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Fredi	
  Schmidli
Bern,	
  12.	
  Januar,	
  2017
A Lean Investor tells you, why to love
the Problem and not the Solution
Lean Startup Bern
Meetup
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch
http://www.slideshare.net/pragmaticsolutions
Find this presentation tomorrow on
slideshare
2fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Fredi Schmidli
• Economist	
  and	
  BA
• Management	
  Teams	
  in	
  various	
  functions
• Entrepreneur
• Business	
  Angel	
  and	
  Boardmember:	
  www.startangels.ch
• Partner	
  at	
  pragmatic	
  solutions
• Community	
  Builder:	
  meetup.com/Lean-­‐startup-­‐Zurich/
3fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
THE LEAN INVESTOR:
MAKE LOTS OF LITTLE
BETS. EXPECT MOST TO
FAIL.
Dave	
  Mc Clure @http://500.co
4fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Goal:	
  To improve the success rate
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»
• Develop	
  product	
  in	
  half	
  the	
  time	
  and	
  at	
  half	
  the	
  cost	
  (GE)
• Reduce	
  failure:	
  “wrong”	
  product	
  and	
  “premature”	
  scaling
5fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Innovation Framework
6fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem	
  Solution	
  Fit
You	
  validated	
  with	
  MVP	
  and	
  
prospects	
  that	
  a	
  specific	
  solution	
  will	
  
solve	
  a	
  known	
  problem	
  to	
  such	
  a	
  
degree	
  that	
  customer	
  will	
  buy	
  it.	
  
Brant	
  Cooper
Value	
  assumption	
  – test	
  whether	
  a	
  
product	
  or	
  service	
  really	
  delivers	
  
value	
  to	
  specific	
  customers	
  once	
  
using	
  it.	
  
Scale
Product	
  
Market	
  
fit
Problem	
  
Solution	
  
fit
Customer	
  
Discovery
Customer	
  
Validation
Customer	
  
Creation
Is	
  the	
  identified	
  problem	
  real?	
  
Will	
  the	
  target	
  customer	
  pay?	
  
Can	
  the	
  problem	
  be	
  solved?	
  
7fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
From Idea to Problem/Solution Fit
8
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Key Principle
Get  out  of  the  
building and      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9
9fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
10fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Why Lean Innovation?
See:	
  http://practicetrumpstheory.com/2012/02/why-­‐lean-­‐canvas/
11fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
The 3 Phases of Customer Development
12
Source: Ash Maurya, Scaling Lean
What happens here?
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
13fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
14fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Persona Development & Segmentation
understand
the “whys” by
looking at the
customers
behaviors
15
Facts
Factual	
  information	
  
about	
  your	
  target	
  
customer
Pain
State	
  the	
  problem	
  you	
  
believe	
  your	
  target	
  
customers	
  have,	
  that	
  your	
  
solutions	
  solves
Behavior
Existing	
  behavior	
  they	
  
exhibit	
  now,	
  because	
  they	
  
don’t	
  have	
  your	
  solution
Goals
What	
  goals	
  are	
  they	
  
trying	
  to	
  accomplish	
  with	
  
their	
  behavior,	
  that	
  your	
  
solution	
  will	
  do	
  better
See	
  also:	
  http://de.slideshare.net/LeanStartupMachine
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
What and why Early Adopters?
16
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
17fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
How to uncover problems
5	
  Why	
  root	
  cause	
  analysis
à “Why	
  is	
  this	
  a	
  problem?”
“Job	
  to	
  be	
  done”	
  concept,	
  Clayton	
  Christensen	
  (JTBD)
• main	
  job	
  &	
  related	
  Job
• Functional	
  &	
  emotional	
  aspects
• Personal	
  &	
  social	
  dimension
18fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
19fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
BML Feedback loop
Design	
  
experiment
Proposal,	
  Pretotype,
,	
  MVP	
  …Results	
  
Analyse results:
persevere,	
  pivot
or	
  quit?
weeks	
  
not	
  
years
Assumption/
Hypothesis
Run	
  
experiment
20
Source:	
  Eric	
  Ries	
  «The	
  Lean	
  Startup»
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Types of experiments
4)	
  Early	
  version	
  with	
  minimal	
  feature	
  set	
  that	
  
can	
  be	
  “sold”	
  to	
  early	
  adopters	
  
1)	
  Proposal:	
  a	
  document	
  describing	
  the	
  solution	
  
3)	
  Fake	
  demo	
  of	
  any	
  kind
2)	
  Smoke	
  Test:	
  Landing	
  Page	
  to	
  test	
  interest	
  
