a confounding factor.
• Non other “Global”, “Excess mortality increasing”, “Pandemic level causing”
factors could be considered. Only vaccination is possible.
What are proved?
Discussion(2)
How to consider the e
ff
ect of vaccination by regression coefs ?
Seems 0.254 < 0.747.
But do notice
Value of all_dose_25m+ is the sum of
all doses rate, ranging (0%,309%).
While value of COVID death ranging (0,1)
So the e
ff
ects are of the SAME LEVEL.
Discussion(3)
Estimation of e
ff
ect on excess mortality during 2020.12 ~ 2023.12
• Vaccine has been causing 1.7 times excess mortality that of COVID, is
currently causing 3.4 times in these countries. (Normalized excess used)
1.7 times
3.4 times
Discussion(4)
Underestimation of current excess mortality
• The real mortality baseline should
be better represents by Non-
COVID, Non-vaccine cause
mortality
• Coefs of TPARDs better represent
the trend of real mortality baseline
• Current mortality should be a large
de
fi
cit, so currently even 0% excess
mortality should be actually serious
excess mortality.
Conclusion
• Vaccination has causal relation with excess mortality.
• Vaccination has taken lives even higher than Pandemic level.
• It should be terminated immediately and investigations should be launched.
Source code and data
https://github.com/SakuraDataAnalyst/00vaccine-data-analysis.git
Appendix
Vaccine efficacy turns negative
• [1] Nordström P, Ballin M, Nordström A. Risk of infection, hospitalisation, and death up to 9 months after a second dose of
COVID-19 vaccine: a retrospective, total population cohort study in Sweden. Lancet. 2022 Feb 26;399(10327):814-823. doi:
10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00089-7. Epub 2022 Feb 4. PMID: 35131043; PMCID: PMC8816388.
[2] Fleming-Dutra KE, Britton A, Shang N, et al. Association of Prior BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination With Symptomatic
SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children and Adolescents During Omicron Predominance. JAMA. 2022;327(22):2210–2219.
doi:10.1001/jama.2022.7493
• [3] Chemaitelly, H., Ayoub, H.H., AlMukdad, S. et al. Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron
BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar. Nat Commun 13, 3082 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30895-3
• [4] Tseng, H.F., Ackerson, B.K., Bruxvoort, K.J. et al. E
ff
ectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 omicron
subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5. Nat Commun 14, 189 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/
s41467-023-35815-7
• [5] Nabin K Shrestha and others, E
ff
ectiveness of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Bivalent Vaccine, Open Forum Infectious
Diseases, Volume 10, Issue 6, June 2023, ofad209, https://doi.org/10.1093/o
fi
d/ofad209
• [6] Lin DY, Gu Y, Xu Y, Zeng D, Wheeler B, Young H, Sunny SK, Moore Z. E
ff
ects of Vaccination and Previous Infection on
Omicron Infections in Children. N Engl J Med. 2022 Sep 22;387(12):1141-1143. doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2209371. Epub 2022
Sep 7. PMID: 36069811; PMCID: PMC9511630.
Post-COVID sequelae effect Related Variables (Design)
• Why set reference date of TPARD on 2021.01.01?
