The document summarizes discussions from a crime and justice statistics forum held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on February 23, 2022. It includes an agenda with topics on measuring crime during the pandemic, workshops on crime survey data collection and the future of crime measurement. Several speakers presented on challenges of measuring crime during COVID-19 restrictions, including reduced in-person Crime Survey for England and Wales sample sizes, and impacts on trends in different types of crime. Administrative data from police and justice systems were also discussed as alternative data sources to understand crime during the pandemic.

1. Public Policy Analysis
Crime and Justice Statistics Forum
Centre for Crime and Justice
slido #15944
@ONSfocus #ONSCrimeJustice
23 February 2022

2. Crime and Justice Statistics Forum
Welcome
Liz McKeown
Director of Public Policy Analysis
Office for National Statistics
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@ONSfocus #ONSCrimeJustice
Sir Ian Diamond
National Statistician
Office for National Statistics

3. Agenda
10:00 – 10:15 Welcome and introduction – Liz McKeown, Director of Public Policy Analysis and Sir Ian Diamond,
National Statistician, ONS
10:15 – 12:00 Panel discussion: Measuring crime and justice during the pandemic
12:00 – 13:00 Break
13:00 – 14:00 Workshops
• Workshop 1A – Multimodal approaches to collecting crime survey data
• Workshop 1B – Incorporating administrative data in crime statistics
14:00 – 14:15 Break
14:15 – 15:15 Workshops
• Workshop 2A – Using natural language processing tools in crime statistics
• Workshop 2B – The future of crime measurement
15:15 – 15:30 Break
15:30 – 16:00 Interactive session and closing remarks – John Marais, Deputy Director of Crime, Income &
Wealth Division, ONS
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@ONSfocus #ONSCrimeJustice

4. Panel Discussion:
Measuring crime and justice
during the pandemic
Nick Stripe
Centre for Crime and Justice
Office for National Statistics
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@ONSfocus #ONSCrimeJustice

5. Measuring crime during
the pandemic
Joseph Traynor
Head of Crime survey Development
Centre for Crime and justice
Office for National Statistics
23 February 2022

6. 2
CSEW design during Covid pandemic
Run for the ONS under contract by Kantar.
Most straightforward and likely to succeed –
easily made operational. Issue with length and
gaining a sample of telephone numbers.
Since the start of the pandemic, the crime
survey has been a telephone-only operation
using previous respondents.
However sample was limited in size (around
40,000 telephone numbers).
Sample was of limited size so to increase the
longevity of the sample (rather than the
precision of its estimates) we planned on
reinterviewing respondents at three monthly
intervals for three waves over 9 months.
Mode - telephone Survey Instrument
Due to length of the original instrument we had
had to reduce the length of the survey
considerably. Main aim was to provide key
estimates of crime during the pandemic and the
previous 12 months. Some expansion of the
survey’s content during the pandemic in relation
covid related topics such as perceptions of the
police and anti-social behaviour.
We had to remove sensitive self completion
modules due to safeguarding and ethical
concerns. Concerns were raised around not
measuring domestic violence and violence
against women and girls during the pandemic.
The sample has now been pushed to its
absolute limit, with seven waves planned to
March 2022.
Sample – reuse previous survey
respondents
Panel
Return to face-to-face interviewing
Limitations
From October 2021 we returned to face-to-face
interviewing in people’s homes. Mainly to
gather data on domestic violence and VAWG.

7. 7
Results
Comparability
There were issues with
comparability for example
those due to questionnaire
changes and the fact that
people in the sample were
older.
However, as long as
certain treatments were
applied estimates were
believed to be broadly
comparable.

8. Future CSEW design
Preferred approach
Building on what have learned
• Panel survey with multiple waves
• Multimodal approach
• Build resilience
• Scalability
• Data Quality
• Maintain comparability
• Content – Maximised
• Inclusive
• Redesign for next retender
2024
Objectives

9. Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS)
Anna Saunders, Head of SCJS
ONS Annual Crime and Justice Forum
23rd February 2022

10. Crime Surveying in Scotland
Timeline
1982 and 1988 years
of the British Crime
Survey coordinated
by the Home Office
1993 first Scotland-
only survey
2008/09 first
Scottish Crime and
Justice Survey (SCJS)
2019/20 latest SCJS
results (published
March 2021)
17th March 2020
face-to-face research
suspended due to
COVID-19
September-October
2020 Scottish
Victimisation Telephone
Survey (SVTS) took place
(published February
2021)
November 2021
fieldwork started for
2021/22 SCJS (to be
published 2023)
July 2023 SCJS
contract with Ipsos
MORI & ScotCen
ends (ITT to be
launched May 2022)
2023/24 first year of
new survey contract