MVPPretotype
21fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
• Welcome:	
  Set	
  the	
  scene	
  (2min)
• Interviewees	
  demographics-­‐target	
  customer?	
  (2min)
• Describe	
  problem	
  (your	
  hypothesis)	
  (2min)
• Customers	
  must	
  rank	
  top	
  three	
  problems	
  (4min)
• Listen	
  to	
  their	
  world	
  view	
  (15min)
• Wrap	
  up.	
  Sum	
  up	
  feedback	
  to	
  confirm	
  understanding	
  (2min)
• Get	
  permission	
  to	
  follow	
  up.	
  Get	
  referrals	
  (2min)
Problem Interview
Ash	
  Maurya
• Document	
  results
22
Goal:	
  Have	
  I	
  identified	
  a	
  problem	
  worth	
  solving?
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
23fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
24fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
25fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
26fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
Types of experiments
4)	
  Early	
  version	
  with	
  minimal	
  feature	
  set	
  that	
  
can	
  be	
  “sold”	
  to	
  early	
  adopters	
  
1)	
  Proposal:	
  a	
  document	
  describing	
  the	
  solution	
  
3)	
  Fake	
  demo	
  of	
  any	
  kind
2)	
  Smoke	
  Test:	
  Landing	
  Page	
  to	
  test	
  interest	
  
MVPPretotype
27fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Pretotype Example (Explainer Video)
Test	
  vision of
cloud service
offering –
Dropbox
28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QmCUDHpNzE
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Solution Interview
Ash	
  Maurya
• Tell	
  a	
  story	
  -­‐ frame	
  the	
  product	
  (2min)
• Show	
  Concept/UVP,	
  Demo/Pretotype/MVP	
  (15min)
• Wrap	
  up.	
  Sum	
  up	
  feedback	
  to	
  confirm	
  understanding	
  (2min)
• Get	
  permission	
  to	
  follow	
  up.	
  Get	
  referrals	
  (2min)	
  
• Document	
  results
• Welcome:	
  Set	
  the	
  scene	
  (2min)
• Collect	
  demographics	
  – right	
  customer	
  segment?	
  (2min)
29
• Test	
  the	
  pricing (15min)
Goal:	
  Will	
  I	
  build	
  sth.	
  people	
  want	
  at	
  the	
  price	
  they	
  will	
  pay?
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
LEARN:	
  Persevere
I am convinced that half of what
separates the successful
entrepreneurs from the non-
successful ones is pure
perseverance 30fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
31fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
32
Four sequential experiments
Experiment	
  1;	
  10% success
Refine	
  target	
  segment
Experiment	
  2;	
  20% success
Refine	
  target	
  segment
Experiment	
  3;	
  33% success
Experiment	
  4;	
  33% success
qual. quant.
Positive Negative
From Sébastien	
  Sacard
#	
  interviews
10% 20% 33%
37%
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Experiment Report
Why is it relevant?
Quantify your goals
set scope/timebox
Plan	
  how to execute
experiment
Results =	
  Data
Document the learning (validated,
invalidated or inconclusive)	
  
Test	
  value and growth hypothesis first
Move	
  to next experiment
33fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
LEARN: … or pivot
Pivot:  A  change  in  strategy  
without  a  change  in  vision
34fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
35fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
Lean Dash Board (Lean Stack)
Flow
3612.01.2017 fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch
Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem	
  Solution	
  Fit
You	
  validated	
  with	
  MVP	
  and	
  
prospects	
  that	
  a	
  specific	
  solution	
  will	
  
solve	
  a	
  know	
  problem	
  to	
  such	
  a	
  
degree	
  that	
  customer	
  will	
  buy	
  it.	
  
Brant	
  Cooper
Value	
  assumption	
  – test	
  whether	
  a	
  
product	
  or	
  service	
  really	
  delivers	
  
value	
  to	
  specific	
  customers	
  once	
  
using	
  it.	
  
Scale
Product	
  
Market	
  
fit
Problem	
  
Solution	
  
fit
Customer	
  
Discovery
Customer	
  
Validation
Customer	
  
Creation
Is	
  the	
  identified	
  problem	
  real?	
  