• Want also absorb e
ff
ects on excess mortality after large amount of COVID
deaths.(PFE)
• COVID deaths 2-8 weeks after infection → Reference date set to 2021.01.01 (1 month after
2020.12 winter)
Deleted Countries (Bad data)
Uzbekistan
Deleted Countries (Too small population)
Luxembourg, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Bermuda
• Population 640,064 (2021)
COVID death < 1.0

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Big Data Analysis Suggests COVID Vaccination Increases Excess Mortality Of Highly vaccinated North Temperate Zone and North Frigid Zone Countries

  • 1. Sakura Ken Big Data Analysis Suggests COVID Vaccination Increases Excess Mortality Of North Temperate Zone Countries
  • 2. Outline • Concerns on COVID Vaccines • Abnormal Excess Mortality Around The World • Vaccine Side E ff ects, Post-COVID Sequelae A ff ecting Excess Mortality? — A Big Data Analysis
  • 3. Concerns on COVID vaccines • Insu ffi cient development time, long-term side e ff ects unknown. • Major component is spike protein, proven cytotoxicity alone [1], able to reproduce important aspects of pathogenesis after SARS-CoV-2 infection [2]. • Causes cardiovascular disease (myocarditis risk equivalent to infection among young people [3]) • Long-term immunization e ff ect turns negative, the more vaccinated, the more likely to be infected[4]. (More in Appendix) [1] https://www.salk.edu/news-release/the-novel-coronavirus-spike-protein-plays-additional-key-role-in-illness/ [2] Old fi eld PR et al. How Does Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 A ff ect the Brain and Its Implications for the Vaccines Currently in Use. Vaccines. 2022; 10(1):1. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/vaccines10010001 [3] Patone M et al. Risks of myocarditis, pericarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias associated with COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nat Med. 2022 Feb;28(2):410-422. doi: 10.1038/ s41591-021-01630-0. Epub 2021 Dec 14. PMID: 34907393; PMCID: PMC8863574. [4] Nabin K Shrestha and others, E ff ectiveness of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Bivalent Vaccine, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Volume 10, Issue 6, June 2023, ofad209, https://doi.org/10.1093/ o fi d/ofad209
  • 4. Concerns on COVID vaccines • The vaccinated more susceptible to infection in long-term → increased COVID mortality • Vaccine long-term side e ff ects → increased side e ff ect mortality —> Increase Long-term excess mortality ?
  • 5. Outline • Concerns on COVID Vaccines • Abnormal Excess Mortality Around The World • Vaccine Side E ff ects, Post-COVID Sequelae A ff ecting Excess Mortality? — A Big Data Analysis
  • 6. Excess Mortality Around the World - UK 10%~20% excess mortality https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations COVID-death decreases, excess mortality stays high.
  • 7. Excess Mortality Around the World - UK (2021,2022) Average : ~10% 10%~20% excess mortality Pandemic level or even more 2021 2022
  • 8. Excess Mortality Around the World - Other Countries (1) Gap between Excess mortality and COVID death in increasing trend ??
  • 9. Excess Mortality Around the World - Other Countries (2) Gap between Excess mortality and COVID death in increasing trend ??
  • 10. Outline • Concerns on COVID Vaccines • Abnormal Excess Mortality Around The World • Vaccine Side E ff ects or Post-COVID Sequelae A ff ecting Excess Mortality? — A Big Data Analysis • COVID deaths • Vaccine-related Variables • Lethal post-COVID sequelae e ff ect • Pull forward e ff ects (PFE)
  • 11. Variables Related To Excess Mortality • COVID deaths (7-day average) • Vaccine-related variables (which can express side e ff ects time elapsed since vaccination) • Variables related to “lethal post-COVID sequelae e ff ect” (ever-infected rate or N-antibody possession rate) • Pull forward e ff ect : excess death being caused by COVID will result in de fi cit mortality in the future
  • 12. Vaccine-related Variables VA-PVP : Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period • Assume all doses to have the same type(brand). And side e ff ect changes similarly along time periods after vaccination. • Meaning of variable: how many vaccination amount is in a certain post- vaccination period. VA-PVP Variables De fi nition alldose_1_3m x% vaccination at 1-3 months period alldose_4_6m x% vaccination at 4-6 months period … … alldose_22_24m x% vaccination at 22-24 months period alldose_25m+ x% vaccination at 25 months or longer period