11. Pre-COVID-19: 2008/09 – 2019/20 SCJS
Survey Method
2019/20 SCJS results available here: https://www.gov.scot/collections/scottish-crime-and-justice-survey/

12. 2020 Scottish Victimisation Telephone
Survey
 Survey frequency: the SVTS provides a unique snap-
shot in time during the pandemic. Not comparable
with the SCJS time series.
 Sample: respondents who, when participating in the
2018/19 or 2019/20 SCJS, had agreed to be re-
contacted for the purposes of further research.
 Questionnaire: completed by the interviewer using
Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). For
attitudinal questions, respondents were typically asked
two questions per topic – the first to establish how the
respondent felt on the day of the interview, and the
second to ask if their feelings had changed since the
virus outbreak. Socio-demographic question categories
were expanded to include relevant COVID-19 concepts.
 Fieldwork: ran for a little over six weeks from 11th
September to 26th October 2020.
 Interviews: in total, 2,654 telephone interviews were
completed, representing a response rate of 39%.
 Interview length: an average interview lasted around
17 minutes, though there was variation in interview
length, depending on the respondent's reported
experience of crime.
 Time period covered: respondents were asked about
incidents experienced in the 12 months prior to the
month of interview (the reference period). The time
period covered by the data on experiences of crime
extends over 13 months (from the start of September
2019 to the end of September 2020).
 Weighting: SVTS data is weighted to correct for the
likelihood that people with certain characteristics (e.g.
age, housing tenure etc.) may have been more or less
likely to have taken part in the earlier SCJS survey, and
(or) to have provided recontact details, and therefore
taken part in the SVTS.
 Pre-/post-lockdown period comparisons: it is possible
to identify changes in the volume of crime between
the pre-lockdown period (September 2019 to 23rd
March 2020), and the period following this up to the
end of September 2020.
SVTS 2020 results available here: https://www.gov.scot/collections/covid-19-crime-survey/

13. 2021/22 ‘Knock-to-Nudge’ Multi-Modal
SCJS
Sent advance materials
Phone interview
Web survey
Paper form
Video interview
Web survey
Paper form
In-home face-to-face
interview
(to be added later in the
survey year)
In-home on tablet
Web survey
Paper form
Interviewer knocks on
door ‘Knock-to-nudge’
Recruitment Interviewer-led Self-completion
 Sample: systematic random
selection of private residential
addresses was produced from the
Royal Mail’s Postcode Address File
(PAF)
 Fieldwork period: 12 months from
November 2021.
 Target number of interviews: 6,000
adults aged 16 or over.
 Use of incentives: £10 per person
(conditional on completing main
survey modules).
 Response rate assumptions: 48%
without in-home interviewing, 53%
with in-home.
 Results expected to be available:
summer 2023.
More information available here: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-
scottish-crime-and-justice-survey-return-to-interviewing/

14. 2023/24 SCJS and Beyond
More information available here: https://www.gov.scot/collections/scottish-crime-and-justice-survey/#re-
procurementofsurvey
 Since October 2015, the SCJS has been delivered by Ipsos MORI & ScotCen and this contract is now
coming to an end. A re-procurement exercise is underway.
 The proposed survey design, a continuation of the 2021/22 design, means that the 2021/22 survey
will not be a ‘stand-alone’ survey year. Whilst it is possible that this multi-modal survey design will
be comparable with the SCJS time series, should this not be the case, a continuation of the
2021/22 design ensures that there is at least one comparable survey year preceding the new
contract.
 Learning from the 2021/22 SCJS can be used to inform, optimise and enhance subsequent survey
years following the same design.
 Adopting a flexible and pandemic-resilient multi-modal approach, and increasing choice for
respondents, is expected to increase response rate (when compared with a solely face-to-face
survey design) and thus optimise value for money.
 Other, more radical, survey re-design options entail significant development and lead-in time and
therefore would be best appraised and implemented, if desirable, over the lifetime of the new
contract.

