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UK FMCG and Retail Trends
Q3 2016 update
Martin Wood and Tim Eales
Strategic Insight
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
Key UK Retailing Trends
Convenience shopping is still increasing
Promotions are reducing, especially multi-buy. Price-off now
used almost 90% more often than multi-buy
Prices are still falling although we expect them to rise soon
The big four are divesting stores and space
Major retailers are still cutting range, -450 SKUs in last 12wks
Discounters are still expanding, but at a slower rate
Online sales are revolutionising the way people shop
…as a result…
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
Discounter growth
Aldi / Lidl (Value share of Total Grocers)
5.4 5.3 5.0
5.8
6.7
8.3
9.4
10.5 10.8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Latest
quarter
MARKET SHARE - TOTAL TILL ROLL
% Change
£millions % ** £millions % ** %
Total Grocers 25,391 100.0% 25,378 100.0% -0.1%
12 Weeks to 21 June 201512 Weeks to 22 June 2014
Includes all expenditure through main store tills and excludes petrol & instore concessions
Total Till Roll - GB Consumer Spend
12 w/e June
12 w/e 9th
October 2016
Latest quarter
annual growth
rate
10.1%
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
1.1
1.4
-2.1
-2.8
-1.8
0.5
0.2
-2.4
-1.2
-1.4
0.9
-0.4
-0.5
0.6
0.5
0.7
-2.7
-1.4
-0.5
-0.6
2.1
1.0
-2.7
-2.1
-1.3
1.2
-2.5
-3.8
-1.7
-2.0
Value Sales Volume Sales Price Trend
Sales trends: Non-food declines as prices drop with competition from discounters
and bargain stores. Drink boosted by Euros and warmer weather in the summer
Beer / lager / cider
Soft drinks
Food / milk / hot drinks
Pet food
Confectionery
Health care
Personal care
Household
Total Inc. Alcohol
Total Exc. Alcohol
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan All Outlets
% Change v Year Ago
52 w/e 8 Oct, 16
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
-3.6
-0.3
-0.2
1.4
-1.5
-0.5
-1.1
0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-4.0
-1.3
0.3
1.0
-2.1
Value Sales Volume Sales Price Trend
Ambient food
Chilled food
Frozen food
Soft drinks
All food & drink Exc.
Alcohol
Food trends: Ambient foods showing the biggest decline. Water is the
long-term growth driver of soft drinks.
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan All Outlets
% Change v Year Ago
52 w/e 8 Oct, 16
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
-2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.4
-2.0 -2.2 -2.0
-1.5
-2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 -2.0 -2.3
-1.8
-2.1
-1.8 -2.0 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7
-0.9
-
-
0
2
4
6
8
£9,400
£9,600
£9,800
£10,000
£10,200
£10,400
£10,600
£10,800
£11,000
Feb,
15
Mar,
15
Apr,
15
May,
15
Jun,
15
Jul,
15
Aug,
15
Sep,
15
Oct,
15
Nov,
15
Dec,
15
Jan,
16
Jan,
16
Feb,
16
Mar,
16
Apr,
16
May,
16
Jun,
16
Jul,
16
Aug,
16
Sep,
16
Oct,
16
ALL ITEMS EXC ALCOHOL
FMCG All-SKU Shopping Basket Price trends – prices are still not rising
% CHANGE vs. LAST YEAR
Prices have fallen by % since the
price war started, saving the average
family per week
-4.3
£3.96
4 weekly basket of all skus
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan All Outlets
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
40
43
46
49
52
55
Aug, 15 Sep, 15 Oct, 15 Nov, 15 Dec, 15 Jan, 16 Jan, 16 Feb, 16 Mar, 16 Apr, 16 May, 16 Jun, 16 Jul, 16 Aug, 16 Sep, 16 Oct, 16
DEAL DEPTH : % PRICE REDUCTION
% VOLUME SOLD ON DEAL
Less volume sold on promotion overall but at increasing levels of discount
SPLIT
SCALE
4 week periods ending
SPLIT
SCALE
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
Simpler price–off promos are replacing multibuys
- 31% + 6%
% Change, number of promotions by type
(YTD, Q3 2016)
(482,000 fewer) (106,000 more)
x
for
£Y
£
% Volume sales from
Multibuys
%
*Total Exc. Alcohol
52 w/e 8 Oct, 16
16
%11
SOURCE: IRI Promotrend; IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Branded Promotions are becoming less frequent but with deeper discounts
while base prices continue to fall
Number of Trade Promotions
% Depth of Discount
Base Price
% Volume Sold on Deal
% Multibuys
BRANDS OWN LABEL
%-1.9 %-2.1
pt0.2pt0.6
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10
This means branded promotions are more vital to the non-discounter
retailers
Own label share is beginning to grow slowly again but OL
promos are less available and less attractive
Branded Promotions are moving from multibuy to price-off
making it harder to drive volumes
Promotional planning is now key, as deals are less frequent but
deeper than ever, so more expensive
Uplifts are vital to driving trial and sales, and generating ROI
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11
Retailers are stocking fewer Food & Drink items and fewer items overall
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Feb,
15
Mar,
15
Apr,
15
May,
15
Jun,
15
Jul,
15
Aug,
15
Sep,
15
Oct,
15
Nov,
15
Dec,
15
Jan,
16
Jan,
16
Feb,
16
Mar,
16
Apr,
16
May,
16
Jun,
16
Jul,
16
Aug,
16
Sep,
16
Oct,
16
Asda
Morrisons
Sainsburys
Tesco
Waitrose
-12.9
-0.7
-2.3
-10.2
-3.9
Retailers cut range: almost 1300 items lost per average store in one year; an
average 8% drop in range. This is just Food & Drink.