  • 13. Vaccine-related Variables VA-PVP : Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period • Assume all doses to have the same type(brand). And side e ff ect changes similarly along time periods after vaccination. • Meaning of variable: how many vaccination amount is in a certain post- vaccination period. VA-PVP Variables De fi nition alldose_1_3m x% vaccination at 1-3 months period alldose_4_6m x% vaccination at 4-6 months period … … alldose_22_24m x% vaccination at 22-24 months period alldose_25m+ x% vaccination at 25 months or longer period To show : • Positively correlation with Excess mortality or not • Correlation is in increasing trend or not
  • 14. VA-PVP Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period • Eg1. 2021.01.01, vaccination started, and 1% vaccinated on 2021.01.01 • 2021.01.01: alldose_1_3m = 1% • 2021.04.01: alldose_4_6m = 1% • Eg2. Date xxxx.xx.xx, total vaccination rate = 60% Date alldose_1_3m alldose_4_6m alldose_7_9m alldose_10_12m alldose_13m+ xxxx.xx.xx 2% 13% 25% 15% 5%
  • 15. Post-COVID sequelae effect Related Variables • High ever-infected rate → more lethal post-COVID sequelae → increase excess mortality [1] https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/121968 3544 deaths from post-COVID sequelae until June 2022 Ever-infected rate should be studied
  • 16. Post-COVID sequelae effect Related Variables (Design) • Ever-infected rate • Data not available • Positively correlates with elapsed time (months) → can be expressed in terms of elapsed months • Seasonal e ff ects → variables with 3-month interval • Reference date set to be 2021.01.01
  • 17. Ever-infected Rate Related Variables TPARD : Time Periods After Reference Date • Di ff erent time periods after reference date. (e.g., 1-3 months after the reference date of 2021.01.01) TPARD Variables De fi nition TPARD Variables De fi nition overall_1_3m After Jan. 1st 2021, 1-3 months … … overall_4_6m After Jan. 1st 2021, 4-6 months overall_25_27m After Jan. 1st 2021, 25-27 months overall_7_9m After Jan. 1st 2021, 7-9 months overall_28_30m After Jan. 1st 2021, 28-30 months overall_10_12m After Jan. 1st 2021, 10-12 months overall_31m+ After Jan. 1st 2021, 31 months and more One-hot categorical variables
  • 18. Ever-infected Rate Related Variables TPARD : Time Periods After Reference Date • Di ff erent time periods after reference date. (e.g., 1-3 months after the reference date of 2021.01.01) TPARD Variables De fi nition TPARD Variables De fi nition overall_1_3m After Jan. 1st 2021, 1-3 months … … overall_4_6m After Jan. 1st 2021, 4-6 months overall_25_27m After Jan. 1st 2021, 25-27 months overall_7_9m After Jan. 1st 2021, 7-9 months overall_28_30m After Jan. 1st 2021, 28-30 months overall_10_12m After Jan. 1st 2021, 10-12 months overall_31m+ After Jan. 1st 2021, 31 months and more One-hot categorical variables To show : • Positively correlation with Excess mortality or not • Correlation is in increasing trend or not
  • 19. Pull Forward Effect (PFE) Previous COVID death -> Excess mortality • The total population vulnerable to diseases is fi xed.(eg. elder people) • These people died in a sudden infectious disease can not die later. • As a result, positive excess mortality is always followed with negative excess mortality. (PFE) • COVID death at one time will result in fewer mortality in the following period. Ref : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.005
  • 20. Pull Forward Effect (PFE) — General Previous COVID death -> suppress Excess mortality • COVID mortality —> Season and Virus variant dependent • Eg. Ref : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.005 Season : Winter Virus variant : Omicron variant Large amount of COVID death in 2021 winter Global General PFE occurs Can also be represented by TPARD
  • 21. Pull Forward Effect (PFE) — Country Dependent Previous COVID death -> Excess mortality • Some COVID waves happen in each country independently. (policy, counter-measure dependent) • Country dependent PFE(CD-PFE) need to be measured. • Designed CD-PFE represented by COVID death of last 3 months.(Reason in following 2 examples) Ref : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.005
  • 22. Pull Forward Effect (United Kingdom) CD-PFE E ff ect seems to occur after 3 months
  • 23. Pull Forward Effect (Belgium) CD-PFE E ff ect seems to occur after 3 months
  • 24. Analysis Method - Multiple Regression Analysis Explanatory Variables (to predict excess mortality) Explanatory variables Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period COVID deaths Different Time Periods After Reference Date (VA-PVP) (TPARD) Country-Dependent Pull-forward Effect (CD-PFE) • COVID reason • Vaccine reason • Post-COVID sequelae • Global General PFE • Country-Dependent PFE Representing
  • 25. Analysis Method - Multiple Regression Analysis Predicting excess mortality Excess mortality Explanatory variables Objective variable Vaccination Amount of Post-Vaccination Period COVID deaths Different Time Periods After Reference Date ? ? ? Correlation/e ff ect (regression coe ffi cient) (VA-PVP) (TPARD) Country-Dependent Pull-forward Effect (CD-PFE) ?
