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The Inconvenient Truths of
Effectiveness
Exploiting the potential of the
evolving media landscape
Previous research and this
http://www.ipa.co.uk/Document/Media-in-Focus-PDF#
• How is the changing
media landscape
altering the rules of
effectiveness?
• 500 digital era cases,
120 in 2014/16
3 important truths
1. Effectiveness requires media and strategies that
work over the short and long-terms:
– The 60:40 effectiveness rule
2. Emotional campaigns and media drive long-term
effectiveness
3. Mass marketing still rules effectiveness:
scalability is essential for growth
1. Short and long-term
effectiveness are different
You need strategies for both
Salesupliftoverbase
Time
Source: Binet & Field 2013
The deception of short-termism
Sales activation
Short term sales uplifts
Brand building
Long term sales growth
Short term effects dominate ~6 months
Short-termism has been rising
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
%casesshort-term
10 years ending
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
Activation effects have been achieved
at the expense of brand
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
%casesreportingverylarge
effects
10 years ending
Activation
effects
Brand
awareness
growth
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
Effectiveness has fallen
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Numberofverylargebusiness
effects
10 years ending
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
Short-term campaign’s sales effects
Specsavers: a long-term TV campaign
Source: Specsavers IPA case study 2014
Specsavers: a long-term TV campaign
Specsavers: a long-term TV campaign
Balancing brand and activation for
best success
62
38
Very large share growth cases
Channel share for
brand-building
objectives
Channel share for
activation
objectives
64
36
Most efficient cases
58
42
Strongest brand-building cases
64
36
Very large profit growth cases
Source: IPA Databank, 2016 cases
61%
39%
Advertising spend split, 2000
Share of display
Share of direct
response
Source: Enders Analysis estimates based on AA/WARC
51%49%
Advertising spend split, 2016
Activation levels have exceeded optimum
Advertising effectiveness-marketing and long-term
business benefits [ May 2017]
Brand-building is just as important for
online brands
60 57
40 43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Offline Online
Optimumbudgetsplit%
Brand Activation
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
Tech firms are turning to traditional media
UK adspend – 12 month rolling (Nielsen)
The power of TV in an online
category: Directline
Directline
Directline growth
Source: Directline IPA case study 2016
2. Emotional campaigns and media
drive long-term growth
Emotional campaigns build stronger brands
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Rational Emotional
Numberofbrandeffects
Communications model
Source: IPA Databank
Emotions and Fame remain most efficient
0.2
1.0
1.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Rational Emotional Fame
SOVefficiency
Source: IPA Databank, 2004-16 cases
Magazines
DRTV
Radio
Nat newspapers
Regional
newspapers
TV
Inserts
OOH
Sponsorship
Cinema
PRDM
SMS
Promos
Social
media
Online video
Online non-video
Email
Paid search
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3
%reportingverylargeactivationeffects
Average number of very large brand effects reported
Emotive audio-visual media build brands
Source: IPA Databank 2008 - 2016
Rational information
media
Emotive audio-visual
media
Aldi UK – emotional priming
Aldi UK – emotional priming
Emotional priming – Aldi UK
Source: Aldi IPA case study 2012
Aldi UK share growth
Source: Aldi IPA case study 2012
3. Mass marketing and media are
essential to long-term growth
Targeting vs. Reach
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Verylargeactivationeffects
Targeting
Tight targeting drives short-term
activation
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
Annualmkt.sharegrowth
Targeting
Broad reach drives long-term
growth
Source: IPA Databank, 2008-16 cases
Targeting vs. Reach
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Did use Did not use
Verylargeactivationeffects
Use of Big Data for real-time
marketing
Real-time tight targeting drives
short-term activation
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
Did use Did not use
Annualmarketsharegrowth
Use of Big Data for real-time
marketing
Broad early targeting drives long-
term growth
Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
“We targeted too much, and we
went too narrow…The bigger your
brand, the more you need broad
reach and less targeted media.”
Marc Pritchard, CMO P&G
Wall Street Journal, Aug. 17, 2016
Messaging
Shopping/
transacting
Online video
Broadcast TV
Other online
Newsbrands
Search
Reaching UK adults in 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
WeeklyReach(%Adults)
Average Hours Per Day (Across All Adults)
OOH
Radio
Email
Social networking
Texting
Internet for work
Cinema
Subscriber VoD
Reaching UK adults in 2017
Source: IPA Touchpoints
How people spend their time online
Social/messaging 39%
Email 33%
Search 7%
Video 4%
Shopping/transacting
3%
Other 14%
Source: IPA Touchpoints, Wave 6 (April 2016)
Mark Ritson
“It’s called ‘social media’ for a reason: most
Australians use it to connect with people not
companies.”
