This document summarizes a presentation given at the Royal Netherlands Embassy in Washington DC on November 30, 2010 about transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery and congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies. The presentation focused on three main points: that mercantilist approaches to trade promotion can be distracting, that trade promotion strategies can work to increase exports and imports, and that upholding the multilateral trading system through congruent strategies is especially important. Data was presented showing the impact of economic diplomacy on trade and exports. Completing the Doha round of trade negotiations was noted as something missing from fully realizing gains from trade. Shifting shares of world trade over time towards emerging economies like China was also discussed

1. Transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery
In search of congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies
Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington DC, Nov. 30,2010
Session III Export Promotion
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University and Research School for
Resource Studies for Development (CERES), Utrecht, the Netherlands
Bergeijk@iss.nl

2. Three points to make
• The Mercantilist flavor distracts
• Trade promotion works
• Congruence is especially strong in strategies to
uphold the multilateral trading system

3. Imports are important
• Trade diversion versus trade creation (Missing
from Table 9).
• Specialization and competition effect

4. Trade promotion works
Dataset by economic Impact of economic
component diplomacy
N=870
Trade Export Import
Significant & Significant &
negative -2<t<2 positive
11% 7%
Exports only 34 331 343
5% 47% 48%
82% Imports or trade 39 123
0% 24% 76%
12/3/2010 Bergeijk 4

5. Something is missing
Not completing the Doha round

6. Multilateral trade negotiations
(duration and number of countries)
120
Ddoha, predicted
100
Uruguay
80
Doha, present
months)
Duration (months
Tokyo
60
40
Kennedy
20 Dillon
Geneva
Annecy Torquay
Geneva II
0
0 30 60 90 120 150
Number of
Source: Van Marrewijk 2006
countries

7. Shifting shares in world
trade
1995 Forecast 2025
Per cent Per cent
Europe 40 Europe 23
US 16 China 17
Japan 7 US 11
China 2 Japan 4
Rest of Asia 14 Rest of Asia 15
Rest of world 21 Rest of world 30
Herfindahl = 1909 63 Herfindahl = 955 38
C3 = 63 C3 = 51
12/3/2010 Bergeijk 7

8. Transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery
In search of congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies
Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington DC, Nov. 30,2010
Session III Export Promotion
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University and Research School for
Resource Studies for Development (CERES), Utrecht, the Netherlands
Bergeijk@iss.nl