Will	
  the	
  target	
  customer	
  pay?	
  
Can	
  the	
  problem	
  be	
  solved?	
  
37fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
The	
  growth	
  assumption	
  – test	
  how	
  new	
  customers	
  will	
  discover	
  
a	
  product	
  or	
  service.	
  Through	
  what	
  engine	
  will	
  you	
  acquire	
  new	
  
customers	
  at	
  affordable	
  cost.
Product Market Fit => Growth
Product	
  Market	
  Fit
Customer	
  is	
  willing	
  to	
  pay.	
  
Cost	
  of	
  acquiring	
  new	
  customers	
  is	
  
smaller	
  than	
  profit.	
  
Evidence	
  that	
  market	
  is	
  large	
  enough	
  
Brant	
  Cooper
Scale
Product	
  
Market	
  
fit
Problem	
  
Solution	
  
fit
Customer	
  
Discovery
Customer	
  
Validation
Customer	
  
Creation
38fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Summary: Saving Potential by
applying Lean Innovation
• Lean	
  Canvas instead of Business	
  Plan
• Identification &	
  priorisation of risks instead of
testing the whole Business	
  Model
• Problem&Solution interviews instead of Market	
  
Research
• Pretotype &	
  MVP	
  instead of perfect Product
• Speed	
  has biggest impact on	
  profit
39fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017

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A lean investor tells you why to love the problem and not the solution - Fredi Schmidli @ Lean Startup Bern