  • 26. Data Processing - Selection • Data set : Ourworldindata (downloaded on 2024.02.18) • Data of countries excluded • Insu ffi cient COVID death data (less than 10 updates) • Insu ffi cient excess mortality data (less than 5 updates) • Total vaccination rate lower than median value (focus on high vaccination rate countries) • Removed southern temperate-zone and equatorial countries (same seasonal e ff ect) • Population smaller than 1 million. (COVID death statistics is not stable, in Appendix) • Weird data, Uzbekistan. COVID death all 0 after 2022.03.02.(in Appendix)
  • 27. Data Processing - Selection • Dropped data before 2020.12 • Bias in excess mortality rate data of each country. Due to disorder, insu ffi cient medical care, etc during early stage of the pandemic. • Vaccination rolled out in 2020.12 • Dropped data of Israel after Sep. 30, 2023, for excess mortality caused by Hamas attack • Data of 29 countries, representing 1.19 billion population, 14.7% of world population.
  • 28. Data Processing - Normalization Why and How • Data bias in di ff erent countries • COVID death : depends on how frequent PCR test is done • Excess mortality : depends on level of public health policy, infrastructure and amount of investment • Normalization (within one country) • Max(COVID death) <—> Max(Excess mortality) • Min(COVID death) <—> Min(Excess mortality) • Mapped both COVID death and Excess mortality to [0,1]
  • 30. Coefficients of Model 8 COVID death + VA-PVP + TPARD + CD-PFE • Generally p=0, statistically signi fi cant • CD-PFE by COVID death decreases Excess mortality
  • 31. Coefficients for VA-PVP (Vaccine related) Correlation with Excess mortality •All positive correlation •E ff ect in increasing trend Increasing
  • 32. TPARD — Post-COVID sequelae effect related Is this a confounding factor to high excess ? •Negative correlation •E ff ect keep decreasing Decreasing The “High Excess mortality” is not related to Post-COVID sequelae e ff ect
  • 33. TPARD — Post-COVID sequelae effect related Why sudden drop? Sudden drop in winter: • Because when COVID took lives, non-COVID cause took less. • Reduced excess mortality in the following period.
  • 34. TPARD — General PFE Decreasing Decreasing trend : Global general PFE through time. Vulnerable population being reduced by COVID and vaccine.
