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HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Methodology
Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud
Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data via:
 Adobe Analytics measures 80% of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers**
 Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs
 Analysis based on 6 million average daily orders during November and December
 Companion research based on survey of 1,100+ U.S. consumers and 440+ U.S. retailers that sell products online
 12M Social Mentions From August 1 – October 11, 2017
**Source Internet Retailer 2017.
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Key findings
1. The 2017 U.S. online holiday season is poised to be the first to break $100 billion. Online revenues
during the holiday season are 13.8% higher in the U.S. than last year (compared to 3.8% for all U.S.
holiday retail)
2. Big and small retailers are the winners, beating out the middle. Big retailers have higher order values
and desktop conversion rates while small retailers have the highest mobile conversion rates
3. Consumers are buying more and buying cheaper: for toys and consumer electronics (amongst
others), unit growth is outpacing revenue growth
4. Mobile is key to winning. Fast mobile growth is closely correlated with fast revenue growth, but
desktop orders remain the biggest
5. Novelty and nostalgia drive top product buzz. The most buzzed about products on social include
throwbacks to the 80s and 90s (like Teddy Ruxpin and the Super Nintendo Classic) and new offerings
like the Nintendo Switch
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Online holiday shopping season breaks $100 billion
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
*Source: Forbes estimate of NFL team valuations
**Source: The National Retail Federation estimates overall holiday retail will increase between 3.6% and 4.0%
Online holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec) revenue in
the U.S. is projected to be $107.4B in 2017, 13.8% more
than online holiday spending in 2016
Just how much money is $100B?
• Those two months of revenue are enough to buy
every National Football League team*, with $20B
left to spare
Double digit growth, but for how long?
• Since 2015, online holiday season revenue growth
has been slowing
• Online revenue growth during holiday continues to
outpace overall retail growth (13.8% online vs 3.8%
overall**)
• Online will continue to gain share, but it won’t fully
offset the ”retail apocalypse”
S U R V E Y S AY S
Consumers say they’ll spend 55% of their holiday
budget online, up from 53% last year
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
The big get bigger
Glossary
*The Thanksgiving shopping weekend is Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday
Thanksgiving weekend online revenue growth
consistently outpaces holiday daily averages, but
year-over-year growth plateaus
• The Thanksgiving weekend* generates $19.7
billion or $1 in $6 (18%) of online holiday
shopping
• Cyber Monday is set to remain the overall leader
with both the highest predicted revenue ($6.6B)
and fastest growth (16.5% year-over-year)
S U R V E Y S AYS
More than half of all retailers (51%) report
offering Black Friday promotions, while a third
(33%) plan to offer online door-crashers or
major coupons
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
It pays to be big… or small
Glossary
Small retailers: under $10M annual sales
Medium retailers: Between $10M and $100M annual sales
Large retailers: Over $100M annual sales
Big retail, bigger baskets
• Big retailers (>$100M annual revenue) get bigger
orders on every device
• This contributes to large retailers growing revenue
twice as fast in first half of 2017 vs. other retailers
Small retail, mobile dominance
• Small retailers (<$10M annual revenue) have the
best mobile conversion rate (1.9%)
Average retailers can’t find foothold
• The “in-betweeners” are in a tough spot. Their
average conversion rates (2.4%) fall behind both
large (3.2%) and small companies (2.7%)
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Making the move towards cheaper products
Methodology Based on Adobe analysis of hundreds of thousands products and millions of transactions as measured by the Adobe Analytics Cloud
Online toy sales poised to grow
• During the holiday season, online shoppers
buy more items at lower prices
• 4 out of 5 measured product categories show
higher unit growth than revenue growth,
suggesting that consumers are orienting
towards lower priced products
• Toys and apparel are seeing significant unit
growth (39% and 20%, respectively) while
jewelry trails the pack with a holiday season
decline of 3%
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Top products: consumer electronics
• Ear buds, VR, and home assistants dominate top electronics
• Air Pods, Playstation VR, Oculus, and Google Home lead overall social buzz