Mark Ritson, Financial Review 10/4/13
TV is best for market share growth
1.1%
1.8%
2.1%
2.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
No TV TV sponsorship DRTV Brand TV
Avg.marketsharepoints
gainedperannum
Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
And digital makes mass media more effective
27%
22%
13% 14%
40%
27%
22%
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
TV Press Radio Outdoor
%increaseinavg.no.VL
businesseffectsfromadding
Web 1.0 (1998 - 2006) Web 2.0 (2008* - 2016)
Source: IPA Databank
*Outdoor = 2012 - 2016
Online video makes TV more effective
2.6%
3.1%
1.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
TV only Both Online video only
Avg.marketshare
gainperannum
Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
TV consistently outperforms online video
across 2017 research studies
2.4 x
2.6 x
2.4 x
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Share growth - IPA Short-term sales - Karen
Nelson-Field
Long-term ROI -
Ebiquity/Gain Theory
TVperformancevs.Onlinevideo
Sources: IPA Databank ‘Media in Focus’ , Professor Karen Nelson-Field PhD ‘Media Attributes that (really) Matter’ ,
Ebiquity ROI campaign database & Gain Theory ‘Profit Ability: the business case for advertising’
SOV is getting more important
6%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1998-2006 2008-2016
%growthexplainedbyshareof
voicealone
Source: IPA Databank
Conclusions
• Short-termism damages effectiveness: we need to ensure balance
between long & short term objectives. Remember the 60:40 rule.
• TV reigns supreme for long-term effectiveness
• The most powerful long-term media are able to stir emotions and
build fame for brands.
• Campaign reach and scalability are vital to long-term brand success.
• Narrow-targeting is seductive in the short term but underperforms
in the long term.
• Share of voice is getting more important not less.
Thank you
The Inconvenient Truths of
Effectiveness

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BAM Congress 2017: Peter Field - Exploiting the full effectiveness potential of the evolving media landscape

  • 1. The Inconvenient Truths of Effectiveness Exploiting the potential of the evolving media landscape
  • 2. Previous research and this http://www.ipa.co.uk/Document/Media-in-Focus-PDF# • How is the changing media landscape altering the rules of effectiveness? • 500 digital era cases, 120 in 2014/16
  • 3. 3 important truths 1. Effectiveness requires media and strategies that work over the short and long-terms: – The 60:40 effectiveness rule 2. Emotional campaigns and media drive long-term effectiveness 3. Mass marketing still rules effectiveness: scalability is essential for growth
  • 4. 1. Short and long-term effectiveness are different You need strategies for both
  • 5. Salesupliftoverbase Time Source: Binet & Field 2013 The deception of short-termism Sales activation Short term sales uplifts Brand building Long term sales growth Short term effects dominate ~6 months
  • 6. Short-termism has been rising 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 %casesshort-term 10 years ending Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
  • 7. Activation effects have been achieved at the expense of brand 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 %casesreportingverylarge effects 10 years ending Activation effects Brand awareness growth Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
  • 8. Effectiveness has fallen 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Numberofverylargebusiness effects 10 years ending Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
  • 10. Specsavers: a long-term TV campaign Source: Specsavers IPA case study 2014
  • 11. Specsavers: a long-term TV campaign
  • 12. Specsavers: a long-term TV campaign
  • 13. Balancing brand and activation for best success 62 38 Very large share growth cases Channel share for brand-building objectives Channel share for activation objectives 64 36 Most efficient cases 58 42 Strongest brand-building cases 64 36 Very large profit growth cases Source: IPA Databank, 2016 cases
  • 14. 61% 39% Advertising spend split, 2000 Share of display Share of direct response Source: Enders Analysis estimates based on AA/WARC 51%49% Advertising spend split, 2016 Activation levels have exceeded optimum Advertising effectiveness-marketing and long-term business benefits [ May 2017]
  • 15. Brand-building is just as important for online brands 60 57 40 43 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Offline Online Optimumbudgetsplit% Brand Activation Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
  • 16. Tech firms are turning to traditional media UK adspend – 12 month rolling (Nielsen)
  • 17. The power of TV in an online category: Directline