Weighted sum of items per store across food & drink categories
(exc. confectionery) by Retailer
Latest 4 weeks
YoY % change
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan by Retailer
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13
What is the outlook?
Commodity oil prices
have risen in 2016
which will increase
costs
Brexit will bring
short term
uncertainty and
hit growth
Price competition will
continue even though
costs of labour and
imports have gone up
Demand for most
FMCG products
continues whatever
the economic
situation
Guaranteed
disruption and
increased competition
for existing retailers
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14
Remember this:
Prices
• are set to rise as the value of the £ has fallen
Promotions
• Less effective at driving volume – focus on profit
Ranging
• Each physical outlet is stocking less items
Category Trends
• A growth in healthy categories & snacking
Outlook for 2016-7
• Prospects continue to be difficult for growth
Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15
Do you need to know how any of these changes will affect you?
Martin Wood & Tim Eales
Martin.Wood@IRIworldwide.com
Tim.Eales@IRIworldwide.com
www.iriworldwide.com/en-GB/
For more information
and insight

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2016 UK state of the nation update by IRI

  • 1. UK FMCG and Retail Trends Q3 2016 update Martin Wood and Tim Eales Strategic Insight
  • 2. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2 Key UK Retailing Trends Convenience shopping is still increasing Promotions are reducing, especially multi-buy. Price-off now used almost 90% more often than multi-buy Prices are still falling although we expect them to rise soon The big four are divesting stores and space Major retailers are still cutting range, -450 SKUs in last 12wks Discounters are still expanding, but at a slower rate Online sales are revolutionising the way people shop …as a result…
  • 3. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3 Discounter growth Aldi / Lidl (Value share of Total Grocers) 5.4 5.3 5.0 5.8 6.7 8.3 9.4 10.5 10.8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Latest quarter MARKET SHARE - TOTAL TILL ROLL % Change £millions % ** £millions % ** % Total Grocers 25,391 100.0% 25,378 100.0% -0.1% 12 Weeks to 21 June 201512 Weeks to 22 June 2014 Includes all expenditure through main store tills and excludes petrol & instore concessions Total Till Roll - GB Consumer Spend 12 w/e June 12 w/e 9th October 2016 Latest quarter annual growth rate 10.1%
  • 4. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4 1.1 1.4 -2.1 -2.8 -1.8 0.5 0.2 -2.4 -1.2 -1.4 0.9 -0.4 -0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 -2.7 -1.4 -0.5 -0.6 2.1 1.0 -2.7 -2.1 -1.3 1.2 -2.5 -3.8 -1.7 -2.0 Value Sales Volume Sales Price Trend Sales trends: Non-food declines as prices drop with competition from discounters and bargain stores. Drink boosted by Euros and warmer weather in the summer Beer / lager / cider Soft drinks Food / milk / hot drinks Pet food Confectionery Health care Personal care Household Total Inc. Alcohol Total Exc. Alcohol SOURCE: IRI InfoScan All Outlets % Change v Year Ago 52 w/e 8 Oct, 16
  • 5. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5 -3.6 -0.3 -0.2 1.4 -1.5 -0.5 -1.1 0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -4.0 -1.3 0.3 1.0 -2.1 Value Sales Volume Sales Price Trend Ambient food Chilled food Frozen food Soft drinks All food & drink Exc. Alcohol Food trends: Ambient foods showing the biggest decline. Water is the long-term growth driver of soft drinks. SOURCE: IRI InfoScan All Outlets % Change v Year Ago 52 w/e 8 Oct, 16