Source 12 million Adobe Social Mentions August 1 – October 11
S U R V E Y S AY S
For shoppers that use
social media for help in
holiday shopping, 56%
use social media to get
new gift ideas
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Top products: toys
• Top sellers in toys from 2016 offer new versions in 2017: Shopkins, Paw Patrol, Hatchimals
• Nostalgia is big in toys this year: NERF Guns, Teddy Ruxpin
Source 12 million Adobe Social Mentions August 1 – October 11th
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Top products: video games & consoles
• Top selling video games also pick up on nostalgia: Super Mario Odyssey and Pokemon Ultra Sun & Moon
• First holiday season for the Nintendo Switch is driving buzz
• Super Nintendo (SNES) Classic release is set to be just as popular as last year’s Nintendo Classic release
Video Game Consoles
Source 12 million Adobe Social Mentions August 1 – October 11th
Video Games
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Cyber Monday shoppers are last-minute closers
The Golden Hours of retail
• Three hours on Cyber Monday (8PM-
10PM local time) bring in more
revenue than an entire average day’s
worth of revenue
• Conversion rates reach their yearly
peak the last hour of Cyber Monday
(11PM-12AM local time) at 4x the
annual average
The early bird gets the worm
• Customers that shop in the small
hours of Cyber Monday morning will
find more in stock and are most likely
to find the deals they’re looking for S U R V E Y S AY S
Only 22% of shoppers are finished holiday
shopping by the end of Black Friday, making
Cyber Monday a key day for shoppers
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Mobile shoppers: the x-factor in growth
Mobile is where people shop, and sometimes buy
• High-growth companies see more smartphone
visit and revenue growth than below-average
growth companies (23% and 32% respectively)
Holiday season set to cross mobile traffic tipping
point
• While desktop purchases still account for two-
thirds of revenue, mobile is the starting point
for shoppers: for the first time, consumers will
visit retailer websites from mobile devices
more than desktops
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
S.F., Seattle, and D.C. prove mobile x-factor
Glossary DMA: “Designated Market Area”
Higher average order
value in Top 10
Revenue Markets
$30
0.9%
Higher conversion
rates of Top 10
Revenue Markets
DMAs with high smartphone growth from revenue
see most overall revenue growth
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
The bigger the TV, the bigger the discounts
Methodology Based on analysis of televisions sold during the holiday season in 2016
Glossary Average discount is defined as the average maximum discount for specific TVs at various screen sizes, compared to prices on October 1
• Shoppers for 70-inch TVs can save over $1,100 during the holiday season
• As TV screen size increases, the larger potential discounts increase
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Daily price deflation shows steep price savings on key days
Methodology Based on Adobe analysis of hundreds of thousands products and millions of transactions as measured by the Adobe Analytics Cloud
• Discounts were steeper on TVs in 2016 rather than 2015
• Shoppers saw the steepest deflation (-24.0%, from Oct. 1st) for TVs on Thanksgiving weekend last year
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Shop around on key days for toys, electronics
Methodology Based on Adobe analysis of hundreds of thousands products and millions of transactions as measured by the Adobe Analytics Cloud
Glossary Average savings defined as the average difference between the higher and lowest price for a specific product across retailers on a single day
• Shopping around pays, especially on key days. Discounts from shopping around peaked last year on the weekend
including Cyber Monday for toys (33.0% price difference between the highest and lowest price for the same
product) and electronics (22.0%)
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Apps are part of the season, but e-mail dominates
• App installs are down year-over-year on key dates, but usage is up. App downloads peak the day before key
shopping days
• E-mail marketing still drives revenue over the Black Friday – Cyber Monday weekend
S U R V E Y S AYS
64% of shoppers have a retail app
downloaded on their mobile device but
only 32% will download an app
specifically for holiday shopping
S U R V E Y S AY S
37% of shoppers say e-mail
remains their favorite way to
receive an offer on their mobile
device
HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017
Shape of the holiday season 2017
Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
• Half of all online U.S. holiday revenue will accrue before November 29th
• With 12 days left before Christmas, last-minute shoppers will account for 25% of online U.S. holiday revenue

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2017 ADI Holiday Shopping Predictions

  • 1.