  • 20. 2. Emotional campaigns and media drive long-term growth
  • 21. Emotional campaigns build stronger brands 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Rational Emotional Numberofbrandeffects Communications model Source: IPA Databank
  • 22. Emotions and Fame remain most efficient 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Rational Emotional Fame SOVefficiency Source: IPA Databank, 2004-16 cases
  • 23. Magazines DRTV Radio Nat newspapers Regional newspapers TV Inserts OOH Sponsorship Cinema PRDM SMS Promos Social media Online video Online non-video Email Paid search 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 %reportingverylargeactivationeffects Average number of very large brand effects reported Emotive audio-visual media build brands Source: IPA Databank 2008 - 2016 Rational information media Emotive audio-visual media
  • 24. Aldi UK – emotional priming
  • 25. Aldi UK – emotional priming
  • 26. Emotional priming – Aldi UK Source: Aldi IPA case study 2012
  • 27. Aldi UK share growth Source: Aldi IPA case study 2012
  • 28. 3. Mass marketing and media are essential to long-term growth
  • 29. Targeting vs. Reach 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Verylargeactivationeffects Targeting Tight targeting drives short-term activation 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Annualmkt.sharegrowth Targeting Broad reach drives long-term growth Source: IPA Databank, 2008-16 cases
  • 30. Targeting vs. Reach 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Did use Did not use Verylargeactivationeffects Use of Big Data for real-time marketing Real-time tight targeting drives short-term activation 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% Did use Did not use Annualmarketsharegrowth Use of Big Data for real-time marketing Broad early targeting drives long- term growth Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
  • 31. “We targeted too much, and we went too narrow…The bigger your brand, the more you need broad reach and less targeted media.” Marc Pritchard, CMO P&G Wall Street Journal, Aug. 17, 2016
  • 32. Messaging Shopping/ transacting Online video Broadcast TV Other online Newsbrands Search Reaching UK adults in 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 WeeklyReach(%Adults) Average Hours Per Day (Across All Adults) OOH Radio Email Social networking Texting Internet for work Cinema Subscriber VoD Reaching UK adults in 2017 Source: IPA Touchpoints
  • 33. How people spend their time online Social/messaging 39% Email 33% Search 7% Video 4% Shopping/transacting 3% Other 14% Source: IPA Touchpoints, Wave 6 (April 2016)
  • 34. Mark Ritson “It’s called ‘social media’ for a reason: most Australians use it to connect with people not companies.” Mark Ritson, Financial Review 10/4/13
  • 35. TV is best for market share growth 1.1% 1.8% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% No TV TV sponsorship DRTV Brand TV Avg.marketsharepoints gainedperannum Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
  • 36. And digital makes mass media more effective 27% 22% 13% 14% 40% 27% 22% 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% TV Press Radio Outdoor %increaseinavg.no.VL businesseffectsfromadding Web 1.0 (1998 - 2006) Web 2.0 (2008* - 2016) Source: IPA Databank *Outdoor = 2012 - 2016
  • 37. Online video makes TV more effective 2.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% TV only Both Online video only Avg.marketshare gainperannum Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
  • 38. TV consistently outperforms online video across 2017 research studies 2.4 x 2.6 x 2.4 x 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Share growth - IPA Short-term sales - Karen Nelson-Field Long-term ROI - Ebiquity/Gain Theory TVperformancevs.Onlinevideo Sources: IPA Databank ‘Media in Focus’ , Professor Karen Nelson-Field PhD ‘Media Attributes that (really) Matter’ , Ebiquity ROI campaign database & Gain Theory ‘Profit Ability: the business case for advertising’
  • 39. SOV is getting more important 6% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1998-2006 2008-2016 %growthexplainedbyshareof voicealone Source: IPA Databank
  • 40. Conclusions • Short-termism damages effectiveness: we need to ensure balance between long & short term objectives. Remember the 60:40 rule. • TV reigns supreme for long-term effectiveness • The most powerful long-term media are able to stir emotions and build fame for brands. • Campaign reach and scalability are vital to long-term brand success. • Narrow-targeting is seductive in the short term but underperforms in the long term. • Share of voice is getting more important not less. Thank you
  • 41. The Inconvenient Truths of Effectiveness