15. Contacts and Resources
 SCJS Mailbox: SCJS@gov.scot
 Twitter: @SGJusticeAnalys
 ScotStat: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotstat-register-guidance/
 SCJS website: https://www.gov.scot/collections/scottish-crime-and-justice-survey/
 SVTS website: https://www.gov.scot/collections/covid-19-crime-survey/
 Datasets available from the UKDS: https://ukdataservice.ac.uk/

16. Measuring Crime and
Justice During the
Pandemic
Joan Ritchie, NISRA, Department of Justice NI

17. Agenda
1. Who we are & what we do
2. NI Safe Community Survey
3. Informing Criminal Justice recovery

18. Who we are & what we do
Police recorded crime?
• Not under ASG remit
• PSNI statisticians
• During pandemic
1. Exceptional MI
domestic abuse report
2. Weekly recorded
crime bulletin later,
incorporated into
regular monthly
schedule
Analytical
Services Group
(ASG); NISRA
statisticians, on
loan to DoJ
NI Safe
Community
Survey
Prosecutions
&
Convictions
stats
NI Courts &
Tribunals
Service stats
Youth Justice
Agency stats
NI Prison
Service stats
Reoffending
Research
function

19. NI Safe Community Survey
Pre pandemic
• Continuous, personal, face
to face interviews
• Provider = NISRA’s Central
Survey Unit (CSU)
• Annual & biennial modules
• ~ 3,500 adult respondents
2021/22
• As 2020/21
• Knock-to-nudge July 2021
• +ve impact on responses
2020/21
• Paused until end June 2020
• Telephone
•  no. questions
• Self-completion removed
• Pre-covid sampling approach
maintained
•  no. responses
• Publication March 22
Crime Prevalence Rate
=
Programme for Government indicator

20. Informing Criminal Justice Recovery
Informing recovery
• Need for ‘real time’
info in early 2020
• MI data dashboard
development to
inform Criminal
Justice Board
2. Courts Business Dashboard
• Courts team
• Measures impact on
throughput of Criminal, Civil
and Family Court business
1. Live Cases Dashboard
• Prosecutions & Convictions team
• Number of live cases within the
system at any point
• Interrogate MIS in a new way

21. Thank you for your time

22. Reflections on challenges of understanding what is
happening to crime during the pandemic
John Flatley
Crime Statistics Production & Analysis
Crime Analysis Unit in HOAI
23 February 2022

23. Going into the pandemic crime trends were encouraging and very early signs
that lockdown may have a suppressant effect

24. Lot of uncertainty about what might happen and little past experience
to draw on…
Early hypotheses:
• Opportunistic theft likely to fall as much fewer people in public spaces
• Crime associated with the night-time economy especially public space violence likely to be
much reduced
• In contrast, risk that private space violence (domestic abuse, child abuse) may go up especially
if victims are cooped up with perpetrators during challenging times
• Risk that with increased use of the internet, especially for example novices of online shopping,
that fraud might go up

25. Lot of uncertainty about what might happen and little past experience
to draw on…
Some concerns:
• How would we benchmark trends in the police figures following the suspension of the
CSEW ?
• Particularly in those areas of crime where we had concerns about upward pressures where
levels of reporting to the police known to be low
• Would the police be able to maintain their regular data supply with new demands coming
from policing the pandemic and with possibly high staff sickness rates?

26. So how were those concerns addressed ?
Stakeholders stepped up to the plate:
• ONS stood up a new telephone-based Crime Survey for England and Wales to fill some of the
evidence gap
• However, this didn’t address some of the concerns so we had to draw on other data
• The NPCC put in place an ad hoc weekly collection of summary stats from forces which they
published on a monthly basis
• Made use of data provided by service providers e.g. on calls/web traffic, e.g. from victims of domestic
violence
• Also put in place an internal count of all murders using open source data and sought to classify as
domestic/non-domestic to inform policy colleagues and ministers

27. So what happened to crime?
Different impact by crime types broadly as predicted:
• Lockdown and other periods of restrictions on social contact had a suppressant impact on
public space crimes including violence and sexual offences
• Big changes in mobility especially reduction of footfall in city centres led to reductions in
robbery and other opportunistic theft
• Significant falls in burglary too – was that simply because homes were occupied for longer
periods than normal?
• These patterns replicated internationally and not restricted to the UK
• Slight fall in non-domestic homicide was offset by rise in domestic homicides
• Indicators of domestic violence generally pointed upwards but rise less pronounced than
might have feared – might there be a delayed reporting effect?
• Levels of fraud did continue to rise during the pandemic but more research needed to
understand whether this brought into scope new types of victims and whether impact
differed from before