  • 2. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Methodology Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data via:  Adobe Analytics measures 80% of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers**  Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs  Analysis based on 6 million average daily orders during November and December  Companion research based on survey of 1,100+ U.S. consumers and 440+ U.S. retailers that sell products online  12M Social Mentions From August 1 – October 11, 2017 **Source Internet Retailer 2017.
  • 3. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Key findings 1. The 2017 U.S. online holiday season is poised to be the first to break $100 billion. Online revenues during the holiday season are 13.8% higher in the U.S. than last year (compared to 3.8% for all U.S. holiday retail) 2. Big and small retailers are the winners, beating out the middle. Big retailers have higher order values and desktop conversion rates while small retailers have the highest mobile conversion rates 3. Consumers are buying more and buying cheaper: for toys and consumer electronics (amongst others), unit growth is outpacing revenue growth 4. Mobile is key to winning. Fast mobile growth is closely correlated with fast revenue growth, but desktop orders remain the biggest 5. Novelty and nostalgia drive top product buzz. The most buzzed about products on social include throwbacks to the 80s and 90s (like Teddy Ruxpin and the Super Nintendo Classic) and new offerings like the Nintendo Switch
  • 4. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Online holiday shopping season breaks $100 billion Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce *Source: Forbes estimate of NFL team valuations **Source: The National Retail Federation estimates overall holiday retail will increase between 3.6% and 4.0% Online holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec) revenue in the U.S. is projected to be $107.4B in 2017, 13.8% more than online holiday spending in 2016 Just how much money is $100B? • Those two months of revenue are enough to buy every National Football League team*, with $20B left to spare Double digit growth, but for how long? • Since 2015, online holiday season revenue growth has been slowing • Online revenue growth during holiday continues to outpace overall retail growth (13.8% online vs 3.8% overall**) • Online will continue to gain share, but it won’t fully offset the ”retail apocalypse” S U R V E Y S AY S Consumers say they’ll spend 55% of their holiday budget online, up from 53% last year
  • 5. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 The big get bigger Glossary *The Thanksgiving shopping weekend is Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday Thanksgiving weekend online revenue growth consistently outpaces holiday daily averages, but year-over-year growth plateaus • The Thanksgiving weekend* generates $19.7 billion or $1 in $6 (18%) of online holiday shopping • Cyber Monday is set to remain the overall leader with both the highest predicted revenue ($6.6B) and fastest growth (16.5% year-over-year) S U R V E Y S AYS More than half of all retailers (51%) report offering Black Friday promotions, while a third (33%) plan to offer online door-crashers or major coupons
  • 6. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 It pays to be big… or small Glossary Small retailers: under $10M annual sales Medium retailers: Between $10M and $100M annual sales Large retailers: Over $100M annual sales Big retail, bigger baskets • Big retailers (>$100M annual revenue) get bigger orders on every device • This contributes to large retailers growing revenue twice as fast in first half of 2017 vs. other retailers Small retail, mobile dominance • Small retailers (<$10M annual revenue) have the best mobile conversion rate (1.9%) Average retailers can’t find foothold • The “in-betweeners” are in a tough spot. Their average conversion rates (2.4%) fall behind both large (3.2%) and small companies (2.7%)
  • 7. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Making the move towards cheaper products Methodology Based on Adobe analysis of hundreds of thousands products and millions of transactions as measured by the Adobe Analytics Cloud Online toy sales poised to grow • During the holiday season, online shoppers buy more items at lower prices • 4 out of 5 measured product categories show higher unit growth than revenue growth, suggesting that consumers are orienting towards lower priced products • Toys and apparel are seeing significant unit growth (39% and 20%, respectively) while jewelry trails the pack with a holiday season decline of 3%
  • 8. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Top products: consumer electronics • Ear buds, VR, and home assistants dominate top electronics • Air Pods, Playstation VR, Oculus, and Google Home lead overall social buzz Source 12 million Adobe Social Mentions August 1 – October 11 S U R V E Y S AY S For shoppers that use social media for help in holiday shopping, 56% use social media to get new gift ideas