  • 1. Fredi  Schmidli Bern,  12.  Januar,  2017 A Lean Investor tells you, why to love the Problem and not the Solution Lean Startup Bern Meetup fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch
  • 2. http://www.slideshare.net/pragmaticsolutions Find this presentation tomorrow on slideshare 2fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 3. Fredi Schmidli • Economist  and  BA • Management  Teams  in  various  functions • Entrepreneur • Business  Angel  and  Boardmember:  www.startangels.ch • Partner  at  pragmatic  solutions • Community  Builder:  meetup.com/Lean-­‐startup-­‐Zurich/ 3fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 4. THE LEAN INVESTOR: MAKE LOTS OF LITTLE BETS. EXPECT MOST TO FAIL. Dave  Mc Clure @http://500.co 4fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 5. Goal:  To improve the success rate Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean» • Develop  product  in  half  the  time  and  at  half  the  cost  (GE) • Reduce  failure:  “wrong”  product  and  “premature”  scaling 5fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 7. Problem Solution Fit => Value Problem  Solution  Fit You  validated  with  MVP  and   prospects  that  a  specific  solution  will   solve  a  known  problem  to  such  a   degree  that  customer  will  buy  it.   Brant  Cooper Value  assumption  – test  whether  a   product  or  service  really  delivers   value  to  specific  customers  once   using  it.   Scale Product   Market   fit Problem   Solution   fit Customer   Discovery Customer   Validation Customer   Creation Is  the  identified  problem  real?   Will  the  target  customer  pay?   Can  the  problem  be  solved?   7fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 8. From Idea to Problem/Solution Fit 8 Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean» fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 9. Key Principle Get  out  of  the   building and      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 9fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 10. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 10fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 11. Why Lean Innovation? See:  http://practicetrumpstheory.com/2012/02/why-­‐lean-­‐canvas/ 11fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 12. The 3 Phases of Customer Development 12 Source: Ash Maurya, Scaling Lean What happens here? fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 13. Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean»  Workshop,  2015 13fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 14. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 14fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 15. Persona Development & Segmentation understand the “whys” by looking at the customers behaviors 15 Facts Factual  information   about  your  target   customer Pain State  the  problem  you   believe  your  target   customers  have,  that  your   solutions  solves Behavior Existing  behavior  they   exhibit  now,  because  they   don’t  have  your  solution Goals What  goals  are  they   trying  to  accomplish  with   their  behavior,  that  your   solution  will  do  better See  also:  http://de.slideshare.net/LeanStartupMachine fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 16. What and why Early Adopters? 16 2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16% fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 17. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 17fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 18. How to uncover problems 5  Why  root  cause  analysis à “Why  is  this  a  problem?” “Job  to  be  done”  concept,  Clayton  Christensen  (JTBD) • main  job  &  related  Job • Functional  &  emotional  aspects • Personal  &  social  dimension 18fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 20. BML Feedback loop Design   experiment Proposal,  Pretotype, ,  MVP  …Results   Analyse results: persevere,  pivot or  quit? weeks   not   years Assumption/ Hypothesis Run   experiment 20 Source:  Eric  Ries  «The  Lean  Startup» fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 21. Types of experiments 4)  Early  version  with  minimal  feature  set  that   can  be  “sold”  to  early  adopters   1)  Proposal:  a  document  describing  the  solution   3)  Fake  demo  of  any  kind 2)  Smoke  Test:  Landing  Page  to  test  interest   MVPPretotype 21fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 22. • Welcome:  Set  the  scene  (2min) • Interviewees  demographics-­‐target  customer?  (2min) • Describe  problem  (your  hypothesis)  (2min) • Customers  must  rank  top  three  problems  (4min) • Listen  to  their  world  view  (15min) • Wrap  up.  Sum  up  feedback  to  confirm  understanding  (2min) • Get  permission  to  follow  up.  Get  referrals  (2min) Problem Interview Ash  Maurya • Document  results 22 Goal:  Have  I  identified  a  problem  worth  solving? fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 23. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 23fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 24. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 24fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 27. Types of experiments 4)  Early  version  with  minimal  feature  set  that   can  be  “sold”  to  early  adopters   1)  Proposal:  a  document  describing  the  solution   3)  Fake  demo  of  any  kind 2)  Smoke  Test:  Landing  Page  to  test  interest   MVPPretotype 27fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 28. Pretotype Example (Explainer Video) Test  vision of cloud service offering – Dropbox 28 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QmCUDHpNzE fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 29. Solution Interview Ash  Maurya • Tell  a  story  -­‐ frame  the  product  (2min) • Show  Concept/UVP,  Demo/Pretotype/MVP  (15min) • Wrap  up.  Sum  up  feedback  to  confirm  understanding  (2min) • Get  permission  to  follow  up.  Get  referrals  (2min)   • Document  results • Welcome:  Set  the  scene  (2min) • Collect  demographics  – right  customer  segment?  (2min) 29 • Test  the  pricing (15min) Goal:  Will  I  build  sth.  people  want  at  the  price  they  will  pay? fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 30. LEARN:  Persevere I am convinced that half of what separates the successful entrepreneurs from the non- successful ones is pure perseverance 30fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 32. 32 Four sequential experiments Experiment  1;  10% success Refine  target  segment Experiment  2;  20% success Refine  target  segment Experiment  3;  33% success Experiment  4;  33% success qual. quant. Positive Negative From Sébastien  Sacard #  interviews 10% 20% 33% 37% fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 33. Experiment Report Why is it relevant? Quantify your goals set scope/timebox Plan  how to execute experiment Results =  Data Document the learning (validated, invalidated or inconclusive)   Test  value and growth hypothesis first Move  to next experiment 33fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 34. LEARN: … or pivot Pivot:  A  change  in  strategy   without  a  change  in  vision 34fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 36. Lean Dash Board (Lean Stack) Flow 3612.01.2017 fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch
  • 37. Problem Solution Fit => Value Problem  Solution  Fit You  validated  with  MVP  and   prospects  that  a  specific  solution  will   solve  a  know  problem  to  such  a   degree  that  customer  will  buy  it.   Brant  Cooper Value  assumption  – test  whether  a   product  or  service  really  delivers   value  to  specific  customers  once   using  it.   Scale Product   Market   fit Problem   Solution   fit Customer   Discovery Customer   Validation Customer   Creation Is  the  identified  problem  real?   Will  the  target  customer  pay?   Can  the  problem  be  solved?   37fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 38. The  growth  assumption  – test  how  new  customers  will  discover   a  product  or  service.  Through  what  engine  will  you  acquire  new   customers  at  affordable  cost. Product Market Fit => Growth Product  Market  Fit Customer  is  willing  to  pay.   Cost  of  acquiring  new  customers  is   smaller  than  profit.   Evidence  that  market  is  large  enough   Brant  Cooper Scale Product   Market   fit Problem   Solution   fit Customer   Discovery Customer   Validation Customer   Creation 38fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  • 39. Summary: Saving Potential by applying Lean Innovation • Lean  Canvas instead of Business  Plan • Identification &  priorisation of risks instead of testing the whole Business  Model • Problem&Solution interviews instead of Market   Research • Pretotype &  MVP  instead of perfect Product • Speed  has biggest impact on  profit 39fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017