28. Measuring justice statistics during the pandemic
Damon Wingfield, Head of Criminal Justice Data and Statistics
Ministry of Justice

29. March 2020
• Focus on outstanding caseload and offsetting recent increases
• From mid March 2020, guidance was issued in courts to safely
operate during the early stages of the pandemic
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2017
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Crown Court outstanding case volume – 2016-19
Source: MoJ Criminal Court Statistics Quarterly

30. Initial impact on criminal courts
• Focus on outstanding caseload and offsetting recent increases
Magistrates’ Court receipts/disposals
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Nov
2019
Dec
2019
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
Receipts Disposals
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Nov
2019
Dec
2019
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
Receipts Disposals
Crown Court receipts/disposals
Source: HMCTS monthly management information

31. Impact on guilty pleas and prioritisation
• Prioritisation of guilty plea cases
Crown Court: defendants dealt with, guilty plea rate
Source: MoJ Criminal Court Statistics Quarterly (C3)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2017
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
Q3
Defendants dealt with Guilty plea rate

32. Impact on sentencing
Monthly Criminal Justice data – prosecutions and sentence lengths
Source: MoJ Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
defendants proceeded against average custodial sentence (months)

33. Latest position
• HMCTS published MI indicates outstanding caseload has fallen
further between September and the end of 2021
Crown Court receipts, disposals and outstanding case volumes
Source: Criminal Court Statistics Quarterly, MoJ
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2017
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
Q3
Outstanding Receipts Disposals

34. Coronavirus 2020 Act
• In addition, the immediate aftermath saw the introduction of a
number of new summary offences related to breaching
Coronavirus Act restrictions
• Breaching emergency restrictions
• Failing to comply with screening requirements
• Offences related to gatherings
• In the first 8 months of the pandemic, 3,500 people were convicted
at court for such offences and nearly all were fined, on average
around £375.
• However, the majority of offences were dealt with via a Fixed
Penalty Notice – over 110,000 by mid April 2021 (source: NPCC).

35. How have we managed
• Our quarterly statistical publications have an increased
focus on pandemic impacts, rather than long-term trends
• This is emphasised in ‘Statistician’s comment’
• Reference to HMCTS management information (released
monthly, 6 weeks following the period to which it refers)
• Additional engagement with both policy and operational
teams to consider emerging trends and potential options to
address these

36. Andy O’Rourke
stats.inclusion@gov.wales
Welsh Government Crime and
Justice Dashboards
Crime and Justice Forum
23 February 2022

37. Background – Thomas Report
• The Commission on Justice in Wales undertook
a review of the justice system in Wales between
December 2017 and October 2019.
• It published its report (the “Thomas report”) in
October 2019.
• The commission unanimously concluded that
the people of Wales are being let down by the
system in its current state.

38. Thomas Report recommendations
Recommendation 50
“Wales specific data should be collected and
published on a sufficient scale to enable
disaggregation, with a view to proper evidence-
based policy development and as a basis for
research”
The Thomas Report made 78 recommendations to ensure the
justice system in Wales meets the needs of the people of Wales.

39. Crime and Justice Dashboards
• 6 dashboards
• Published internally
• Updated as data
becomes available
• All current sources
Annual or Quarterly

40. Crime and Justice Dashboards - content
Workforce
Police workforce,
judiciary diversity,
law students
Legal aid
Number and value of
civil/criminal cases
Youth justice
Children receiving
cautions/sentences,
proven sentences,
outcomes
Courts and tribunals
Timeliness, waiting
and hearing times,
receipts, disposals
and outstanding
cases, pleas,
outcomes
Crime occurrences
Crime and
reoffending rates
Prisons and
probations
Populations,
performance,
caseloads

41. Crime and Justice Dashboards - content

42. Current issues
• Need to ensure current data and presentation meets stakeholder
needs
• Lack of disaggregated data for Wales in key areas of interest to
justice policy colleagues
• Resource considerations
• Stability considerations

43. Road to publication
• Power BI accessibility standards need to be implemented
• Assess feasibility of maintaining current update schedule when
published
• Translation needed for Welsh language versions
• Iterative process as newly obtained data is added and dashboards are
refined

44. Diolch yn fawr am wrando / thanks for listening!
Contact us at stats.inclusion@gov.wales

45. Thank you for attending the
Centre for Crime and Justice Forum
You can keep up to date on all up coming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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