  • 9. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Top products: toys • Top sellers in toys from 2016 offer new versions in 2017: Shopkins, Paw Patrol, Hatchimals • Nostalgia is big in toys this year: NERF Guns, Teddy Ruxpin Source 12 million Adobe Social Mentions August 1 – October 11th
  • 10. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Top products: video games & consoles • Top selling video games also pick up on nostalgia: Super Mario Odyssey and Pokemon Ultra Sun & Moon • First holiday season for the Nintendo Switch is driving buzz • Super Nintendo (SNES) Classic release is set to be just as popular as last year’s Nintendo Classic release Video Game Consoles Source 12 million Adobe Social Mentions August 1 – October 11th Video Games
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  • 13. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Cyber Monday shoppers are last-minute closers The Golden Hours of retail • Three hours on Cyber Monday (8PM- 10PM local time) bring in more revenue than an entire average day’s worth of revenue • Conversion rates reach their yearly peak the last hour of Cyber Monday (11PM-12AM local time) at 4x the annual average The early bird gets the worm • Customers that shop in the small hours of Cyber Monday morning will find more in stock and are most likely to find the deals they’re looking for S U R V E Y S AY S Only 22% of shoppers are finished holiday shopping by the end of Black Friday, making Cyber Monday a key day for shoppers
  • 14. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Mobile shoppers: the x-factor in growth Mobile is where people shop, and sometimes buy • High-growth companies see more smartphone visit and revenue growth than below-average growth companies (23% and 32% respectively) Holiday season set to cross mobile traffic tipping point • While desktop purchases still account for two- thirds of revenue, mobile is the starting point for shoppers: for the first time, consumers will visit retailer websites from mobile devices more than desktops
  • 15. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 S.F., Seattle, and D.C. prove mobile x-factor Glossary DMA: “Designated Market Area” Higher average order value in Top 10 Revenue Markets $30 0.9% Higher conversion rates of Top 10 Revenue Markets DMAs with high smartphone growth from revenue see most overall revenue growth
  • 16.
  • 17. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 The bigger the TV, the bigger the discounts Methodology Based on analysis of televisions sold during the holiday season in 2016 Glossary Average discount is defined as the average maximum discount for specific TVs at various screen sizes, compared to prices on October 1 • Shoppers for 70-inch TVs can save over $1,100 during the holiday season • As TV screen size increases, the larger potential discounts increase
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  • 21. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Daily price deflation shows steep price savings on key days Methodology Based on Adobe analysis of hundreds of thousands products and millions of transactions as measured by the Adobe Analytics Cloud • Discounts were steeper on TVs in 2016 rather than 2015 • Shoppers saw the steepest deflation (-24.0%, from Oct. 1st) for TVs on Thanksgiving weekend last year
  • 22. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Shop around on key days for toys, electronics Methodology Based on Adobe analysis of hundreds of thousands products and millions of transactions as measured by the Adobe Analytics Cloud Glossary Average savings defined as the average difference between the higher and lowest price for a specific product across retailers on a single day • Shopping around pays, especially on key days. Discounts from shopping around peaked last year on the weekend including Cyber Monday for toys (33.0% price difference between the highest and lowest price for the same product) and electronics (22.0%)
  • 23. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Apps are part of the season, but e-mail dominates • App installs are down year-over-year on key dates, but usage is up. App downloads peak the day before key shopping days • E-mail marketing still drives revenue over the Black Friday – Cyber Monday weekend S U R V E Y S AYS 64% of shoppers have a retail app downloaded on their mobile device but only 32% will download an app specifically for holiday shopping S U R V E Y S AY S 37% of shoppers say e-mail remains their favorite way to receive an offer on their mobile device
  • 24. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017 Shape of the holiday season 2017 Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce • Half of all online U.S. holiday revenue will accrue before November 29th • With 12 days left before Christmas, last-minute shoppers will account for 25% of online U.S. holiday revenue