  • 35. VA-PVPs — Why low values? Increasing Relatively low values: • Period overlap with winter for di ff erent countries • Because COVID took lives, non-COVID cause took less
  • 36. Reason of low coef of VA-PVPs Coefs of all_dose_7_9m, all_dose_19_21m Centered at 2022.02 Largely overlaps with 2021_winter
  • 37. Reason of low coef of VA-PVPs Coefs of all_dose_7_9m, all_dose_19_21m Centered at 2023.02 Largely overlaps with 2022_winter
  • 38. Reason of low coef of VA-PVPs Eg. all_dose_7_9m • Peak of all_dose_7_9m at Omicron wave. • Lives taken by Omicron (2021_winter, 2022.01~03) Vaccination amount
  • 39. Discussion(1) • “Globally non-COVID cause increasing excess mortality along time” was observed. • Current excess mortality is “Pandemic level”. • Vaccination positively correlated with excess mortality, and in an “increasing trend”. • Assumed post-COVID sequelae e ff ect correlated negatively with excess mortality and in a “decreasing trend”. So not a confounding factor. • Non other “Global”, “Excess mortality increasing”, “Pandemic level causing” factors could be considered. Only vaccination is possible. What are proved?
  • 40. Discussion(2) How to consider the e ff ect of vaccination by regression coefs ? Seems 0.254 < 0.747. But do notice Value of all_dose_25m+ is the sum of all doses rate, ranging (0%,309%). While value of COVID death ranging (0,1) So the e ff ects are of the SAME LEVEL.
  • 41. Discussion(3) Estimation of e ff ect on excess mortality during 2020.12 ~ 2023.12 • Vaccine has been causing 1.7 times excess mortality that of COVID, is currently causing 3.4 times in these countries. (Normalized excess used) 1.7 times 3.4 times
  • 42. Discussion(4) Underestimation of current excess mortality • The real mortality baseline should be better represents by Non- COVID, Non-vaccine cause mortality • Coefs of TPARDs better represent the trend of real mortality baseline • Current mortality should be a large de fi cit, so currently even 0% excess mortality should be actually serious excess mortality.
  • 43. Conclusion • Vaccination has causal relation with excess mortality. • Vaccination has taken lives even higher than Pandemic level. • It should be terminated immediately and investigations should be launched.
  • 44. Source code and data https://github.com/SakuraDataAnalyst/00vaccine-data-analysis.git
  • 46. Vaccine efficacy turns negative • [1] Nordström P, Ballin M, Nordström A. Risk of infection, hospitalisation, and death up to 9 months after a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine: a retrospective, total population cohort study in Sweden. Lancet. 2022 Feb 26;399(10327):814-823. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00089-7. Epub 2022 Feb 4. PMID: 35131043; PMCID: PMC8816388. [2] Fleming-Dutra KE, Britton A, Shang N, et al. Association of Prior BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination With Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children and Adolescents During Omicron Predominance. JAMA. 2022;327(22):2210–2219. doi:10.1001/jama.2022.7493 • [3] Chemaitelly, H., Ayoub, H.H., AlMukdad, S. et al. Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar. Nat Commun 13, 3082 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30895-3 • [4] Tseng, H.F., Ackerson, B.K., Bruxvoort, K.J. et al. E ff ectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5. Nat Commun 14, 189 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41467-023-35815-7 • [5] Nabin K Shrestha and others, E ff ectiveness of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Bivalent Vaccine, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Volume 10, Issue 6, June 2023, ofad209, https://doi.org/10.1093/o fi d/ofad209 • [6] Lin DY, Gu Y, Xu Y, Zeng D, Wheeler B, Young H, Sunny SK, Moore Z. E ff ects of Vaccination and Previous Infection on Omicron Infections in Children. N Engl J Med. 2022 Sep 22;387(12):1141-1143. doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2209371. Epub 2022 Sep 7. PMID: 36069811; PMCID: PMC9511630.
  • 47. Post-COVID sequelae effect Related Variables (Design) • Why set reference date of TPARD on 2021.01.01? • Want also absorb e ff ects on excess mortality after large amount of COVID deaths.(PFE) • COVID deaths 2-8 weeks after infection → Reference date set to 2021.01.01 (1 month after 2020.12 winter)
  • 48. Deleted Countries (Bad data) Uzbekistan
  • 49. Deleted Countries (Too small population) Luxembourg, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Bermuda • Population 640,064 (2021) COVID death < 1.0