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Juuso Vanhala
Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Finland’s economy gradually moving out of
recession
Bank of Finland Bulletin press briefing
11 June 2024
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 1
Finland’s economy moving out of recession
2
11.6.2024
Finland’s economy gradually moving out of recession
• The economy grew only slightly in
the first quarter of 2024
• Many indicators point to slow
growth in the first half of 2024
• Gradual recovery in growth towards
the end of 2024
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
3
11.6.2024
Finland will return to slow growth
• Growth will be weak in the first half of
2024
• Residentialconstructioncontinuesto weigh on investment
• Consumptionis held backby the lowlevel of confidence,
fiscal adjustmentmeasures andpersistinghighprices and
interestrates
• Near-termoutlookfor exportsis weak: orders,expectations
andcapacityutilisationratesarelow
• Domestic demand will support growth in 2025–
2026
• Consumptionwill graduallyincreaseas purchasingpower
strengthens
• Investmentwill pick up as demandrecovers
• Exportswill improve,but net exports will remain modest
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
4
11.6.2024
Stronger purchasing power will support private consumption
5
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
Alternative scenario:
‘Finland’s economy will improve more than
expected’
by Mikko Sariola, Hannu Viertola, Harri Pönkä
11.6.2024
Investment will recover in 2025
6
11.6.2024
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
Recovery in export markets will boost Finnish exports
• Finland's export market shares will continue to
decline in 2024
• Exports will strengthen in 2025–2026
• Impact of net exports will remain minor
Feature articles:
7
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
‘Impact of the collapse in trade with Russia on the
Finnish economy’ by Heli Simola
‘Finnish goods exports have difficulties in defending
their market shares’ by Petri Mäki-Fränti
11.6.2024
Unemployment will gradually decrease
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
8
11.6.2024
Inflation has slowed, price pressures remain moderate
9
11.6.2024
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
Earnings growth will slow slightly
10
11.6.2024
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
Weak cyclical conditions make it difficult to rebalance public
finances
11
-0.7 -0.9 -0.9
-5.6
-2.8
-0.4
-2.7
-3.8
-3.3 -2.9
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2008 2013 2018 2023
Central government Local government
Social security funds General government net lending
Sources: Statistics Finland and Bank of Finland (forecasts).
% of GDP
© Suomen Pankki, 22 May 2024, 38284@JulkinenTalous EN
General government net lending
11.6.2024
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
Debt-to-GDP ratio will grow sharply in 2024 but at a
slower rate after that
12
11.6.2024
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
Finland’s economy moving out of recession
13
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024
Thank you!
Juuso.Vanhala@bof.fi
Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
14
suomenpankki.fi
11.6.2024

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Acting Head of Forecasting, Juuso Vanhala: Finland’s economy gradually moving out of recession, 11 June 2024

  • 1. Juuso Vanhala Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Finland’s economy gradually moving out of recession Bank of Finland Bulletin press briefing 11 June 2024 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 1
  • 2. Finland’s economy moving out of recession 2 11.6.2024
  • 3. Finland’s economy gradually moving out of recession • The economy grew only slightly in the first quarter of 2024 • Many indicators point to slow growth in the first half of 2024 • Gradual recovery in growth towards the end of 2024 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 3 11.6.2024
  • 4. Finland will return to slow growth • Growth will be weak in the first half of 2024 • Residentialconstructioncontinuesto weigh on investment • Consumptionis held backby the lowlevel of confidence, fiscal adjustmentmeasures andpersistinghighprices and interestrates • Near-termoutlookfor exportsis weak: orders,expectations andcapacityutilisationratesarelow • Domestic demand will support growth in 2025– 2026 • Consumptionwill graduallyincreaseas purchasingpower strengthens • Investmentwill pick up as demandrecovers • Exportswill improve,but net exports will remain modest Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 4 11.6.2024
  • 5. Stronger purchasing power will support private consumption 5 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED Alternative scenario: ‘Finland’s economy will improve more than expected’ by Mikko Sariola, Hannu Viertola, Harri Pönkä 11.6.2024
  • 6. Investment will recover in 2025 6 11.6.2024 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
  • 7. Recovery in export markets will boost Finnish exports • Finland's export market shares will continue to decline in 2024 • Exports will strengthen in 2025–2026 • Impact of net exports will remain minor Feature articles: 7 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED ‘Impact of the collapse in trade with Russia on the Finnish economy’ by Heli Simola ‘Finnish goods exports have difficulties in defending their market shares’ by Petri Mäki-Fränti 11.6.2024
  • 8. Unemployment will gradually decrease Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 8 11.6.2024
  • 9. Inflation has slowed, price pressures remain moderate 9 11.6.2024 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
  • 10. Earnings growth will slow slightly 10 11.6.2024 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
  • 11. Weak cyclical conditions make it difficult to rebalance public finances 11 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -5.6 -2.8 -0.4 -2.7 -3.8 -3.3 -2.9 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2008 2013 2018 2023 Central government Local government Social security funds General government net lending Sources: Statistics Finland and Bank of Finland (forecasts). % of GDP © Suomen Pankki, 22 May 2024, 38284@JulkinenTalous EN General government net lending 11.6.2024 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
  • 12. Debt-to-GDP ratio will grow sharply in 2024 but at a slower rate after that 12 11.6.2024 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
  • 13. Finland’s economy moving out of recession 13 Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024
  • 14. Thank you! Juuso.Vanhala@bof.fi Juuso Vanhala | Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 14 suomenpankki.fi 11.6.2024