SlideShare a Scribd company logo
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
A macro view of employment
in the New Economy.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Suppose you could have perfect
knowledge about the total amount of
skills possessed by everyone in the
country who wants to and can work.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Suppose you could have perfect
knowledge about the total amount of
skills possessed by everyone in the
country who wants to and can work.
That’s this circle.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Suppose you could have perfect
knowledge about the total amount of
skills possessed by everyone in the
country who wants to and can work.
That’s this circle.
One
person.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
And suppose you could have perfect
knowledge about the total amount of
need for work in the U.S., whether
you’re talking about employers, or
market need for entrepreneurs.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
And suppose you could have perfect
knowledge about the total amount of
need for work in the U.S., whether
you’re talking about employers, or
market need for entrepreneurs.
That’s this circle.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
And suppose you could have perfect
knowledge about the total amount of
need for work in the U.S., whether
you’re talking about employers, or
market need for entrepreneurs.
That’s this circle.
One “bundle of
work” (formerly
known as a Job.)
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Put the two circles together, and you
have a way of picturing the work
“marketplace.”
(Of course, it doesn’t function like
most markets, but let’s go with it.)
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
This is the part of the
workforce that’s
“employed” - making a
gainful living.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
This is the market need that’s
not being met – when employers
haven’t yet found the “trained”
workers they need.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
This is unemployment.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
In recessions, employment
statistics look like this.
More
unemployed
people.
Fewer job
openings.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
When the economy is
thriving, employment
statistics look like this.
Fewer
“unemployed”
people.
More job
openings.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
But the actual picture is a little more
complicated.
Just because the employment statistics
look good, doesn’t guarantee you’ll
have a healthy economy.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
(Incidentally, this is
the median wage in
the U.S. - about $26
an hour.)
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
First, there are more people checked
out of the workforce today than any
time since the Great Depression.
They’re called “discouraged from
looking,” and they’re not counted in the
unemployment statistics.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Next, the “need” isn’t evenly distributed;
today, there’s a very clear need for lower-
skilled jobs, and for higher-skilled jobs, but
evaporating need for what are typically
called “middle-skilled” jobs.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
College degree
required.
College degree
not required.
Next, the “need” isn’t evenly distributed;
today, there’s a very clear need for lower-
skilled jobs, and for higher-skilled jobs, but
evaporating need for what are typically
called “middle-skilled” jobs.
Some college or
training.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Finally, there’s the issue of wages. The
average household below the median
income is making far less than it did
before the recession began. So simply
having a job doesn’t mean you’re
making a living wage.
People here are
making less than
they did 10 years
ago.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation
and globalization.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation
and globalization.
Many of these are
the jobs that are
most at risk of being
duplicated by
software and robots.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation
and globalization.
Many of these are
the jobs that are
most at risk of being
duplicated by
software and robots.
Those remaining are
low-wage jobs -
typically paying less
than $15 an hour.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
These are the
next to be
automated.
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation
and globalization.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Let’s go back to the simple model
for a moment.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Whenever there’s been a “big
shift” in the work market – such
as the change from an
agricultural to an industrial
economy – there’s been an
inevitable disruption.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
Whenever there’s been a “big
shift” in the work market – such
as the change from an
agricultural to an industrial
economy – there’s been an
inevitable disruption.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
The people who’ve been
displaced still need to work. And
the “new economy” requires
workers. Governments often tried
to predict what the new demand
will be, and then train the
displaced workers.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
That never worked very well. But
at least it was possible to try,
because the transition was
reasonably slow.
Decades
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
What happens when the
disruption occurs in a blindingly
fast period of time?
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
And what happens when the
people trained for the old
economy aren’t necessarily
equipped to work in the new
economy?
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
In the past, of course, even in
massive shifts like agricultural
to industrial, there eventually
were more jobs.
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
But what if the combination of
automation (software & robots)
and globalization (jobs go
where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just
less paid work available?
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
But what if the combination of
automation (software & robots)
and globalization (jobs go
where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just
less paid work available?
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
But what if the combination of
automation (software & robots)
and globalization (jobs go
where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just
less paid work available?
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
But what if the combination of
automation (software & robots)
and globalization (jobs go
where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just
less paid work available?
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
And what happens when the
disruption occurs in a blindingly
fast period of time?
Years
www.eparachute.com
Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com
All of this defines “the problem domain.”
To envision “the solutions domain,” some of the questions we
need to answer include:
How can we empower millions of individuals to continually
prepare themselves for and find meaningful work?
How can employers - in fact, anyone offering paid work -
commit to actions that increase opportunity for workers?
How can educators provide the kinds of learning
opportunities needed to support those millions of people as
they repeatedly seek or create new work opportunities?