  • 6. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.0 -2.2 -2.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 -2.0 -2.3 -1.8 -2.1 -1.8 -2.0 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.9 - - 0 2 4 6 8 £9,400 £9,600 £9,800 £10,000 £10,200 £10,400 £10,600 £10,800 £11,000 Feb, 15 Mar, 15 Apr, 15 May, 15 Jun, 15 Jul, 15 Aug, 15 Sep, 15 Oct, 15 Nov, 15 Dec, 15 Jan, 16 Jan, 16 Feb, 16 Mar, 16 Apr, 16 May, 16 Jun, 16 Jul, 16 Aug, 16 Sep, 16 Oct, 16 ALL ITEMS EXC ALCOHOL FMCG All-SKU Shopping Basket Price trends – prices are still not rising % CHANGE vs. LAST YEAR Prices have fallen by % since the price war started, saving the average family per week -4.3 £3.96 4 weekly basket of all skus SOURCE: IRI InfoScan All Outlets
  • 7. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 40 43 46 49 52 55 Aug, 15 Sep, 15 Oct, 15 Nov, 15 Dec, 15 Jan, 16 Jan, 16 Feb, 16 Mar, 16 Apr, 16 May, 16 Jun, 16 Jul, 16 Aug, 16 Sep, 16 Oct, 16 DEAL DEPTH : % PRICE REDUCTION % VOLUME SOLD ON DEAL Less volume sold on promotion overall but at increasing levels of discount SPLIT SCALE 4 week periods ending SPLIT SCALE SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
  • 8. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8 Simpler price–off promos are replacing multibuys - 31% + 6% % Change, number of promotions by type (YTD, Q3 2016) (482,000 fewer) (106,000 more) x for £Y £ % Volume sales from Multibuys % *Total Exc. Alcohol 52 w/e 8 Oct, 16 16 %11 SOURCE: IRI Promotrend; IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
  • 9. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9 Branded Promotions are becoming less frequent but with deeper discounts while base prices continue to fall Number of Trade Promotions % Depth of Discount Base Price % Volume Sold on Deal % Multibuys BRANDS OWN LABEL %-1.9 %-2.1 pt0.2pt0.6 SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
  • 10. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10 This means branded promotions are more vital to the non-discounter retailers Own label share is beginning to grow slowly again but OL promos are less available and less attractive Branded Promotions are moving from multibuy to price-off making it harder to drive volumes Promotional planning is now key, as deals are less frequent but deeper than ever, so more expensive Uplifts are vital to driving trial and sales, and generating ROI
  • 11. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11 Retailers are stocking fewer Food & Drink items and fewer items overall SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Major Multiples
  • 12. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 Feb, 15 Mar, 15 Apr, 15 May, 15 Jun, 15 Jul, 15 Aug, 15 Sep, 15 Oct, 15 Nov, 15 Dec, 15 Jan, 16 Jan, 16 Feb, 16 Mar, 16 Apr, 16 May, 16 Jun, 16 Jul, 16 Aug, 16 Sep, 16 Oct, 16 Asda Morrisons Sainsburys Tesco Waitrose -12.9 -0.7 -2.3 -10.2 -3.9 Retailers cut range: almost 1300 items lost per average store in one year; an average 8% drop in range. This is just Food & Drink. Weighted sum of items per store across food & drink categories (exc. confectionery) by Retailer Latest 4 weeks YoY % change SOURCE: IRI InfoScan by Retailer
  • 13. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13 What is the outlook? Commodity oil prices have risen in 2016 which will increase costs Brexit will bring short term uncertainty and hit growth Price competition will continue even though costs of labour and imports have gone up Demand for most FMCG products continues whatever the economic situation Guaranteed disruption and increased competition for existing retailers
  • 14. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14 Remember this: Prices • are set to rise as the value of the £ has fallen Promotions • Less effective at driving volume – focus on profit Ranging • Each physical outlet is stocking less items Category Trends • A growth in healthy categories & snacking Outlook for 2016-7 • Prospects continue to be difficult for growth
  • 15. Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15 Do you need to know how any of these changes will affect you? Martin Wood & Tim Eales Martin.Wood@IRIworldwide.com Tim.Eales@IRIworldwide.com www.iriworldwide.com/en-GB/ For more information and insight