Look for more on solutions in a subsequent presentation.

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A macro view of employment in the new economy

  • 1. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com A macro view of employment in the New Economy.
  • 2. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of skills possessed by everyone in the country who wants to and can work.
  • 3. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of skills possessed by everyone in the country who wants to and can work. That’s this circle.
  • 4. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of skills possessed by everyone in the country who wants to and can work. That’s this circle. One person.
  • 5. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com And suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of need for work in the U.S., whether you’re talking about employers, or market need for entrepreneurs.
  • 6. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com And suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of need for work in the U.S., whether you’re talking about employers, or market need for entrepreneurs. That’s this circle.
  • 7. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com And suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of need for work in the U.S., whether you’re talking about employers, or market need for entrepreneurs. That’s this circle. One “bundle of work” (formerly known as a Job.)
  • 8. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Put the two circles together, and you have a way of picturing the work “marketplace.” (Of course, it doesn’t function like most markets, but let’s go with it.)
  • 9. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com This is the part of the workforce that’s “employed” - making a gainful living.
  • 10. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com This is the market need that’s not being met – when employers haven’t yet found the “trained” workers they need.
  • 11. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com This is unemployment.
  • 12. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com In recessions, employment statistics look like this. More unemployed people. Fewer job openings.
  • 13. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com When the economy is thriving, employment statistics look like this. Fewer “unemployed” people. More job openings.
  • 14. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com But the actual picture is a little more complicated. Just because the employment statistics look good, doesn’t guarantee you’ll have a healthy economy.
  • 15. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com (Incidentally, this is the median wage in the U.S. - about $26 an hour.)
  • 16. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com First, there are more people checked out of the workforce today than any time since the Great Depression. They’re called “discouraged from looking,” and they’re not counted in the unemployment statistics.
  • 17. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Next, the “need” isn’t evenly distributed; today, there’s a very clear need for lower- skilled jobs, and for higher-skilled jobs, but evaporating need for what are typically called “middle-skilled” jobs.
  • 18. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com College degree required. College degree not required. Next, the “need” isn’t evenly distributed; today, there’s a very clear need for lower- skilled jobs, and for higher-skilled jobs, but evaporating need for what are typically called “middle-skilled” jobs. Some college or training.
  • 19. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Finally, there’s the issue of wages. The average household below the median income is making far less than it did before the recession began. So simply having a job doesn’t mean you’re making a living wage. People here are making less than they did 10 years ago.
  • 20. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com That’s complicated enough. Then, along comes automation and globalization.
  • 21. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com That’s complicated enough. Then, along comes automation and globalization. Many of these are the jobs that are most at risk of being duplicated by software and robots.
  • 22. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com That’s complicated enough. Then, along comes automation and globalization. Many of these are the jobs that are most at risk of being duplicated by software and robots. Those remaining are low-wage jobs - typically paying less than $15 an hour.
  • 23. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com These are the next to be automated. That’s complicated enough. Then, along comes automation and globalization.
  • 24. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Let’s go back to the simple model for a moment.
  • 25. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Whenever there’s been a “big shift” in the work market – such as the change from an agricultural to an industrial economy – there’s been an inevitable disruption.
  • 26. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com Whenever there’s been a “big shift” in the work market – such as the change from an agricultural to an industrial economy – there’s been an inevitable disruption.
  • 27. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com The people who’ve been displaced still need to work. And the “new economy” requires workers. Governments often tried to predict what the new demand will be, and then train the displaced workers.
  • 28. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com That never worked very well. But at least it was possible to try, because the transition was reasonably slow. Decades
  • 29. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com What happens when the disruption occurs in a blindingly fast period of time?
  • 30. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com And what happens when the people trained for the old economy aren’t necessarily equipped to work in the new economy?
  • 31. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com In the past, of course, even in massive shifts like agricultural to industrial, there eventually were more jobs.
  • 32. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization (jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks “demand”? What if there is just less paid work available?
  • 33. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization (jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks “demand”? What if there is just less paid work available?
  • 34. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization (jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks “demand”? What if there is just less paid work available?
  • 35. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization (jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks “demand”? What if there is just less paid work available?
  • 36. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com And what happens when the disruption occurs in a blindingly fast period of time? Years
  • 37. www.eparachute.com Gary A. Bolles gbolles@gmail.com All of this defines “the problem domain.” To envision “the solutions domain,” some of the questions we need to answer include: How can we empower millions of individuals to continually prepare themselves for and find meaningful work? How can employers - in fact, anyone offering paid work - commit to actions that increase opportunity for workers? How can educators provide the kinds of learning opportunities needed to support those millions of people as they repeatedly seek or create new work opportunities? Look for more on solutions in a subsequent presentation.